It could be a ‘bloodbath for the Liberals’ if polls hold up until next election, say political strategists and insiders

[CdnFox]

4 hours ago, Moonlight Graham said:

Does it matter if everyone gets along if we sell our democracy to the Chinese, Indian, and Russian governments?

Don't underestimate what politicians will do to stay in power.  If the choice is the best interests of their country or their jobs most will choose their jobs.  The rest will be dumped on the curb like JWR.

He supports the federal libs, so if they do he'll just claim it's all part of 'getting along' and selling our democracy to a foreign nation is how we show we get along.

Imagine a person from quebec so deluded that they claim that we all 'get along'. It's like Hitler claiming he has a harmonious relationship with the Jews

[August1991]

17 hours ago, CdnFox said:

He supports the federal libs, so if they do he'll just claim it's all part of 'getting along' and selling our democracy to a foreign nation is how we show we get along.

As it happens, I have never voted in a federal riding for a candidate of the Liberals.

But I remember well the period from December 1979 to February 1980. 

[CdnFox]

2 hours ago, August1991 said:

As it happens, I have never voted in a federal riding for a candidate of the Liberals.

But I remember well the period from December 1979 to February 1980. 

Dude - after all your 'we get along' lies which are obviously meant to be deceptive to promote your personal ideologial agenda i think it's safe to say that there's no reason in the world for anyone to believe that's true.

[August1991]

2 hours ago, CdnFox said:

Dude - after all your 'we get along' lies which are obviously meant to be deceptive to promote your personal ideologial agenda i think it's safe to say that there's no reason in the world for anyone to believe that's true.

Clark was elected in May 1979. Trudeau Snr resigned, grew a beard in the summer. Rae presented a motion, the government fell.

Trudeau Snr returned, and was re-elected with a federal majority in Feb 1980.

In May 1980, Levesque lost his honest referendum.

====

Get along?

Let me explain what happened in 1995. Or 1917.

 

[CdnFox]

1 hour ago, August1991 said:

Clark was elected in May 1979. Trudeau Snr resigned, grew a beard in the summer. Rae presented a motion, the government fell.

 

And? Is this your new debating style - when you can't make an intelligent point make a useless point that has no point instead?

Quote

Trudeau Snr returned, and was re-elected with a federal majority in Feb 1980.

In May 1980, Levesque lost his honest referendum.

And? Yawn.

Or are you just trying to distract from the fact trudeau has been selling out our democracy.  You'll defend them for that, try to switch the subject, but you've never supported them. Riiiiiiiiight.
 

Quote

 

Get along?

Let me explain what happened in 1995. Or 1917.

 

You can't even explain what's happening now or what you're point is.

[August1991]

3 minutes ago, CdnFox said:

...

You can't even explain what's happening now or what you're point is.

In 1976, the Tories chose Joe Clark rather than Claude Wagner.

I would have been a better choice than Clark - and I was kid, unilingue at the time.

Mulroney and Trudeau Snr both knew that.

[CdnFox]

10 minutes ago, August1991 said:

In 1976, the Tories chose Joe Clark rather than Claude Wagner.

I would have been a better choice than Clark - and I was kid, unilingue at the time.

Mulroney and Trudeau Snr both knew that.

And?

Did you fall at all today and possibly hit your head or something?

[August1991]

14 minutes ago, CdnFox said:

And?

Did you fall at all today and possibly hit your head or something?

In 1976, after Diefenbaker, after Stanfield, the federal Tories reached past Wagner and Mulroney - to choose Clark.

When the Republicans lose in 2024, look who they'll choose.

As I say, Trump is like Diefenbaker.

[CdnFox]

19 minutes ago, August1991 said:

In 1976, after Diefenbaker, after Stanfield, the federal Tories reached past Wagner and Mulroney - to choose Clark.

When the Republicans lose in 2024, look who they'll choose.

As I say, Trump is like Diefenbaker.

During World War II, a Great Dane named Juliana was awarded the Blue Cross Medal. She extinguished an incendiary bomb by peeing on it

[August1991]

As I say, Trump is another Diefenbaker.

A blowhard. 

[CdnFox]

1 hour ago, August1991 said:

As I say, Trump is another Diefenbaker.

A blowhard. 

Sure kid.

[August1991]

20 minutes ago, CdnFox said:

Sure kid.

Quote me.

Getting rid of Trump will be as hard as getting rid of Diefenbaker.

Remember Dalton Camp?

 

[CdnFox]

8 hours ago, August1991 said:

Quote me.

I've kind of lost interest.  I'm not saying i'm a genius but i'm pretty clever - if i have to ask more than once what your point was then you're probably not worth spending a lot of time thinking about. If i have to ask 3 times and you still can't muster up the language skills to explain what you're discussing then that's pretty bad.

If trump wins the next election that's it - he can never run again, so he's gone.  If he loses I think it's safe to say the GOP won't be running him in 4 years plus some of his legal issues are going to catch up with him.  He might go down with a fight but two losses will be enough for the gop.

[Queenmandy85]

Rather than a bloodbath for the LPC, it looks like just a defeat. The 338 polls are still showing the CPC dropping and a small gain for the grits, but you can be certain Poilievre will still manage to get a majority in 18 months. There is not enough time for the Liberals to close the gap.

[CdnFox]

49 minutes ago, Queenmandy85 said:

Rather than a bloodbath for the LPC, it looks like just a defeat. The 338 polls are still showing the CPC dropping and a small gain for the grits, but you can be certain Poilievre will still manage to get a majority in 18 months. There is not enough time for the Liberals to close the gap.

At this point it still looks like it could very well be a bloodbath.

Given the margins of error the cpc and the libs will go "up" and "Down" by as much as six points reletive to each other even if actual voter intentions remain the same and i note that most polls such as nanos still have the cpc around 40.  So i doubt much substantial has changed.

We'll know more over the next month or so as polls come in.  Honestly - they can't stay perpetually high forever.

However - when you're looking at likely out comes there's a number of factors to take into account, some are more mathimatical and others are less easy to pin down precisely.

But - length of time in office is a factor. Even if the leader wasn't hated, the libs have hit their stale date, as most gov'ts do by year 8.  That will continue to get worse.

Money is a factor - the libs will struggle to launch a fully funded campaign in each riding, the cpc is much better. People tend to overestimate the imapct of money in canadian elections but it is a factor.

the dissatisfaction of the electorate with the state of the nation.  Which is very high right now. High inflation, high interest rates, probable recession on the horizon, etc etc.  People are in rough shape. So dissatisfaction is high.

Campaign skills (this is one that's harder to define).  Justin's been effective in campaigns but his strategy is getting old and he's a one trick shiny pony.  He will try to weaponize something and say how evil the cpc is, i'm sure he's hoping trump will win and to use that against the cpc.  But - that message is old. It didn't work very well last election, despite having weaponized covid he did not get that majority he was expecting. 

PP on the other hand is proving to be very very skilled, and his campaign will be fresh.

There usually is a point of 'collapse', where if a party starts to sink in the campaign they tend to keep going and the bottom can fall out.  All the elements are there for that to happen in this case.

Campaigns matter and you NEVER know  and you sure don't know 2 years in advance, but while the polls may fluctuate a little it looks a lot like a blood bath.