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Just about election time!!! Lates Alberta projections from 338 - UCP 47 NDP 44


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2 hours ago, OftenWrong said:

Still got the majority, and that after a slash-and-burn campaign against her sanctioned by the media and funded by the federal stooges.

Yeah, looks like the polls actually called it pretty close.  It was  little closer than it looked like it was going to be in the end there but it's still a pretty solid majority. And as you say that's with just about everything against her from the media.

It has been almost 15 years since a conservative leader in alberta finished their mandate after being elected.   Kenney, Prentice, hancock, Redford they've all got tossed for one reason or another after being elected and before their term was up.   So I guess we'll see how she does.

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59 minutes ago, SpankyMcFarland said:

It doesn’t look like a catastrophic loss for the NDP. They gained seats. Is Notley really a liability for the party?

They gained a few, but it can be expected in light of the intense media campaign and (likely) cash injection by the federalis. Most likely because they got more limp-wristed leftist tards to come out of the basement and vote.

;) 

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5 hours ago, CdnFox said:

Yeah, looks like the polls actually called it pretty close.  It was  little closer than it looked like it was going to be in the end there but it's still a pretty solid majority. And as you say that's with just about everything against her from the media.

It has been almost 15 years since a conservative leader in alberta finished their mandate after being elected.   Kenney, Prentice, hancock, Redford they've all got tossed for one reason or another after being elected and before their term was up.   So I guess we'll see how she does.

It seems to me Albertans are a no-bullshit group who will eliminate any leader who crosses a certain line.

And rightly so. I do like it. Yes sir, I likeitalot...

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1 hour ago, OftenWrong said:

It seems to me Albertans are a no-bullshit group who will eliminate any leader who crosses a certain line.

And rightly so. I do like it. Yes sir, I likeitalot...

There is something to be said for making sure that the politicians know who the hell the boss around here is so to speak :)  We could do with a little more of that politically in canada.

But - at the same time for stability they can't be tossing  a leader who won an election before the next election all the time.

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1 hour ago, SpankyMcFarland said:

From an NDP point of view, how bad was Notley? 

We won't know till there's time for a little more number crunching - but not good thats for sure. The voter turn out wasn't horrible but it wasn't great at all. Polls said most voters really didn't see any difference between notley and smith specifically (not the parties)  and that is TERRIBLE. And reviewing the polling the wildfires had more of an impact (although temporary) on teh vote that notley did. Which is a seriously bad sign.

So obviously the ndp voters weren't loving her.

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3 hours ago, CdnFox said:

We won't know till there's time for a little more number crunching - but not good thats for sure. The voter turn out wasn't horrible but it wasn't great at all. Polls said most voters really didn't see any difference between notley and smith specifically (not the parties)  and that is TERRIBLE. And reviewing the polling the wildfires had more of an impact (although temporary) on teh vote that notley did. Which is a seriously bad sign.

So obviously the ndp voters weren't loving her.


We’ll see if she’s forced to go by her own people in the next few days/weeks. I’d say there’s a fair bit of residual goodwill after her stunning success in the past. Of course, she may decide to resign for her own reasons.

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4 hours ago, SpankyMcFarland said:


We’ll see if she’s forced to go by her own people in the next few days/weeks. I’d say there’s a fair bit of residual goodwill after her stunning success in the past. Of course, she may decide to resign for her own reasons.

So far she seems like she wants to stay on.

I suspect the core party members are still quite fond of her. She did pretty good in her own riding.  But i think even the party faithful who like her have to wonder if she can win an election at this point.  She looked old and haggard in this election - she's not going to look younger or more fresh next one.  She had MASSIVE gifts from god - scandals galore, judgement rulings that came in mid way, wildfires that were crippling, and polling that had them very close going into it.  What more do you want?  This is as good as it gets. And she couldn't make it happen. Or even come terribly close.

People might love her to death but they're going to be asking themselves - is that our horse in 4 years? And if not shouldn't we change horses now?

 

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7 hours ago, CdnFox said:

So far she seems like she wants to stay on.

People might love her to death but they're going to be asking themselves - is that our horse in 4 years? And if not shouldn't we change horses now?

I’m sure party members must be asking that as they always do after a defeat and she’s  been around a long time - 59 is getting up there. How many of her potential successors are to her right in the party? She has pursued a fairly pragmatic path attractive to moderate voters. Columnists from Lorne Gunter to the CBC don’t see massive pressure on her to step down now. 
 

Quote

Bill Anderson, vice-president with Crestview Strategy and a former conservative campaigner, is more convinced NDP members will push for new leadership now that Notley has lost two consecutive provincial elections.

However, the party's success is so tightly tethered to Notley's pragmatic nudging of the party to centre, any chance would raise questions about the party's identity, he said.

"The NDP without Notley? Very different beast," Anderson said.

Although Ward and others involved with the party say an NDP leadership contest has the potential to generate interest from the public, Anderson said it could be a minefield.

https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/edmonton/the-alberta-ndp-made-gains-but-remains-in-opposition-what-happens-next-1.6858896

 

 

Edited by SpankyMcFarland
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1 hour ago, SpankyMcFarland said:

Columnists from Lorne Gunter to the CBC don’t see massive pressure on her to step down now. 

No, i don't think there will be massive pressure.  She's still popular as a person within the party.  I think it's going to be more like soul searching. "hey, notley's great but.. can she do it?"

A lot will depend on how she handles this.  We can look to other examples of that.  Scheer for example - in his election people looked at the loss where he had similar advantages over trudeau that notley had over smith  and said "we blew that one, we made a bunch of mistakes, that was a REALLY horrible campaign".  And what they were expecting Scheer to say was "well - we made real mistakes there but we learned a lot and here's what we did wrong and we'll do better next time and i humbly ask for another shot at it from the party" .

What scheer said was "I did great! We're awesome!  And i'm totally leading you biatches into the next election whether you like it or not!!!!!

*boott!*

If notley does an honest evaluation of the election and is honest about her performance and gives people the belief she can learn and do better next time then they could well give her another crack at it.

But unless something radical happens chances are next election is going to be even harder.

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  • 2 weeks later...

And the final wrap up -  The post election poll:

https://leger360.com/surveys/the-2023-alberta-election-albertans-views-on-the-results/

SOME OF THE KEY FINDINGS OF OUR SURVEY ON ALBERTANS VIEWS ON THE THE 2023 ALBERTA ELECTION RESULTS INCLUDE…

  • Albertans who voted UCP in the most recent Alberta election were more likely than those who voted NDP to have been undecided at the start of the election, making up their minds on or just before election day.
  • 51% of Albertans are satisfied with the outcome of the recent Alberta election, while 40% are dissatisfied.
  • 65% of Albertans who voted in the election were motivated to make their choice as a vote in support of the party they chose, rather than a vote against the other party they didn’t choose.
  • The top two issues Albertans feel the new government should focus on are improving the delivery of health care and helping with the cost of living
  • Following the Alberta election, 47% of Albertans think Premier Smith should continue to push back strongly against the federal government and advocate for Albertans, while 40% feel she should be less combative and more collaborative.

 

Perhaps not surprising but it does show there's a pretty sharp divide in alberta right now

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