bush_cheney2004 Posted January 13, 2019 Report Share Posted January 13, 2019 Just now, DogOnPorch said: By 'nuclear war' I mean any exchange or detonation of nuclear weapons. Be it terrorism or a lone MRBM aimed at Tel Aviv. If you mean any high order detonation that is not a test, then this is likely to happen in the next 25 years. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DogOnPorch Posted January 13, 2019 Author Report Share Posted January 13, 2019 (edited) 9 minutes ago, bush_cheney2004 said: If you mean any high order detonation that is not a test, then this is likely to happen in the next 25 years. Can't argue with that. India vs Pakistan still seems the safe horse. But that Iran, you've got to admire their determination to rid the planet of Israel. Edited January 13, 2019 by DogOnPorch Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DogOnPorch Posted January 13, 2019 Author Report Share Posted January 13, 2019 This cute little simulator shows the importance of beryllium reflectors and high levels of enrichment. http://blog.nuclearsecrecy.com/misc/criticality/ Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bush_cheney2004 Posted January 13, 2019 Report Share Posted January 13, 2019 1 minute ago, DogOnPorch said: Can't argue with that. India vs Pakistan still seems the safe horse. But that Iran, you got to admire their determination to rid the planet of Israel. Not even that so much as the battle to keep fissile materials unavailable to rogue actors....the design and construction has been open source since Dr. Khan did his thing in Pakistan. That's why Iran has so many centrifuges and can build components for 60 more each day. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DogOnPorch Posted January 13, 2019 Author Report Share Posted January 13, 2019 1 minute ago, bush_cheney2004 said: Not even that so much as the battle to keep fissile materials unavailable to rogue actors....the design and construction has been open source since Dr. Khan did his thing in Pakistan. That's why Iran has so many centrifuges and can build components for 60 more each day. Tel Aviv, you've got to figure, is the ideal candidate for the tramp freighter delivery method...Iron Dome this. But it would need a biggie...100 kt or better otherwise it's just gonna make 'em mad. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bush_cheney2004 Posted January 13, 2019 Report Share Posted January 13, 2019 3 minutes ago, DogOnPorch said: Tel Aviv, you've got to figure, is the ideal candidate for the tramp freighter delivery method...Iron Dome this. But it would need a biggie...100 kt or better otherwise it's just gonna make 'em mad. That's why Israel has five Dolphin class subs, equipped with SLCMs. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DogOnPorch Posted January 13, 2019 Author Report Share Posted January 13, 2019 Just now, bush_cheney2004 said: That's why Israel has five Dolphin class subs, equipped with SLCMs. Plus their suspected cobalt device in Dimona. Nothing says thanks for invading like Co-60 coating the entire Middle East. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bush_cheney2004 Posted January 13, 2019 Report Share Posted January 13, 2019 1 minute ago, DogOnPorch said: Plus their suspected cobalt device in Dimona. Nothing says thanks for invading like Co-60 coating the entire Middle East. What happened to The Ukraine was a major setback for any nuclear weapons peaceniks. Israel knows better than to fall for that kind of con job. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dougie93 Posted January 13, 2019 Report Share Posted January 13, 2019 (edited) 35 minutes ago, bush_cheney2004 said: It is destabilizing for the Rooskies (much like Reagan's Strategic Defense Initiative aka "Star Wars"), but that is not the main purpose. So called rogue states and actors are more of a threat, so we get layered BMD and hypersonic warhead platforms. Oh I know, it's a confluence of technological and economic displacements wherein the Russians keep falling further and further behind, but because asymmetry in the Balance of Terror can cause irrational responses, ill thought out maneuvers, and reckless gambits, what the main purpose of anything is irrelevant to unintended consequences. For example the Soviets were gaga for Castro, they viewed him as a romantic figure, a young turk to breathe live into the World Socialist Revolution, so they got caught up in that and irrationally felt like they needed to defend him. Then they figured they could put missiles in Cuba and America would just get over it, missiles in Turkey, missiles in Cuba, quid pro quo. But that's not how America reacted, America reacted to "Nuclear Pearl Harbour". . . . . . and then you're away to the races and where is goes nobody knows and once the ball is rolling it's hard to stop. Edited January 13, 2019 by Dougie93 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DogOnPorch Posted January 13, 2019 Author Report Share Posted January 13, 2019 Just now, bush_cheney2004 said: What happened to The Ukraine was a major setback for any nuclear weapons peaceniks. Israel knows better than to fall for that kind of con job. Never Again...etc. I think they were serious at the time... The Ukraine/Ukrainia was indeed shafted on the nuclear weapons and delivery methods...and next thing they know they're playing Grad Rocket shoot n' scoot with Putin. War porn to follow... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bush_cheney2004 Posted January 13, 2019 Report Share Posted January 13, 2019 3 minutes ago, Dougie93 said: But that's not how America reacted, America reacted to "Nuclear Pearl Harbour". . . . . . and then you're away to the races and where is goes nobody knows and once the ball is rolling it's hard to stop. But America eventually dismantled all civil defense measures and embraced MAD....the existential threat is more palatable than terrorism or a crashing economy. Hollywood made serious (Fail Safe) and not so serious (Dr. Strangelove) films even back in the day to accept the inevitability of nuclear war. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dougie93 Posted January 13, 2019 Report Share Posted January 13, 2019 1 minute ago, bush_cheney2004 said: But America eventually dismantled all civil defense measures and embraced MAD....the existential threat is more palatable than terrorism or a crashing economy. Hollywood made serious (Fail Safe) and not so serious (Dr. Strangelove) films even back in the day to accept the inevitability of nuclear war. Somebody forgot to tell the Pentagon, because they are still building a counterforce option, slowly but surely, by default. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DogOnPorch Posted January 13, 2019 Author Report Share Posted January 13, 2019 3 minutes ago, bush_cheney2004 said: But America eventually dismantled all civil defense measures and embraced MAD....the existential threat is more palatable than terrorism or a crashing economy. Hollywood made serious (Fail Safe) and not so serious (Dr. Strangelove) films even back in the day to accept the inevitability of nuclear war. Got to love the side-by-side seating in the B-58 Hustler in Fail Safe. I nit pick... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bush_cheney2004 Posted January 13, 2019 Report Share Posted January 13, 2019 1 minute ago, Dougie93 said: Somebody forgot to tell the Pentagon, because they are still building a counterforce option, slowly but surely, by default. There has always been a first strike option for the Pentagon, we just aren't allowed to talk about it. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dougie93 Posted January 13, 2019 Report Share Posted January 13, 2019 It doesn't matter what you say the purpose of something is, a counterforce option is a counterforce option, and they know it when they see it. You can tell the Russians not to deploy INF's cause the Aegis Ashore in Poland and Romania can load nuclear TLAM's "but they aren't loaded right naow", but pretty sure that's not going to convince them. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bush_cheney2004 Posted January 13, 2019 Report Share Posted January 13, 2019 (edited) 6 minutes ago, DogOnPorch said: Got to love the side-by-side seating in the B-58 Hustler in Fail Safe. I nit pick... Fail Safe was excellent, but not enough laughs (hell, zero laughs) to sell tickets like Strangelove. Edited January 13, 2019 by bush_cheney2004 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bush_cheney2004 Posted January 13, 2019 Report Share Posted January 13, 2019 3 minutes ago, Dougie93 said: It doesn't matter what you say the purpose of something is, a counterforce option is a counterforce option, and they know it when they see it. You can tell the Russians not to deploy INF's cause the Aegis Ashore in Poland and Romania can load nuclear TLAM's "but they aren't loaded right naow", but pretty sure that's not going to convince them. Reagan convinced the Soviets with Pershing II missiles and nuclear armed ALCMs. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DogOnPorch Posted January 13, 2019 Author Report Share Posted January 13, 2019 1 minute ago, bush_cheney2004 said: Fail Safe was excellent, but not enough laughs to sell tickets like Strangelove. Not much of a movie if the crew couldn't talk face to face. Hollywood exception... The 3 B-58 crew couldn't see each other, as you no doubt know. Plus they were packed into the open clam (Stanley Ejection Pod). Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dougie93 Posted January 13, 2019 Report Share Posted January 13, 2019 3 minutes ago, bush_cheney2004 said: There has always been a first strike option for the Pentagon, we just aren't allowed to talk about it. And I support that, because on this I am with the Neocons, and in fact, MAD is derp, utopian policy making. That being said, no half measures, inciting an escalation and then not following through is worst of both worlds, if you're going counterforce, go all the way, because once you start down the path, you need to be able to back it up, to the brink. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bush_cheney2004 Posted January 13, 2019 Report Share Posted January 13, 2019 Just now, Dougie93 said: And I support that, because on this I am with the Neocons, and in fact, MAD is derp, utopian policy making. That being said, no half measures, inciting an escalation and then not following through is worst of both worlds, if you're going counterforce, go all the way, because once you start down the path, you need to be able to back it up, to the brink. Depends on circumstances....Amerikanskis nor Rooskies are stupid enough to go to the brink for proxy wars....that why we have proxy wars. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DogOnPorch Posted January 13, 2019 Author Report Share Posted January 13, 2019 2 minutes ago, Dougie93 said: And I support that, because on this I am with the Neocons, and in fact, MAD is derp, utopian policy making. That being said, no half measures, inciting an escalation and then not following through is worst of both worlds, if you're going counterforce, go all the way, because once you start down the path, you need to be able to back it up, to the brink. Well if the USA and Russia could ever settle their differences and become allies, they could take over the entire world (maniacal laughter). Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bush_cheney2004 Posted January 13, 2019 Report Share Posted January 13, 2019 (edited) 4 minutes ago, DogOnPorch said: Not much of a movie if the crew couldn't talk face to face. Hollywood exception... The 3 B-58 crew couldn't see each other, as you no doubt know. Plus they were packed into the open clam (Stanley Ejection Pod). The B-58 wouldn't be much of a hustler without clam seating. Edited January 13, 2019 by bush_cheney2004 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DogOnPorch Posted January 13, 2019 Author Report Share Posted January 13, 2019 Just now, bush_cheney2004 said: The B-58 would't be much of a hustler without clam seating. Not too comfy according to my sources...luckily it was FAST. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dougie93 Posted January 13, 2019 Report Share Posted January 13, 2019 2 minutes ago, DogOnPorch said: Well if the USA and Russia could ever settle their differences and become allies, they could take over the entire world (maniacal laughter). But like I say, I don't do utopian policy making. We are where we are, 15 minutes notice to launch, that is not the time to consult the NDP as to what to do about it. I also think it would be a political win for the Americans to say that they don't do countervalue anymore, they're not going to target population centers because that would be pointless destruction for its own sake, and instead they are going to deploy a much more formidable, and as a result credible, super counterforce only deterrent. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DogOnPorch Posted January 13, 2019 Author Report Share Posted January 13, 2019 Apparently it's the U-2 flights of today that are a problem for the pilots re: comfort. The U-2 pressurizes to 30,000 ft which is why you need a pressure suit. The current suit is only a partial pressurization (for comfort) design and meant to be worn for 8 hours or less...preferably less...but the extra long flights of today are actually giving the U-2 pilots a case of the 'slow bends' as even after going on 100% oxygen pre-flight, there's always SOME nitrogen in the ol' veins. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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