Federal Liberals Lose A Seat - Liberal MP Erskine-Smith to resign

[CdnFox]

BREAKING: Liberal MP Erskine-Smith to resign to run as an Ontario MPP

Bad news indeed for Mark Carney.  With the resignations that were already on the books such as freeland, this moves him further away from his majority at least till a byelection is held (assuming they win the seat back). 

this is probably going to mean that even if Carney were to find another fluorocrosser he still would have a minority for most of the rest of the spring setting. He is going to be very vulnerable to a spring election.

I don't think Canadians are particularly wanting another election right at the moment so he may not have to face it as long as he doesn't give the opposition any reason whatsoever to claim that he's the one forcing it. But he's supposed to deliver fiscal updates and the like and other things that will likely be confidence votes.

We will see.  But it's not going the way he wanted it to on that front. 

[Politics1990]

i actually like smith and think he would make a awesome ontario premier once  ford gets the boot . carney should of gave him a minister job tbh 

[Barquentine]

14 hours ago, CdnFox said:

find another fluorocrosser

Someone who brushes side-to-side instead of up-and-down?

[Barquentine]

14 hours ago, CdnFox said:

this is probably going to mean that even if Carney were to find another fluorocrosser he still would have a minority for most of the rest of the spring setting. He is going to be very vulnerable to a spring election.

Don't count on it.

https://nationalpost.com/news/canada/carneys-liberals-soar-to-47-and-a-nine-point-lead-in-national-polls-after-davos-speech-leger

"The Postmedia-Leger poll was taken Jan. 23–26, after Prime Minister Mark Carney’s trade negotiations with Beijing and his widely covered speech to the World Economic Forum warning against truckling to “hegemons.” It found 47 per cent of respondents would vote for the Liberals, a significant four-point jump compared to an early December Postmedia-Leger poll.

It also shows that satisfaction in the Carney government jumped nine points to 58 per cent and Carney’s own popularity increased by eight points to 59 per cent in the same period.

The poll shows the Liberals’ lead over Pierre Poilievre’s Conservatives, at 38 per cent, has increased to nine points ahead of the opposition party’s convention that will see Poilievre’s support tested by a leadership review in Calgary this weekend."

[CdnFox]

7 hours ago, Barquentine said:

Don't count on it.

https://nationalpost.com/news/canada/carneys-liberals-soar-to-47-and-a-nine-point-lead-in-national-polls-after-davos-speech-leger

"The Postmedia-Leger poll was taken Jan. 23–26, after Prime Minister Mark Carney’s trade negotiations with Beijing and his widely covered speech to the World Economic Forum warning against truckling to “hegemons.” It found 47 per cent of respondents would vote for the Liberals, a significant four-point jump compared to an early December Postmedia-Leger poll.

It also shows that satisfaction in the Carney government jumped nine points to 58 per cent and Carney’s own popularity increased by eight points to 59 per cent in the same period.

The poll shows the Liberals’ lead over Pierre Poilievre’s Conservatives, at 38 per cent, has increased to nine points ahead of the opposition party’s convention that will see Poilievre’s support tested by a leadership review in Calgary this weekend."

A blip.  When he gets lots of media he gets a blip.  But at the end of the day people still can't afford food and they can't pay rent and nobodys' going to remember the speech in davos in a month. 

At the end of the day he'll still be vunerable to an election.  That doesn't mean they're going to call one, just that he will have a tough time stopping it if they do.   On the flip side he may do a preemptive strike and call one before they can on his own terms, which a lot of people are saying is likely given his campaign like announcements.  That's why they asked him straight out and he studdered and fumbled before saying no he isn't, which makes it pretty obvious he was thinking about it. 

 

[Barquentine]

15 hours ago, CdnFox said:

A blip.  When he gets lots of media he gets a blip.

PeePee should have just got a huge blip then. Didn't happen. No election soon.

[CdnFox]

7 hours ago, Barquentine said:

PeePee should have just got a huge blip then.

Based on what? There's no poling out since his leadership renewal.   

I'm sure we'll see some new polls out in a week or so and we'll see. 

You're really not very good at this are you ?

[Barquentine]

On 2/5/2026 at 5:35 PM, CdnFox said:

Based on what? There's no poling out since his leadership renewal.   

I'm sure we'll see some new polls out in a week or so and we'll see. 

You're really not very good at this are you ?

https://www.biv.com/news/commentary/mario-canseco-poll-shows-poilievre-faces-growing-doubts-even-in-conservative-strongholds-11849377
Methodology: Results are based on an online survey conducted from Feb. 4-6,

Carney’s approval rating remains high (55 per cent, down one point), while Poilievre dropped to 39 per cent (down eight points). On the preferred prime minister question, Carney is at 44 per cent (unchanged), with Poilievre 19 points behind (25 per cent, down six points).

PeePee's really not very good at this is he, kiddo?

But then neither are you.

 

[CdnFox]

4 hours ago, Barquentine said:

https://www.biv.com/news/commentary/mario-canseco-poll-shows-poilievre-faces-growing-doubts-even-in-conservative-strongholds-11849377
Methodology: Results are based on an online survey conducted from Feb. 4-6,

Carney’s approval rating remains high (55 per cent, down one point), while Poilievre dropped to 39 per cent (down eight points). On the preferred prime minister question, Carney is at 44 per cent (unchanged), with Poilievre 19 points behind (25 per cent, down six points).

PeePee's really not very good at this is he, kiddo?

But then neither are you.

 

LOL he got about 1 percent less than Carney did in the election so if he's not very good carney isn't either    And voting intentions remain about the same. 

Carney just had a major PR victory, so sure he's a little ahead right now. The CBC sees to that.  Occasionally you get a little bump. 

But people still can't afford food or homes and they can't eat speeches from Davos.  Sooooo....  we'll see.  

[Goddess]

On 2/4/2026 at 3:02 PM, CdnFox said:

and nobodys' going to remember the speech in davos in a month. 

But.....but....but......it was such an INSPIRING speech!  It galvanized the WORLD!  I mean, it was up there with Martin Luther King's "I Have A Dream" and anything ever said by Nelson Mandela.

Edited February 10 by Goddess

[CdnFox]

48 minutes ago, Goddess said:

But.....but....but......it was such an INSPIRING speech!  It galvanized the WORLD!  I mean, it was up there with Martin Luther King's "I Have A Dream" and anything ever said by Nelson Mandela.

I know and 40 angles got their wings and for that shining brief moment there was world peace and no hunger  

But in a month people won't be able to afford food  or shelter. 

The problem is that the majority of liberal voters are actually retired and or older gov't workers right now and they're not impacted by the change in economy the same way younger people are. 

So they think everything is fine. 

[Nationalist]

8 hours ago, CdnFox said:

I know and 40 angles got their wings and for that shining brief moment there was world peace and no hunger  

But in a month people won't be able to afford food  or shelter. 

The problem is that the majority of liberal voters are actually retired and or older gov't workers right now and they're not impacted by the change in economy the same way younger people are. 

So they think everything is fine. 

Its obvious that Canada is a nation of cowards.

Afraid of Trump.

Afraid of oil and gas.

Afraid of farming and mining.

Afraid of natives.

Afraid of offending Muslims.

Afraid of prosperity.

Im embarrassed of my own country.

[CdnFox]

8 hours ago, Nationalist said:

Its obvious that Canada is a nation of cowards.

Afraid of Trump.

Afraid of oil and gas.

Afraid of farming and mining.

Afraid of natives.

Afraid of offending Muslims.

Afraid of prosperity.

Im embarrassed of my own country.

Yeah but they have a history of getting a little more tough when they haven't got food.

The problem is the older people all have pensions or some species of security and like I said economic downturns don't tend to impact them as much. But a lot of them are fixed income and they are watching those grocery prices rise. Some will be bought off with the GST checks but others realize that's a limited time thing

[Nationalist]

37 minutes ago, CdnFox said:

Yeah but they have a history of getting a little more tough when they haven't got food.

The problem is the older people all have pensions or some species of security and like I said economic downturns don't tend to impact them as much. But a lot of them are fixed income and they are watching those grocery prices rise. Some will be bought off with the GST checks but others realize that's a limited time thing

I would ask "them"...and elder group of which I am a member...why they dont think of their kids futures.

[CdnFox]

2 hours ago, Nationalist said:

I would ask "them"...and elder group of which I am a member...why they dont think of their kids futures.

I don't think they can get their heads around the idea that it's as bad as it is. And before they even get there they convince themselves that somehow harper/ p / any conservative would be worse

[Nationalist]

1 hour ago, CdnFox said:

I don't think they can get their heads around the idea that it's as bad as it is. And before they even get there they convince themselves that somehow harper/ p / any conservative would be worse

How could it be worse?

Hell they've ground Canada down. 

[CdnFox]

30 minutes ago, Nationalist said:

How could it be worse?

 

The WESTERNERS could be running things!!!!!  (icky!)

They don't know. And they don't need to know in order to convince themselves of the LIE. They just need to believe that there is a way it could be worse

[Moonbox]

I know it's late...but:

Nate Erskine-Smith	Liberal Party of Canada	39,804	67.7%

This is a riding that has been Liberal or NDP every election (almost always Liberal) for longer than I've been alive.  

It's like worrying that Medicine Hat is going to vote Liberal next election. 

This doesn't change much.