The global financial nuclear time bomb

[sharkman]

18 minutes ago, Moonbox said:

The link you posted did, fool.  Your above quote is nothing but you telling us things about Michael Burry - none of it is Michael Burry telling us what he's predicting.  Show us what he says we're in store for, otherwise you're still just shouting

MICHAEL BURRY MICHAEL BURRY MICHAEL BURRY MICHAEL BURRY

Oh yeah, one more.  Burry said Tesla stock was gonna take a dump.  Then it did.

[sharkman]

Here’s yet another warning of a serious recession, this time by Jeremy Grantham.

 

 

[sharkman]

FedEx layoffs…

 

https://www.freightwaves.com/news/fedex-to-cut-global-officer-director-workforce-by-at-least-10

“Wednesday’s announced cutbacks are part of a reduction of 12,000 jobs since the June 1 start of FedEx’s 2023 fiscal year, according to a company spokesperson. In September, FedEx reported subpar fiscal 2023 first-quarter earnings, which it blamed mostly on a sudden and dramatic drop-off in trans-Pacific volumes and an inability to cut costs fast enough at its FedEx Express air and international unit to align with the lower demand.”

 

[sharkman]

The second largest bank in Switzerland posted their biggest annual loss since 2008. Their customers have been withdrawing their money out of that bank to the tune of 100 billion, in the last quarter alone.  It isn’t pretty.

“The company saw a 96% plunge in equity trading revenue and 84% drop in fixed income trading revenue. Wealth Management revenue down 17%. You get the idea. Things are tough over there at Credit Suisse, even as it prepares a spinoff of its CS First Boston unit and did a transaction to that effect today. So those shares are trading down sharply.”

https://ca.finance.yahoo.com/video/credit-suisse-sees-96-plunge-160214195.html

 

 

[sharkman]

So I heard on the down low that India started selling off USD to support their currency.  Apparently other countries might be also selling off USD, putting downward pressure on the yankee buck.  We shall see what develops.

[sharkman]

https://news.yahoo.com/svb-fallout-spreads-around-world-154331383.html

“Fears of contagion have reached Canada, India and China. In the UK, SVB’s unit is set to be declared insolvent, has already ceased trading and is no longer taking new customers. On Saturday, the leaders of roughly 180 tech companies sent a letter calling on UK Chancellor Jeremy Hunt to intervene.

“The loss of deposits has the potential to cripple the sector and set the ecosystem back 20 years,” they said in the letter seen by Bloomberg. “Many businesses will be sent into involuntary liquidation overnight.”

The SVB failure has implications around the world it seems, which could make for an interesting Monday.  And Yellen has apparently said no bailout is coming.  

 

[SpankyMcFarland]

Hard to know what to make of this story about TD:
 

One negative take:

https://financialpost.com/fp-finance/banking/toronto-dominion-bank-biggest-short

 

And a nothing to see here view:

https://www.theglobeandmail.com/investing/markets/inside-the-market/article-should-we-worry-about-the-canadian-banks-when-it-comes-to-short/
 

I find reassuring stories about banks anything but. There were similarly bullish yarns about Irish banks in 2008 just before they collapsed. We’ve a strong sector here but I would prefer that our banks operated only in Canada. If one of them ever goes bust they’ll come straight to us for a bailout. 

 

 

[sharkman]

Yes they will, in a new legal manner called a “ bail in”.  They will be allowed to seize what’s in our bank accounts to pay off their losses.  

[Guest]

8 minutes ago, sharkman said:

Yes they will, in a new legal manner called a “ bail in”.  They will be allowed to seize what’s in our bank accounts to pay off their losses.  

I have zero knowledge on this issue, but your post concerned me enough to look it up.  The CDIC says:

The following are not eligible for a bail-in conversion:

Deposits (including chequing accounts, savings accounts and term deposits such as GICs);

Secured liabilities (e.g., covered bonds);

Eligible financial contracts (e.g., derivatives); and

Most structured notes.

https://www.cdic.ca/what-happens-in-a-failure/resolution-of-large-banks/resolution-tools-for-d-sibs/bail-in/bail-in-backgrounder/how-bail-in-works/

[sharkman]

And which banks accounts CAN they seize?  You forgot to mention that.  Why would you post on this and edit that tidbit of info out?  Why is that not important to you?

And what does the CDIC say about CBDC?  What do they say about our government freezing bank accounts of people that are allegedly breaking the law?   We never had to talk about ANY of this in the 90s.  In the 2000s.  in the 2010's.  Times are changing fast, and most have no idea what a CBDC is.  Or what's dangerous about a government freezing bank accounts without due process.  That means, a judge and a court deciding on the issue instead of it being led by a government bureaucrat.

[Guest]

8 hours ago, sharkman said:

And which banks accounts CAN they seize?  You forgot to mention that.  Why would you post on this and edit that tidbit of info out?  Why is that not important to you?

And what does the CDIC say about CBDC?  What do they say about our government freezing bank accounts of people that are allegedly breaking the law?   We never had to talk about ANY of this in the 90s.  In the 2000s.  in the 2010's.  Times are changing fast, and most have no idea what a CBDC is.  Or what's dangerous about a government freezing bank accounts without due process.  That means, a judge and a court deciding on the issue instead of it being led by a government bureaucrat.

Who, me?  Forgot what? Edit what?

As I said there, I have zero knowledge on the issue.  I was asking you what you thought of that article.

I'm not arguing with you.  I just think that if someone's coming for my savings, I should know about it.

It appears they might not be after all.

 

[eyeball]

On 12/28/2022 at 12:07 PM, sharkman said:

Like I said, the weak nations are starting to go into default.

It's about time. The sooner they all do the sooner they'll all realize different rules apply to the 'strong' nations.

[sharkman]

2 hours ago, eyeball said:

It's about time. The sooner they all do the sooner they'll all realize different rules apply to the 'strong' nations.

Well it’s hard to say.  I’m sure you have heard of BRICS, the China Russia alliance wanting to compete with the G7 and start their own gold backed currency?

Well, they are taking applications to join their alliance, and here’s a partial list of applicants:

Algeria

Nicaragua

Argentina

UAE

Turkey

Iran

Indonesia

Senegal

Nigeria

Afghanistan

Epypt

Saudi Arabia

 

Notice in that number is a lot of poor countries looking for help. They may get converted to the dark side, so to speak, and I have no idea how that will turn out.  
 

 

 

[Guest]

4 minutes ago, sharkman said:

Well it’s hard to say.  I’m sure you have heard of BRICS, the China Russia alliance wanting to compete with the G7 and start their own gold backed currency?

Well, they are taking applications to join their alliance, and here’s a partial list of applicants:

Algeria

Nicaragua

Argentina

UAE

Turkey

Iran

Indonesia

Senegal

Nigeria

Afghanistan

Epypt

Saudi Arabia

 

Notice in that number is a lot of poor countries looking for help. They may get converted to the dark side, so to speak, and I have no idea how that will turn out.  
 

 

 

Looks like the next United Nations Human Rights Council to me...

[eyeball]

24 minutes ago, sharkman said:

They may get converted to the dark side, so to speak, and I have no idea how that will turn out.

I do - not good.

[sharkman]

https://www.reuters.com/world/china/china-evergrande-files-protection-us-court-part-32-bln-debt-overhaul-2023-08-18/

HONG KONG/NEW YORK, Aug 18 (Reuters) - Embattled developer China Evergrande Group (3333.HK) has filed for U.S. bankruptcy protection as part of one of the world's biggest debt restructurings, as anxiety grows over China's worsening property crisis and its impact on the weakening economy.

China unexpectedly lowered several key interest rates earlier this week in a bid to shore up struggling activity and is expected to cut prime loan rates on Monday, but analysts say moves so far have been too little, too late, with much more forceful measures needed to stem the economy's downward spiral.

This has been a long time coming for Evergrande, and it is a sign of worsening conditions in China.  
 

It’s a very provocative development when you consider that the BRICS nations are meeting tomorrow and rumour has it they may be admitting more countries such as Saudi Arabia.  They also are looking at issuing a new gold backed currency.  
 

And what might that do to the US dollar?

 

 

 

 

[sharkman]

https://www.cnbc.com/amp/2023/08/23/european-pmis-for-august-show-steep-downturn-.html

"The downward pressure on the economy of the euro zone in August stems mainly from the German service sector which switched from growth to contraction at an unusual pace," Rubia said, adding that reduced output in manufacturing also adds to the argument that Germany is becoming "the sick man of Europe."

 

 

[sharkman]

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/billions-dollars-flowing-chinese-markets-213851348.html

Over the weekend, Chinese authorities halved the tax charged on stock trades, called a “stamp duty,” and lowered the amount of collateral a trader has to deposit in order to borrow money to invest in stocks in a bid to “boost investor confidence,” according to a Google translation of a statement from China’s Ministry of Finance. Beijing also asked some mutual funds to avoid being net sellers of equities, Bloomberg reported, citing unnamed sources.

…

Despite the moves, foreign investors continue to flee Chinese markets. With Beijing cracking down on foreign consulting firms amid tensions between the U.S. and China and repeatedly requiring investment firms to avoid selling stocks when markets look shaky, investors seem increasingly nervous about the risks of holding capital in China.

In the first half of this year, the number of active China-focused hedge funds fell for the first time in more than a decade. And in the second quarter, direct investment liabilities—a measure of foreign direct investment into China—slumped 87% from a year ago to a record low of $4.9 billion, according to figures released by China’s State Administration of Foreign Exchange on Friday.

Will this uncertainty spread?  It’s hard to say, but bad enough that the largest country in the world(population-wise) is suffering what may turn out to be a crash of sorts.

 

[Moonbox]

On 1/16/2023 at 11:57 AM, sharkman said:

Okay, it’s clear you are discarding my thoughts and warnings about a possible serious deep recession, because your sources, etc, are presenting a different picture.

How about Michael Burry?  The guy who made 100’s of millions betting that the financial crisis of 2008 was coming, when almost nobody agreed?  You might want to at least read what he’s saying about the economy.  Because he’s shorting like mad again…

• Investors would have made more money buying the S&P 500 than following Michael Burry's stock-market warnings, said Charlie Bilello, chief market strategist at Creative Planning.
• The index had an "average 6-month annualized gain of 34%" in the periods following a selection of 2019-2023 Burry tweets, he said.
• "Don't make changes in your portfolio based on a tweet," he said in a post on X. 

https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/stock-market-big-short-michael-burry-tweets-sp-500-investors-2023-9

Michael Burry Michael Burry Michael Burry. 

Sorry Sharkman.  Don't base your worldview on tweets.  ?

[sharkman]

8 hours ago, Moonbox said:

• Investors would have made more money buying the S&P 500 than following Michael Burry's stock-market warnings, said Charlie Bilello, chief market strategist at Creative Planning.
• The index had an "average 6-month annualized gain of 34%" in the periods following a selection of 2019-2023 Burry tweets, he said.
• "Don't make changes in your portfolio based on a tweet," he said in a post on X. 

https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/stock-market-big-short-michael-burry-tweets-sp-500-investors-2023-9

Michael Burry Michael Burry Michael Burry. 

Sorry Sharkman.  Don't base your worldview on tweets.  ?

Thanks for thinking of me.  Yup, this is much the same response as those in the establishment back in 2006-2008 until Burry made his billions.  His investors were screaming bloody murder over his strategy right up until he sent them 6 or 700% on their investments.  I don’t really know the exact number, it might have been more.

We are in the middle of a developing economic event that is worse than 2008, I’m afraid to say.  Let’s see what happens by the end of the year, shall we?

[Moonbox]

On 9/15/2023 at 1:08 AM, sharkman said:

We are in the middle of a developing economic event that is worse than 2008, I’m afraid to say.  Let’s see what happens by the end of the year, shall we?

We've heard this before from you.  Last time you were telling us to wait for the end of January 2023.  ?

You have absolutely no idea what you're talking about - just another mindless twitter zombie, trawling for doom-porn.  

[sharkman]

On 8/21/2023 at 9:43 AM, sharkman said:

https://www.reuters.com/world/china/china-evergrande-files-protection-us-court-part-32-bln-debt-overhaul-2023-08-18/

HONG KONG/NEW YORK, Aug 18 (Reuters) - Embattled developer China Evergrande Group (3333.HK) has filed for U.S. bankruptcy protection as part of one of the world's biggest debt restructurings, as anxiety grows over China's worsening property crisis and its impact on the weakening economy.

China unexpectedly lowered several key interest rates earlier this week in a bid to shore up struggling activity and is expected to cut prime loan rates on Monday, but analysts say moves so far have been too little, too late, with much more forceful measures needed to stem the economy's downward spiral.

This has been a long time coming for Evergrande, and it is a sign of worsening conditions in China.  
 

It’s a very provocative development when you consider that the BRICS nations are meeting tomorrow and rumour has it they may be admitting more countries such as Saudi Arabia.  They also are looking at issuing a new gold backed currency.  
 

And what might that do to the US dollar?

 

While Moonbox puts his head in the sand, let’s take another look at China.  Because another giant real estate developer is in serious trouble there.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/kenrapoza/2023/08/29/china-real-estate-giant-country-garden-could-be-next-to-go-bust/amp/

“Like Evergrande, Country Garden is about to become a household name for those working in the markets. It is China’s top real estate developer in terms of sales and is now poised to become the next casualty in China’s debt crisis. One of China’s best business news agencies, Caixin Global, said Country Garden was poised to default on its bond payments next month, barring a white knight or grace period extension.”

What does this mean?  According to moonbat, we can safely ignore the mounting bankruptcies around the globe. But this is developing just like the 2008 crash.  Warning signs like this, and then financial leaders releasing statements in the media about how there’s nothing wrong as banks fail and the like.  Because they know what’s coming and they are trying to protect their investments.  Well good luck with that…

 

Edited September 16, 2023 by sharkman

[sharkman]

https://www.crypto-news-flash.com/elon-musk-unveils-shocking-reasons-behind-global-shift-away-from-the-us-dollar-to-bitcoin-btc/

Terming the development a serious issue, Musk gave his reason for the ditching of the dollar as the US policy being too heavy-handed, encouraging countries to ditch the dollar. In a separate post, the entrepreneur added that this is combined with excess government spending. This, in his view, forces other countries to absorb a significant part of its inflation.

…

an intergovernmental organization of ten Southeast Asian countries including  Brunei, Cambodia, Indonesia, Laos, Malaysia, Myanmar, the Philippines, Singapore, Thailand, and Vietnam announced plans to ditch the US Dollar and put forward their local currencies for global trade.

Also in the article it mentions BRICS, these economic alliances are shifting away from using the US dollar.  This will impact USD, it’s just a question  of when.  This, coupled with the US economy stalling, high interest rates and national debt of 33 trillion needing to be serviced, points to a very rough winter.

 

 

[Moonbox]

On 9/16/2023 at 12:14 PM, sharkman said:

What does this mean?  According to moonbat, we can safely ignore the mounting bankruptcies around the globe. But this is developing just like the 2008 crash.  Warning signs like this, and then financial leaders releasing statements in the media about how there’s nothing wrong as banks fail and the like.  Because they know what’s coming and they are trying to protect their investments.  Well good luck with that…

According to moonbat, Evergrande's bankruptcy has been looming for the last 2 years, and it's a Chinese company (going to play out great in this rising BRIICS alliance you have such a boner for).  

A recession is imminent.  That was something all the economists were talking about even during COVID lockdowns.  The huge government spending would lead to rising rates, which would stall the economy.  Back then they predicted 2025.  It's probably sooner.  Canada's probably already in recession.  The US probably isn't far behind.  

That's not a financial collapse, however, and I'm not sure how a Chinese bankruptcy is supporting your case about a new Chinese-led world order.  If you were actually thinking for yourself, rather than reposting random links off your Twitter feed, you might actually be able to form a coherent narrative.  

 

[sharkman]

We seem to be posting at cross purposes.