2006 Election Predictions

[August1991]

Post your predictions here. They must add up to 308.

Here are my projections:

Total 308

BQ 61

CPC 113

Lib 102

NDP 32

====

BC 36

CPC 24

Lib 3

NDP 9

Alta 28

CPC 28

Sask 14

CPC 11

Lib 1

NDP 2

Man 14

CPC 7

Lib 3

NDP 4

------

Ontario 106

CPC 32

Lib 62

NDP 12

of which:

Tor 22

Lib 19

NDP 3

905 32

CPC 7

Lib 23

NDP 2

Ont North 10

CPC 1

Lib 5

NDP 4

Ont East 17

CPC 11

Lib 6

Ont SW 22

CPC 10

Lib 9

NDP 3

Simcoe 3

CPC 3

-----

Quebec 75

BQ 61

Lib 14

NB 10

CPC 6

Lib 3

NDP 1

NS 11

CPC 3

NDP 3

Lib 5

PEI 4

Lib 4

Nfld 7

CPC 2

Lib 5

Yk/NWT 3

Lib 2

NDP 1

-----

I think I'm being too generous to the Tories and NDP, and too stingy with the Liberals. Maybe I'll revise that prediction.

[August1991]

Vancouver King:

I'll play this silly game.

CPC 110

Liberal 108

Bloc 62

NDP 28

[tml12]

Post your predictions here.  They must add up to 308.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

If an election were held tomorrow, here are my predictions:

NEWFOUNDLAND AND LABRADOR:

Liberal: 5

Conservative: 2

PEI:

Liberal: 4

NOVA SCOTIA:

Liberal: 5

NDP: 3

Conservatives: 3

NEW BRUNSWICK:

Liberal: 7

NDP: 1

Conservative: 2

QUEBEC:

Bloc: 58

Liberals: 17

ONTARIO:

Liberal: 63

Conservatives: 33

NDP: 10

MANITOBA:

Conservatives: 8

NDP:4

Liberals: 2

SASKATCHEWAN:

Conservatives: 13

Liberals: 1

ALBERTA:

Conservatives: 28

BC:

Conservatives: 17

Liberals: 12

NDP: 7

YUKON/NW TERRITORIES/NUNAVUT:

Liberal: 3

LIBERAL PARTY: 119

CONSERVATIVE PARTY: 106

BLOC: 058

NDP: 025

Those should match...

REMEMBER I will change this as the election carries on...

[August1991]

LIBERAL PARTY:                                              119

CONSERVATIVE PARTY:                                    106

BLOC:                                                            058

NDP:                                                              025

Those should match...

REMEMBER I will change this as the election carries on...

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Sensible predictions, IMV.

[Kiraly]

Too early for me to predict...

...alot will depend on the upcoming campaign.

[tml12]

Too early for me to predict...

...alot will depend on the upcoming campaign.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Even with the poll tied 31-31 I have to stay with my prediction for NOW.

With the country in the precarious minority situation it is in now, many potential NDP voters will poll with the NDP NOW. Yet, if an election were held tomorrow they would switch to Liberal. With the poll tied or with a 2-3 point Conservative lead, this will still translate into a Liberal minority.

Giving the NDP 25 seats was probably a bit generous. I think the Conservatives will make in roads in Ontario, but I still see nothing in Quebec or the territories.

Landslide Annie may just get knocked off. With Harper this close, she just may. The Liberals will retain their stronghold on the Maritimes and make inroads in BC. Harper would need a consistent 5-6 point lead in Part II (January) of the campaign for him to pull off a minority.

Again, this is my POV...

We will look forward to the debate...

[August1991]

Even with the poll tied 31-31 I have to stay with my prediction for NOW.

The SES rolling poll shows the Libs at 38 and the CPC at 30.

Despite a very good Tory opening, hitting all the right notes, baby photos and so on, the Tories cannot break 30. I think that augurs badly for them.

It certainly means that no one important is listening to all these Tory policy announcements. Voters are largely decided, or have decided to decide later. In any case, they're not listening to Harper.

I think the Liberals are going to pull this off, and they may even get a majority. They are consistently polling in the upper 30s.

----

Something else too. I'm surprised at the poor poll results of the NDP.

[Biblio Bibuli]

CONSERVATIVE PARTY: 155

LIBERAL PARTY:             74                               

BLOC:                            59                               

NDP:                              20                              

I may need to fine tune it a little towards the end.

[Canuck E Stan]

All these pollsers,all these polls taken are on decided voters.I heard the undecided may be as high as 43%.Anybody find anything about the Undecided segment?

[Vancouver King]

All these pollsers,all these polls taken are on decided voters.I heard the undecided may be as high as 43%.Anybody find anything about the Undecided segment?

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

No info on undecided other than I consider myself among them.

Isn't conventional wisdom that undecided divide out exactly as decided do?

BTW, my numbers will change too, probably after Vancouver debate #1. Also, so far every post on this thread predicts an increased number of seats for the Bloc & NDP. Hmmmmm...there's a pattern forming here.

[normanchateau]

Isn't conventional wisdom that undecided divide out exactly as decided do?

Yes that's been the pattern in the past but religious people believe in miracles.

[southerncomfort]

CONSERVATIVE PARTY:    155

LIBERAL PARTY:                  74                               

BLOC:                                59                               

NDP:                                  20                               

I may need to fine tune it a little towards the end.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Wow, pretty optimistic wish I could agree but I'm thinking a liberal minority. Why cos the liberals are sitting back right now & on the defencive, waiting for the last couple of weeks then they'll hit hard with the American style attack ads etc. I would like to think Harper can keep up the momentum, we'll see.

[Slavik44]

Total:

CPC: 102

Liberals: 123

NDP: 23

Bloc: 60

[shoop]

SC,

I agree those numbers are optimistic.

I *hope* the Liberals try the strategy you are suggesting. The longer they wait the more likely Harper is to keep the momentum he has been building up so far. I have a feeling they are starting to crap their pants in the Liberal war room.

Wow, pretty optimistic wish I could agree but I'm thinking a liberal minority.  Why cos the liberals are sitting back right now & on the defencive, waiting for the last couple of weeks then they'll hit hard with the American style attack ads etc.  I would like to think Harper can keep up the momentum, we'll see.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

[normanchateau]

CONSERVATIVE PARTY:    155

LIBERAL PARTY:                  74                               

BLOC:                                59                               

NDP:                                  20                               

I may need to fine tune it a little towards the end.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

I stand to be corrected but it appears that if one looks at predictions on this website about a month before the 2004 election, a disproportionate number were predicting a CPC victory. Judging by the poll presented on the mapleleaf web site, a higher percentage of people here plan to vote CPC (37%) and a lower percentage plan to vote Liberal (28%) than will do so in the general population. Could it be wishful thinking that makes people predict outcomes that are inconsistent with current polling data?

[sharkman]

Something I read this morning posters, is that in Ontario the CPC is even with the Liberals in a DEC 1 Ipsos Reid poll. Can anyone find anything more recent on Ontario? That's actually pretty good news, the CPC is resonating with Ontarians.

[shoop]

You are right, but four major polls have been released in the interim that show the Liberals leading Ontario. Here's the best link I have found for keeping track of the major polls. (btw, if anyone has found a better one please share.)

http://predictor.hillandknowlton.ca/

Something I read this morning posters, is that in Ontario the CPC is even with the Liberals in a DEC 1 Ipsos Reid poll.  Can anyone find anything more recent on Ontario?  That's actually pretty good news, the CPC is resonating with Ontarians.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

[shoop]

Probably.

Normie, why don't you make a *non-hypocritical* prediction that you feel is consistent with current polling data?

I stand to be corrected but it appears that if one looks at predictions on this website about a month before the 2004 election, a disproportionate number were predicting a CPC victory. Judging by the poll presented on the mapleleaf web site, a higher percentage of people here plan to vote CPC (37%) and a lower percentage plan to vote Liberal (28%) than will do so in the general population.  Could it be wishful thinking that makes people predict outcomes that are inconsistent with current polling data?

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

[Biblio Bibuli]

Something I read this morning posters, is that in Ontario the CPC is even with the Liberals in a DEC 1 Ipsos Reid poll.  Can anyone find anything more recent on Ontario?  That's actually pretty good news, the CPC is resonating with Ontarians.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Those numbers should go up once Ontarians get a whiff of this powerful tidbit.:

http://www.canada.com/theprovince/news/sto...7e-50e5d849dc8b

(con't) "Harper said he was prepared to send a strong signal to the 20-or-so foreign fishing nations that he'll take steps to push the existing boundaries of the Flemish Cap and the Grand Banks out to the continental shelf and unilaterally seize control of the waters if there is continued infringement of Canadian territory."

Let's see what Mr. Dithers counters with.

[August1991]

I already put this on record in the December 5 Hill Times, so I might as well share it with you here (in a more exact form):

Liberal: 126

Conservative: 105

Bloc Quebecois: 59

New Democrat: 18

My dismally unbudging forecast is perhaps most similar to that of George Stroumboulopoulos, who told the Times "I think the next House will look almost exactly like it did before." Crazy name, not-so-crazy guy!

Colby Cosh

I think now that's a very good prediction. Note that the Libs/NDP will not have a majority.

[Biblio Bibuli]

Post your predictions here. 

So far only six posters have made a prediction on how many seats the CPC will end up with, and five of these are so ridiculously low it isn't even funny.

Slavik44 ................ 102

Colby Cosh ............ 105

tml12 ..................... 106

Vancouver King ...... 110

August1991 ............ 113

Now if you were all to increase those numbers by at least a third before the end of this year, you won't have to endure ridicule at the start of the next one.

Just trying to help.

[Biblio Bibuli]

Post your predictions here. 

So far only six posters have made a prediction on how many seats the CPC will end up with, and five of these are so ridiculously low it isn't even funny.

Slavik44 ................ 102

Colby Cosh ............ 105

tml12 ..................... 106

Vancouver King ...... 110

August1991 ............ 113

Now if you were all to increase those numbers by at least a third before the end of this year, you won't have to endure ridicule at the start of the next one.

Just trying to help.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Colby Cosh's prediction will reach millions of people, so he's got a reason for going low. He doesn't want the CPCers to get complacent & lazy and not bother to get their asses to a voting station ... if they figure that Stephen is a slam-dunk and has it in the bag anyway.

So I won't make fun of him after the election.

[Slavik44]

Post your predictions here. 

So far only six posters have made a prediction on how many seats the CPC will end up with, and five of these are so ridiculously low it isn't even funny.

Slavik44 ................ 102

................................

Now if you were all to increase those numbers by at least a third before the end of this year, you won't have to endure ridicule at the start of the next one.

Just trying to help.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Well now hold on a second, my predictions are far from ridiculous and ridiculing me based on my predictions is a violation of board policy, so I would suggest your new years resolution include a change of heart.

My predictions will of course change, I can't gurantee when they will change, but how about when the next batch of polls come out? from there I can better look at party momentum, regional differences, and comparisons to past elections...beyond that I can't make any promises of what my results will be, but I am glad you care, and just so you get that warm fuzzy feeling I promise that on the day of the election I will post my final predictions just for you.

[Canuck E Stan]

Canuck E Stan's predictions:

LIBERAL PARTY: 75

CONSERVATIVE PARTY: 141( including 1 from Quebec)

BLOC: 62

NDP: 29

Independent 1(Manitoba)

[shoop]

Stan, I think what you are predicitng is plausible if the campaign keeps going as it is.

I have a feeling the Liberals' *hard-hitting* tv ads are going to go over like a lead balloon and get hammered in the press.

Too bad I am currently living in Alberta. The Liberals aren't even pretending to try and win any seats other than Edmonton-Centre. I drove through the riding today and would give Laurie Hawn the decided edge on the sign war in that one. So my only chance to see those ads will be on the news.

Canuck E Stan's  predictions:

LIBERAL PARTY:                                             75

CONSERVATIVE PARTY:                                  141( including 1 from Quebec)

BLOC:                                                            62

NDP:                                                              29

Independent                                                    1(Manitoba)

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>