Will the Conservatives win any Quebec seats?

[August1991]

I don't think so.

With some polls showing the Tories ahead of the Liberals in Quebec, I have seen some journalists predicting Conservative seats in Quebec. The problem is that the Conservative vote is spread out across Quebec whereas the Liberal vote is concentrated in certain ridings.

I still think the Liberals will win about 10 seats in Quebec, and the Tories will likely win none.

The rise in Tory support in Quebec however will win the Tories seats in Ontario and maybe the Maritimes where headlines will imply that the Tories are once again a "national" party. In addition, in a few Quebec ridings, where the Liberal victory was close (ie. Pettigrew, Frulla, Coderre) the Tories will split the federalist vote and let the BQ get elected.

The Tories appear to be drawing their Quebec support from the Liberals and the BQ, but it is hard to measure how much from either and where, geographically, this support is shifting.

I like this quote from Liza Frulla:

"We didn't really take notice of the Conservatives," she said. "Now if this is the case . . . [that the Tories are gaining ground in Quebec] then we are going to say what the Conservatives really are, really rightist."

G & M

Perhaps most importantly, the rise in Tory support in Quebec will likely deny the BQ a popular vote of over 50%.

[betsy]

I was watching the early news this morning and two journalists (one from Montreal) are predicting that Harper will win some seats in Quebec. Monteal guy says there's really some movements in Quebec.

I don't know when this interview with them was conducted...I'm only assuming it was sometime after the debate.

I guess it's still too soon to assume anything at this point....boy, this is stressful. For me.

[Rovik]

I don't think the Conservatives will win any seats in Quebec.

They will end up getting more votes but at the expense of the Liberals and perhaps even helping the BQ win a couple more seats.

[Slavik44]

What about that Louis Saint Laurent riding?

While the CPC may not win any seats I belive they might have a chance, however small. Last election the CPC came second in the Saint Laurent riding losing by a little more than 3,000 votes. Given the CPC's climb in the polls I would think that while the riding may not be won by the CPC it appears as though it could still be a possibility. Although I am not to familiar with Quebec so I could very well be wrong but by the numbers it appears the CPC has a slight chance of grabing a seat in quebec.

[seabee]

It may be a tad premature to make any prediction about the CPC in Québec, as there is still a debate in French scheduled for tonight. Probably, Duceppe will target Harper as his main target, as the Liberals are now quite lame (though he will certainly make some mileage attacking Martin on the Option-Canada scandal, whith plays much bigger in Québec than in the ROC). It would, after all, be a wetdream come true for independantists in Québec if a federal government be led by a ROC-based party with no representation from Québec; it would no longer be provincial vs federal politics only, but in addition English- versus French-Canada.

Let us wait and see a bit.

[tml12]

It may be a tad premature to make any prediction about the CPC in Québec, as there is still a debate in French scheduled for tonight. Probably, Duceppe will target Harper as his main target, as the Liberals are now quite lame (though he will certainly make some mileage attacking Martin on the Option-Canada scandal, whith plays much bigger in Québec than in the ROC). It would, after all, be a wetdream come true for independantists in Québec if a federal government be led by a ROC-based party with no representation from Québec; it would no longer be provincial vs federal politics only, but in addition English- versus French-Canada.

Let us wait and see a bit.

I think that is a good assessment...

[Bakunin]

Its hard to say, i think at this point anything could happend, we will see in a week.

here are 3 possibility:

1) the conservative continue to gain ground to remplace the liberal and a get a couple of vote from the BQ.

2) Ppl could start to panic and the liberal could get more vote coming from the BQ wanting to stop the Conservative.

3) It could stay like this and help the bloc win more seats at the expense of losing its 50+1%.

[tml12]

Its hard to say, i think at this point anything could happend, we will see in a week.

here are 3 possibility:

1) the conservative continue to gain ground to remplace the liberal and a get a couple of vote from the BQ.

2) Ppl could start to panic and the liberal could get more vote coming from the BQ wanting to stop the Conservative.

3) It could stay like this and help the bloc win more seats at the expense of losing its 50+1%.

I think #3 makes the most sense Bakunin. A rise in Conservative support here will definitely affect the Liberal vote but also hurt the Bloc. I think we can expect Duceppe to really go after Harper tonight...

[kimmy]

Is it possible that the BQ will get fewer votes, yet win more seats, this time around?

I suspect that a lot of Quebec voters who intend to vote BQ do so because they hate the Liberals, not because they actually support separation.

I also suspect that a lot of Quebec voters who intend to vote Liberal do so because they oppose the BQ, not because they support the Liberals.

I also suspect that a lot of Quebec voters who right now are toying with the idea of voting CPC will probably, by election time, have moved into one of the two groups I just mentioned.

After the election we'll be able to look at it riding-by-riding and see what impact (if any) a rise in CPC support in Quebec had. I bet we'll find that when the votes are cast, the CPC support will be smaller than polling suggests, polarized toward Liberal or BQ by the question of whether to vote against the Liberals or vote against separatism.

-k

[tml12]

Is it possible that the BQ will get fewer votes, yet win more seats, this time around?

I suspect that a lot of Quebec voters who intend to vote BQ do so because they hate the Liberals, not because they actually support separation.

I also suspect that a lot of Quebec voters who intend to vote Liberal do so because they oppose the BQ, not because they support the Liberals.

I also suspect that a lot of Quebec voters who right now are toying with the idea of voting CPC will probably, by election time, have moved into one of the two groups I just mentioned.

After the election we'll be able to look at it riding-by-riding and see what impact (if any) a rise in CPC support in Quebec had. I bet we'll find that when the votes are cast, the CPC support will be smaller than polling suggests, polarized toward Liberal or BQ by the question of whether to vote against the Liberals or vote against separatism.

-k

You make some good general points. However, the CPC made some great second place comeback finishings in some Quebec ridings last year. If they remain competitive, there could be a great chance for them.

[Leafless]

No national party will ever make headway into Quebec unless the leader of that party is French and a resident of Quebec. Now we have had enough of that haven't we?

It's all about nationalism in Quebec and as long as that line of thought continues (us against them) Canadian politics will always be dysfunctional and destructive.

Hopefully the English will learn, someday.

[Cameron]

Speaking of Leaders from Quebec, didn't Martin say last night that he was from Quebec??? If so, where was he born?

[Bakunin]

Speaking of Leaders from Quebec, didn't Martin say last night that he was from Quebec??? If so, where was he born?

Paul martin would sell his mother to win the next election, in other word he his willing to say anything to win even if he contradict himself.

[Devyn]

As I am new to this board, and therefore none of you have met me yet, I welcome the chance to show my true colours. I consider myself center-left, and will therefore never support the "Conservatives", who are, in my opinion, Mini-Republicans.

I fear for this country, due to the fact that I am almost positive that the Conservatives will achieve a miniority government, if not majority. They are far ahead in the polls, in all provinces but Quebec, even Ontario. The most I can hope for is a minority government, where two-tier health care and nationalizing CBC will never be tolerated. The government would hopefully be toppled quickly enough, and we would get another Liberal government. Although I support the NDP (for this election) and agree with Layton's statement about "not having to choose between Corruption and Conservatives", I'd take Martin over Harper anyday.

On the matter of Quebec, they will not win many seats, if any. The fact is, the Bloc is the most popular there with the Liberals trailing. The only reason the Quebecois have to vote blue is due to the fact that their chances from seperating are a lot higher if the Conservatives are in.

[Argus]

As I am new to this board, and therefore none of you have met me yet, I welcome the chance to show my true colours. I consider myself center-left, and will therefore never support the "Conservatives", who are, in my opinion, Mini-Republicans.

So right off the bat you're saying you're close-minded and on the far left.

Oh, right, "centre-left" was what you said. You know, I don't think more than a tiny minority of those who are on the far left ever want to admit it. Perhaps even to themselves.

You are NOT centre-left. Sorry if this is news to you. Centre, centre-left, and centre-right voters are those with open minds who can shift from one party to another because they're not rigid in their beliefs and not ideologues. They can see good in many practical policies centre/right/left parties present.

You are not in that group. You've already said so. Your mind is closed and you are not open to change.

Fine. Just don't try and pretend you have any relationship with the centre of the political spectrum.

At least be honest with yourself.

[seabee]

Speaking of Leaders from Quebec, didn't Martin say last night that he was from Quebec??? If so, where was he born?

Mr. Martin is a Franco-Ontarian, not a Québécois by birth. This play to some extent in Québec. However, he has moved to Québec a rather long time ago. His French is not really the language he is most fluent in; he does stammer and hesitate a lot. He is definitely more at ease in English.

[Riverwind]

he does stammer and hesitate a lot.

He does that in English too.

[tml12]

he does stammer and hesitate a lot.

He does that in English too.

The man is a dithering fool. Chretien should sue Martin for his new, hateful approach. He seems to be beating Chretien at his own tricks... :angry:

[August1991]

Speaking of Leaders from Quebec, didn't Martin say last night that he was from Quebec??? If so, where was he born?

Mr. Martin is a Franco-Ontarian, not a Québécois by birth. This play to some extent in Québec. However, he has moved to Québec a rather long time ago. His French is not really the language he is most fluent in; he does stammer and hesitate a lot. He is definitely more at ease in English.

It is redefining the term to call Paul Martin a francophone. He was born in Essex County, near Sarnia, Ontario. His mother was English-speaking. His father, Paul Martin Snr, claimed a French background when he ran against Trudeau in 1968 for the Liberal leadership.

There was a fascinating CBC documentary made in 1968 about the Liberal leadership convention that's now included on this Trudeau DVD. (The documentary has the famous clip of Judy Lamarsh screaming: "We have to stop that bastard.") If you watch it, and watch Paul Martin Snr's frustration at losing power to Trudeau, you will understand Paul Martin Jnr.

Incidentally, Martin Jnr speaks good French but he is far from fluent. It is obviously not his mother tongue.

[tml12]

For the record, and short of getting into a huge debate on what it means to be a Quebecer, I consider Martin to be a Quebecer. He owns property here and that is enough for me.

[Canuck E Stan]

Martin is a Quebecer in his own mind.

French Quebecers don't consider any Anglo in Quebec as one of them.

For the record,Layton was the one who said he was born in Quebec.

[August1991]

Martin is a Quebecer in his own mind.

French Quebecers don't consider any Anglo in Quebec as one of them.

For the record,Layton was the one who said he was born in Quebec.

He did, and it would have helped his cause alot if he had added that he was obviously an anglophone. Instead, he just noted that his father was a minister in the National Assembly.

Harper had the good sense to say in his closing statement that French was obviously not his first language.

The equivalent in English-Canada would be someone from Georgia with a thick drawl stating that they are Canadian because their mother was born in Canada. A smart American in English-Canada will be upfront about their origins.

There are so many pitfalls and dangers and chances for misunderstanding in crossing a linguistic or cultural barrier that it is foolish to add more confusion. People are already suspicious.

[Canuck E Stan]

Conservative wins in Quebec-3 seats

[seabee]

Right now, RDI is broadcasting live a speech by Mario Dumont, leader of the ADQ, saying that he will vote for Harper on the 23rd, and accuses the BQ of being useless.

[Leafless]

Who cares if the Conservatives win any seats in a province that treats Canada like a foreign country.