Liberal Leadership Race

[August1991]

If you have the patience, read this thread.

Reading through it, my general conclusion is that the Liberals still believe (despite all) that they are the Natural Governing Party and the only reason they became a minority in 2004 was because of the Martin-Chretien fratricide. Because this Civil War was not properly resolved, Harper sort-of became PM in 2006.

A party at the King Eddie in Toronto, a new leader, and a patch up with the two old stags will put the Liberals back at the trough.

Wrong.

The federal Liberals (Ignatieff, Kinsella et al) don't understand two things: 1) The Internet and 2) 10 Tory seats in French Quebec.

Canada is changing, but the federal Liberal Party isn't.

[August1991]

I heard portions of Stronach's press conference today in which she announced she would not run. Among the inanities:

"I would work for anyone who would want to work with me," she said. "We'll see if there's a meeting of the minds."

CBC

"I could have raised the money, I was working on my French, but I realized that I was not going to be free to speak my mind on party renewal," said the member of Parliament for the Toronto-area riding of Newmarket-Aurora.

I found this curious remark:

"If there was a one-member, one-vote system, I would run," she said.

So, she's saying she won't run because of the selection method. Huh?

And if it's not one-member, one-vote, what is it? Is she referring to the ex-officio delegates? The youth delegates? The fact that the number of delegates are fixed by riding?

[bTW, the Tory leadership was certainly not one-member, one-vote. The method arguably favoured her bid.]

----

On a separate point, Ignatieff gave a speech in Ottawa on 30 March which you can read here.

Ever since I entered Parliament in January, people have been asking me: Why have you gone into politics? As in: “ Are you nuts?” No, I’m not nuts. This is my country, after all. As a child, I played in the barns of my uncle’s dairy farm in Richmond, Quebec; I swam off the rocks at my aunt’s place in Georgian Bay; when I was a young teacher out in British Columbia, I remember sailing up Howe Sound and watching the sun burn the mist off the ocean; as a father, I rocketed down the Kicking Horse River in a raft with my children...

Sometimes you only see your country clearly from far away. I saw it clearly in eastern Croatia in 1992. I had just crossed a UN check point and had been taken prisoner by a half a dozen armed men high on alcohol and ethnic nationalism. A young UN peacekeeper arrived, as I was being bundled away. He cocked his M-16 and said: ‘We’ll do this my way.’...

For the first time in history ,we now have a real claim to being able to solve problems that have dogged human life for millennia: hunger, disease and environmental destruction. We have the science. We have the money. What we lack is focus and determination. Forty years ago, a Canadian Prime Minister set the standard for international citizenship at 0.7 percent of GDP in overseas aid to developing nations....

There's far too much "me, myself and I" in that speech but there's something even worse. It's so 1970s. Ignatieff is one of those guys who decided he was exceptional, learned a few things and then hasn't learned anything since. All the issues of his youth are still, in his mind, the major issues.

No doubt Ignatieff believes he is discussing "universal truths". He is doing nothing of the sort. He is just debating the faddish intellectual issues he thought about when he was young.

When John Turner ran in 1984, everyone noticed that he was so 1960s. Ignatieff would be the same, but a decade later. Like Pauline Marois, Ignatieff will not connect with young voters at all.

A politician that doesn't keep up with the times is dead in the water.

[geoffrey]

When John Turner ran in 1984, everyone noticed that he was so 1960s. Ignatieff would be the same, but a decade later. Like Pauline Marois, Ignatieff will not connect with young voters at all.

He connects with me, and I'm a young voter. Though I do question his leadershp abilities, he's never been in a position of power or authority, which worries me.

He seems like he's against most of the BS that normally makes up politics though, so for that, I like the guy.

[August1991]

He connects with me, and I'm a young voter.

Maybe, Geoffrey, that's because you're a young fogey.

But seriously, I don't know who the Young Liberals are going to prefer. All I can say is that there will be a sizeable chunk of Young Liberals at the convention.

The Liberals are still a formidable organization and Liberal activists are non-ideological political animals. To me, Stronach's decision to drop out indicates that it takes more than money/organization to get the members and sway the delegates. She couldn't con the savvy Liberal Party members.

For the remaining leadership candidates, organization will matter. That implies that it'll be between Ignatieff and Dion. I think Brison will do reasonably well, and Rae is the proverbial dark horse.

I personally think Brison is a dishonest huckster. The other three (Dion, Rae and Ignatieff) are honest, intelligent and mean well. Let's see how the campaign unfolds.

[geoffrey]

He connects with me, and I'm a young voter.

Maybe, Geoffrey, that's because you're a young fogey.

But seriously, I don't know who the Young Liberals are going to prefer. All I can say is that there will be a sizeable chunk of Young Liberals at the convention.

The Liberals are still a formidable organization and Liberal activists are non-ideological political animals. To me, Stronach's decision to drop out indicates that it takes more than money/organization to get the members and sway the delegates. She couldn't con the savvy Liberal Party members.

For the remaining leadership candidates, organization will matter. That implies that it'll be between Ignatieff and Dion. I think Brison will do reasonably well, and Rae is the proverbial dark horse.

I personally think Brison is a dishonest huckster. The other three (Dion, Rae and Ignatieff) are honest, intelligent and mean well. Let's see how the campaign unfolds.

Of those names that you proposed, Brison will appeal the most to the young voters.

Dion would be a good choice for Quebec, but chances are they'd do worse in English Canada with him at the helm, and so I don't think any Liberals serious about winning the next election will pick him.

Rae would also be weak in most of Ontario and horribly weak in the West. Though I really don't think we'll see Liberals outreaching to Alberta anytime soon.

[August1991]

I forgot Dryden as a possible leader. Dryden is more boring than Harper or Pearson - the Liberals will never choose him.

Dion would be a good choice for Quebec, but chances are they'd do worse in English Canada with him at the helm, and so I don't think any Liberals serious about winning the next election will pick him.

I'm not so sure Dion would be a good choice in Quebec.

Dion is the non-lawyer, post-Quiet Revolution son of a Laval University professor. Dion was born in Quebec City. To be harsh, and to the extent French Quebecers vote tribally, Dion will win in Quebec.

OTOH, Dion is probably Infoman's preferred candidate. Quebec changed in 1960 (to pick a year) in a way that Ireland still hasn't.

Now, in 2006, it is an interesting question who would win more seats in French Quebec: Harper or Dion. [i can't believe that I just posted that!]

----

Sheila Copps had a column in today's Journal de Montréal (sorry, no link) that argued that Stronach quit the race because she couldn't "sell" enough memberships.

I suspect that Copps knows a heck-of-alot more about the federal Liberal Party than I do, but nevertheless I think Copps is wrong.

IMV, the name of the game in the Liberal leadership race is to sell new memberships, and then ensure that those new members vote for delegates who will choose the new leader. This is representative democracy.

Copps would have us believe that Stronach was unable to create new members (and involve new people in her campaign) because the party establishment controlled new membership application forms.

I think instead that Stronach realized that however many new party members she signed up, she couldn't be guaranteed of getting the votes of convention delegates. The delegates will be savvy Liberal operatives: the most ambitious, non-ideological, political animals in Canada. Stronach can't con these people, and she has the good sense to know she can't.

So, who will these 5000 or so savvy, political animal convention delegates choose?

First, a candidate must have the organization to be able to sell party memberships at the riding level before 1 July to influence the choice of the 5000. Second, a candidate must be able to convince the savvy convention delegates that he (no she, apparently) will become PM.

What do I think? Well, this is an Internet forum where I can have fun.

Prediction: It will be decided on the first ballot (although they may have to go to a second ballot for 50%). Dion will win because the 5000 savvy Liberal delegates believe Dion can be a Liberal PM. Why will the delegates believe Dion will be PM? Ignatieff and Rae will not get them Quebec seats. Dion will.

[geoffrey]

August's prediction is Dion... hmm.

I'm not going to disagree. He struggles so much in English though, I'd rather him speak French, it's clearer to me and my French is weak. He'd never win a western seat, Quebec isn't enough anymore by itself.

Though you are right, Ignatieff and Rae will not win in Quebec.

[betsy]

Just saw the candidates speaking in Alberta yesterday...some not officially named yet but already pitching.

Hedy Fry with her "dream and visions"....sounding like Martin Luther's "I have a dream." Could almost see Tim Powers joking over that as to..."yeah right, visions of burning crosses all over Canada. It was not a dream she had. It was a nightmare."

Then there was Fontano with his comic relief about a bull and 10 cows he'd herded as a first job when he was kid.

McCallum with his tirade about bringing down Harper, that the CPC had to change names three times to fool the public....but the next speaker (Bob Rae?), torpedoed that speech when he promised that he will not say a negative word against the other parties (gaining an applause).

It was only Ignatieff who has the magnetism and confidence to run as leader whom I think can be taken seriously. The others are all transparently being the typical Liberal politicians that they are: all talk and just delivering what people want to hear.

[betsy]

One thing about Dion: he can't speak good English! He's worse than Chretien.

[betsy]

So, who drops off first and where do the delegates of that candidate go?

Michael Ignatieff's "vision speech" to the U of O students on Thursday should convert many a nonbeliever.

GO MICHAEL GO !!!

I am also hoping for Ignatieff, although I hope he does become more flexible and open to the public, as opposed to being a hard-ass professor type. I also find it amusing, as August posted above, that Hargrove sees hope in Stronach. I was a fan of hers until I read this, and now I realize there truly is no hidden mind working in her, and that she merely is a pretty face to be used. On a side note, has anybody here joined the Liberal party to vote in the convention?

I am hoping for Ignatieff too....not because I wish to cross the floor....but simply because among all Liberals, he is the closest to the center right. His unwillingness to apologise for supporting the Iraq war is admirable, imv, for it suggests a strong character.

[hiti]

McCallum with his tirade about bringing down Harper, that the CPC had to change names three times to fool the public....but the next speaker (Bob Rae?), torpedoed that speech when he promised that he will not say a negative word against the other parties (gaining an applause).

Bob Rae promised that he would not speak a negative word against the other candidates.... not other parties.

[scribblet]

Just saw the candidates speaking in Alberta yesterday...some not officially named yet but already pitching.

Hedy Fry with her "dream and visions"....sounding like Martin Luther's "I have a dream." Could almost see Tim Powers joking over that as to..."yeah right, visions of burning crosses all over Canada. It was not a dream she had. It was a nightmare."

Then there was Fontano with his comic relief about a bull and 10 cows he'd herded as a first job when he was kid.

McCallum with his tirade about bringing down Harper, that the CPC had to change names three times to fool the public....but the next speaker (Bob Rae?), torpedoed that speech when he promised that he will not say a negative word against the other parties (gaining an applause).

It was only Ignatieff who has the magnetism and confidence to run as leader whom I think can be taken seriously. The others are all transparently being the typical Liberal politicians that they are: all talk and just delivering what people want to hear.

Good points Betsy, and Hedy Fry - sure - they only visions she had were burning crosses on lawns LOL

I just wonder if Rae has a better chance than we think, it is probably only Ontario he has to worry about, if he sticks to his promise about not going negative it will be in his favour. Don't you think people have had enough of the scary, negative B.S. (not that B.S.) they aren't buying it anymore.

[geoffrey]

The Liberals need a candidate that will appeal to Quebec more than anywhere else.

They will not win a seat again in Alberta possibly in my life-time, and I'm likely one of the youngest here.

They will not gain any seats in Saskatchewan.

They already hold all the ethnic seats in BC, and that's all they'll ever win in BC.

The west is long gone. The NDP has polled higher in Alberta than the Liberals.

They must admit they are no longer a national party, they are a Ontario and minorities party only. Or admit that the West is indeed a more distinct society than even Quebec.

That's why they need a Francophone candidate. The only gains will be in Quebec, and considering they have all English Quebec under wraps, that should be their only concern.

Dion is the only hope for the Liberals now.

[scribblet]

Well, from the list of potential candidates, Harper might be in for a long time LOL Any bets on whether Belinda S. will quit politics the next election? She couldn't get the party to bend the rules for a leadership run, so, maybe she'll give up ?

[August1991]

It appears that the Liberal Party has about 150,000 members now - of which 80,000 were added in the past few months. And of these new recruits, Volpe got about 35,000.

Before this campaign, the Liberal Party had about 80,000 members across the country -- not counting Newfoundland and New Brunswick, where the party's lists of lifetime members are massive and wildly inaccurate.

Interviews with party officials and campaign organizers suggest that the recruitment drives may add 70,000 more, including more than 10,000 who joined over the Internet, with no record of which campaign recruited them.

In Ontario, the numbers may climb from about 34,000 to about 65,000, one official said. In Quebec, party officials estimated that they now have 37,500 members -- up about 15,000 from January and about 12,000 from last month.

....

Only Mr. Volpe's campaign released a figure for how many new members it had signed up across the country: 35,000. And while sources in the party and organizers in other campaigns suggest the number may be exaggerated, most agreed Mr. Volpe's recruitment drive was one of the strongest overall, and probably second only to Mr. Ignatieff.

....

On the last day of the recruitment drive, Mr. Volpe's campaign plunked down 4,400 forms for new Quebec members, he said -- a big proportion of the roughly 12,000 new members recruited by all campaigns in the province.

G & M

This has Andrew Coyne believing that Volpe will be a player:

If there is one area in which the Liberals are in weaker shape than fundraising, it is membership. Indeed, the party cannot even say for certain how many members it has. Still, at the end of the last leadership campaign, the party claimed upwards of 530,000 members. By the start of the current campaign, it could account for just 80,000.

The leadership race was expected to boost that total, and indeed it has -- by about 70,000. And of that number of new memberships, exactly half were turned in by the campaign of Joe Volpe. Or so they claim. Yes, they may all be concentrated in a few urban ridings, and no, there’s no way of holding these new members to their vote. But still -- anyone who doesn’t think Mr. Volpe will be a major, major player at the convention is kidding themselves.

I liked this report of the activities of Jim Karygiannis, Volpe's campaign manager:

On Thursday, Mr. Karygiannis hit the road in an 800-kilometre semi-circle with stops in Ottawa, Montreal, Prescott, Ont., Trenton, and Toronto, in a Volpe-campaign "mop-up operation" to pester and cajole organizers. On the highway to Montreal, he drives behind a five-ton truck, smoking a cigar and bellowing into his BlackBerry.

"Those two -- I want you to go in and clean house. No holds barred. I want nothing standing," he tells the caller. "You have my extreme blessing. I want that so bad I can taste it."

Mr. Karygiannis -- called Jimmy K in political circles -- has just given the go-ahead to all-out organizing in two ridings held by Liberal MPs -- although he won't say which ones.

There are ridings in which Mr. Volpe's campaign won't go all out, Mr. Karygiannis says. Sometimes it's a courtesy if the MP is another leadership candidate or someone who might back the campaign later. Sometimes the effort is just not worth it. There are ridings that have big numbers and signing up a few new ones won't help win new delegates.

At a Tim Hortons in south Ottawa, he plays guess-the-nationality as a man walks through the parking lot. He shouts a greeting in Tamil, and discovers the man is from Guyana.

Mr. Karygiannis tells him that he visited Guyana after floods there last year, when Canada provided aid, and the man, who identified himself only as Mr. Ali, starts to chat.

"Let me ask you something. Do you think it's time that Canada had an ethnic prime minister?" Mr. Karygiannis asks. Joe Volpe is ethnic, somebody who immigrated to Canada just like us, he tells him. He asks if Mr. Ali wants to join the Liberal Party, and Mr. Ali gives him a telephone number so that an organizer can call. "And I have a lot of family," Mr. Ali says.

Later, Mr. Karygiannis remarks on his "killer closing line" -- "Is Canada ready for an ethnic prime minister?" -- and explains how it's done. "It takes 30 seconds to zero in on an individual and figure out if you can sign them up, if you've got something in common with them."

G & M

The next step is to figure out how the (new) members will vote for delegates and who their second choices will be.

Note: The Toronto Star offers conflicting numbers:

National party director Steve MacKinnon told Canadian Press the party started out with 150,000 members in March, before the recruitment drive really got underway.

[Jerry J. Fortin]

Who knows what to believe. Volpe is a joke. Dion is too French. Dryden a cold fish. Ignatia an egg head. Gads who the hell else is there?

[August1991]

More numbers (and sour grapes from Ignatieff's staff):

"The nature of what you're trying to do in membership recruitment, it's not sheer numbers, it's having numbers that are placed on a broad band," Ian Davey, Ignatieff's campaign director, said in an interview.

"It always helps you, having sheer numbers, but really what we focused on as a campaign is being organized down to the riding level in every region."

Ignatieff's team is one of a majority that refuses to disclose estimates of how many new members they recruited. But Davey did describe as "incorrect" figures calculated by candidate Scott Brison's people showing that in Quebec Volpe snagged about 4,000, Ignatieff 1,800, Stephane Dion 1,200, Bob Rae 800, Brison 500, Gerard Kennedy 400 and Maurizio Bevilacqua 250.

....

Mike Crawley, president of the Ontario wing of the federal Liberals, said he would not be surprised if the number of Liberals in the province doubled from about 35,000 during the three-month recruitment effort by the leadership candidates.

....

Leslie Swartman, campaign director for Brison, said that while the MP and former cabinet minister only recruited 200 new members in Nova Scotia, his support among existing members is so strong that he claims front-runner status in the Atlantic and "he is the only candidate that can claim a strong regional base."

CanWest

It's hard not to conclude that Volpe's ability to sign up new members has spooked the other candidates. I'll bet Volpe's new Quebec members are concentrated in Montreal and so won't have a big effect on his potential delegate strength. Volpe's new members from Ontario may have an impact though. This would put Volpe into a kingmaker position, which may be his goal.

[Jerry J. Fortin]

But it doesn't really make any difference who leads that party into the next election. The Liberals will lose again, that is a foregone conclusion. Steve will likely not get the majority he wants, but he will win a larger minority government. The split is what is buggering up the numbers here folks. The NDP will get more seats the next time around, and some of those will come from the Conservatives. The Bloc will lose a few seats to both the Liberals and the Conservatives. And the Conservatives will gain a few more seats in Ontario.

In order for the Liberals to form a government Steve has to choke and puke, that is a fact. Until he does forget about claiming his throne people.

[jdobbin]

But it doesn't really make any difference who leads that party into the next election. The Liberals will lose again, that is a foregone conclusion. Steve will likely not get the majority he wants, but he will win a larger minority government. The split is what is buggering up the numbers here folks. The NDP will get more seats the next time around, and some of those will come from the Conservatives. The Bloc will lose a few seats to both the Liberals and the Conservatives. And the Conservatives will gain a few more seats in Ontario.

In order for the Liberals to form a government Steve has to choke and puke, that is a fact. Until he does forget about claiming his throne people.

I think Afghanistan is what could hurt the Conservatives. While Canadians might be supportive of the troops, they might just be nervous enough to leave the government in a minority situation because of the belief that Harper might get Canada bogged down there.

[Charles Anthony]

Who knows what to believe. Volpe is a joke. Dion is too French. Dryden a cold fish. Ignatia an egg head. Gads who the hell else is there?

They all sound like candidates to carry on the Trudeaumaniacal torch. If only the Liberals could find a person to possess all of those characteristics....

they might just be nervous enough to leave the government in a minority situation

This is a not a prudent argument. It comes up all of the time but it makes no sense.

How can Canadians leave a federal government in a minority situation?

People vote for a candidate to win. The distance between one person's vote and how it translates into a winning federal government is so convoluted.

Granted, when people vote, they do think of what other people are voting, to make their final decision before they scratch and save -- I mean, vote at the ballot box. However, they can not possibly make a decision to vote for (or against) a candidate to create an overall minority federal government. That sort of decision-making requires balancing an exceptional amount of information.

You can say, that the end result, after all of the marbles are counted, will lead to a minority government, but to attribute a collusive decision-making process to each Canadian is not a practical argument.

[jdobbin]

Who knows what to believe. Volpe is a joke. Dion is too French. Dryden a cold fish. Ignatia an egg head. Gads who the hell else is there?

They all sound like candidates to carry on the Trudeaumaniacal torch. If only the Liberals could find a person to possess all of those characteristics....

they might just be nervous enough to leave the government in a minority situation

This is a not a prudent argument. It comes up all of the time but it makes no sense.

How can Canadians leave a federal government in a minority situation?

People vote for a candidate to win. The distance between one person's vote and how it translates into a winning federal government is so convoluted.

Granted, when people vote, they do think of what other people are voting, to make their final decision before they scratch and save -- I mean, vote at the ballot box. However, they can not possibly make a decision to vote for (or against) a candidate to create an overall minority federal government. That sort of decision-making requires balancing an exceptional amount of information.

You can say, that the end result, after all of the marbles are counted, will lead to a minority government, but to attribute a collusive decision-making process to each Canadian is not a practical argument.

I guess to be precise, if Harper hopes to makes gain in Quebec, the situation in Afghanistan has to seem like it will end.

Harper can't win anymore seats in Alberta, if you know what I mean. He could win more in Ontario but then he has to win over the cities that also share Quebec's sense of unease about Afghanistan.

That's what I mean when I say that Canadians might not want to take the plunge to full out support for a majority government. We've seen this sort of hedging a lot in Canada. Vote Tory provincially, Liberal nationally or vice versa and throw in the occassional NDP government just to be contrary.

[Jerry J. Fortin]

The Liberals will not form the next government , so the leadership race will not choose the next Prime Minister. With that in mind, all of the effort in selling memberships is still a huge advantage to the party. It could help to retain its position, but don't expect any gains. The Tories have yet to start up the witchhunt they promised and we will have to wait for the leadership race for that plan to grow some legs but it will happen anyway.

Afganistan is neither here nor there because the govenment sought and received a mandate in the Commons for that effort and it would not go well on parties to flip flip on that issue. The issues at play for the next election will be found to be introduced in the fall sitting. Provided that the government survives that the next opportunity is the spring budget. If the government is serious about the military build up it will be evident right then and there. The public will not vote against arming the military unless the government cuts programs and services to do it. The whole fiscal imbalance situation can be played to the advantage of the government with this in mind. Funding could be realized through the diversion of the federal surplus into the military, and the government could actually claim that it is the only way that they can find to do the job, and they won't be lying about it.

[August1991]

The Liberals will not form the next government , so the leadership race will not choose the next Prime Minister. With that in mind, all of the effort in selling memberships is still a huge advantage to the party. It could help to retain its position, but don't expect any gains. The Tories have yet to start up the witchhunt they promised and we will have to wait for the leadership race for that plan to grow some legs but it will happen anyway.

Jerry, I think you're missing the point. Go back and read this thread. The purpose of selling memberships is to influence delegate selection and hence influence the choice of Liberal leader. If Volpe has brought in 25% of all current Liberal party members, then ipso facto Volpe's a player. That matters.

As to who will win the next election, I hope that Harper is not as certain as you seem to be.

Afganistan is neither here nor there because the govenment sought and received a mandate in the Commons for that effort and it would not go well on parties to flip flip on that issue. The issues at play for the next election will be found to be introduced in the fall sitting. Provided that the government survives that the next opportunity is the spring budget. If the government is serious about the military build up it will be evident right then and there. The public will not vote against arming the military unless the government cuts programs and services to do it.

Afghanistan and the increased military spending are of a piece. Already, there is noise in French Quebec about the billions being spent for military trucks and planes while millions are lacking for cinema and books. French Quebec, like the US, has a strong streak of isolationism. This question though rightly deserves another thread.

[August1991]

Gerard Kennedy, a former cabinet minister in Ontario, appears to be a surprising front-runner in the race to sign up new Liberals prior to the leadership vote, according to preliminary information obtained by the Star.

...

One Liberal said it shouldn't be surprising Kennedy did so well in attracting new members. In British Columbia, for example, he pulled in 4,000-plus new members by the deadline, compared with 1,500 each for his nearest competitors, Rae and MP Stéphane Dion.

...

B.C. party president Jamie Elmhirst said he expects the final tally will add up to 11,000 new members in his province, including both Internet sign-ups and those brought in by the various leadership campaigns. After Kennedy, Rae and Dion, preliminary figures put Volpe next in that province with 1,000 new members, followed by Ignatieff with 750.

...

In Ontario, the most populous province, one Liberal said, without giving any numbers, that the party expected to double its membership. The source placed Ignatieff and Kennedy in the top two (without picking a leader), with Volpe's strong organization placing him a close third. A drop-off followed, with the group of Rae, Dion and MP Ken Dryden (York Centre) coming in next. Then came MPs Maurizio Bevilacqua (Vaughan) and Scott Brison (Kings-Hants), with Toronto lawyer Martha Hall Findlay, Vancouver Centre MP Hedy Fry and St. Paul's MP Carolyn Bennett trailing badly.

In Quebec, party vice-president Steve Pinkus said that information he's getting shows Volpe in the lead for new members, with about 4,000, followed by Ignatieff with more than 2,000, Dion with 1,300, Rae with 800, Brison with 600 and Kennedy around 400.

...

In Alberta, party president Adam Campbell couldn't provide numbers — other than an estimated 6,000 new members — but said Kennedy and Ignatieff had signed up the most new members, followed by Volpe.

Saskatchewan party official Rod Ermel said Rae was running first in his province with about 500 new members, followed by Ignatieff and Kennedy, neck-and-neck with 350, Bevilacqua and Volpe with 200 and Brison with 100 to 150.

He said several campaigns have essentially no organization on the ground there. They include: Dryden, Dion, Bennett, Fry and Hall Findlay.

Toronto Star

These provincial lists should be public tomorrow so overall numbers will become known.

It appears that the first ballot will be well dispersed.

[August1991]

A frenzied three-month recruitment drive by 11 leadership hopefuls has doubled the Liberal party's national membership to almost 185,000.

...

Yet, in their eagerness to demonstrate momentum, the camps are claiming to have cumulatively sold well more than 92,500 new memberships. Indeed, the claims from just three of the contenders exceed that number.

Immediately after the July 4 cut-off for signing up new members who'll be eligible to participate in the election of the new leader, Joe Volpe's camp announced that it had sold 35,000 to 37,000 memberships, putting the Toronto MP in the lead.

Since then, organizers for Gerard Kennedy, the former Ontario education minister, have insisted they outsold Volpe while some party insiders insist rookie Toronto MP and acclaimed academic Michael Ignatieff has done better than either of them.

Organizers for Stephane Dion, the sole Quebec candidate, claim anywhere from 16,000 to 23,000 memberships sold. Toronto MP Maurizio Bevilacqua's team is claiming 9,000.

...

But Goldbloom insists Rae recruited 10,000 or "close to a third" of the new members in the province, proof that "Bob can and is winning support in Ontario."

Nationwide, Goldbloom estimates the Rae team recruited more than 17,000 new members, including more than 3,000 in British Columbia.

The B.C. numbers have been hotly disputed since Jamie Elmhirst, president of the B.C. wing of the party, told a reporter earlier this week that Kennedy had signed up 4,000 members in the province, compared to 1,500 for his nearest competitors, Rae and Dion.

....

By province, the preliminary numbers show Ontario is the party's strongest bastion, with 76,500 members. Quebec follows with 37,570, B.C. with 19,665, Nova Scotia with 16,140, Alberta with 9,200, Prince Edward Island with 8,870, Manitoba with 7,500, New Brunswick with 4,669, Saskatchewan with 2,700 and Newfoundland and Labrador with 1,500.

Toronto Star

Clearly, someone's numbers don't add up - or IOW, the Liberals are engaging in understandable hype.

Overall, I would say that only adding 90,000 members is rather weak. The Tories, with only three leadership candidates, managed to sign up 100,000 new members (adding to the previous 140,000) in Feb 2004.

9200 members in Alberta - or about 5% of the whole. Yet Alberta will send about 10% of the delegates to the convention.