2006 Election Predictions

[Melanie_]

Canuck E Stan's prediction Rev.3

LIBERAL PARTY: 75

CONSERVATIVE PARTY: 142( including 3 from Quebec)

BLOC: 60

NDP: 29

Independent 2

1(Manitoba)

1(Quebec)

Canuck, I'm curious where you see Manitoba's independent seat coming from, since you seem committed to the idea. The Churchill riding, where the formerly NDP MP is now running as an Independent? She's got some tough competition up there, and it will be a race to watch.

[Canuck E Stan]

Melanie,

Yes you're right it is the Churchill(a large and spread out riding I may add) race that I give to Bev Desjarlais as an independent and former NDP MP.

She had this position for 8 years,so I would think she did a good job for the constituents there.

Her opponents Actress Tina Keeper is running for the Liberals(first time) and newcomer Niki Ashton, 23 daughter of provincial NDP cabinet minister Steve Ashton representing the NDP.

Nezir Ahmad, current city councillor and former mayor of the northeastern community of Flin Flon is representing the Conservatives.

Lot of good choices for Churchill,and the race should be tight,but I think Desjarlais will win because of her experience as a past MP.

I don't think her stand on SSM will be an issue and may get her votes for taking a stand against forced NDP party line voting.

-CES

[speaker]

I'm gonna go out on a limb here and project a landslide victory for the Cats.

[uOttawaMan]

Total

NDP: 300

LIB: 3

CPC:3

BQ:1

GR:1

[Canuck E Stan]

Canuck E Stan's prediction Rev.4

LIBERAL PARTY: 73

CONSERVATIVE PARTY: 146( including 6 from Quebec)

BLOC: 58

NDP: 29

Independent 2

1(Manitoba)

1(Quebec)

[shoop]

Stan,

Who are your independents?

Bev Desjarlais in Manitoba?

I have no idea who it could be in Quebec....

[Canuck E Stan]

Shoop,

Yes, Bev Desjarlais in riding of Churchill,Manitoba is one and the other is

André Arthur a 62 year old former radio personality(for 35 years) in the riding of Portneuf-Jacques-Cartier in Quebec.

-CES

[geoffrey]

The Geoff Prediction v2

CPC 159

BQ 63

LPC 60

NDP 25

IND 1

Lotbiniere-Chutes, Louis St. Laurent, Beauce and Pontiac all going conservative in Quebec.

I also argue that Martin could be in for trouble in his own riding Lasalle-Emard. Who ever thought Quebec would play such a critical role.

Some other interesting ridings I'd predict (the controversial ones anyways):

Edmonton Centre -> CPC

Esquimalt- Juan de Fuca -> CPC

(Troy has appeal to the military base folks here, and the CPC policy on the forces if by far the best. Keith Martin will lose his seat here)

Churchill -> Bev

Kings-Hants -> CPC

(Brison will lose his seat)

Saint John -> CPC

Tobique-Mactaquac -> CPC

(Savoy is gone)

Etobicoke-Lakeshore -> CPC

(Mostly unjustified, just don't like Ignatieff... though apparently some minorities in this riding don't either, the CPC should have run a better candidate and they would have picked this up)

Kenora -> NDP

(Closest 3-party battle in the country)

Newmarket-Aurora -> CPC

(Bye bye Belinda)

Papineau -> BQ

(So happy to see Pettigrew gone)

[Biblio Bibuli]

CONSERVATIVE PARTY: 146( including 6 from Quebec)

Just a couple of days ago you were picking only 3 from Quebec. And when I dared you to predict 5, you LAUGHED at me, saying ..... "Go for it, I'll stay conservative ".

Is picking 6 considered a conservative prediction today?

btw - Bet you my 160 will be closer than your 146.

[Canuck E Stan]

Biblio Bibuli,

At the rate things are going I probably still am conservative(cautiously optimistic).

Either way I think we know the outcome(cautiously optimistic).

Layton's appeal to Liberals to get some representation and forget about this bunch (and work on the new Liberal party) and vote for the NDP,made me think some Liberals in Quebec will do the same and vote Conservative in order to get some representation and cabinet seats on the government side of the House.

In any event Jan 23 will tell the tale.

-CES

btw - Bet you my 160 will be closer than your 146.

-You're on!

[Riverwind]

LIBERAL PARTY: 79

CONSERVATIVE PARTY: 140

BLOC: 54

NDP: 35

[geoffrey]

Come on Sparhawk, be more optimistic .

Heres the deal. The Ontario voters (ie. important voters) are going to vote Conservative more so than the current polls are showing in order to get their representation in the house. Ontario will not allow a majority government without being represented themselves.

Most of the close votes in Ontario will go CPC (where the CPC has a close chance of winning). Throw in a snowstorm on the 23rd and the seat count increases.

[Riverwind]

Come on Sparhawk, be more optimistic

I use the 'inverse hype' rule when predicting highly anticipated events. In other words, the chance of a dramatic outcome is inversly proportional to the amount of media hype preceding the event.

My numbers +/- 5 seats represent a boring outcome that will surprise no one.

[geoffrey]

Come on Sparhawk, be more optimistic

I use the 'inverse hype' rule when predicting highly anticipated events. In other words, the chance of a dramatic outcome is inversly proportional to the amount of media hype preceding the event.

My numbers +/- 5 seats represent a boring outcome that will surprise no one.

Your inverse hype modelling theory has definately proven to be nearly a scientific law when looking at past events.

But I'll still stay optimistic, its the only way I can stomach any more of this election coverage on TV. I'm not watching any more Don Newman if its only for a minority government .

[shoop]

Spar, I think your *inverse hype model* misses the point on this election.

This election is all about change. We are going to see a change in government on January 23rd. How big a change is the only story left to be told.

I would be shocked if the CPC only hits 135 seats (the lower end of your margin of error).

A combined 114 NDP/Liberal seats is also unlikely. I would be shocked if they top 105 between them.

I use the 'inverse hype' rule when predicting highly anticipated events. In other words, the chance of a dramatic outcome is inversly proportional to the amount of media hype preceding the event.

My numbers +/- 5 seats represent a boring outcome that will surprise no one.

[Biblio Bibuli]

Etobicoke-Lakeshore -> CPC

(Mostly unjustified, just don't like Ignatieff... though apparently some minorities in this riding don't either, the CPC should have run a better candidate and they would have picked this up)

In some other thread you're talking about how important it is to be compassionate to those less privleged than yourself, how important it is to be charitable to people who need help, how important it is to identify freeloaders so that the money is not being wasted ...... yet you say you dislike the man that, at least on paper, looks the most like someone who would think exactly along your lines.

I predict that after one term of Harper's Conservatives, Michael Ignatieff will barnstorm this country .... so I would start warming up to him if I were you.

He is the greatest!!

And he will win in Etobicoke, I guarantee that!

[geoffrey]

Etobicoke-Lakeshore -> CPC

(Mostly unjustified, just don't like Ignatieff... though apparently some minorities in this riding don't either, the CPC should have run a better candidate and they would have picked this up)

In some other thread you're talking about how important it is to be compassionate to those less privleged than yourself, how important it is to be charitable to people who need help, how important it is to identify freeloaders so that the money is not being wasted ...... yet you say you dislike the man that, at least on paper, looks the most like someone who would think exactly along your lines.

I predict that after one term of Harper's Conservatives, Michael Ignatieff will barnstorm this country .... so I would start warming up to him if I were you.

He is the greatest!!

And he will win in Etobicoke, I guarantee that!

Torture supporters are questionable in my book most days.

"The Lesser Evil: Political Ethics in an Age of Terror" by Ignatieff himself. Sorry, he doesn't support torture, I misrepresented... he supports "coercive interogations".

I do agree with lots of Ignatieff's beliefs, however, I feel he's a hypocrit on alot of issues, and he's proven to be racially biased in the past with comments about certain minorities.

Or maybe its one of those you dislike the people you are most alike??

[Harare]

I'm beginning to sense a Liberal melt-down in the offing and so here are my predictions based on DemocaticSpace.com plus a guess at the number of close seats that may also see the light.

LIBERAL PARTY: 60

CONSERVATIVE PARTY: 158 (including 8 from Quebec)

BLOC: 61

NDP: 28

Independant 1 ( MB)

[geoffrey]

I'm beginning to sense a Liberal melt-down in the offing and so here are my predictions based on DemocaticSpace.com plus a guess at the number of close seats that may also see the light.

LIBERAL PARTY: 60

CONSERVATIVE PARTY: 158 (including 8 from Quebec)

BLOC: 61

NDP: 28

Independant 1 ( MB)

Which ridings are those 8 in Quebec? The polls aren't showing anything even close to 8. I thought I was generous with 4.

I agree with your estimates, just not as strong of a showing from Quebec.

[Duke]

I think that the NDP will melt down further.Poeple like Buzz Hargrove will shift to the Libs in a last ditch effort to stop the Harper steamroller.

[Harare]

I'm beginning to sense a Liberal melt-down in the offing and so here are my predictions based on DemocaticSpace.com plus a guess at the number of close seats that may also see the light.

LIBERAL PARTY: 60

CONSERVATIVE PARTY: 158 (including 8 from Quebec)

BLOC: 61

NDP: 28

Independant 1 ( MB)

Which ridings are those 8 in Quebec? The polls aren't showing anything even close to 8. I thought I was generous with 4.

Geoffrey, I got that number of 8 seats from Gregg Allan. I know nothing of Quebec politics but the likely seats would appear to be:

Pontiac

Lois St Laurent

Beauce

Lotbiniere-Chutes

plus:

Megantic

Compton-Stanstead

Levis-Bellechasse

Portneuf-Jacques Cartier

Beauharnois-Salaberry

Shefford

And then theres Lasalle Emard - the ex PM's riding

ps can someone walk me thru how to QUOTE A PREVIOUS POST PROPERLY, Thanks,

Edited January 15, 2006 by Harare

[Biblio Bibuli]

Torture supporters are questionable in my book most days.

"The Lesser Evil: Political Ethics in an Age of Terror" by Ignatieff himself. Sorry, he doesn't support torture, I misrepresented... he supports "coercive interogations".

I do agree with lots of Ignatieff's beliefs, however, I feel he's a hypocrit on alot of issues, and he's proven to be racially biased in the past with comments about certain minorities.

I also support coercive interrogations in certain circumstances. As I believe everyone does, if they're not being totally dishonest with themselves. Some nutbar has the answer to where your beloved 6 year old daughter is hidden ... and you wouldn't twist his finger a touch? Or maybe pry his eyeball from his socket? The reality is that most of us are capable of violence under certain circumstances & a good government must have that capability too if it's country is to survive against those with no such scruples.

And racially biased? I'm sorry but only idiots believe that we're not all just a touch tribal. Scratch any living breathing human being & you'll find a bias. Our task as civilized people is to try & not let it color all our of feelings about the "other tribes", as Bin Laden or the Palestinians do.

Ignatieff is just an honest & thoughtful person. A rarity in politics, as it is in life.

Please elucidate on your belief that he is a hypocrite ... in light of the fact that he usually opines in such an unPC manner ... I just can't fathom how you could square that one.

[geoffrey]

I also support coercive interrogations in certain circumstances. As I believe everyone does, if they're not being totally dishonest with themselves. Some nutbar has the answer to where your beloved 6 year old daughter is hidden ... and you wouldn't twist his finger a touch? Or maybe pry his eyeball from his socket? The reality is that most of us are capable of violence under certain circumstances & a good government must have that capability too if it's country is to survive against those with no such scruples.

And racially biased? I'm sorry but only idiots believe that we're not all just a touch tribal. Scratch any living breathing human being & you'll find a bias. Our task as civilized people is to try & not let it color all our of feelings about the "other tribes", as Bin Laden or the Palestinians do.

Ignatieff is just an honest & thoughtful person. A rarity in politics, as it is in life.

Please elucidate on your belief that he is a hypocrite ... in light of the fact that he usually opines in such an unPC manner ... I just can't fathom how you could square that one.

My biggest concern is that he's portrayed as this big human rights supporter. He is also for 'coercive interrogations' and has come across with some racial ideas, I see some hypocracy here. I'm not disagreeing with the man, just I don't think he's the human rights angel that he's portrayed to be.

However, maybe I haven't given him a fair chance. Alot of what the media SAYS about him clashes with what he's said, judging completely on what he's said himself, maybe I was a little harsh. I'm going to read up on more of his thinking and get back to you on this. But lets stop hijacking these people's post.

Pontiac

Lois St Laurent

Beauce

Lotbiniere-Chutes

plus:

Megantic

Compton-Stanstead

Levis-Bellechasse

Portneuf-Jacques Cartier

Beauharnois-Salaberry

Shefford

And then theres Lasalle Emard - the ex PM's riding

When I first read this list I was in complete disbelief. I was about to say you are crazy to be so generous.

Then... I checked recent polling. I'm in agreement with all but Compton-Stanstead, Beauharnois-Salaberry, and Shefford.

Lasalle-Emard I've already predicted going to the Bloc.

So the updated numbers considering these relavations (and other recent relavations):

The Geoff Prediction v3

CPC 162

BQ 62

LPC 57

NDP 26

IND 1

So I've given the NDP Kenora now... I'll give Etobicoke-Lakeshore back to the Grits out of sympathy... and updated with some new Quebec findings. If those other 3 Quebec ridings slide even a bit more Blue (I guess the Bloc is kinda blue too... DARK blue) I'll be making a 4th prediction before the 23rd.

[Riverwind]

My biggest concern is that he's portrayed as this big human rights supporter. He is also for 'coercive interrogations' and has come across with some racial ideas, I see some hypocracy here. I'm not disagreeing with the man, just I don't think he's the human rights angel that he's portrayed to be.

I heard him discuss his opinions on torture long before he expressed an interest in politics. His point was: US authorities currently use torture to get information the need by outsourcing the job to countries that allow such practices. Ignatieff felt that this is hypocritical and a violation of human rights. He proposed a system of torture warrants that would bring this practice into the open and ensure that the minimum amount of coercion was used.

I thought is was an extremely unpleasant thing to consider but his rational makes sense if you assume that US authorities would not stop outsourcing torture to third countries unless they has similar tools available under US law.

It would be unfortunate if this torture thing undermines his Liberal leadership bid - I think having people in politics that did not spend their lives planing to be in politics is a good thing. That also means we need to accept a certain amount of 'political incorrectness' when reviewing a person's past.

[Harare]

Well thank-you Geoffrey, it means a lot to me to be pulled back from the brink on crazy.