One of Canada's last big oil producers leaves

[jacee]

On 11/4/2019 at 6:05 PM, Moonlight Graham said:

That's not how the market price for oil works.  Oil will only become less valuable when demand goes down or supply increases.  Demand for oil doesn't decrease because people think oil is gross and icky and polluting, it goes down when people physically buy less of it.  That hasn't started much yet, hopefully it will soon though with rise of EVs.

The market price of oil will drop drastically as investors abandon fossil fuels because renewables are more profitable. That will be very soon, and the speed of change will make your head spin. 

In fact, public subsidies of the oil industry are currently all that is artificially propping up its profits.

[jacee]

On 11/4/2019 at 6:07 PM, Moonlight Graham said:

Not sure how this would happen.  Force AB to stop producing oil and making tons of money from it and they'll separate from Canada, without a doubt.  Your friend Elizabeth May never thought that through, like many of her plans.

Alberta will separate ... what? 

They live on Indigenous land.

The Alberta separatist movement is heavily influenced and infested by militant white supremacists, preying on the oil workers' fears. 

Even Jason Kenney says separation is not in Alberta's interests: They can't currently negotiate a pipeline through BC. Separation would make it totally impossible, would just give [BC and 'the East'] "what they want", in Kenney's words. 

Nobody has to "force" Alberta to stop producing oil. Alberta will stop producing oil when it is no longer profitable. 

And the point is fast approaching when investors will abandon oil&gas for renewable energy. In fact, if we weren't propping up the oil industry with public subsidies, renewable energy would already be more profitable and investors would have already fled the oil fields. 

In a free market.  

No investment in oil = no work.

 

https://calgaryherald.com/business/local-business/alberta-government-subsidies-to-oil-and-gas-sector-growing-report/amp

Joshua Buck of Environmental Defence. ...  said the provincial government appears to be “chasing job creation in the short-term” by extending billions of dollars of support to the fossil fuel sector. But he said the subsidies actually serve to slow Alberta’s move to renewable energy, instead of encouraging the diversification he believes is necessary.

Edited November 9, 2019 by jacee

[Argus]

31 minutes ago, jacee said:

Profitability in the free market will change that very soon. And it will change very quickly. 

Then you don't need to worry about anything, do you?

[Argus]

17 minutes ago, jacee said:

Alberta will separate ... what? 

They live on Indigenous land.

The Alberta separatist movement are a bunch of know-nothing idiots, heavily infested with white supremacist militants, preying on the oil workers' fears.

Even Jason Kenney says separation is stupid: They can't currently negotiate a pipeline through BC. Separation would make it totally impossible, would just give BC and 'the East' "what they want", in Kenney's words. 

The Americans will take their oil, and they won't have to forward billions to Quebec in transfer payments, which will make life much better in Alberta.

[jacee]

On 11/4/2019 at 6:14 PM, Cannucklehead said:

Wont happen anytime soon.  1st world countries may be able to go fully electric soon but 2nd and 3rd wont be able to for a very long time.   By the looks of things 1st world countries will be still using fossil fuels for another 10-20 years minimum.   

When profitability tips to renewables, it'll roll out so fast your head will spin.

 

[Moonlight Graham]

1 hour ago, jacee said:

The market price of oil will drop drastically as investors abandon fossil fuels because renewables are more profitable. That will be very soon, and the speed of change will make your head spin. 

In fact, public subsidies of the oil industry are currently all that is artificially propping up its profits.

link?

[Guest PPC2019]

51 minutes ago, jacee said:

When profitability tips to renewables, it'll roll out so fast your head will spin.

 

I wouldn't hold your breath. 15 years ago I met a man on a VIA rail train in his late 80's. We shared the dinner table with him, and I asked him about his career. He told me was as assistant to one of the automatic scientist at Manhattan. He told me he's worked with a lot of powerful people in his life, and you would have to meet him, to realize he was the real deal.

I asked him what's holding back the electric car, and he told me batteries...

He said, if you think Lithium Ion is the best we got, than i'm dreaming.

He said we can make non-radioactive batteries, that would make you're cellphone last for months.

So I asked him, why aren't they building them.... He said.. They will, but the until the oil runs out, there is too much money to be made.

 

It makes sense... you don't think Lithium Ion is the best we got.

 

If we could store power, it would be a game changer for the renewable resource sector.

People would switch to electric cars instantly, if they were made cheaper and had good range.... just because it cheaper to charge them, than to buy gasoline.

 

Another thing is.... The green companies are greedy, and want government subsidies to overcharge on their products.... If we really had mass manufacturing, we could make solar shingles cheaper than the real thing.

Green people think they can charge whatever they want, because they think they are saving the planet, so being greedy can be excused.

When I was a brainwashed environmentalist, I went to a windmill workshop, and the owner charged $400 to 15 people, for a 12 hour lesson over two days.

All he did was slideshows.

Edited November 9, 2019 by PPC2019

[jacee]

1 hour ago, Moonlight Graham said:

link?

That's true worldwide. 

https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2019/aug/01/fossil-fuel-subsidy-cash-pay-green-energy-transition

The new analysis shows how redirecting some of the fossil fuel subsidies could decisively tip the balance in favour of green energy, making it the cheapest electricity available and instigating a rapid global rollout.

Fossil fuels subsidised by $10m a minute, says IMF

“Almost everywhere, renewables are so close to being competitive that [a 10-30% subsidy swap] tips the balance, and turns them from a technology that is slowly growing to one that is instantly the most viable and can replace really large amounts of generation,” said Richard Bridle of the IISD. “It goes from being marginal to an absolute no-brainer.”

Investors go where the profit is, and oil collapses without investors. Fast. 

Edited November 9, 2019 by jacee

[WestCanMan]

6 hours ago, jacee said:

Nonsense. Albertans are wasting time and anger blaming Trudeau. He did what people elected him to do. That's democracy. There was and is no public will, no social license, no public consent for anymore pipelines in Canada:

Trudeau got elected while saying that he would get TMX done, so this clearly was not a case of "There was and is no public will, no social license, no public consent for anymore pipelines in Canada". That's a lie.

Quote

If oil gets piped and shipped, it gets burned somewhere. Emissions from burning oil anywhere in the world are like peeing in the pool: It affects the entire planet.

There will be trillions of dollars made selling oil around the world before it's phased out. You'd have to be a total moron to believe that we should leave ours in the ground while every other country on earth continues to sell oil, including Saudi Arabia and Venezuela selling oil in eastern Canada.

Quote

Canadians know that, and voted to stop that.

Same lie, twice.

Quote

Albertans who are planning and prepping for their future beyond the oil industry will do ok. Those who continue their dependency on the oil industry may not. It's a personal choice. Nobody can blame Trudeau or anyone else if they fail to inform themselves, fail to manage their own future.

This is the stupidest thing that you've ever said here. Ten percent of the country's GDP is going straight into the toilet. Whole communities in Alberta are built around the oil patch. People build and service wells and pipelines. There's trucking and other support services involved in shipping oil. The money that gets spent in the grocery stores and coffee shops all comes directly or indirectly from oil. Tourism isn't suddenly going to pick up in Fort Mac where oil $$$ leave off. Whole communities will just cease to exist.

You live in a country where you get free medical and free education for 13 years. The $$ for that isn't coming from forestry and fishing anymore. It's not coming from mining. Agriculture money alone isn't enough to support all that. We are not a global force in manufacturing. The standard of living that you enjoy is largely dependent on oil. 

If you even had a clue how the global economy works you'd know that we have to have some sort of exports to back up our currency so that little millenial socialists can afford to import iphones and laptops from China. If you're a barista you can actually work for 1,000 years and not a bring $1 into the country. It's actually a net loss for our country because we import all that coffee. Being a teacher or a cop or a fireman or being in the military doesn't add to our economy either. Most of the people that you know just have jobs re-circulating money around the country. 

How many people do you know whose jobs actually have anything to do with bringing money back into Canada? Probably not even 5%. 

Quote

 

Only white supremacists refer to antifa and BLM as "violent", and including BLM exposes you as such. (It's not a Canadian issue.)

 

More of your blatant stupidity and lies, easily exposed. From Wiki:

Quote

The antifa (/ænˈtiːfə, ˈæntiˌfɑː/)^[1] movement is composed of left-wing, autonomous, militant anti-fascist^[7] groups and individuals in the United States.^[11] The principal feature of antifa groups is their use of direct action,^[12] with conflicts occurring both online and in real life.^[13] They engage in varied protest tactics, which include digital activism, property damage, physical violence, and harassment 

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/antifa-attack-portland-andy-ngo-portland-proud-boys-alt-right-a8981331.html

There are 1,000 videos like this around. The last 3 years of Obama's presidency saw serious rioting, looting and arson on a daily basis, and mass cop-killing was a thing.

We even had a violent bigot running the BLM here in Canada:

https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/toronto/yusra-khogali-twitter-the-star-1.3529105

In all honesty you're the only real racist here jacee. No one else has been caught making racists statements lately and just because your accusations are moronic doesn't make them any less serious.

Quote

 

Antifa are trained and skilled in defensive tactics. It really angers volatile white supremacists, when their rage, intimidation and violence are ably diverted.

Oh well. 

Brains over brawn. Lol 

 

OMG, that's some funny s* right there. 

Edited November 10, 2019 by WestCanMan

[jacee]

17 hours ago, WestCanMan said:

Trudeau got elected while saying that he would get TMX done, so this clearly was not a case of "There was and is no public will, no social license, no public consent for anymore pipelines in Canada". That's a lie.

He lost his majority, barely held on. And TMX is not a done deal yet. Wait for it ... 

Quote

There will be trillions of dollars made selling oil around the world before it's phased out. You'd have to be a total moron to believe that we should leave ours in the ground while every other country on earth continues to sell oil, including Saudi Arabia and Venezuela selling oil in eastern Canada.[/quote]

It isn't about money. It's about the science. Buring fossil fuels is killing us. 

 

This is the stupidest thing that you've ever said here. Ten percent of the

country's GDP is going straight into the toilet.

No, that's %gdp for the entire energy sector. Oil is less than half, ~5%. Alberta oil, less still. 

 

Whole communities in Alberta are built around the oil patch. People build and service wells and pipelines. There's trucking and other support services involved in shipping oil. The money that gets spent in the grocery stores and coffee shops all comes directly or indirectly from oil. Tourism isn't suddenly going to pick up in Fort Mac where oil $$$ leave off. Whole communities will just cease to exist.

I understand that, and it's frightening. But ... either people are going to plan ahead for a smooth (and early) transition out of the oil industry,  or it's going to hit them when they least expect it and they're unprepared. 

 

You live in a country where you get free medical and free education for 13 years. The $$ for that isn't coming from forestry and fishing anymore. It's not coming from mining. Agriculture money alone isn't enough to support all that. We are not a global force in manufacturing. The standard of living that you enjoy is largely dependent on oil.

Again, oil is only 5% of GDP. It's important to all Canadians, but not as important as you inflate it to sound.  And it's an industry on its last legs, only profitable now because it's propped up by public money. 

Truth.

And I really hope Albertans are paying attention so they are not caught unaware. Certainly, oil companies won't tell people the truth. 

Edited November 10, 2019 by jacee

[WestCanMan]

4 minutes ago, jacee said:

No, that's %gdp for the entire energy sector. Oil is less than half, ~5%. Alberta oil, less still. 

http://www.worldstopexports.com/canadas-top-exports/

Quote

The following export product groups categorize the highest dollar value in Canadian global shipments during 2018. Also shown is the percentage share each export category represents in terms of overall exports from Canada.

1. Mineral fuels including oil: US$99.3 billion (22% of total exports)
2. Vehicles: $60.5 billion (13.4%)
3. Machinery including computers: $34.5 billion (7.7%)
4. Gems, precious metals: $18.3 billion (4.1%)
5. Wood: $14.3 billion (3.2%)
6. Plastics, plastic articles: $13.6 billion (3%)
7. Electrical machinery, equipment: $13.4 billion (3%)
8. Aircraft, spacecraft: $10.6 billion (2.4%)
9. Aluminum: $10 billion (2.2%)
10. Paper, paper items: $8 billion (1.8%)

There ya go jacee. Oil accounted for 22% of the value of Canada's exports in 2018, and it was only selling at 50% of it's value on a good day. That number could have easily been as high as $200 Billion. Vehicles, at #2, are HIGHLY subsidized. Aircraft? Even more than vehicles. We lose a crapload of money there. Oil is not subsidized. Foreign companies were already scheduled to invest $135 Billion when Trudeau got elected in 2015. That's 30x as much as we paid for TMX.

Once you take the money from oil out of that entire equation up there, how much money is left for subsidizing the auto, aircraft, and other industries? What will happen to then once they're no longer subsidized? When the hundreds of thousands of oil workers go into the private sector or work in services industries where's the money going to come into Canada from? What will we be selling to other countries? We can't just keep getting cars and computers and cell phones from other countries if they're not buying anything from us. It doesn't work like that jacee. Our currency will be worth nothing if we don't export anything to the world.

The Saudis and Iranians and everyone else will continue to profit massively from exporting oil while Canada's economy literally goes into a nosedive if we just kill off the oil sands. Your whole plan is monumentally stupid. 

[Guest PPC2019]

1 hour ago, WestCanMan said:

http://www.worldstopexports.com/canadas-top-exports/

There ya go jacee. Oil accounted for 22% of the value of Canada's exports in 2018, and it was only selling at 50% of it's value on a good day. That number could have easily been as high as $200 Billion. Vehicles, at #2, are HIGHLY subsidized. Aircraft? Even more than vehicles. We lose a crapload of money there. Oil is not subsidized. Foreign companies were already scheduled to invest $135 Billion when Trudeau got elected in 2015. That's 30x as much as we paid for TMX.

Once you take the money from oil out of that entire equation up there, how much money is left for subsidizing the auto, aircraft, and other industries? What will happen to then once they're no longer subsidized? When the hundreds of thousands of oil workers go into the private sector or work in services industries where's the money going to come into Canada from? What will we be selling to other countries? We can't just keep getting cars and computers and cell phones from other countries if they're not buying anything from us. It doesn't work like that jacee. Our currency will be worth nothing if we don't export anything to the world.

The Saudis and Iranians and everyone else will continue to profit massively from exporting oil while Canada's economy literally goes into a nosedive if we just kill off the oil sands. Your whole plan is monumentally stupid. 

Just ask her what will happen to the native reserves, if we don't support oil? Where will be the money to stop them deteriorating even more? I guess will be witnessing an even more greater string of suicides.

It's already happening Ontario, because we're broke.

Is looking green more important, than the children hanging themselves in reserves?

Canada produces 1.6% of the words greenhouse emissions. I don't think will be responsible for Armageddon, If you shut down our economy, be prepared to see apocalyptic poverty in small towns and reserves, right across this great land.

Ben Shapiro says it best. "Fact's Don't Care About Your Feelings."

Edited November 10, 2019 by PPC2019

[jacee]

19 hours ago, WestCanMan said:

http://www.worldstopexports.com/canadas-top-exports/

There ya go jacee. Oil accounted for 22% of the value of Canada's exports in 2018, and it was only selling at 50% of it's value on a good day. That number could have easily been as high as $200 Billion. Vehicles, at #2, are HIGHLY subsidized. Aircraft? Even more than vehicles. We lose a crapload of money there. Oil is not subsidized. Foreign companies were already scheduled to invest $135 Billion when Trudeau got elected in 2015. That's 30x as much as we paid for TMX.

Once you take the money from oil out of that entire equation up there, how much money is left for subsidizing the auto, aircraft, and other industries? What will happen to then once they're no longer subsidized? When the hundreds of thousands of oil workers go into the private sector or work in services industries where's the money going to come into Canada from? What will we be selling to other countries? We can't just keep getting cars and computers and cell phones from other countries if they're not buying anything from us. It doesn't work like that jacee. Our currency will be worth nothing if we don't export anything to the world.

The Saudis and Iranians and everyone else will continue to profit massively from exporting oil while Canada's economy literally goes into a nosedive if we just kill off the oil sands. Your whole plan is monumentally stupid. 

The 'currency' of importance now is not money. The only 'currency' of concern is a healthy planet we can continue to live on safely. Other oil exporting countries may continue on a homicidal and suicidal track. We can only take care of ourselves, make sure we are not the problem.

Here's the 'currency' that matters:

https://www.nationalobserver.com/2019/05/27/analysis/surprise-most-canada-track-hit-our-2020-climate-target

This on-target group includes Ontario, Quebec, British Columbia, Manitoba, Nova Scotia, New Brunswick, Newfoundland and Labrador, Prince Edward Island, Northwest Territories, Yukon and Nunavut.

Unfortunately, the good news story turns sour when we include the two remaining provinces — Alberta and Saskatchewan.

Those provinces increased their pollution by 17 per cent.

Oil operations are no longer even economically feasible without public subsidies.

And they are a major problem for pollution and for life on the planet.

That's the 'currency' we have to be concerned about. 

[WestCanMan]

7 hours ago, jacee said:

The 'currency' of importance now is not money. The only 'currency' of concern is a healthy planet we can continue to live on safely. Other oil exporting countries may continue on a homicidal and suicidal track. We can only take care of ourselves, make sure we are not the problem.

Here's the 'currency' that matters:

https://www.nationalobserver.com/2019/05/27/analysis/surprise-most-canada-track-hit-our-2020-climate-target

This on-target group includes Ontario, Quebec, British Columbia, Manitoba, Nova Scotia, New Brunswick, Newfoundland and Labrador, Prince Edward Island, Northwest Territories, Yukon and Nunavut.

Unfortunately, the good news story turns sour when we include the two remaining provinces — Alberta and Saskatchewan.

Those provinces increased their pollution by 17 per cent.

 Oil operations are no longer even economically feasible without public subsidies. 

And they are a major problem for pollution and for life on the planet.

That's the 'currency' we have to be concerned about. 

Lol. Money is not important. Thanks jacee.

Quote

Oil operations are no longer even economically feasible without public subsidies

Oil is selling under value because of our federal government, and feasibility wasn't an issue when corporations were investing their own $135 billion into the oil and gas industry.

I don't even need to ask you for a cite because all your talking points are literally idiotic jacee.

[cannuck]

Our western heavy (WCS) blend is selling at a great discount because it is not the kind of thing a simple refinery (complexity in single digits) can use.  The bituminous fraction (considerable) requires upgrading to feed a significant portion of refineries that now exist.  We SHOULD have been able to rush in behind Venezuela when Maduro screwed up so badly that Orinoco crudes were no longer welcome on the Gulf coast, but the fantastic increases in shale (and other) light/medium crudes from advances in reservoir fracturing means our normal export target market is flush with lighter/better feedstock.  IF we had a pipeline to Cushing way back a decade or two ago, we could have replaced Orinoco, but so long after the fact, many refineries have been reconfigured to use lighter feedstocks - and as I said, those are now plentiful.

Yes, Government is a big part of the problem, but the real issue is that we don't have much oil on tidewater - which is how one exports anywhere but to our convenient neighbour.

BTW:  I am still waiting for one of those subsidies to show up in my mailbox or bank account.

[eyeball]

6 minutes ago, cannuck said:

BTW:  I am still waiting for one of those subsidies to show up in my mailbox or bank account.

You probably need to be a lot farther up the food chain than Internet fossil fuel warrior.

[Argus]

On 11/9/2019 at 6:22 PM, jacee said:

That's true worldwide. 

https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2019/aug/01/fossil-fuel-subsidy-cash-pay-green-energy-transition

The new analysis shows how redirecting some of the fossil fuel subsidies could decisively tip the balance in favour of green energy, making it the 

Bullshit.

I note that the cite says fossil fuel subsidies are "defined as fuel consumption times the gap between existing and efficient prices (i.e., prices warranted by supply costs, environmental costs, and revenue considerations)," 

In other words, they're not actually subsidies, ie money paid by the government to the oil industry at all. What these people have done is estimated what the government ought to charge fossil fuel makers in order to make up for all estimated health and environmental costs they attach to the use of fossil fuels. Of course, governments don't charge this because if they tried to they'd be murdered by their constituents who don't enjoy the idea of freezing to death in the dark because of the thirty or forty dollar a gallon cost of oil.

[Argus]

On 11/11/2019 at 8:52 AM, jacee said:

Unfortunately, the good news story turns sour when we include the two remaining provinces — Alberta and Saskatchewan.

 

Those provinces increased their pollution by 17 per cent.

Oil operations are no longer even economically feasible without public subsidies.

Uh huh. And coincidentally, this was out today.\

Now guess why Alberta contributes the lions share of money to the federal government every year to be redistributed to the welfare provinces like Quebec in order to pay their bills. Go ahead, guess.

https://nationalpost.com/news/canada/how-alberta-pays-quebecs-bills-four-charts-that-show-alberta-picks-up-the-tab?video_autoplay=true

[Argus]

Andrew Roman makes the point of what a ridiculous waste of time all this caterwauling about the Paris Accords are, and how little they're intended to accomplish.

We need to stop pretending the Paris Agreement will fix the 'climate crisis'
Opinion: Are we really willing to suffer painfully high taxes to fund new energy infrastructure while China and others massively increase their emissions?

The current panic over the “climate crisis” makes it politically necessary for most governments to respond with dramatic displays of determination to “fight climate change.” Unfortunately, as Nobel Prize-winning economist William Nordhaus has written: “The reality is that most countries are on a business-as-usual trajectory of minimal policies to reduce their emissions … The international target for climate change with a limit of 2°C appears to be infeasible with reasonably accessible technologies even with very ambitious abatement strategies.” Meeting the UN’s global emissions reduction target for 2030 and achieving carbon neutrality by 2050 are not practically possible. The only safe political path between the panic and the possible is to pretend to do the impossible —  which is the real purpose of the Paris Agreement.

Already, after just four years, only 17 of 195 countries are on track to their targets. If every country met its stated 2030 goals, how close would the planet come to the year 2100 targetof 1.5°C maximum warming? Not close. According to economist Bjorn Lomborg, the reduction in warming would be less than five per cent of 1°C. Even if nations stay on track all the way to 2100, that gets you only 13 per cent of the 1.5°C target.

In addition to targeting CO2 emissions, the Paris Agreement aims to transfer wealth. Developed countries have agreed to transfer $100 billion annually to developing countries, starting in 2020, to help them reduce emissions. The U.S., which had been expected to pay about $45 billion annually, recently announced it is quitting the agreement. With the U.S. out, this key part of the agreement will probably fail.

https://business.financialpost.com/opinion/we-need-to-stop-pretending-the-paris-agreement-will-fix-the-climate-crisis

[cannuck]

Argus:  I know you mean well, but you fail to understand what role government wants to play.  By taking in massive chunks of the money in the country, they get to pick winners and losers in re-distributing said money.  For example: billions to CBC to propogate the agenda of the left.  Notice the 300 billion to Quebec, Nova Scotia and New Brunswick - wanna guess how they vote?  Now, letting government pick winners and losers is, as you might imagine, a really, really stupid idea.   I have yet to see a government on this planet that could organize a piss up at a brewery, but we entrust them with the future of our planet???   Get serious.   Then, there is the REAL agenda: funding agencies that can not only pick winners and losers, but also benefit directly to the back door money to the party, and to "retired" political figures.  SNC pretty much the poster child for that kind of stuff.

The business of government should be to govern - i.e. regulate and enforce fair and level playing field in which the economy can work to respond to market forces.  Instead, we allow them to dispense privilege - which is IMHO the absolute key point of what defines good vs. bad in government and administration.