not so fast...SES POLL

[BigGunner]

SES Poll - released late today shows the numbers are far closer than we imagined...

http://www.sesresearch.com/election/SES%20...022%202006E.pdf

Seems that the liberals have some energy left, and the NDP is surging...could be one of the most exciting elections in a generation.

[geoffrey]

SES Poll - released late today shows the numbers are far closer than we imagined...

http://www.sesresearch.com/election/SES%20...022%202006E.pdf

Seems that the liberals have some energy left, and the NDP is surging...could be one of the most exciting elections in a generation.

I'm going to call into question any poll released this late. It's not only exercising undue influence on the actual results, but released by itself like that has no peer review. It's also completely misleading. Read the actual who'd ya vote for category and the Conservatives are up by 6?

This is ridiculous, I was ok with polling. But releasing one so late on the night before the election, thats just crap. Hopefully the general population doesn't read this. Or at least reads the whole polling result that shows the lead has only shrunk 1% to 6%... not down to 1%.

[BigGunner]

I'm only suggesting that no one has a lock on the final results. SES has been seen as a relatively credible pollster, as is Ipsos-Ried - who also have a poll out this evening...

http://www.canada.com/globaltv/national/st...43-677f9e3c147f

SES Poll - released late today shows the numbers are far closer than we imagined...

http://www.sesresearch.com/election/SES%20...022%202006E.pdf

Seems that the liberals have some energy left, and the NDP is surging...could be one of the most exciting elections in a generation.

I'm going to call into question any poll released this late. It's not only exercising undue influence on the actual results, but released by itself like that has no peer review. It's also completely misleading. Read the actual who'd ya vote for category and the Conservatives are up by 6?

This is ridiculous, I was ok with polling. But releasing one so late on the night before the election, thats just crap. Hopefully the general population doesn't read this. Or at least reads the whole polling result that shows the lead has only shrunk 1% to 6%... not down to 1%.

[betsy]

SES Poll - released late today shows the numbers are far closer than we imagined...

http://www.sesresearch.com/election/SES%20...022%202006E.pdf

Seems that the liberals have some energy left, and the NDP is surging...could be one of the most exciting elections in a generation.

I'm going to call into question any poll released this late. It's not only exercising undue influence on the actual results, but released by itself like that has no peer review. It's also completely misleading. Read the actual who'd ya vote for category and the Conservatives are up by 6?

This is ridiculous, I was ok with polling. But releasing one so late on the night before the election, thats just crap. Hopefully the general population doesn't read this. Or at least reads the whole polling result that shows the lead has only shrunk 1% to 6%... not down to 1%.

They were talking about that just a while back on CPAC with the SES president and a political science university professor. They say the concentration of attacks on Harper by all three candidates in the last 48 hours seem to have worked.

Btw SES says that from the last election 2004, 10% of voters decided whom to vote right there on the spot while filling up their ballots.

I guess the real poll is tomorrow.

[shoop]

If you honestly believe the NDP is at 22%, power to you.

Gotta make you wonder how the support for the NDP can go up almost 75% (from 13.7% to 22.2%) in two days.

[BigGunner]

Every other pollster from Ispos-Reid to Decima to Ekos also had the NDP at 20% too...

But, consider that many of the undecided are coming off the fence now too..

I was just reporting the numbers - not trying to conclude anything other than its closer than we might think.

If you honestly believe the NDP is at 22%, power to you.

Gotta make you wonder how the support for the NDP can go up almost 75% (from 13.7% to 22.2%) in two days.

[geoffrey]

If you honestly believe the NDP is at 22%, power to you.

Gotta make you wonder how the support for the NDP can go up almost 75% (from 13.7% to 22.2%) in two days.

Whew I didn't see that Ipsos poll on their website and I was a little worried that the papers were going to lead with "Harper is losing" headlines tomorrow.

Apparently we are up 10%, and Ipsos interviewed 11,000 people... SES intervied 400...

[August1991]

I disagree, Geoff.

A poll is a poll, and I think SES said they would publish the night before the election.

Keep in mind that the final poll published is based on a sample of 400 (their 3-day rolling poll had 1200) so you can take it for what it's worth. They claim a margin of error of 5%.

Three points:

First, the BQ is at 42% in Quebec.

Second, the Liberals and NDP are trending up.

Third, the most likely to vote are Liberal and NDP. (I'm not surprised about drops in BQ and Green, since these are people who are not interested in federal politics.

----

Martin's constant attacks on Harper have been poll-driven. People who vote Liberal or NDP are motivated to vote to stop Harper.

[geoffrey]

I disagree, Geoff.

A poll is a poll, and I think SES said they would publish the night before the election.

Keep in mind that the final poll published is based on a sample of 400 (their 3-day rolling poll had 1200) so you can take it for what it's worth. They claim a margin of error of 5%.

Three points:

First, the BQ is at 42% in Quebec.

Second, the Liberals and NDP are trending up.

Third, the most likely to vote are Liberal and NDP. (I'm not surprised about drops in BQ and Green, since these are people who are not interested in federal politics.

----

Martin's constant attacks on Harper have been poll-driven. People who vote Liberal or NDP are motivated to vote to stop Harper.

I didn't care about the poll as much as how the papers would spin it the next day. All is good anyways, the n=11,000 ipsos poll looks tastier.

[scribblet]

I thought it was against the law to release a poll prior to election day. IMHO it should be 2 days before, maybe 3.

[shoop]

Hmmm, let's look at the last reported polls for each of three big polling firms.

Angus Reid - January 21st NDP = 19%

Strategic Counsel - January 20th　NDP = 17%

Decima - January 18th NDP = 17%

An average of 18% is sure a big difference from having the NDP at 22%.

Any particular reason why you chose to report the SES numbers exclusively?

Every other pollster from Ispos-Reid to Decima to Ekos also had the NDP at 20% too...

But, consider that many of the undecided are coming off the fence now too..

I was just reporting the numbers - not trying to conclude anything other than its closer than we might think.

[BigGunner]

The ipsos-reid poll, while a LARGE sample, covers 5 days of polling. SES, with its smaller sample was done over one evening and therefore is more 'fresh'...but the higher error rate weakens its numbers a little.

I'll still stay with my suggestion of a narrow Harper minority tommorrow..

If you honestly believe the NDP is at 22%, power to you.

Gotta make you wonder how the support for the NDP can go up almost 75% (from 13.7% to 22.2%) in two days.

Whew I didn't see that Ipsos poll on their website and I was a little worried that the papers were going to lead with "Harper is losing" headlines tomorrow.

Apparently we are up 10%, and Ipsos interviewed 11,000 people... SES intervied 400...

[BigGunner]

Hmmm, let's look at the last reported polls for each of three big polling firms.

Angus Reid - January 21st NDP = 19%

Strategic Counsel - January 20th　NDP = 17%

Decima - January 18th NDP = 17%

An average of 18% is sure a big difference from having the NDP at 22%.

Any particular reason why you chose to report the SES numbers exclusively?

Answer >> It was the first one I discovered...pretty simple

[shoop]

What do you consider to be a *narrow* minority? Where have you said the CPC would win a *narrow* minority?

Why would you even post the Ipsos poll? The Ipsos poll points to a CPC majority.

Oh yeah, it is yet another poll that calls into question the NDP at 22% nationally?

The ipsos-reid poll, while a LARGE sample, covers 5 days of polling. SES, with its smaller sample was done over one evening and therefore is more 'fresh'...but the higher error rate weakens its numbers a little.

I'll still stay with my suggestion of a narrow Harper minority tommorrow..

[geoffrey]

I thought it was against the law to release a poll prior to election day. IMHO it should be 2 days before, maybe 3.

It should be. Polls have way to much influence on a vote to be released this close. I'm all in favour of 3 days.

[Canuck E Stan]

Margin of error at =/-5.8(higher than most polls) and the undecided at 10%

I wouldn't put much to this last minute poll.

The only poll that is totally accurate is the the one that comes out on Monday night.

[shoop]

Understood.

Right now I would say we are looking at 140 to 150 CPC seats.

Probly not a *narrow* minority although I am waiting hear that term defined.

Margin of error at =/-5.8(higher than most polls) and the undecided at 10%

I wouldn't put much to this last minute poll.

The only poll that is totally accurate is the the one that comes out on Monday night.

[BigGunner]

Attacking me for reporting these polls doesn't change their content - no matter how much you might not like the numbers.

What I do know is that conservative support is super-concentrated in areas they're likely to win...for example, if the tories jumped from 55% to 70% in Alberta, they can still only win 2 more seats there. Here in BC, there are areas that vote like that too...the Abbotsford seat will vote 65-70% conservative - increasing from its high 50's in 2004 - but no gain in seats.

In 2004, the tories had 32% of the total national vote AND LOST...using Ipsos-Reid's numbers, an increase to 38% would expand on the 99 seats they won in 2004, but not anywhere near the 55 seats they'd need to gain to form a majority.

Add this to the fact that the NDP's support is holding - and has expanded from 2004. A jump from 16% in 2004 to 19 or 20% tommorrow means that they can take seats in areas that they've probably never won before - thwarting a majority gov't for the conservatives.

I suggest we stop the petty shots here and sit back and relax...its been a good campaign, and a long one, we've all earned the break.

What do you consider to be a *narrow* minority? Where have you said the CPC would win a *narrow* minority?

Why would you even post the Ipsos poll? The Ipsos poll points to a CPC majority.

Oh yeah, it is yet another poll that calls into question the NDP at 22% nationally?

The ipsos-reid poll, while a LARGE sample, covers 5 days of polling. SES, with its smaller sample was done over one evening and therefore is more 'fresh'...but the higher error rate weakens its numbers a little.

I'll still stay with my suggestion of a narrow Harper minority tommorrow..

[geoffrey]

BigGunner I hope I didn't come across as attacking you for posting it, I was attacking the polling company for publishing it.

Your right, its been a long long campaign, I almost feel like a vacation is in order.

[Boru]

SES Poll - released late today shows the numbers are far closer than we imagined...

http://www.sesresearch.com/election/SES%20...022%202006E.pdf

Seems that the liberals have some energy left, and the NDP is surging...could be one of the most exciting elections in a generation.

I'm going to call into question any poll released this late. It's not only exercising undue influence on the actual results, but released by itself like that has no peer review. It's also completely misleading. Read the actual who'd ya vote for category and the Conservatives are up by 6?

This is ridiculous, I was ok with polling. But releasing one so late on the night before the election, thats just crap. Hopefully the general population doesn't read this. Or at least reads the whole polling result that shows the lead has only shrunk 1% to 6%... not down to 1%.

No offense Geoffrey, but this just basically sounds like you can't stand to see the sight of a poll showing the Conservative lead evaporating.

Although this poll was late, there were many, many more released throughout the day. Why is this one so different? it was released 6 hours later? Please...

This poll was posted dwithin the bounds of the law. You don't like it? Then write to your MP and have them change the regulations for poll ppsting. I personally agree with you. I don't think there should be any polling for at least the three days leading to an election. If not , longer.

But so long as the rules stand as they are, don't blast someone for posting results that you don't like.

Be honest, is it because you don't like seeing the Conservative lead diminished?

"Hopefully the general population doesn't read this. Or at least reads the whole polling result that shows the lead has only shrunk 1% to 6%... not down to 1%."

Clearly illustrates your position I think.

I don't know that this poll is accurate, but it doesn't surprise me at all that the Blue machine has lsot it's momentum. It was only a matter of time right?

[geoffrey]

No offense Geoffrey, but this just basically sounds like you can't stand to see the sight of a poll showing the Conservative lead evaporating.

Although this poll was late, there were many, many more released throughout the day. Why is this one so different? it was released 6 hours later? Please...

This poll was posted dwithin the bounds of the law. You don't like it? Then write to your MP and have them change the regulations for poll ppsting. I personally agree with you. I don't think there should be any polling for at least the three days leading to an election. If not , longer.

But so long as the rules stand as they are, don't blast someone for posting results that you don't like.

Be honest, is it because you don't like seeing the Conservative lead diminished?

"Hopefully the general population doesn't read this. Or at least reads the whole polling result that shows the lead has only shrunk 1% to 6%... not down to 1%."

Clearly illustrates your position I think.

I don't know that this poll is accurate, but it doesn't surprise me at all that the Blue machine has lsot it's momentum. It was only a matter of time right?

The first part that says we are down to 1% is misleading if you read the rest of the release.

I wasn't being critical of Big Gunner, he just posted the results, no biggy.

I'm just critical of any release that comes out right before the election that is so different from the rest of the polls. I understand with the smaller sample size its going to be off by more. But thats outside even margin of error to any of the other polls. See what I mean? Just doesn't seem right for it to be that off and right at the end.

[August1991]

This poll was posted dwithin the bounds of the law. You don't like it? Then write to your MP and have them change the regulations for poll ppsting. I personally agree with you. I don't think there should be any polling for at least the three days leading to an election. If not , longer.

Not to change the topic, but that is unfeasible.

One of the differences in this campaign is the use of the Internet. Laws controlling how information is spread during campaigns - including campaign finance restrictions - will become increasingly difficult to enforce.

No one can stop the publication of a poll on the Internet, and in the polling business, this is the money shot. This is their last chance to predict before the real numbers become known. It's PR for the lucrative polling they do for marketers.

[Boru]

This poll was posted dwithin the bounds of the law. You don't like it? Then write to your MP and have them change the regulations for poll ppsting. I personally agree with you. I don't think there should be any polling for at least the three days leading to an election. If not , longer.

Not to change the topic, but that is unfeasible.

One of the differences in this campaign is the use of the Internet. Laws controlling how information is spread during campaigns - including campaign finance restrictions - will become increasingly difficult to enforce.

No one can stop the publication of a poll on the Internet, and in the polling business, this is the money shot. This is their last chance to predict before the real numbers become known. It's PR for the lucrative polling they do for marketers.

You're not changing the subject at all Right on topic.

I agree, that it wil be harder and harder to stop polls with the ease of transferring information. However, that being said, the polls most people pay attention to are the big tracking company polls. It's easy enough to enforce how those big 3 or 4 act. It is their last big moneyshot, but the integrity of the vote must be maintained.

In my opinion, polls have high potential of influencing the vote. While influencing a vote is obviously fine, the way polls do it, just rubs me the wrong way. The way they set the polls up almost leaves the impression with me that there are only two parties to vote for, so why bother thinhking about any more? Just look at the poll, the others are statistically elimiated. Don't waste your vote on them...etc...

That's my take anyways.

[stignasty]

All the polls are for decided voters. Have any of you heard how many undecided voters are still out there? I wonder if it might be enough to throw off the predictions.

[geoffrey]

All the polls are for decided voters. Have any of you heard how many undecided voters are still out there? I wonder if it might be enough to throw off the predictions.

Around 10% from what I can remember.