Vegas Odds on the 2024 Election

[WestCanMan]

Newsom surged after the debate. He went from +900 to +614. 

Trump is up to a 59% chance and Biden down to 33%: https://www.thelines.com/odds/election/

• Former President Donald Trump and incumbent President Joe Biden are the election betting favorites for 2024. Current Trump election odds have him at -145 to win the Presidency. Trump has a 59% chance of winning following the June 27 debate. Incument President Joe Biden is +203 to become President again and owns a 33% chance of winning again. Gavin Newsom, the likely choice to replace Biden as the Democratic nominee if the party pivots, saw his Presidential odds surge following the debate as he is now +614 to win.

[gatomontes99]

Sure things rarely exist in betting. Trump beating Biden is as close as it gets.

You know that the last Maine and Minnesota polls had them tied? Even without Maine or Minnesota, Trump has such a big lead he could lose Texas and still win. Think about that.

[WestCanMan]

I'd love to believe that Biden will be the DNC nominee this November but I've never believed it to be likely.

In Dec 2020 I would have pegged the chances of Joe running as the 2024 DNC nominee at 0.00%, and that rose to a peak of about 35% when the Dems commenced Operation Cheap Fake, but now that the Dems are openly acknowledging that Joe is a vegetable, the amount of cheating, lying and crimes that it would take to get his carcass back into the oval office would make even the FBI blush.

Outwardly we can all see the NYT, CNN and the Dems making noise, but internally there are raging thunderstorms. Anyone dumb enough to believe that "the US gov't was almost overthrown" on J6 will be screaming at the top of their lungs behind closed doors. True blue Dems want to see Joe as nominee as badly as they want rectal cancer.

The ONLY person who wants Joe to be POTUS again is the teleprompter guy. 

[CdnFox]

6 minutes ago, WestCanMan said:

The ONLY person who wants Joe to be POTUS again is the teleprompter guy. 

Best line of the month   Trump totally should steal that for the next debate  

 

The challenge though is they're right back to the same problem. Biden became the nominee because there was no other real choice. Bernie Sanders was who was going to win if they didn't parachute biden in at the last minute after he had already failed.

They can't run Bernie. So who? Kamala harris? There's no universe where she beats trump. She couldn't even beat Biden in the nomination. People would hear that creepy laugh once and be like oh hell no. Buttigeig,  that's for sure.  Nancy's past her prime? Bring back clinton for round 2?

There's no point replacing biden because he'll lose with someone else who will also lose.

I think at this point they should shut up, hope he can make it to the finish line without dying, and focus on winning control of the house and the senate. 

[WestCanMan]

2 minutes ago, CdnFox said:

Best line of the month   Trump totally should steal that for the next debate  

 

The challenge though is they're right back to the same problem. Biden became the nominee because there was no other real choice. Bernie Sanders was who was going to win if they didn't parachute biden in at the last minute after he had already failed.

They can't run Bernie. So who? Kamala harris? There's no universe where she beats trump. She couldn't even beat Biden in the nomination. People would hear that creepy laugh once and be like oh hell no. Buttigeig,  that's for sure.  Nancy's past her prime? Bring back clinton for round 2?

There's no point replacing biden because he'll lose with someone else who will also lose.

I think at this point they should shut up, hope he can make it to the finish line without dying, and focus on winning control of the house and the senate. 

Newsom.

The only silver lining in a Newsom presidency would be to see Trudeau get out-smarmied at G8's.

[CdnFox]

2 minutes ago, WestCanMan said:

Newsom.

The only silver lining in a Newsom presidency would be to see Trudeau get out-smarmied at G8's.

I think that would be a very tough row to hoe. I don't think he's particularly widely known outside of California, and considering the disaster inside California there would be an infinite pile of ammo to use against him.  He would have to establish himself, become a household name in just a month or two, somehow convince people that his previous track record isn't a problem and he'll do better this time (unless you think san francisco and cali are being run well ), then develop policy and sell it to the people. 

And then there's the donors. 

There just isn't the time, and he's got far too much baggage. IF this was even 6 months ago then MAYBE  but even then it wouldn't have been easy.

 

[WestCanMan]

14 minutes ago, CdnFox said:

I think that would be a very tough row to hoe. I don't think he's particularly widely known outside of California, and considering the disaster inside California there would be an infinite pile of ammo to use against him.  He would have to establish himself, become a household name in just a month or two, somehow convince people that his previous track record isn't a problem and he'll do better this time (unless you think san francisco and cali are being run well ), then develop policy and sell it to the people. 

I agree that would make sense if they were replacing "Vote for Joe because he's the best" with "Vote for Gavin because he's the best", but they'd just keep on saying "Vote against Trump", which is all that they've been saying this whole time.

And TBH, Newsom doesn't have a proven track record as a failure as POTUS either, so he'd arguably be further ahead on day 1. 

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And then there's the donors. 

The only donors that matter are CNN, MSNBC, NBC, NYT, WashPo, etc. They can devote their networks to Trump 24/7, just like they did with Biden. 

Can you imagine what it would cost to buy off that many legitimate news orgs with mere campaign dollars? It would be $1Trillion in advertising.  

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There just isn't the time, and he's got far too much baggage. IF this was even 6 months ago then MAYBE  but even then it wouldn't have been easy.

I think that Newsom would automatically start off with all of the DNC voters who are currently committed to voting for Biden, plus more. 

Biden has "All of the DNC members minus 20%",  I think that Newsom would start off with "All of the DNC members minus 10%". I get that some black people would want Kamala to be the next nominee, but not many. She's so useless that she makes Joe look like a stud. 

[CdnFox]

10 minutes ago, WestCanMan said:

I agree that would make sense if they were replacing "Vote for Joe because he's the best" with "Vote for Gavin because he's the best", but they'd just keep on saying "Vote against Trump", which is all that they've been saying this whole time.

And TBH, Newsom doesn't have a proven track record as a failure as POTUS either, so he'd arguably be further ahead on day 1. 

The only donors that matter are CNN, MSNBC, NBC, NYT, WashPo, etc. They can devote their networks to Trump 24/7, just like they did with Biden. 

Can you imagine what it would cost to buy off that many legitimate news orgs with mere campaign dollars? It would be $1Trillion in advertising.  

I think that Newsom would automatically start off with all of the DNC voters who are currently committed to voting for Biden, plus more. 

Biden has "All of the DNC members minus 20%",  I think that Newsom would start off with "All of the DNC members minus 10%". I get that some black people would want Kamala to be the next nominee, but not many. She's so useless that she makes Joe look like a stud. 

I think you're grossly overestimating his chances, and grossly underestimating the need for donor dollars. 

I think the dem voters would just stay home and plan to pout for the next 4 years.  And i think it would create massive internal fighting in the party no matter how it played out even if they tried to do it. 

We'll see.  If i were the dems i'd be very very very focused on winning the house and the senate right now. 

[Deluge]

19 hours ago, WestCanMan said:

Newsom surged after the debate. He went from +900 to +614. 

Trump is up to a 59% chance and Biden down to 33%: https://www.thelines.com/odds/election/

• Former President Donald Trump and incumbent President Joe Biden are the election betting favorites for 2024. Current Trump election odds have him at -145 to win the Presidency. Trump has a 59% chance of winning following the June 27 debate. Incument President Joe Biden is +203 to become President again and owns a 33% chance of winning again. Gavin Newsom, the likely choice to replace Biden as the Democratic nominee if the party pivots, saw his Presidential odds surge following the debate as he is now +614 to win.

Trump is leading in all but one of the battleground states. This should be a landslide win for the Donald.

[impartialobserver]

I have been saying since last year that I think that Trump wins in 2024. It is a simple matter of variability. Close defeats can somewhat easily be changed into close wins. Biden is simply uninspiring. In todays day and age of style over substance... he has no style. 

[WestCanMan]

24 minutes ago, impartialobserver said:

Biden is simply uninspiring. In todays day and age of style over substance... he has no style. 

Biden's weakness is that he has no style?

Is the "One Flew Over the Cuckoo's Nest" groove not a style? Is constantly losing not a style? 

People who don't like large foreign wars, even when they're proxy wars, don't like Biden. People who don't like runaway inflation don't like Biden. People who don't like being lied to on every major issue don't like Biden. People who don't like vaccine mandates don't like Biden. People who don't like wide-open borders don't like Biden. People who would like to have a leader that can speak English and walk up stairs don't like Biden. 

Style is a side dish. No one says "I'd love the steak but I don't like mixed greens, so I'll get the liver, because it comes with a potato." 

Trudeau has style in abundance and Canadians loathe him. Newsom has style and he was almost recalled. Kamala has style and she's basically a donkey with a nice throat. AOC might be the most stylish politician in America and she's the new butt of traditionally blond jokes. 

[impartialobserver]

Just now, WestCanMan said:

Biden's weakness is that he has no style?

Is the "One Flew Over the Cuckoo's Nest" groove not a style? Is constantly losing not a style? 

People who don't like large foreign wars, even when they're proxy wars, don't like Biden. People who don't like runaway inflation don't like Biden. People who don't like being lied to on every major issue don't like Biden. People who don't like vaccine mandates don't like Biden. People who don't like wide-open borders don't like Biden. People who would like to have a leader that can speak English and walk up stairs don't like Biden. 

Style is a side dish. No one says "I'd love the steak but I don't like mixed greens, so I'll get the liver, because it comes with a potato." 

Trudeau has style in abundance and Canadians loathe him. Newsom has style and he was almost recalled. Kamala has style and she's basically a donkey with a nice throat. AOC might be the most stylish politician in America and she's the new butt of traditionally blond jokes. 

I try to keep things short and succinct. The "style" element is that Biden has no charisma and is about as inspiring as watching paint dry on a wall at lunch in Fresno. He is basically the Clear Eyes guy except that he drones on for hours instead of 30 to 45 seconds. 

[WestCanMan]

3 minutes ago, impartialobserver said:

I try to keep things short and succinct. The "style" element is that Biden has no charisma and is about as inspiring as watching paint dry on a wall at lunch in Fresno. He is basically the Clear Eyes guy except that he drones on for hours instead of 30 to 45 seconds. 

And the reason that he has no style is that panache is like humour: you gotta be on your A game to have it. You need some oomph to have it. Some jam. You have to be a step above the rest. Biden doesn't do steps. Biden needs a nap. 24/7.

[impartialobserver]

2 minutes ago, WestCanMan said:

And the reason that he has no style is that panache is like humour: you gotta be on your A game to have it. You need some oomph to have it. Some jam. You have to be a step above the rest. Biden doesn't do steps. Biden needs a nap. 24/7.

Thanks for restating my points. Its really hard to get someone to pay attention (especially the younger generation) if you sound like you are nodding off after having a few too many drinks. It is pretty sad that with as great of a country that the US is.... that the two candidates for the highest office are this uninspiring. 

[WestCanMan]

Just now, impartialobserver said:

Thanks for restating my points. Its really hard to get someone to pay attention (especially the younger generation) if you sound like you are nodding off after having a few too many drinks. It is pretty sad that with as great of a country that the US is.... that the two candidates for the highest office are this uninspiring. 

The problem isn't that his condition lacks style, the problem is that his condition is dangerous. Dementia victims are quick to irrational outbursts of anger and they're easily taken advantage of, among other things. America's enemies see a huge opportunity here. The cat's only there in body, not in mind, and the rest of the world figured that out 4 years before CNN did.  

[impartialobserver]

1 minute ago, WestCanMan said:

The problem isn't that his condition lacks style, the problem is that his condition is dangerous. Dementia victims are quick to irrational outbursts of anger and they're easily taken advantage of, among other things. America's enemies see a huge opportunity here. The cat's only there in body, not in mind, and the rest of the world figured that out 4 years before CNN did.  

Hence, the need for a younger, more vibrant candidate. Let me give you a hint about modern Americans.. it matters more to them that their candidate wins than any thing that he/she has to say. Why do we Biden? Because folks think that he can win.. now as to what he will do after winning. Pffft... whatever. Yet another reason that I will vote third party yet again and have done so since 1996. 

[WestCanMan]

6 minutes ago, impartialobserver said:

Hence, the need for a younger, more vibrant candidate.

Not "vibrant". "Capable". The main quality you'd want a politician to have. 

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Let me give you a hint about modern Americans.. it matters more to them that their candidate wins than any thing that he/she has to say.

No, they want their candidate to win because they want their own agenda to succeed. Either they want wokeness and ninth-month abortions or they want a secure border and a strong economy. 

Quote

Why do we Biden? Because folks think that he can win.. now as to what he will do after winning. Pffft... whatever.

I told you what they want from Biden: woke BS. Everybody gets a prize. 

[impartialobserver]

Just now, WestCanMan said:

Not "vibrant". "Capable". The main quality you'd want a politician to have. 

No, they want their candidate to win because they want their own agenda to succeed. Either they want wokeness and ninth-month abortions or they want a secure border and a strong economy. 

I told you what they want from Biden: woke BS. Everybody gets a prize. 

I would rather have vital, alive, vibrant, and therefore capable then sleepy and uninspiring. 

Well.. the candidate has to win first. to have a great candidate who does not win is not even worth lifting a finger for. Great ideas, great platform.. but does not win.. who are they again? This is why third party candidates have zero chance. They are viewed as long shots and hence why even bother with them 

[WestCanMan]

11 minutes ago, impartialobserver said:

I would rather have vital, alive, vibrant, and therefore capable then sleepy and uninspiring. 

Luckily for you that suddenly came en vogue. The rest of us were waiting on that a bit longer than you were. 

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Well.. the candidate has to win first. to have a great candidate who does not win is not even worth lifting a finger for. Great ideas, great platform.. but does not win.. who are they again?

Regardless of that, people want the guy to win who pushes the agenda they like. Now we've seen how awesome Biden's agenda was for America and it looks like it was a huge mistake to elect him. 

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This is why third party candidates have zero chance. They are viewed as long shots and hence why even bother with them 

Money, power and influence just called. They were gut-laughing so hard that I couldn't understand what they were saying, and one of them shit their pants loudly. 

Edited July 2, 2024 by WestCanMan

[impartialobserver]

1 minute ago, WestCanMan said:

Luckily for you that suddenly came en vogue. The rest of us were waiting on that a bit longer than you were. 

Regardless of that, people want the guy to win who pushes the agenda they like. Now we've seen how awesome Biden's agenda was for America and it looks like it was a huge mistake to elect him. 

Money, power and influence just called. They were gut-laughing so hard that I couldn't understand that they were saying, and one of them shit their pants loudly. 

if you must knew.. never voted for Biden... so been ready for him to be put out to pasture for 20+ years. 

So they have an agenda.. cool. But lets say that we have candidate x.. he/she is really great and they fit the agenda perfectly. But subjectively.. it is discerned that they have only the smallest chance to win. Do you know what happens? They get forgotten about it in the blink of an eye. So what do we do? First item on the decision tree is probability of winning and then second is what they actually have to say. 

[WestCanMan]

1 minute ago, impartialobserver said:

But subjectively.. it is discerned that they have only the smallest chance to win. Do you know what happens? They get forgotten about it in the blink of an eye. 

Good. Majority rules. If only a tiny portion of the population wants what you want, then forget about it and move on. 

[impartialobserver]

6 minutes ago, WestCanMan said:

Good. Majority rules. If only a tiny portion of the population wants what you want, then forget about it and move on. 

But that runs contrary to your conclusion that they care about agenda/platform first and foremost and chance of winning coming in second (if not lower on the priority list). 

[reason10]

22 hours ago, gatomontes99 said:

Sure things rarely exist in betting. Trump beating Biden is as close as it gets.

You know that the last Maine and Minnesota polls had them tied? Even without Maine or Minnesota, Trump has such a big lead he could lose Texas and still win. Think about that.

The idea is to watch the polls, (especially in swing states) and enforce the laws.

If  it's a fair election, the winner will be called on Election Night, probably before ten PM. If we have to wait past that, it means that Trump won and the BideNazis are trying to manufacture votes to overturn the Trump victory, just like in 2020. That's the thing Americans find so depressing. 2020 Biden wasn't quite this incompetent, but there's NO WAY that son of a b!tch won 81 million votes.

People who say otherwise are either LIARS are the dumbest carbon based life forms in the universe.

[WestCanMan]

26 minutes ago, impartialobserver said:

But that runs contrary to your conclusion that they care about agenda/platform first and foremost and chance of winning coming in second (if not lower on the priority list). 

OMG, you pretend to understand raw data, then you say that?

Yes, people care about their agenda, but when one aspect of it it can't be furthered, they align themselves with the closest candidate. No one expects that 1 of 2 or even 1 of 6 candidates will perfectly align with every single item on their wish list. 

Any statistician would understand that among 350M people there are innumerable permutations of "voter wish lists". Even laymen understand that implicitly.

Even politicians can't go with their own wish list, or they're unelectable. 

You have a bot-like understanding of humans. 

[WestCanMan]

Oops. Somebody's crying 🤣