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Just about election time!!! Lates Alberta projections from 338 - UCP 47 NDP 44


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https://www.castanet.net/news/Canada/426788/Alberta-election-campaign-enters-third-week-leaders-to-debate-Thursday

 

Alberta's election campaign is entering its third week, with the leaders of the United Conservatives and the NDP set to face each other in a debate on Thursday.

Both parties made announcements on health care over the weekend, with NDP Leader Rachel Notley promising to offer bonuses of up to $10,000 to attract doctors, nurses, and other allied health professionals to Alberta.

Notley also pledged an NDP government will create up to 10,000 new post-secondary spaces specific to the health field and others over the next three years.

UCP Leader Danielle Smith, meanwhile, pledged to fund a review by Alberta Health Services to determine whether five additional diseases and conditions should be added to a list of 22 conditions newborns are automatically scanned for at birth.

She also promised to provide additional funding for testing, educational supports and programs for children with autism and other disabilities, and said that doctors, midwives, and nurses will be eligible for the UCP’s recently announced Alberta is Calling Signing Bonus and Graduate Retention Tax Credit.

Seriously - this is turning into a major yawnfest.  Nobody's going to get excited over either of those announcements.

I can only assume they're either a) utterly incompetent or b) keeping their powder dry until the debates - hoping to win the debate and then ride the momentum with a bunch of new announcements that won't put people to sleep.

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IT will be interesting to see if this pans out - modelling elections is becoming an art and there's a few outrageously successful model methods out there.

https://calgaryherald.com/news/local-news/braid-pollster-says-ucp-in-lead-over-ndp

Brown cautions that this is a result from her model, not a prediction.

But she has been bang-on before, most recently in the 2019 election.

The real shocker in this poll is the Calgary finding: 51 per cent support for the UCP, 39 per cent NDP.

If that’s the case on May 29, it’s over already.

Edmonton remains rock-solid for the NDP, with 57 per cent support compared to 36 per cent for the UCP.

But the rest of the province outside the big metro areas is tilted even more heavily to the UCP — 61 per cent, and only 26 per cent for the New Democrats.

All this runs against other polls which show a much tighter race, as well as the public narrative of Smith being in deep trouble because of her past comments and the support of Take Back Alberta.

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1 hour ago, RedDog said:

The Dippers say this morning they’ll increase corporate taxes.

That means in the case of say Sobey’s, inflation in food will be 50% instead of the 30% Ottawa says is 6%.

Eat the rich is a common theme but that's not going to play to the people they need to convince.

Well - debates tomorrow and that will be notley's last chance to actually be interesting. So far is a completely bland platform with some basic ndp porriage that will excite no one.  Does she think people hate danielle so much they'll vote for notley just because? I don't think so

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Well - i don't know who watched the debate but it was very interesting. Having just two debaters was great

First off - HOW THE HELL DID THEY WIND UP WITH EXACTLY THE SAME OUT FIT IN THE SAME COLOUR?!  Oh - notleys was a white blouse under instead of blue but for EFFS sake -it looked like they were trying to go as twins or something! Yeash.

CBC is suggesting slightly it was for notley, which is not surprising considering they hate smith with a passion.

But honestly - smith probably took the win. The talk was mostly fluff - but she looked more put together, more confident, and she actually seemed proud when she spoke of her accomplishments.  Notley looked more flustered and disjointed.  She did better in teh second half but she didn't get any real body blows in and she needed to.

Her one thing she got was the 'smith committed a crime' thing -but i don't know if that's going to sway very many voters and honestly her insistence that smith would charge user fees just came across as desperate and over scripted.

Was notley's performance enough to move calgary? Which is what it all boils down to.  I'm thinking probably not. I don't think she sold anyone on the economics, i don't think she convinced anyone she can bring in investment, and i don't think she sold anyone that her healthcare is going to be substantially better than smiths plan or that smiths plan isn't working, and i think she needed to do those things,

We'll see. Most people don't watch debates, they read the paper's accounts of who won and the highlights after so it'll take a couple of days for the full impact to be felt (and by then it's election time) so we'll know one way or another soon.

 

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Well as i predicted, it looks like the debate has gone in smith's favor

image.thumb.png.b52bad8bd1d6e1c9bd4577890208aa4c.png

It would now appear that the UPC is going to win with more than 50 percent of the popular vote, and they've got the momentum.

You never can tell till it's over - voter turn out can still play a huge role.  But right now it looks like the NDP just did not put together a good campaign.

Campaigns matter so much and it looks like notley just thought all she had to do was not be smith. But that is NEVER how it works. She didn't really show up and when she did she looked tired.

Looks like Danielle will get an officially elected kick at the can.  We'll see how she does.

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Smith found to be in violation of Conflict of Interest Act.  
 

Former Conservative attorney general calls for a criminal investigation.  
 

https://www.iheartradio.ca/100-3-the-bear/news/former-lougheed-era-attorney-general-jim-foster-suggests-criminal-probe-into-smith-ethics-breach-1.19696696

 

Quote

 

He argues that, in addition to violating the conflict-of-interest rule, Smith may also have broken the law by attempting to pressure the attorney general over the prosecution of Artur Pawlowski. 

 

"When I read the ethics commissioner report, it was concerning," he said in an interview with CTV News.

"It disclosed, in detail, the communication between the premier and the then-attorney general (Tyler) Shandro, which was completely inappropriate, and (Marguerite Trussler's report) finds that a violation of the ethics legislation.

 

 

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2 minutes ago, TreeBeard said:

Smith found to be in violation of Conflict of Interest Act.  
 

Former Conservative attorney general calls for a criminal investigation.  
 

https://www.iheartradio.ca/100-3-the-bear/news/former-lougheed-era-attorney-general-jim-foster-suggests-criminal-probe-into-smith-ethics-breach-1.19696696

 

 

Who cares? Trudeau did that more than once and nobody gave a crap on the left side - nobody's going to care now.  Hell if she were in ontario that would guarantee a win. That bar has already been set far lower than that by the fed libs.

 

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Hard to imagine someone was too crazy to be part of Danielle Smith’s caucus.   Smith was forced to denounce this bigot. 
 

https://www.cbc.ca/amp/1.6853505

UCP Leader Danielle Smith says her decision is "final" to exclude candidate Jennifer Johnson from caucus if elected.

In a leaked recording from an event last September, Johnson likened transgender children in schools to adding feces to a batch of cookies.

In the days after Johnson's comments were made public last week, Smith said Johnson would not sit in the United Conservative Party caucus, should the residents of Lacombe-Ponoka elect her.

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18 hours ago, TreeBeard said:

Hard to imagine someone was too crazy to be part of Danielle Smith’s caucus.   Smith was forced to denounce this bigot. 
 

 Not hard to imagine at all - the right wing parties frequently kick the kooks out. The libs are the ones who keep them in.  Many of their people are caught doing the same or worse and they hold on to them.  Hell justin has done blackface so many times he can't remember.

Start complaining when they DON'T kick them out, like the libs.

 

https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/calgary/cbc-poll-ucp-alberta-1.6855265

CBC News poll suggests United Conservative Party headed for victory in Alberta

image.thumb.png.890abd6eae5a0b3d51001e74f20d3a25.png

No difference between Smith and Notley in Albertans' minds

While most Albertans seem to prefer the UCP over the NDP, voters in the Prairie province appear to have identical impressions of the two parties' leaders.

Nearly half of Albertans (47 per cent) somewhat or strongly disapprove of both the UCP's Danielle Smith and the NDP's Rachel Notley.

The two leaders vying for the province's top job each received identical 42 per cent approval ratings.

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Notley just did not perform. She needed to be hot going into the election, she needed to grab attention during the election and differentiate herself, and she needed to paint a future that was exciting.

And she failed across the board, and ran a very mediocre campaign and smith just wasn't going down that easy.

We'll see - it ain't over till it's over. There have been surprises before.  but it looks like naughty notley blew it.

 

Edited by CdnFox
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4 hours ago, SpankyMcFarland said:

That the NDP is in any way competitive in an Alberta election still manages to surprise me, such a change from when I lived there. 

It's inevitable. As populations increase in the major metros, the number of left leaning voters also increases. When i was younger it was not uncommon for bc to vote solid blue federally.  Nowadays that wouldn't happen, even tho it's often majority blue.

Alberta has this weird thing where it's almost exactly like bc but 10-15 years behind. BC used to be about 70-30 right wing-left wing, then once in every 15 years or so the ndp would win for a term,  then they became more closely competitive. the right wing party changed its name frequently (socred, reform, liberal, united, etc). Now the voters tend to be closer to 55-45 and voter turn out tends to decide elections.  

It'll be no different for alberta. As population grows that's what happens.

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On 5/27/2023 at 8:40 AM, SpankyMcFarland said:

That the NDP is in any way competitive in an Alberta election still manages to surprise me, such a change from when I lived there. 

I would not trust any polls or other media information at this point in time. Given that the CBC and other "approved" media portrayed Smith as the Devil in a little black dress.

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1 hour ago, BeaverFever said:

Alberta is still a one-party state owned by the oil industry. In the unlikely event that Notley wins it will just be a one-time fluke just like the last time and it will be more a reflection of Smith’s competence (or lack thereof) rather than any change in ideology or party preference 

No, it isn't.  As I noted this is a change we've seen before. Smaller populations tend to be more conservative, as urban centers grow you tend to see more left wing presence and ideology.

For a long time BC was blue as it gets, then over time the ndp grew to be about 40-45 percent of the vote and would occasionally win elections (especially when the right was split), now they're pretty competative all the time.

The same change is going on in alberta - the ndp is semi-competative right now and will grow moreso. The days of the right getting an automatic win are probably in the rear view mirror.

Notley ran a horrible campaign. I said so from the beginning, she was slow out of the gate, she was lackluster in performance, she did not win the debate. Her people didn't prep her right - smiling after you've been frowning while making  your point, hunched body language, eyes darting to the competition instead of the audience (which is different than turning and confronting).  And a host of other mistakes during that debate. She got a few decent hits in but not enough to make up for it.

So now the only thing that can save Notley is voter turn out. If for some reason the UCP voters stay home, especailly in calgary,  then she might get supremely lucky. Otherwise she'll be in opposition again and probably out of a job.

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Welp - probably the last polls we're going to get. 

 

image.thumb.png.c321b0fba9dba07b375d12f7991f4736.png

Not much has changed.  In fact - aside from a slight ripple at the beginning and a bit of activity when the forest fires started, for the last half of the race its' been steady as a rock.

 

image.thumb.png.e3d3eb11154b67e70500eb135a322a75.png

 

The thing is the data suggests that there was a path to victory there for the NDP. They just didn't capitalize the opportunity.

Campaigns matter very much. That's why bad leaders who are good campaigners often wind up in power.  If you want to be the leader you HAVE to prepare a good campaign.

She had 4 years and a lot to work with. She's got to feel bad about this. Barring a miracle with voter turn out monday she's blown a real opportunity.

image.png

Edited by CdnFox
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Oooops - looks like ledger snuck in a last minute poll - but it's pretty much the same

https://calgaryherald.com/news/local-news/alberta-election-leger-poll-ucp-slight-lead

But this does have a respectable sample size in calgary, where the ndp are still behind the UCP.

Voter turn out is expected to be strong. Barring a miracle i think notley has completely blown this one.

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Looks like the upc is running away with it so far.  It'll take time to count all the early ballots but based on this the ndp is going to finish even further behind than predicted.

What a shame - it really could have been an interesting campaing but for some reason notley just rolled over and did a crappy job. Just completely failed to launch.

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On 5/28/2023 at 9:19 AM, OftenWrong said:

I would not trust any polls or other media information at this point in time. Given that the CBC and other "approved" media portrayed Smith as the Devil in a little black dress.

Still got the majority, and that after a slash-and-burn campaign against her sanctioned by the media and funded by the federal stooges.

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