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gatomontes99 Grand Master

gatomontes99

Posted
Posted (edited)

https://www.realclearpolling.com/maps/president/2024/no-toss-up/electoral-college

Screenshot_20240415_065111_Firefox.thumb.jpg.37f79c3fbd5fdb0ce83793b5c1d51471.jpg

 

As of today, Trump is winning handily. That's including an outlier poll in PA that gave Biden a 10% lead when the previous polls all had Trump up by just a little bit.

Edited by gatomontes99
typo

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robosmith Grand Master

robosmith

Posted
Posted
5 hours ago, gatomontes99 said:

https://www.realclearpolling.com/maps/president/2024/no-toss-up/electoral-college

Screenshot_20240415_065111_Firefox.thumb.jpg.37f79c3fbd5fdb0ce83793b5c1d51471.jpg

 

As of today, Trump is winning handily. That's including an outlier poll in PA that gave Biden a 10% lead when the previous polls all had Trump up by just a little bit.

Too bad ALL those polls are within the MARGIN OF ERROR. Do you even know what that means?

Aside from the FACT that early polls are never definitive nor predictive.

CdnFox Grand Master

CdnFox

Posted
Posted
6 minutes ago, robosmith said:

Too bad ALL those polls are within the MARGIN OF ERROR. Do you even know what that means?

Aside from the FACT that early polls are never definitive nor predictive.

so you mean Biden could be losing EVEN WORSE!!!  Good point .

  • Haha 1
Michael Hardner Grand Master

Michael Hardner

Posted
Posted
7 minutes ago, robosmith said:

Too bad ALL those polls are within the MARGIN OF ERROR. Do you even know what that means?

Aside from the FACT that early polls are never definitive nor predictive.

I thought they were talking about Margie Novera ?

I dated her briefly in 8th grade but she broke up with me when I put gum in her hair.

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Michael Hardner

CdnFox Grand Master

CdnFox

Posted
Posted
5 hours ago, gatomontes99 said:

https://www.realclearpolling.com/maps/president/2024/no-toss-up/electoral-college

Screenshot_20240415_065111_Firefox.thumb.jpg.37f79c3fbd5fdb0ce83793b5c1d51471.jpg

 

As of today, Trump is winning handily. That's including an outlier poll in PA that gave Biden a 10% lead when the previous polls all had Trump up by just a little bit.

Trump has a slight edge right now, the polls seem to be pretty consistent.

But it's not decisive. this is positioning and the time when the leaders get their base riled up,  the pitch for the 'mushy middle' voter who will decide this election will begin in about 3 months.  We'll see which way it breaks.  But it looks like trump is going to enjoy the poll position going into it

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robosmith Grand Master

robosmith

Posted
Posted (edited)
7 minutes ago, impartialobserver said:

looks fairly realistic. However, i predict that Trump loses in NV and MI. Still wins but not those states. 

Are you watching the trial? LMAO

Trump has already violated his gag order

Edited by robosmith
  • Downvote 1
User Grand Master

User

Posted
Posted

Polls may not always be perfect, but they can be a good indicator of outcomes. Still, there is a way to go until the election; a lot can happen, but the current trends have been in Trump's favor, and compared to the polls from the last two elections, these are some of the best polling numbers Trump has had... and he won in 2016 with worse polls and was not too far off from winning some of these battle ground states in 2020. 

 

 

 

gatomontes99 Grand Master

gatomontes99

Posted
  • Author
Posted

Updated map. RCP NO TOSS UPS

 

Screenshot_20240424_082453_Firefox.jpg

  • Like 2

The Rules for Liberal tactics:

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  3. If 1 and 2 fail, pretend it never happened.
  4. Everyone you disagree with is Hitler.
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impartialobserver Grand Master

impartialobserver

Posted
Posted

The reason that I have held firm that Trump wins regardless of breakdown by state is that Biden has been fairly unremarkable and that close losses can lead to close wins. In the past one.. A lot of Trump's losses were fairly narrow. Fairly realistic that the outcome can flip. 

CdnFox Grand Master

CdnFox

Posted
Posted
On 4/16/2024 at 11:10 AM, User said:

Polls may not always be perfect, but they can be a good indicator of outcomes. Still, there is a way to go until the election; a lot can happen, but the current trends have been in Trump's favor, and compared to the polls from the last two elections, these are some of the best polling numbers Trump has had... and he won in 2016 with worse polls and was not too far off from winning some of these battle ground states in 2020. 

 

We saw some movement in early january and trump took the lead by a nose (but - like a fairly big nose. An "italian" lead if you will),  but since then the polls have been largely stagnant - they just bounce around a bit within their margin of error as you'd expect but there's no real movement.

In elections there tends to be specific points where the undecided or 'soft' votes tend to move one way or another, and they tend to be fairly stable in between. The first week or so of an election, right after debates,  the last 4 days etc.  I think right now we've just gone through the 'pre-eleciton' phase and barring something significant happen we're probably not going to see a lot of motion between now and the start of the election, where people start paying attention again. Maybe at the nominations where there's a little media coverage of the 'official' candidates.

But obviously the start of the race is going to see trump with a slight advantage over biden. The campaign will decide who wins in the end tho, campaigns always matter but this time more than usual i'd think.

  • Like 1
gatomontes99 Grand Master

gatomontes99

Posted
  • Author
Posted
9 minutes ago, CdnFox said:

Yeah - even the toss up poll flavors him.  But his lead is not decisive yet by any means. The campaign will matter

 

image.thumb.png.37ee8eee7cbfe000a7271f3fbc4c66c1.png

I saw someone say Biden was ahead in the polls. I just wanted to set the record straight.

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The Rules for Liberal tactics:

  1. If they can't refute the content, attack the source.
  2. If they can't refute the content, attack the poster.
  3. If 1 and 2 fail, pretend it never happened.
  4. Everyone you disagree with is Hitler.
  5. A word is defined by the emotion it elicits and not the actual definition.
  6. If they are wrong, blame the opponent.
  7. If a liberal policy didn't work, it's a conservatives fault and vice versa.
  8. If all else fails, just be angry.
CdnFox Grand Master

CdnFox

Posted
Posted
Just now, gatomontes99 said:

I saw someone say Biden was ahead in the polls. I just wanted to set the record straight.

Ahhh. :P   Well he's not :)

But all the polls have a margin of error so there's always a little bit of 'vibration' and up and down play even if nothing has actually changed.  Sometimes that gets some people a little excited needlessly :) 

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impartialobserver Grand Master

impartialobserver

Posted
Posted

polls are like mock drafts.. predictions made months before the event. Most are fairly close because we know past history and in the case of a draft.. we know what teams like to do and what they need in order to succeed. However, just because one uses rationality to predict the outcome.. that does not mean that the participants (voters or NFL Teams) will act rationally. Denver Broncos moving up to draft Tim Tebow in the first round of the 2010 nfl draft.. no one saw that coming. 

robosmith Grand Master

robosmith

Posted
Posted
53 minutes ago, gatomontes99 said:

I saw someone say Biden was ahead in the polls. I just wanted to set the record straight.

Your poll data map goes back over a month. My very recent posted poll shows the trend favors Biden.

gatomontes99 Grand Master

gatomontes99

Posted
  • Author
Posted
26 minutes ago, robosmith said:

Your poll data map goes back over a month. My very recent posted poll shows the trend favors Biden.

You don't have a poll. You have an OPINION.

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The Rules for Liberal tactics:

  1. If they can't refute the content, attack the source.
  2. If they can't refute the content, attack the poster.
  3. If 1 and 2 fail, pretend it never happened.
  4. Everyone you disagree with is Hitler.
  5. A word is defined by the emotion it elicits and not the actual definition.
  6. If they are wrong, blame the opponent.
  7. If a liberal policy didn't work, it's a conservatives fault and vice versa.
  8. If all else fails, just be angry.
robosmith Grand Master

robosmith

Posted
Posted (edited)
5 minutes ago, gatomontes99 said:

You don't have a poll. You have an OPINION.

Just cause you missed the poll I POSTED, does not mean I didn't post one two days ago.

The FACT is, you don't read every post here and thus have NO BASIS for ^this OPINION.

image.png

Edited by robosmith
User Grand Master

User

Posted
Posted
30 minutes ago, robosmith said:

Your poll data map goes back over a month. My very recent posted poll shows the trend favors Biden.

LOL... yeah, that is how we look at trends. We look at them beyond only the one good week you want to look at. 

  • Haha 1

 

 

gatomontes99 Grand Master

gatomontes99

Posted
  • Author
Posted
2 minutes ago, robosmith said:

Just cause you missed the poll I POSTED, does not mean I didn't post one two days ago.

The FACT is, you don't read every post here and thus have NO BASIS for ^this OPINION.

If you don't post a link, it is just an OPINION.

  • Thanks 1

The Rules for Liberal tactics:

  1. If they can't refute the content, attack the source.
  2. If they can't refute the content, attack the poster.
  3. If 1 and 2 fail, pretend it never happened.
  4. Everyone you disagree with is Hitler.
  5. A word is defined by the emotion it elicits and not the actual definition.
  6. If they are wrong, blame the opponent.
  7. If a liberal policy didn't work, it's a conservatives fault and vice versa.
  8. If all else fails, just be angry.
robosmith Grand Master

robosmith

Posted
Posted
3 minutes ago, User said:

LOL... yeah, that is how we look at trends. We look at them beyond only the one good week you want to look at. 

Recent data shows the TREND, your OLD DATA is OLD NEWS.

2 minutes ago, gatomontes99 said:

If you don't post a link, it is just an OPINION.

I posted a link in another thread and YOU MISSED IT.

gatomontes99 Grand Master

gatomontes99

Posted
  • Author
Posted
8 minutes ago, robosmith said:

Just cause you missed the poll I POSTED, does not mean I didn't post one two days ago.

The FACT is, you don't read every post here and thus have NO BASIS for ^this OPINION.

image.png

Newsweek? NBC? Don't you have something reputable? After all NBC still believes there is a pee tape and Newsweek thinks Biden won the election.

The Rules for Liberal tactics:

  1. If they can't refute the content, attack the source.
  2. If they can't refute the content, attack the poster.
  3. If 1 and 2 fail, pretend it never happened.
  4. Everyone you disagree with is Hitler.
  5. A word is defined by the emotion it elicits and not the actual definition.
  6. If they are wrong, blame the opponent.
  7. If a liberal policy didn't work, it's a conservatives fault and vice versa.
  8. If all else fails, just be angry.
User Grand Master

User

Posted
Posted
5 minutes ago, robosmith said:

Recent data shows the TREND, your OLD DATA is OLD NEWS.

I posted a link in another thread and YOU MISSED IT.

There is no such thing as something being old data or old news. That is all subjective. A trend can be measured over any time frame depending on what is being looked at, and pretending like only the most recent weekly trend is all that matters is just silly nonsense. 

And we are not even talking about the difference between national polling and battleground states either... 

 

 

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