Majority of Americans wrongly believe U.S. is in recession – and most blame Biden

[robosmith]

Majority of Americans wrongly believe U.S. is in recession – and most blame Biden

Quote

Nearly three in five Americans wrongly believe the US is in an economic recession, and the majority blame the Biden administration, according to a Harris poll conducted exclusively for the Guardian highlighted many misconceptions people have about the economy.

55% believe the economy is shrinking, and 56% think the US is experiencing a recession, though the broadest measure of the economy, gross domestic product (GDP), has been growing.49% believe the S&P 500 stock market index is down for the year, though the index went up about 24% in 2023 and is up more than 12% this year.49% believe that unemployment is at a 50-year high, though the unemployment rate has been under 4%, a near 50-year low.

Many Americans put the blame on Biden for the state of the economy, with 58% of those polled saying the economy is worsening due to mismanagement from the presidential administration.

The poll underscored people’s complicated emotions around inflation. The vast majority of respondents, 72%, indicated they think inflation is increasing. In reality, the rate of inflation has fallen sharply from its post-Covid peak of 9.1% and has been fluctuating between 3% and 4% a year.

In April, the inflation rate went down from 3.5% to 3.4% – far from inflation’s 40-year peak of 9.1% in June 2022 – triggering a stock market rally that pushed the Dow Jones index to a record high. 

I didn't know just how prevalent exclusive FOS LIES viewers are... 🤮

 

[CdnFox]

This is because their lives are worse. They can't afford the things they used to be able to afford and they know it.

Biden keeps thinking that if the artificially props up the numbers with government spending but people will be convinced he's doing great. But people aren't stupid and they know if they don't have as much money or spending power as they used to. And every time he says "We're doing great"they look at him like he's out of touch and nuts.

[gatomontes99]

[impartialobserver]

all you have to do is look here (https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product). If the gdp on a year over basis declines for 3 consecutive quarters.. then you have a recession (as defined by most). 

[CdnFox]

7 minutes ago, impartialobserver said:

all you have to do is look here (https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product). If the gdp on a year over basis declines for 3 consecutive quarters.. then you have a recession (as defined by most). 

Two consecutive quarters, but yes that is the most accepted definition. However it is widely accepted that it is not the only applicable definition and that you can have a practical recession without actually having those specific conditions met. For example if inflation is higher than wage growth or GDP growth. If your GDP per capita is going down then it is also by many economic standards considered to be a recession even though actual GDP has increased.

There's a lot of ways to measure an economic downturn. Whether you want to call it a recession or something else it means the same thing: There is less buying power per person than there was before. Either due to unemployment or inflation or wages being cut or whatever

People are feeling the effects of what feels like a recession to them and they are reacting appropriately.

[impartialobserver]

6 minutes ago, CdnFox said:

Two consecutive quarters, but yes that is the most accepted definition. However it is widely accepted that it is not the only applicable definition and that you can have a practical recession without actually having those specific conditions met. For example if inflation is higher than wage growth or GDP growth. If your GDP per capita is going down then it is also by many economic standards considered to be a recession even though actual GDP has increased.

There's a lot of ways to measure an economic downturn. Whether you want to call it a recession or something else it means the same thing: There is less buying power per person than there was before. Either due to unemployment or inflation or wages being cut or whatever

People are feeling the effects of what feels like a recession to them and they are reacting appropriately.

I prefer quantitative measures over qualitative (opinions). Quantitative do not rely on interpretation.  6-7 = -1 is a decline no matter how you feel about it. In your case.. you would simply use Real GDP.. problem solved. Real = adjusted for inflation. 

https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product, click on tables only, in the downloaded excel item.. real GDP is in the second tab, Table 1

Edited May 30, 2024 by impartialobserver

[robosmith]

21 minutes ago, gatomontes99 said:

^This BS is what gets posted when the poster has NO REBUTTAL.

Edited May 30, 2024 by robosmith

[gatomontes99]

12 minutes ago, robosmith said:

^This BS is what gets posted when the poster has NO REBUTTAL.

Actually, it is what gets posted when the OP is so clueless that engaging in debate is pointless. You don't understand that perception is reality. But, also, consumers are very aware of economic turmoil without government or press confirmation.

But there are a few indicators that say the economy is declining:

First-quarter GDP growth revised down to 1.3% rate

21 states where recession bells are ringing after unemployment jumps

Real Wages Are Down Under Joe Biden’s Presidency

Inflation is up 20% since Biden took office

People know they can't afford everything they could afford four years ago. They know who to blame.

You can be be blissfully unaware of reality if you like. But the rest of us see the fire.

[Nationalist]

2 hours ago, robosmith said:

Majority of Americans wrongly believe U.S. is in recession – and most blame Biden

I didn't know just how prevalent exclusive FOS LIES viewers are... 🤮

 

Giggle...

Hey thilly boy...

Your addled old hero still trying to claim Brandonomics is doing wonders for the economy?

Monday his coke addict degenerate son goes to court. In about 3 weeks Brandon will try to stay on his feet to debate Trump.

Lol...think he'll be able to find his way off stage this time?

[Fluffypants]

2 hours ago, robosmith said:

Majority of Americans wrongly believe U.S. is in recession – and most blame Biden

I didn't know just how prevalent exclusive FOS LIES viewers are... 🤮

 

Nobody is saying we are in a recession not even conservative news, so don't blame Fox. A lot of people don't know exactly what a recession is but they do know when they have to pinch pennies because they can't afford things they used to. It may not be a recession in name but it is a recession in feeling.

Their salaries aren't even keeping up with inflation so their savings are dwindling and their credit cards are maxed and people who were living paycheck to paycheck before are now having dig deeper to find ways to live.

 

Edited May 30, 2024 by Fluffypants

[CdnFox]

1 hour ago, impartialobserver said:

I prefer quantitative measures over qualitative (opinions). Quantitative do not rely on interpretation.

There's nothing qualitative about things like inflation. It's quite real.

And regardless of what you prefer people who can't afford as much food as they used to or are having trouble making rent payments aren't going to be interested in your opinion. They know they're suffering, they know that things aren't as good as they used to be, and they're going to hold the government to account for that.

[impartialobserver]

19 hours ago, CdnFox said:

There's nothing qualitative about things like inflation. It's quite real.

And regardless of what you prefer people who can't afford as much food as they used to or are having trouble making rent payments aren't going to be interested in your opinion. They know they're suffering, they know that things aren't as good as they used to be, and they're going to hold the government to account for that.

There are two ways to define a recession... quantitatively  or qualitatively. I prefer the former and that is the point. The most commonly used definition is quantitative... two consecutive quarters of decreasing (month over month or year over year) real gdp. This is quantitative because of the "two consecutive" portion. Do you care to debate that? 

BTW, if we defined a recession based on inflation (month over month or year over year).. the US would be technically in a recession for most months since the early 80's. If you need proof download the data for CPI-U at (https://www.bls.gov/cpi/data.htm) and then choose one screen. 

Edited May 31, 2024 by impartialobserver

[gatomontes99]

If you believe our economy is doing well, you might be a Biden supporter.

If you believe that Jews attacked Israel on Oct. 7th, you might be a Biden supporter.

If you believe the USA is supposed to be a banana republic lic, you might be a Biden supporter.

If you think men can have babies, you might be a Biden supporter.

If you think men dressed as women performing sexually explicit book readings for children is a ok, you might be a Biden supporter.

 

[impartialobserver]

2 minutes ago, gatomontes99 said:

If you believe our economy is doing well, you might be a Biden supporter.

If you believe that Jews attacked Israel on Oct. 7th, you might be a Biden supporter.

If you believe the USA is supposed to be a banana republic lic, you might be a Biden supporter.

If you think men can have babies, you might be a Biden supporter.

If you think men dressed as women performing sexually explicit book readings for children is a ok, you might be a Biden supporter.

 

When I decide if the economy is doing well.. I look at data. Real GDP, Real Personal income, jobs (as measured by Qcew).... how does that make me a Biden Supporter? 

[gatomontes99]

16 minutes ago, impartialobserver said:

When I decide if the economy is doing well.. I look at data. Real GDP, Real Personal income, jobs (as measured by Qcew).... how does that make me a Biden Supporter? 

Real Wages Are Down. Qcew doesn't account for inflation. Real GDP is down and trending down. Don't cherry pick data and say "This is fine." Reality is all that matters.

 

[Deluge]

23 hours ago, robosmith said:

Majority of Americans wrongly believe U.S. is in recession – and most blame Biden

I didn't know just how prevalent exclusive FOS LIES viewers are... 🤮

 

What roboshill is trying to say is that the government needs more money for things like Ukraine and the illegal alien infestation. 

[impartialobserver]

3 minutes ago, gatomontes99 said:

Real Wages Are Down. Qcew doesn't account for inflation. Real GDP is down and trending down. Don't cherry pick data and say "This is fine." Reality is all that matters.

 

Real GDP is down... not according to numbers which are far more trustworthy than purely partisan/incredibly biased types like you.  

https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product.. 

Real gross domestic product (GDP) increased at an annual rate of 1.3 percent in the first quarter of 2024, according to the "second" estimate. In the fourth quarter of 2023, real GDP increased 3.4 percent. The increase in the first quarter primarily reflected increases in consumer spending and housing investment that were partly offset by a decrease in inventory investment. Imports, which are a subtraction in the calculation of GDP, increased.

[CdnFox]

4 hours ago, impartialobserver said:

There are two ways to define a recession... quantitatively  or qualitatively.

There are dozens of ways. Economists argue about it all the time. And most have nothing to do with being qualitative. 

Quote

I prefer the former and that is the point. 

Sorry bud but that's a limited form of thinking that sounds more like an excuse to justify a confirmation-bias than it does anything else. 

As i said, inflation is entirely quantitative. You can measure it, you can quantize it, it's not qualitative. 

And looking at GDP as a primary indicator in isolation s bonkers. No real economist would do that or recommend it. GDP is impacted by things such as gov't spending.  The gov't has doled out biillions and billions of dollars which wind up getting spent in the economy but without a correlating creation of product in most cases, which is why inflation has been persistantly over target. 

I've been over this in detail before. The biden economy is not actually very good at all.  It's quite easy to see if you look .  And people are aware of this so they don't care what people like you say because they know you're wrong instictively. 

Posting the gdp like you did is similar to when people post the unemployment rate and you chew them out because they don't understand the stat. You're not understanding the stat 

[impartialobserver]

1 hour ago, CdnFox said:

There are dozens of ways. Economists argue about it all the time. And most have nothing to do with being qualitative. 

Sorry bud but that's a limited form of thinking that sounds more like an excuse to justify a confirmation-bias than it does anything else. 

As i said, inflation is entirely quantitative. You can measure it, you can quantize it, it's not qualitative. 

And looking at GDP as a primary indicator in isolation s bonkers. No real economist would do that or recommend it. GDP is impacted by things such as gov't spending.  The gov't has doled out biillions and billions of dollars which wind up getting spent in the economy but without a correlating creation of product in most cases, which is why inflation has been persistantly over target. 

I've been over this in detail before. The biden economy is not actually very good at all.  It's quite easy to see if you look .  And people are aware of this so they don't care what people like you say because they know you're wrong instictively. 

Posting the gdp like you did is similar to when people post the unemployment rate and you chew them out because they don't understand the stat. You're not understanding the stat 

Economists do not define a recession based on inflation alone... that is easily proven. Recessions are based on nominal or real gdp. It is the ups and down of nominal or real gdp. That is pretty much accepted fact. Now if you are going to argue if an economy is doing good/well/etc. (which are subjective terms) then feel free to go whatever direction you want. Besides the title of the thread is what?  majority-of-americans-wrongly-believe-us-is-in-recession-–-and-most-blame-biden/

Edited May 31, 2024 by impartialobserver

[Fluffypants]

Do you remember when we had 2 quarters of negative GDP and the same people argued that it wasn't a recession.

[CdnFox]

2 minutes ago, impartialobserver said:

Economists do not define a recession based on inflation alone... that is easily proven.

Nobody said they did. Or even suggested it. 

Quote

Recessions are based on nominal or real gdp.

One generally accepted simple definition is.  But there is no actual "definition" of recession that's absolute. GDP is what newspapers generally use to explain things simply to the public. But no. 

Attributes[edit]

A recession encompasses multiple attributes that often occur simultaneously and encompasses declines in component measures of economic activity, such as GDP, including consumption, investment, government spending, and net export activity. These summary measures are indicative of underlying drivers such as employment levels and skills, household savings rates, corporate investment decisions, interest rates, demographics, and government policies (Smith, 2018; Johnson & Thompson, 2020). By examining these factors comprehensively, economists gain insights into the complex dynamics that contribute to economic downturns and can formulate effective strategies for mitigating their impact (Anderson, 2019; Patel, 2017).

Recession - Wikipedia

 

Soooo yeah.  Inflation is in there too btw as far as economists are concerned  and a few other metrics. 

 

Soooooo... not just gdp. At all. Not even a little bit. 

Did you notice gov't spending and interest rates?  

Most of the time gdp is negatively affected so it makes a good simple explanation. Apperently you've been using that metric exclusively to determine if there's a recession. However as you can see that's wrong. Works the other way too, it's at least possible to have 2 quarters of negative growth and still not be an a recession. 

So there you go. 

[impartialobserver]

12 minutes ago, Fluffypants said:

Do you remember when we had 2 quarters of negative GDP and the same people argued that it wasn't a recession.

they can believe what they want but if GDP (real or nominal) goes down for 2 quarters.. then you have a recession. I can believe that the Dallas Mavericks did not win game 5 of the Western Conference Finals (NBA).. but just look at the score and one is greater than the other 

[impartialobserver]

9 minutes ago, CdnFox said:

Nobody said they did. Or even suggested it. 

One generally accepted simple definition is.  But there is no actual "definition" of recession that's absolute. GDP is what newspapers generally use to explain things simply to the public. But no. 

Attributes[edit]

A recession encompasses multiple attributes that often occur simultaneously and encompasses declines in component measures of economic activity, such as GDP, including consumption, investment, government spending, and net export activity. These summary measures are indicative of underlying drivers such as employment levels and skills, household savings rates, corporate investment decisions, interest rates, demographics, and government policies (Smith, 2018; Johnson & Thompson, 2020). By examining these factors comprehensively, economists gain insights into the complex dynamics that contribute to economic downturns and can formulate effective strategies for mitigating their impact (Anderson, 2019; Patel, 2017).

Recession - Wikipedia

 

Soooo yeah.  Inflation is in there too btw as far as economists are concerned  and a few other metrics. 

 

Soooooo... not just gdp. At all. Not even a little bit. 

Did you notice gov't spending and interest rates?  

Most of the time gdp is negatively affected so it makes a good simple explanation. Apperently you've been using that metric exclusively to determine if there's a recession. However as you can see that's wrong. Works the other way too, it's at least possible to have 2 quarters of negative growth and still not be an a recession. 

So there you go. 

Do you know what REAL gdp is? 

[CdnFox]

1 hour ago, impartialobserver said:

Do you know what REAL gdp is? 

Sooooo - just going to ignore the previous answer or the experts are you then? Sigh.  This is why the left always winds up messing up the finances whenever they get into power. 

Look, it's pretty clear you don't have much knowledge about this subject. You trotted out some nonsense about qualitative vs quantitative and that was ridiculous, you've attempted to insist that gdp is the only measure of a recession or that there's only one definition which is bonkers and now you seem to be ignoring the information you've been provided to go off on some other tangent instead of dealing with the facts. 

Let me make this more simple for you. 

A recession is a period where economic/fiscal conditions get worse instead of getting better for a group.  

Right now when all is said an done for most people in the US the economics of their situation is getting worse when you consider all the metrics. 

People notice this affecting their personal lives in the form of higher interest rates which causes their shelter to cost more, higher inflation which causes food and gas and such to cost more (about 20 percent on average since the end of 2020) while their wages have not increased. 

All of which is quantifiable.  And cannot be dismissed as qualitative. 

And that's why people are pissed at biden over the economy. Pointing to a single metric and trying to claim things are great when they're very clearly not isn't going to fool the people for whom it's not great. 

[gatomontes99]

6 hours ago, impartialobserver said:

Real GDP is down... not according to numbers which are far more trustworthy than purely partisan/incredibly biased types like you.  

https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product.. 

Real gross domestic product (GDP) increased at an annual rate of 1.3 percent in the first quarter of 2024, according to the "second" estimate. In the fourth quarter of 2023, real GDP increased 3.4 percent. The increase in the first quarter primarily reflected increases in consumer spending and housing investment that were partly offset by a decrease in inventory investment. Imports, which are a subtraction in the calculation of GDP, increased.

Sorry, I typed that in a hurry. I meant the rate at which the gdp is increasing is down.