Canadian inflation jumps in July, raising prospect of another interest rate hike

[CdnFox]

https://www.theglobeandmail.com/business/economy/article-canadas-annual-inflation-rate-rises-to-33-in-july-as-base-year-effect/

Canada’s annual inflation rate surged more than expected to 3.3 per cent in July as core measures eyed by the central bank remained stubbornly high, data showed on Tuesday, increasing the likelihood of another interest rate increase.

Analysts polled by Reuters had forecast inflation would rise to 3.0 per cent from the 27-month low of 2.8 per cent recorded in June. The consumer price index was up 0.6 per cent on a month-over-month basis, Statistics Canada said, also higher than a forecast of a 0.3 per cent gain.

“I think we’re getting another round of spiralling upside risks to inflation in Canada,” said Derek Holt, vice president of capital markets economics at Scotiabank. “Hikes aren’t done in my opinion.”

Money markets increased bets for a quarter-percentage-point rate hike in September.

“We see it as close to a 50-50 proposition whether they hike or not, although we tend to lean towards a hold given the softening job market,” said Jules Boudreau, a senior economist at Mackenzie Investments.

Canada’s economy unexpectedly shed a net 6,400 jobs in July and the jobless rate ticked up to 5.5 per cent, Statscan said earlier this month.

Grocery prices rose 8.5 per cent in July, the slowest pace in more than a year, mainly due to prices for fresh fruit and, to a lesser extent, bakery products, Statscan said.

Excluding food and energy, prices rose 3.4 per cent compared with a 3.5 per cent rise in June. Services prices rose 4.3 per cent annually in July, while the price of goods increased 2.3 per cent.

[CdnFox]

So here's the problem.  As the great man said - "inflation is always and everywhere a monetary phenomenon".  Of course - he dkdn't know about the gst  

Leading up to covid Justin ramped up spending significantly. During covid Justin dumped hundreds of billions of dollars in unearned money into the economy. Some of that was unavoidable, we had to deal with people being forced to stay at home, but a lot of it was wasteful and unnecessary.  AND he ALSO increased other spending at that time.

That's what causes excess inflation.

The bank raises interest rates to hoover a lot of that excess money back OUT of the market. It discourages people from spending and that in theory puts things back to normal and inflation cools.  But - Justin is STILL INCREASING SPENDING.  Each budget goes UP and he's borrowing 40 billion more dollars this year alone.

So while the bank is trying to pump money out of the economy,  Justin is trying to dump money right back in.

So basically this is going to go on for a while and we're kinda screwed. 

[Moonbox]

JuStIN CaUSeD the inFlatIon.  ?

[CdnFox]

27 minutes ago, Moonbox said:

JuStIN CaUSeD the inFlatIon.  ?

 There are few things stupider than claiming that because something happened somewhere else it should be the same here.

It's the kind of excuse weak minded liberals give desperately trying to defend their m0ron of choice from legitimate critisism.

 

But of course what could we expect from you, considering you had to be told that the BoC sets the interest rates    Or is it the rest of the world that does? I mean - they have interest rates too right?

[Moonbox]

9 hours ago, CdnFox said:

 There are few things stupider than claiming that because something happened somewhere else it should be the same here.

Everywhere else.  

We're part of a global economy.  When prices for globally traded goods and commodities rise, as they did in 2022, prices go up in Canada as well.  If we're talking stupid, let's look at the angry muppet who can't grasp this very basic relationship.  

 

[CdnFox]

13 hours ago, Moonbox said:

Everywhere else. 

Nope.  not everywhere.  Japan didn't. for example.

Quote

We're part of a global economy. 

But it wasn't just globally traded items that rose.  At all.  Nor was there suddenly demand for many of the things that went up. 

What happened is that hundreds of billions of dollars that were not earned got dumped into the economy. And that ALWAYS spikes the hell out of inflation.

Now - i'll grant you that while we overspent on covid there was no chance we weren't going to spend SOMETHING. And some things like cars were going to spike.

But no where near this much.  And most of his spending wasn't even on covid relief.

I've shown the math before with various stories and other facts - the low end says he's responsible directly for 1.5 percent of the inflation increase and the higher end put it at 3 and it's probably closer to 3.5 on the high end.  So we were at 2, which is appropriate, and we jumped up 6 more - 2 -3 percent of which is his fault.

And that never goes away - so any inflation today is on TOP of  that excess.  And to combat that the BoC has had to raise interest rates and KEEPS having to do so because trudeau keeps dumping money into the economy.

So yea - you can't blame the whole 8 percent on him. But you absolutely CAN blame the fact it went over 6 on him AND the fact interest rates have had to go as high as they did because of him.  And we've already had that talk.

[Moonbox]

10 hours ago, CdnFox said:

Nope.  not everywhere.  Japan didn't. for example.

Japan went from decades of near-zero to negative inflation to +2.5 in a year.  Japan's also a case study on bad/misguided monetary and economic policy, with the period from the late 80's to now being coined "The Lost Decades".  

10 hours ago, CdnFox said:

I've shown the math before with various stories and other facts - the low end says he's responsible directly for 1.5 percent of the inflation increase and the higher end put it at 3 and it's probably closer to 3.5 on the high end. 

No, you've never shown that.  You've waved your hands around and bullshitted some numbers, as you always to do, and refused to provide real evidence.  If you can show me an actual economist worth anything saying anything remotely resembling what you describe above, maybe they'll be worth listening to, but nobody cares about your balogna napkin math. 

 

 

[CdnFox]

24 minutes ago, Moonbox said:

Japan went from decades of near-zero to negative inflation to +2.5 in a year. 
 

Translation - Blah blah blah blah reason why it's ok i was wrong blah blah.

Not everywhere . Sorry.   And lots of places were lower and for a shorter time.  Period.

Quote

No, you've never shown that. 

I have quite clearly.  Even broken it down - .5-1 percent due to carbon tax, 1 - 2 percent due to trudeau's other money policies and spending, and that's before we get into anything to do with productivity or the like.

AND - that is before we even take into account the immigration issue. Which is a LARGE driver of inflation.

I see you're back to  your usual sealioning.  "REPOST THE INFO YOU"VE POSTED BEFORE AND IF YOU DO I"LL MAKE YOU REPOST IT AGAIN TILL  I"M RIGHT!!!!!"  lol!!  Well you're nothing if not predictable.

Hey how about this - if you disagree, post your own math and research to show the actual effect on inflation?  If you think i'm wrong - then show what the real numbers are 

 

In the meantime - having proven that Trudeau's policies have substantially contributed to inflation previosuly, here's some proof regarding immigration's effect that you can deny i ever provided later. 

https://financialpost.com/news/economy/immigration-impact-bank-of-canada-inflation'

https://financialpost.com/pmn/business-pmn/bmo-sees-immigration-to-canada-boosting-inflation-in-short-term

Need more? Because there's more.

 

Trudeau is still flooring the gas while the BoC is trying to stomp on the breaks.  Trudeau is responsible for a significant portion of our inflation/interest shock problem and will continue to be.

Sorry that the truth doesn't favvor your beloved leader.

[Moonbox]

38 minutes ago, CdnFox said:

Translation - Blah blah blah blah reason why it's ok i was wrong blah blah.

Not everywhere . Sorry.   And lots of places were lower and for a shorter time.  Period.

A lot of places?  ?

How many can you count there?  The fact that you can point a couple of countries mired in recession with lower inflation means that inflation spikes weren't global?  For every country you can show that has lower inflation than Canada's, I can provide 10+ that are higher! 

38 minutes ago, CdnFox said:

I have quite clearly.  Even broken it down - .5-1 percent due to carbon tax, 1 - 2 percent due to trudeau's other money policies and spending, and that's before we get into anything to do with productivity or the like.

Yes, you made those numbers up.  

38 minutes ago, CdnFox said:

https://financialpost.com/news/economy/immigration-impact-bank-of-canada-inflation'

https://financialpost.com/pmn/business-pmn/bmo-sees-immigration-to-canada-boosting-inflation-in-short-term

Need more? Because there's more.

That's not what you were asked to provide evidence for.  ?

You've told us that 3.5% of last year's inflation was caused by Justin.  You claim you have evidence and math supporting it, so show it.  

Otherwise, we can chalk this up as another example of you cluelessly bullshitting, and then lying about the evidence that you pretend you have but won't provide....AGAIN!  ?

 

[CdnFox]

45 minutes ago, Moonbox said:

A lot of places?  ?

Yep.  Congrats  you've achieved the intellectual capacity of a parrot
 

Quote

How many can you count there? 

Quite a few - but if i do you'll ask me to count them again
 

Quote

The fact that you can point a couple of countries mired in recession with lower inflation means that inflation spikes weren't global? 

You said "everywhere" .  I pointed out that it's not "Everywhere".   Now you're butt hurt about it.

A LOT of places did not experience the inflation we did.  And a lot of agencies  have pointed out that trudeau's policies are to blame for why it's this high and persistant. I've previously linked to a scotiabank report that accuses Justin of ignoring his responsiblity  to work with the BoC on inflation instead of fighting them for example.

Sorry the truth doesn't support your echo chamber kiddo

Quote

Yes, you made those numbers up. 

no, they're from the BoC and a few other sources. And i 've posted those previously.

Are you saying the BoC just made them up?

SHOW ME YOUR NUMBERS if you think that's not correct.

Quote

You claim you have evidence and math supporting it, so show it.  

I already did. I don't play this game where you ask for the same info again and again and i post it again and again and you still pretend i didn't.

If you disagree - SHOW ME YOUR NUMBERS

Quote

That's not what you were asked to provide evidence for.  

I wasn't asked for anything.  Those are the evidence of the one topic (immigraiton) i haven't previously provided information on.  So i'm doing it now.  I'm sure in 3 or 4 posts you'll claim i never have

Sounds like i hit a nerve there.  Don't want to talk about that? Well lets anyway

You claim justin isn't responsible for any of the inflation - but it's clear that high immigration levels are making inflation worse. Do you disagree with that?

Answer the questions for a change

[Moonbox]

1 hour ago, CdnFox said:

no, they're from the BoC and a few other sources. And i 've posted those previously.

Are you saying the BoC just made them up?

I'm saying that you made them up.  I'm saying that you've not posted the sources and evidence you keep claiming you have, you just keep refusing and saying you did.  You've chosen to once again natter on for half a page about why you're refusing to cite the information you say you have instead of just dropping a link with a quote.  That's dumb.  

1 hour ago, CdnFox said:

I wasn't asked for anything.

Let me refresh:

Show it.  

 

[CdnFox]

4 minutes ago, Moonbox said:

I'm saying that you made them up.  I'm saying that you've not posted the sources and evidence you keep claiming you have,

 

Yeah - you're lying to save your ass, i get it.   But - repeating a lie doesnt' make it true.

Like i said - if you disagree with the figures then show me yours.

Oh - that's right. You know i'm right so you can't provide any LOLOLOL!

 

Quote

Show it.  

Already did - so... your turn.  If you think those figures are wrong  - show me yours

I mean you're not lying or anything are you?  You must have some figures in mind if you disagree -  SHOW IT

[Moonbox]

Just now, CdnFox said:

Already did - so... your turn.  If you think those figures are wrong  - show me yours

I mean you're not lying or anything are you?  You must have some figures in mind if you disagree -  SHOW IT

Where!? ?

We've had half a dozen of the same inflation debates in the last month.  Surely you could provide a single instance where you've provided evidence supporting your bone-headed inflation claims. 

Instead, you carry on like a clown, giving multi-paragraph explanations on why you won't (can't) provide any.  Funny stuff.  ?

[CdnFox]

7 minutes ago, Moonbox said:

We've had half a dozen of the same inflation debates in the last month

Well then you MUST have some idea of what the real figures are.  I mean - other than the ones you got utterly shamed for regarding the minimum wage debacle you tried to sell

So lets see your numbers.  If you claim i'm wrong - lets see it. If you're not claiming i'm wrong you're just patheticly sealioning,

Post your numbers or admit i'm right.

Oh - and while we're at it - answer the question i asked.  Unless you're just completely full of crap and are lying to protect trudeau

Edited August 17, 2023 by CdnFox

[Moonbox]

4 minutes ago, CdnFox said:

Post your numbers or admit i'm right.

That's not how it works, clown.  My claim is that you made up your numbers, bullshitted your math and lied about having evidence for it.  You could clear it up pretty quickly with the evidence you say you have...except up you won't...because you can't!  ?

7 minutes ago, CdnFox said:

Oh - and while we're at it - answer the question i asked.  Unless you're just completely full of crap and are lying to protect trudeau

This one?

2 hours ago, CdnFox said:

You claim justin isn't responsible for any of the inflation - but it's clear that high immigration levels are making inflation worse. Do you disagree with that?

I never disagreed with this, nor did I ever claim Justin isn't responsible for any of the inflation.  You're arguing with yourself again.  ?

[CdnFox]

Just now, Moonbox said:

That's not how it works, clown. 

 

Oh dear - you're beginning to realize you're losing this again and you're starting to get grumpy. Try to avoid the full on hissy fit if you can.

And that's exactly how it works.

So lets see your numbers. Instead of sealioning either show that i'm wrong or agree that i'm right.

Quote

never disagreed with this, nor did I ever claim Justin isn't responsible for any of the inflation. 

Ok - so now we agree that it's not that its just a "global" issue - justin is responsible for our inflation being this high. (and you did disagree with that btw but we'll let that slide  )

So the only question now is how much of it he's responsible for.  So - how much of our inflation would YOU say the housing crisis and his carbon tax/monetary policy is responsible for?  Simple enough question.

[Moonbox]

51 minutes ago, CdnFox said:

So lets see your numbers. Instead of sealioning either show that i'm wrong or agree that i'm right.

My claim is that your numbers are made up, and that the evidence and facts you say you have don't actually exist.  The burden of proof is on the affirmative claim.  Squawking about sealioning and carrying on for pages and pages about why you can't provide a simple cite is for a very specific claim just makes you look like a clown.   

Until you post your evidence, I'm just going to keep reposting this: 

Provide the math and facts you say you have, or we know that you're making shit up.  

[CdnFox]

1 hour ago, Moonbox said:

My claim is that your numbers are made up,

So you're admitting the numbers are correct, you're trying to make the argument about he source.    Well that's pretty sad.

EIther the numbers are correct or not - lets see your numbers. If you don't have any to offer then you can't dispute mine can you.  So either admit you're full of crap or come up with your own numbers.

AND - now that you've ADMITTED that Justin is responsible for our inflation - lets hear how much you think immigration is contributing to that. I haven't even factored that in yet.

SO - PUT UP OR SHUT UP.  Enough trolling and lies - either you can or you can't.

Justin is responsible for between 1.5 and 3.5 percent of our inflation - PROVE ME WRONG OR ADMIT YOU'VE BEEN TRYING TO DISTRACT FROM THE TRUTH.

[eyeball]

2 hours ago, CdnFox said:

...you're trying to make the argument about the source

What source?

[West]

On 8/16/2023 at 8:40 AM, Moonbox said:

Everywhere else.  

We're part of a global economy.  When prices for globally traded goods and commodities rise, as they did in 2022, prices go up in Canada as well.  If we're talking stupid, let's look at the angry muppet who can't grasp this very basic relationship.  

 

And you exasperate that by increasing the price of fuel by 40 cents a liter? 

[Moonbox]

There is no source.  He's pulled bullshit numbers out of his ass and now he's squirming and squawking because he knows he can't back them up. 

3.5% of extra inflation last year - all Trudeau's fault, as you say, and you apparently have the math and facts to prove it.  

Let's see them?  ?

[CdnFox]

3 hours ago, eyeball said:

What source?

The ones previously given.     It's what you left wing nutbars love to do - if you can't fight the argument you just demand that people repost the same sources again and again and if that fails try to discredit the source etc etc.

But - same offer to you: if you feel the numbers are off provide your own information and sources.  Even moonbat had to admit justin is responsible for a significant portion of the inflation, so it's not like the number is zero. Whatcha got?

I mean - it's not like you're just trying to distract from justin's failures here right? Right? Naawww - you wouldn't do that.  So lets see what you have,

[CdnFox]

2 hours ago, Moonbox said:

There is no source.  He's pulled bullshit numbers out of his ass and now he's squirming and squawking because he knows he can't back them up. 

3.5% of extra inflation last year - all Trudeau's fault, as you say, and you apparently have the math and facts to prove it.  

Let's see them?  ?

So where are your numbers? 

i"ve posted my numbers - lets see yours unless you're just a lying sack of shit?  I mean if that's the case - go ahead and ask for info you've already got again

You're sounding totally desperate   you want to talk about ANYTHING OTHER than the numbers, ANYTHING to hide justin's failures

Also - how much did his immigration hurt us? You never answered that? LOL

Sorry kiddo  Justin is responsible for a hell of a big hunk of our inflation, and no amount of sealioning or distraction is goign to change that. 

[Moonbox]

8 hours ago, CdnFox said:

The ones previously given. 

The ones you pretend you've given, just like the ones you pretend you have.  ?

Show us ANYTHING that comes close to matching your claim here.  If you've already done it, it should be even easier to find...

Unless it's more made up bullshit.  

[CdnFox]

1 hour ago, Moonbox said:

The ones you pretend you've given, just like the ones you pretend you have.  ?

Show us ANYTHING that comes close to matching your claim here.  If you've already done it, it should be even easier to find...

Unless it's more made up bullshit.  

So can't dispute what i've posted at all eh?  Just trying to distract from the truth?  Well - typical liberal.  Of course you can't dispute the numbers, they're real and proven.

So now that you've accepted you can't dispute the BoC's claims of about 1.5 - 3 percent of inflation (and at this point probably 3.5 on the upper end as  i noted) being due to carbon tax and trudeau's sptending - lets move on and look at his immigration policy's effect

 

Here's the TL/DR for below:   On top of the amount the BoC claims trudeau's spending and carbon tax policies cost - there's an ADDITIONAL 2.4 percent inflation  directly resulting from his immigration policy.

So, without justin's policies our inflation rate would be half of what it was (and/or interest rates would be lower).

You can add that to the pile of things  you have to deny to protect Trudeau and pretend i never gave any evidence of as well

 

 

 

So,  in the SHORT term, the increase in rent and housing costs is due pretty much exclusively to the difference between the supply and the demand. Too many people, too few houses.  Rents in june 2022 for example were up 19 percent year over year in vancouver and 15 percent in Toronto.  With interest rate hikes and housing prices going up home buyers are in even worse shape.   Rental.com shows the average in 2023 about 9.37 but that mixes house sizes a bit.  SO lets error on the side of caution so to speakB and use an inflation rate of 10 percent, that's obviously more than generous.

https://rentals.ca/national-rent-report

https://www.ctvnews.ca/business/rent-prices-going-through-the-roof-as-inflation-soars-1.5949990

More than 40 percent of people are spending over 30 percent of their income on housing  - 20 percent spend more than half.

https://www.rentalhousingbusiness.ca/affordable-housing-crisis-affects-one-in-five-renters-in-canada-study/

So in real terms for many people that inflation rate has the biggest impact on their lives vs anything else.  But... lets leave it at 30 percent right now.

When the pandemic struck and mmigraiton was halted, rents fell like crazy. There can be no doubt that immigration drives up those prices.

So  if 30 percent of the average person's costs went up about 10 percent - or roughly 3 percent actual inflation to them.

Now the official inflation rate mixes other things in and deliberately doesn't weigh housing as high as it really is for various reasons, they also exclude some of the highest rent areas like downtown toronto or vancouver, using a wider average instead. THis is to keep the rate from jumping up and down a lot (they claim).

But we've taken the lower averages as well.

 

Now - the cpi bounces around and changes the weight of items all the time  but - housing is about 30 percent.  So we were on the money there

https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/pub/62f0014m/62f0014m2021011-eng.htm

So when inflation hit 8 percent -  about 2.4 percent of that was directly due to trudeau's increasing immigraiton policy.

When we add the original amount - between 1.5 and 3 (which again is generous) and say average it to 2 - then we find that at our 8 percent inflation about 4.5 percent of it is directly 1 to 1 related to justin's policies. 

And this doesn't even account for how the immigrants drive prices up on other good by increasing demand.

Trudeau is responsible for more than half our inflation - and remember that inflation is actually still increasing in praactical terms, they're just converting it to interest rates.