Pierre Poilievre’s Conservatives widen their lead over Justin Trudeau’s Liberals with vast majority of Canadians wanting change, poll suggests

[CdnFox]

5 hours ago, Michael Hardner said:

Got a cite for this?

 

Yep  but we know you don't care about the truth.  Hell you could have looked it up.

Quote

So it doesn't matter if the CPC is ahead in the polls if it's losing in seat rich Ontario and Quebec.

No, just ontario. Harper would have had his majority even if every seat in quebec was against him.  The CPC doesn't need quebec.

It does need ontario. but it's already ahead there

 

Quote

And 338 themselves publish their accuracy Metrics.

Yes - that's why we can clearly see the flaws.

Quote

But it's 100% aligned that you wouldn't support any source that doesn't produce information to make you happy.

I literally posted THEIR results - the last 5 polls or so all considerably higher for the cpc than them. That is from THEIR site.

 

I get it. You're in denial.  Your beloved liberals are going to get kicked out next  election and you were REALLY hoping it would be a minority gov't and they'd get back in soon. So you want desperately for the facts NOT to be true.

Sorry kiddo - the evidence is pointing towards a majority, and historically he can expect one more after that.

[SpankyMcFarland]

I wouldn’t fault him on appearance at all. Plus he’s young, energetic, sober, healthy and isn’t scandal-prone on personal finances or other fronts. On that basic stuff, which does matter, he ticks the boxes. 

Edited July 8, 2023 by SpankyMcFarland

[CdnFox]

23 minutes ago, SpankyMcFarland said:

I wouldn’t fault him on appearance at all. Plus he’s young, energetic, sober, healthy and isn’t scandal-prone on personal finances or other fronts. On that basic stuff, which does matter, he ticks the boxes. 

At the end of the day Canadians tend to respond to someoen who appears 'strong', and he definitely DOES give off that vibe.   Harper didn't really have that. I mean, he did A LITTLE but it was more in a sort of "i think he's trying to distract me while someone sneaks up behind me and clubs me" sort of way.

[CdnFox]

9 hours ago, WestCanMan said:

The pollsters always predict that the libs will win considerably more votes and yet the CPC actually won the popular vote the last two elections in a row. 

Canadian pollsters are no more reliable or honest than our MSM. "Polls" are just a prop that the MSM uses to say "the racists and populists are in second place, the golden child is winning! Love is triumphing over hate!" 

You kind of have to know how to read the polls to get the most out of them. They're not INaccurate but they are MOSTLY useful for tracking trends.  And in an election they track momentum, and momentum is everything.

They all have PP trending up steadily over time. That tells us something. Popularity wise he's edging up too, which is also important.

When it comes to the actual elections they try harder, and most are relatively accurate. But - it's critical to remember, the one thing pollsters have failed at time and again is guessing what the voter turn out will be. 

For example, a few elections back the pollsters all were CERTAIN of a strong ndp win in british columbia, right up to the night of the election.

But it was a strong liberal gov't instead. When the numbers were analized and the research done, it was crystal clear the pollsters were dead right but the ndp vote stayed home.  The demographics which strongly said they'd vote ndp just did not get out and vote.  SO the polls appeared to be wayyy off.

 

[Guest]

5 hours ago, CdnFox said:

Harper was a dick and had all the personality of a yeast infection. 

I can't say I have ever heard a personality being described like that. But its fitting, eerily.

[CdnFox]

50 minutes ago, Perspektiv said:

I can't say I have ever heard a personality being described like that. But its fitting, eerily.

Right after he got elected first time he was in the legislature during question period and the opposition made a comment about him "seducing voters" with his campaign promises.  He stood up and said, "the opposition claims that i've been "seducing" voters. That is rediculous. My wife is in attendence today in the Gallery and can attest to the fact that i've never been able to 'seduce' anyone in my entire life!"

He had no personality, but - At least he owned it

[I am Groot]

16 hours ago, SpankyMcFarland said:

But does it matter how a politician feels about something if that’s not reflected in their political behaviour? 

It certainly seems to matter during election time as the media were filled with suspicions and paranoia about what he'd do despite his pledges not to. Same with Scheer. 

[CdnFox]

17 hours ago, I am Groot said:

It depends on how the votes fall, especially if the NDP vote remains low.

 

Sure.  That's why it's a prediction.  But - they can make reasonable guesses about the probabilities.  At 38 percent the cpc has a very good chance of taking a weak majority gov't but it is by no  means guaranteed.  At 40 that chance is very high, and it's most likely a strong cpc majority.  But - even at 40 it's still POSSIBLE they could get a minority, although pretty damn unlikely.  Statistically they could still possibly even lose, tho that's pretty much fantasy.

Quote

Will it?

Almost certainly.  Not guaranteed but almost.

Quote

But here’s what’s new. There is a real chance of them forming a government next time, even if they don’t win the most seats: finishing behind the Conservatives, that is, not only in the popular vote, but also in seats won. 

That hasn't actually changed.  Remember the ndp and libs tried to do a deal under harper to do exactly that.

Quote

Assuming the NDP were game to repeat the arrangement, the Liberals could make a persuasive case that they stood a greater chance of forming a stable government than the Conservatives.

Given the special loathing the present Conservative Leader, Pierre Poilievre, excites among progressives, moreover – the sense, often expressed, that he represents something new and dark in Canadian politics – they may well feel entitled, if not morally obliged, to do whatever it takes to keep him away from the reins of power.

https://www.theglobeandmail.com/opinion/article-rule-by-the-second-place-the-coming-crisis-of-legitimacy-in-federal/

So here's the issue with that.

THe exact same things were true under harper. "hidden agenda", "soldiers in our streets",  blah blah blah - Harper was an evil far right threat to freedom, democracy and gay marriage. But EVEN THO THEY TRIED THEY couldn't form a coalition against them

 

And the problem there is the timing and the numbers. To form gov't INSTEAD of the CPC then the libs and dips would ahve to a) have a deal in place to put in front of the AG  basically AS SOON as the election was over and not any later.  And you're never going to keep that kind of deal making out of the pubilc eye, and if it gets out DURING the election it would likely sink both of them and and PP a large majority.

Secondly it's almost impossible to do such a deal till you see what each party has in the way of seats.  That's how you negotiate how much your side will "Get".

Then there's the numbers.  If the CPC has a strong minority, then it is almost certain that the libs and ndp DO NOT have enough seats to form a majority as they do right now. THe math just doesn't work, unless the bloc collapses entirely which the polling says is VERY unlikely.  So - they would ALSO have to get the bloc on board. And that his VERY unlikely, except possibly as a ways and means and that's a very unstable gov't.

So - unless it happens right away the cpc are in power and now they have to bring down his gov't and ask the AG if they can form one.

And the tradition is that if it's been MORE than 6 months since the last election - that is NOT allowed and they go back to the polls.  Only now the libs are running as the 'lib ndp' coalition and there's no getting around it.

the exact scenario you're proposing happened under harper, who prorogued parliament so he coudn't be voted out and ran the clock down on the 6 month mark  and the lib/ndp coalition fell apart and next election harper got a majority.

 

And on a final note - the rest of the liberals want justin gone. He's been there too long. They're chomping at the bit for a leadership race. THey EXPECT to lose the next election, they're just hoping to not lose it too bad.  If they actually win then fine but they won't be doing a deal with the NDP to keep it afloat.

 

[I am Groot]

9 hours ago, CdnFox said:

Right after he got elected first time he was in the legislature during question period and the opposition made a comment about him "seducing voters" with his campaign promises.  He stood up and said, "the opposition claims that i've been "seducing" voters. That is rediculous. My wife is in attendence today in the Gallery and can attest to the fact that i've never been able to 'seduce' anyone in my entire life!"

He had no personality, but - At least he owned it

Harper had personality. It's just that he was wooden in front of the cameras. He was that rare beast, an introverted politician. He was never comfortable in public speaking.

Who else here was stunned when he showed up at the NAC with Yo-Yo Ma playing the piano and singing?

[Queenmandy85]

338 now has the Grits and the Socreds in a dead heat at 139 seats apiece. With 32 seats, the Bloc holds the balance of power. Which ever party gets bloc support will have to weather the storm of accusations that they are in bed with the separatists. This is getting to be exciting. 

[CdnFox]

1 hour ago, I am Groot said:

Harper had personality. It's just that he was wooden in front of the cameras. He was that rare beast, an introverted politician. He was never comfortable in public speaking.

 

Right? Which is almost a contradiction in terms  

Truth be told if he had a personality that was as strong as his brains he'd probably still be prime minister today.

Quote

Who else here was stunned when he showed up at the NAC with Yo-Yo Ma playing the piano and singing?

And his approvals skyrocketed -  For many canadians it was basically a 'Pinocchio' moment where suddenly he turned into a real little boy. 

[CdnFox]

30 minutes ago, Queenmandy85 said:

338 now has the Grits and the Socreds in a dead heat at 139 seats apiece. With 32 seats, the Bloc holds the balance of power. Which ever party gets bloc support will have to weather the storm of accusations that they are in bed with the separatists. This is getting to be exciting. 

And yet still no change in the actual polling. So they have the SAME polls as before ... but suddenly THEIR score changed.

Fact is not a single poll in over a month has come in with them below 5 points ahead of the libs, and most have them between 6 and 8.

But 338's "combined weighted" rating is 4.  Sooooo ...  Yeah.

A simple average shows 6.2 percentage points ahead of the libs. And if we average that out a bit (pushing libs down and cpc up equally) then accordingto the 338 FEDERAL SIMULATOR it would be a CONSERVATIVE minority.

 

 

And interestingly the bloc would hold the balance of power.  But the CPC coudl do a deal with any ONE major party and keep their gov't afloat.

With the liberal leader gone and the libs going into a leadership race,  and the ndp possibly in teh same boat,  and the bloc looking to expand it's reach over the liberals - it would be the next best thing to a majority.

 

This is all from 338.  So right now it looks like the CPC are polling about 10 seats short of a bare majority.  If they keep going as they have been they will be into majority territory by the end of the year, possibly as early as mid fall.

 

[CdnFox]

10 minutes ago, Contrarian said:

That's correct, servant, focus on the data and not offend people, good servant. 

Will too will vote conservative while spitting the screen on their foot soldiers, same with the liberal's foot soldiers.

Oh look it's the drunk russian.  Yawn.

[CdnFox]

Oh look it's the drunken russian again, and he's drooling.  Yawn.

[CdnFox]

15 minutes ago, Contrarian said:

Now, you are playing real Chud territory, to not quote me to get the last word.

I am not Russian, but I am willing for anyone to show my passports, if any real intelligence officers are patrolling around, they can message me, and will show them. 

I did more work against Russian propaganda on this forum than a half-Irish narcissist ever did.

Scumbag.

Contrarian is like a slinky - he doesn't have much purpose, but it's fun to push him down the stairs.  

[CdnFox]

2 minutes ago, Contrarian said:

Man, so now the customer service sends you a few attention grabs, 1 liner (BOLD) for low attention span folks.

What are you hoping, a mob member to come and defend you?

Nobody is here for you.

Because, no matter what issues you have, I do too, you leave nothing behind, and offend folks daily, hence, why nobody is here for you. 

I do too, but leave something behind. Try it, too.

Contrarian often tells himself he should stop drinking but then he thinks "Why would I listen to a drunken ****** who talks to himself? "

[WestCanMan]

On 7/8/2023 at 11:14 AM, Michael Hardner said:

You're complaining about honesty, and yet your statements are way off.

I decided to check the polls in the last 2 days before the last election, 1/3 had the Tories winning, 2/3 had the Liberals winning. Only one poll out of 13 overstated the vote for either party, and that was for Liberal s.  

They make their money based on how accurate they are, so it doesn't make sense that they would be lazy or dishonest or no one would believe them.

Of course there's always a bunch of people who sit back with their feet up and say that the polls are dishonest or lazy... and we all count on you guys to be out there filling the room with noise.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_2021_Canadian_federal_election

You're quoting ONE SPECIFIC TYPE OF POLLING DATA from ONE SPECIFIC DAY and pretending that's a complete overview of the whole topic. Of course you know that's completely misleading, right?

Pollsters cite popularity of the parties in general, and they always have the Liberals up, and not by a margin that's small enough to account for an election where the CPC win the popular vote.

When Trudeau does something stupid/immoral the MSM just says "OMG LOOK AT THESE POLLS THAT PROVE NO ONE GIVES A SHIT!" instead of just reporting on whatever happened. 

That's all that polls are: a tool for the MSM to pretend that the public conforms to the MSM's biases and opinions. "This is what the cool kids are saying..."

[WestCanMan]

On 7/8/2023 at 8:15 PM, CdnFox said:

For example, a few elections back the pollsters all were CERTAIN of a strong ndp win in british columbia, right up to the night of the election.

But it was a strong liberal gov't instead. When the numbers were analized and the research done, it was crystal clear the pollsters were dead right but the ndp vote stayed home.  The demographics which strongly said they'd vote ndp just did not get out and vote.  SO the polls appeared to be wayyy off.

I watched Narcos on Netflix about Mexican and South American drug lords, and one of the interesting things in it was an episode where one of the drug leaders (Escobar iirc) wanted to influence an election, and they figured that all they needed to do was alter the voting data that was being released to the public, and that people would just stay home and not bother to vote if they saw that their side was losing. 

It's how the CBC operates 24/7. 

[CdnFox]

6 minutes ago, WestCanMan said:

I watched Narcos on Netflix about Mexican and South American drug lords, and one of the interesting things in it was an episode where one of the drug leaders (Escobar iirc) wanted to influence an election, and they figured that all they needed to do was alter the voting data that was being released to the public, and that people would just stay home and not bother to vote if they saw that their side was losing. 

It's how the CBC operates 24/7. 

Yes - for sure.  Voter suppression is a very popular and powerful tactic. This is why negative campaigns tend to work pretty well.  IF people dont' like their guy then they just don't vote. IF they feel it's hopeless they don't tend to vote.

Of course - this can rebound as well. Sometimes people are SO SURE their person will win they don't bother voting because "he's got this,  i don't need to bother". And many feel that's what happened in that BC election i mentioned . The NDP voters thought it was in the bag,  the liberal voters thought they had a chance if everyone got out to vote.  The ndp stayed home and the libs got out in large numbers.   So you have to walk a bit of a line there

Hopefully that will play a role in our next federal election. Hopefully the liberal Voters will stay home in large numbers Believing that Justin's Time Has Come, and the conservative voters will be excited and get out in large numbers and we'll see a majority.

 

[SpankyMcFarland]

Like JT, Poilievre has excited a fair bit of silly, and at times unseemly, debate about his paternity. His biological mother’s heritage was at least partly Irish, a Farrell on her father’s side, which was touchingly noted on Facebook, but what of his father? If it is known, I honestly can’t see the downside in him talking more freely about that aspect of his life. Might humanize him somewhat. 

Edited July 21, 2023 by SpankyMcFarland

[SpankyMcFarland]

On 7/10/2023 at 3:29 PM, WestCanMan said:

I watched Narcos on Netflix about Mexican and South American drug lords, and one of the interesting things in it was an episode where one of the drug leaders (Escobar iirc) wanted to influence an election, and they figured that all they needed to do was alter the voting data that was being released to the public, and that people would just stay home and not bother to vote if they saw that their side was losing. 

It's how the CBC operates 24/7. 

For me one of the best moments in Narcos was when a Colombian politician, soon to be assassinated by Escobar, lost all patience during a Yankee lecture and testily remarked that the illegal drug problem was primarily a matter of American demand, not Colombian supply. 

Edited July 21, 2023 by SpankyMcFarland

[RedDog]

Central Canada will cave in the usual faggy way.

[SpankyMcFarland]

The basic problem PP has is this: left-wing extremists have scary ideas; right-wing extremists are scary people. The hostility in their rhetoric is much more personal. This is why JT will constantly look to highlight such angry loopers in Tory ranks. 

[Queenmandy85]

I received an email this morning from CPC thanking me for my support. They asked me w fill out a survey. One of the questions was about foreign interference in our elections. At the end of the survey, they asked for my contact details and prominently displayed was an American flag. Someone in Mr. Poilievre’s office is either really stupid or his office has been infiltrated by Americans. You expect this kind of liberal thinking from politicians like MacKenzie King, Preston Manning or John Manley but it has no place in a Conservative Party. 

[CdnFox]

6 hours ago, Queenmandy85 said:

I received an email this morning from CPC thanking me for my support. They asked me w fill out a survey. One of the questions was about foreign interference in our elections. At the end of the survey, they asked for my contact details and prominently displayed was an American flag. Someone in Mr. Poilievre’s office is either really stupid or his office has been infiltrated by Americans. You expect this kind of liberal thinking from politicians like MacKenzie King, Preston Manning or John Manley but it has no place in a Conservative Party. 

Or it wasn't really the conservatives.   Assuming you're not just making it up.  You appear to have a penchant for "stretching the truth' shall we say  

Here's what another liberal is saying about polievre:

https://www.nugget.ca/opinion/columnists/kinsella-pierre-poilievre-looking-strong-in-polls-and-physically/wcm/1c6c9602-6917-42fb-a1a5-8a6372733fcf

KINSELLA: Pierre Poilievre looking strong in polls and physically

Pollsters — reputable, accurate ones — are saying Pierre Poilievre’s Conservatives are ahead of Justin Trudeau’s Liberals by as much as 10 points. That’s a majority government, folks.

Leger, the most accurate pollster in 2021, says the Tories are at 37%, and the Grits at 28%. Abacus, another respected firm, says Poilievre is supported by 38%, and Trudeau only 28%. Nanos says more than half of Canadians want Trudeau gone — and only a quarter want him to stay.

 

PP is doing pretty great.   He's improving his image, he's appealing to more and more people and he's improving his polling numbers a little bit each and every month.