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Just about election time!!! Lates Alberta projections from 338 - UCP 47 NDP 44


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The Odds of the UCP winning the most seats is 81 percent. 

The big challenge for the ndp is that the budget just  put forward was really clever. It's got a surplus but not an outrageous one, and it increases spending in several key areas such as health.  It's actually a very moderate budget.  So the ndp won't be able to point at it and say 'Look at all the cuts" or anything. They can only say "Yeah but our budget would increase spednind MOAR.  And go into deficit. "

They're going to have a tough time showing voters why they are substantially different than the UCP.

https://338canada.com/alberta/

 

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  • 1 month later...
13 minutes ago, bcsapper said:

Maybe they can show they are different by not being afraid to answer questions.

https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/calgary/alberta-premier-new-question-limits-1.6811816

Maybe if they limit questions the media will be forced to stop asking the same ones over and over and over again if they want to have something to write about :)

You linked to the cbc - thats the same cbc that insisted there absolutely was emails between her and the justice people and an independent search that went through both sides found nothing. And the cbc still kept on with that story.

Sorry - the press brought this on themselves.

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4 minutes ago, CdnFox said:

Maybe if they limit questions the media will be forced to stop asking the same ones over and over and over again if they want to have something to write about :)

You linked to the cbc - thats the same cbc that insisted there absolutely was emails between her and the justice people and an independent search that went through both sides found nothing. And the cbc still kept on with that story.

Sorry - the press brought this on themselves.

Awww, fan are we?

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7 minutes ago, bcsapper said:

Awww, fan are we?

Of Smith? No - i'm interested as a political junkie but i think alberta is mildly screwed either way this election :P

But i do stand by what i said - the cbc came out of nowhere with completely unsupported allegations regarding documents they admit they never even saw, causing the gov't to hire a third party to investigate and even after they found that there WAS no such documents the CBC continued.

That's just one  example. The media really does bring this kind of thing on themselves more often than not.

So now they're going to have to pick their quesitons carefully or they won't have anything to report on.

Frankly - i would feel the same if an MSM publication did the same with a left of center gov't.  Strangely, it hasn't come up yet. But if it does i'll say the same.

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3 minutes ago, Aristides said:

Albertans will decide, everyone else will vent.

So? Do you watch sports? Even tho you dont' get to play? Hmmmmm :)

It's fun to watch and look at the strategies and what happens and even 'root' for your fave team once in a while (whether they deserve it or not in some cases :) )

Obviously more than most provinces what happens in Alberta affects bc so we have some small stake in it and with a large percent of the population being from alberta we do have a certain empathy. But mostly it's just fun to watch. Relax.

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26 minutes ago, CdnFox said:

Of Smith? No - i'm interested as a political junkie but i think alberta is mildly screwed either way this election :P

But i do stand by what i said - the cbc came out of nowhere with completely unsupported allegations regarding documents they admit they never even saw, causing the gov't to hire a third party to investigate and even after they found that there WAS no such documents the CBC continued.

That's just one  example. The media really does bring this kind of thing on themselves more often than not.

So now they're going to have to pick their quesitons carefully or they won't have anything to report on.

Frankly - i would feel the same if an MSM publication did the same with a left of center gov't.  Strangely, it hasn't come up yet. But if it does i'll say the same.

Well, imprecise language does have its pitfalls.

Any politician who refuses to answer media questions in the run up to an election is a chicken.  She doesn't have to give the CBC any exclusive interviews, if she's worried about them making stuff up.  What's her excuse in a roomful of mixed media?

Anyway, one would hope the electorate punishes her for it, but they probably won't. 

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31 minutes ago, CdnFox said:

So? Do you watch sports? Even tho you dont' get to play? Hmmmmm :)

It's fun to watch and look at the strategies and what happens and even 'root' for your fave team once in a while (whether they deserve it or not in some cases :) )

Obviously more than most provinces what happens in Alberta affects bc so we have some small stake in it and with a large percent of the population being from alberta we do have a certain empathy. But mostly it's just fun to watch. Relax.

Sure but I have no say so there is no point in getting too exited about it. Albertans are going to do what they are going to do. Venting is fine too as long as you take it for what it is worth.

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34 minutes ago, bcsapper said:

 

Any politician who refuses to answer media questions in the run up to an election is a chicken.

A what? Are you serious? I guess maybe if the election is being held on an elementary school playground.  These people are in it to win it. it's not a game for them.

34 minutes ago, bcsapper said:

 

She doesn't have to give the CBC any exclusive interviews, if she's worried about them making stuff up.  What's her excuse in a roomful of mixed media?

Same one - and it's the same answer. Limit that crap. Tonnes of politicians do that including left of center ones. It's a way of killing stories that the media loves to harp on but there's just nothing more to answer on. The issue will be gone and the press won't have as much time for false accusations.

Side note - Notley is really making this easy for her as well. Compared to her first winning campaign she's being seriously pathetic right now. Ford won because his opponents were so lackluster that if he didn't say a thing he still looked better and notley is giving Smith that kind of freedom right now.  It's a close race - notley should be all guns blazing and she's barely noticeable, which gives smith the freedom to sit back and talk less.

34 minutes ago, bcsapper said:

Anyway, one would hope the electorate punishes her for it, but they probably won't. 

I doubt they will, especially in alberta. 

 

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28 minutes ago, Aristides said:

Sure but I have no say so there is no point in getting too exited about it. Albertans are going to do what they are going to do. Venting is fine too as long as you take it for what it is worth.

Well i think you'll find a lot of people get excited watching sports as well :)

And there's some reason - correctly evaluating the outcome is always a rewarding experience (or figuring out why you got it wrong as the case may be). And it does change things - whether it's an ndp or UCP gov't will impact things federally quite a bit and might also have a serious and interesting imapct on the federal NDP who will be in an awkward position.

Politics does matter in the end, so there's a certain excitement to it

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9 minutes ago, CdnFox said:

A what? Are you serious? I guess maybe if the election is being held on an elementary school playground.  These people are in it to win it. it's not a game for them.

Same one - and it's the same answer. Limit that crap. Tonnes of politicians do that including left of center ones. It's a way of killing stories that the media loves to harp on but there's just nothing more to answer on. The issue will be gone and the press won't have as much time for false accusations.

Side note - Notley is really making this easy for her as well. Compared to her first winning campaign she's being seriously pathetic right now. Ford won because his opponents were so lackluster that if he didn't say a thing he still looked better and notley is giving Smith that kind of freedom right now.  It's a close race - notley should be all guns blazing and she's barely noticeable, which gives smith the freedom to sit back and talk less.

I doubt they will, especially in alberta. 

 

I meant chickenshit.  I forgot the shit.  Maybe the media can remember it.

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16 minutes ago, CdnFox said:

Well i think you'll find a lot of people get excited watching sports as well :)

And there's some reason - correctly evaluating the outcome is always a rewarding experience (or figuring out why you got it wrong as the case may be). And it does change things - whether it's an ndp or UCP gov't will impact things federally quite a bit and might also have a serious and interesting imapct on the federal NDP who will be in an awkward position.

Politics does matter in the end, so there's a certain excitement to it

I like sports but unless you depend on it for a living, it's just a game.

Yes the outcome could have an impact on a national scale. I wasn't trying to be critical, just making an observation. This is a political forum after all.

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24 minutes ago, Aristides said:

I like sports but unless you depend on it for a living, it's just a game.

The outcome of elections tends to affect our lives so that DOES make it a little more than 'just a game'.  Which is why i prefer it to sports actually.

24 minutes ago, Aristides said:

Yes the outcome could have an impact on a national scale. I wasn't trying to be critical, just making an observation. This is a political forum after all.

Well fair enough, my apology if i read too much into it.

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1 minute ago, CdnFox said:

Well i'll admit that bumps it up to highschool level.  But that's not much better! :)

Bollocks.  If the media let the little wuss get away with answering when she feels like it they should hand in their press cards.

Then they can go back to high school with her.

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1 minute ago, bcsapper said:

Bollocks.  If the media let the little wuss get away with answering when she feels like it they should hand in their press cards.

Then they can go back to high school with her.

Well they don't get much say. Traditionally in these cases they write a few snotty editorials that nobody reads and do a few tv interviews with each other asking each other what the press things about this which nobody watches and life goes on. They have to remember she may very well win again and they'll have to live with her for 4 years. She can easily make their lives 10 times harder and less profitable. She can by pass them entirely and not do pressers and do interviews with 'friendly' press and ignore the political press core entirely.

PP's been doing that - lots of interviews lots of media but not with the parliament press core and it's been pissing them off. It's a shot across the bow.

So they'll have to take what they're given and for her it's to her advantage. And politicians don't care about being a chicken or the like - they care about winning and that's it

If notley steps up her game that may change things. If i was in the leg press corps i'd be bugging her for pressers night and day.

 

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  • 2 weeks later...
2 hours ago, impartialobserver said:

the six weeks prior to a major election are the worst time of the year. Robocalls, pamphlets, people knocking on the door, non-stop ads. Most of the time do not really care about the result.. mostly celebrating the end of this annoyance. 

LOL - well there's some truth to that of course :)

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8 hours ago, Nationalist said:

So...are the UCP still expected to win in Alberta?

That fore with the NDP was embarrassing...even for a former Albertan like me.

At this point yes.  And widening the gap

https://338canada.com/alberta/

Campaigns matter and they haven't really started yet - but notley is REALLY underperforming in that regard right now. I'm honestly disappointed, i thought all things considered she'd be out of the gate like a bat out of hell building momentum. Instead she's almost invisible.

Election day is may 29 - the official race has to start soon. Obviously Smith is going to go for a short election cycle as that favors her, so right now notley and her friends should be blowing out the doors with media and advertising while it's still off the official books - but they're not.

I was kind of looking for an interesting fight and i'm not sure i'm going to get it.  What i thought might be Van Dam vs Stallone is shaping up to be Chuck Norris vs Urkle.

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13 hours ago, CdnFox said:

At this point yes.  And widening the gap

https://338canada.com/alberta/

Campaigns matter and they haven't really started yet - but notley is REALLY underperforming in that regard right now. I'm honestly disappointed, i thought all things considered she'd be out of the gate like a bat out of hell building momentum. Instead she's almost invisible.

Election day is may 29 - the official race has to start soon. Obviously Smith is going to go for a short election cycle as that favors her, so right now notley and her friends should be blowing out the doors with media and advertising while it's still off the official books - but they're not.

I was kind of looking for an interesting fight and i'm not sure i'm going to get it.  What i thought might be Van Dam vs Stallone is shaping up to be Chuck Norris vs Urkle.

Well I know how my parents will vote.

Here's hoping for the best...possible. 

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