Next Federal Gov't

[theloniusfleabag]

Here are a few scenarios that we might see in the next election. I do not discount the fact that Canadians are apathetic when it comes to politics, and voting in the Liberals again wouldn't be a surprise. I have included only the BQ as holding the balance of power in the minority gov't selections because most parties would like to appease Quebec, and keep the separation issue off the table.

[Argus]

The problem for the tories is that the NDP, and BQ are both fairly left of centre. They'd be much more comfortable, in most cases, supporting a minority Liberal government than a minority Tory government. As well, getting into a coallition with the BQ presents numerous image problems.

The most likely government is the one you don't have on your list, which is a Tory version of the present government. A minority without any clear coallition partner, depending for its existence on the other parties not wanting to anger the electorate by going quickly back to the polls.

In that case the Tories could seek partners on particular issues. For example, on health care reform, the BQ would likely support significant movement towards moving towards a mixed system such as exists now in Europe. All three parties would likely support a tory move to expand the AG's office and change the auditing process so that there is tighter monitoring of government expenditures and more reporting to parliament.

The trick for the Tories would be to stay in power long enough, and be reasonable enough in power, to remove the taint the leftists have succesfully put on all conservatives as wild-eyed extremists. Even a year in government would probably do that. I think, in fact, that most Canadians would probably feel comfortable with a tory minority, as there would be no threat of social policy regressions.

To get a majority the Tories need to win back the Ontario seats they used to hold prior to the end of the Mulroney era. They regularly won dozens of seats in Ontario, and there is no reason why they can't do so again. But absent direct links to Martin in the scandal I don't see that happening in the next election. I do see them increasing their seat numbers in Ontario, barring disaster, but not to the extent needed to win a majority.

I see no hope of them winning any significant seats in Quebec unless they get a French Quebec leader. Even then success would depend on the Liberals having a non-Quebec leader at the time. Quebecers will not vote for a party led by a non-Quebecer if they have a Quebecer for an alternative.

[kimmy]

Yeah. What Argus said.

-kim

[Mr. Chater]

Conservative Minority

[The Terrible Sweal]

I think the next election outcome will be a Liberal majority. I don't think this election will be in the very near future. The government won't fall over the sponsorship scandal. I think most Canadians can see the basic truths of this situation. Even if this specific corruption went to the highest office in the land, Paul Martin did not occupy it at the time. Groupaction was at the very center of this, so we have probably heard the worst of it, intensity-wise. The testimony will wrap up and then there's the long wait for the report. If the Martinites have any sense at all they will try to 'take leadership' on this meta-issue in a credible way very quickly, as well as put in a good (enough) effort at pursuing the specific wrongdoers. Meanwhile, if they can ever put together a couple of months of apparent good government people will WANT to give them a longer try.

If the government falls before the report, the Liberals will say the opposition should have waited and that they disrupted their clean-up program.

Digression, prediction: Chretien will get off. Not because of anything the Liberal government or any of its members do, but because the 'Canadian Establishment' will require it.

Further digression: If you understand the implications of the above comment, you will understand why there is no point in punishing the Martin Liberals for this scandal by electing the Torybastards.

[theloniusfleabag]

So far, I have to agree with Argus on this one. The big question mark for the tories is Ontario, and their leader, Steven Harper. He is as exciting as a dead fish. Martin isn't really any better, but the conservatives might do well to have someone with at least a little pizzazz.

[Slavik44]

I am going to say a Liberal majority, although I would lean towards liberals supported by NDP...but that option wasn't available. I don't think the explosive testimoney from the gomery inquiry, was really that explosive, I think when the liberals dropped from 45% almost a year ago...most be assumed basically what was testified by Brault..That the Liberals had been awarding contracts to Liberal friendly ad firms, and gettign something back on the side. It just is not far reaching enough, It may hit hot zones like Alberta and Quebec, and it may give the CPC the lead again in B.C, but that isn't even a conservative minority, let alone majority. Plus if people react, in that manner the CPC is not going to call an election, and the Liberals will rebound, and get a majority...the hope for conservative success is founded on another 10% drop in popularity for the Liberals and I don't know if we can count on that happening as a sure thing.

[kimmy]

I don't get the logic behind that.

While the Liberals haven't yet noted a major drop in nationwide polls, as you note, the Liberals have been hit hard in at least a couple of "hot-zones", Quebec and Alberta at the very least. In fact many observers believe that the Liberals have been so thoroughly battered in Quebec that they could be swept completely off the map, or at the very least lose 15 or more of their Quebec seats. Assuming they lost 15 seats in Quebec and 2 more in Alberta, and held their seats in every riding they currently have, that still leaves them at only 116 seats.

Where are they going to get the 39 more seats they'll need to get a majority?

I'm skeptical that they'll even hang on to all of the ridings they have outside Quebec and Alberta, let alone manage to secure a whopping 39 more. What's going to drive that kind of wave of support? Leaving aside scandals, they haven't exactly been setting the world ablaze with anything else they've done in office either.

Even if most voters disregard the scandals as "not Paul's fault" (a big "if," you'll agree), I still don't see exactly what it is that's going to prompt big numbers of voters who didn't support them in June 2004 to change their mind in November 2005.

-kimmy

[theloniusfleabag]

Dear kimmy,

Even if most voters disregard the scandals as "not Paul's fault" (a big "if," you'll agree), I still don't see exactly what it is that's going to prompt big numbers of voters who didn't support them in June 2004 to change their mind in November 2005.

I think you're right. Quebec will post big BQ numbers in place of any (but not all) Liberal ridings, and Alberta will go Conservative blue, big time. Funny thing, though, Canadians seem to vote for incumbent parties the closer they are to seats of power. Edmonton, for example, had big Liberal support in the last election (well, bigger than any other AB city). It is almost as though people say..."Things aren't so bad....please don't change it, we're just getting used to this devil..."

[willy]

Edmonton, for example, had big Liberal support in the last election (well, bigger than any other AB city).

Anne won by less than 1000 votes and she is the Deputy PM. What big Liberal support are you talking about?

[Argus]

I don't get the logic behind that.

It's called wishful thinking.

As you pointed out, the Liberals are certainly going to lose a lot of seats in Quebec. At present, they're at 29% support in what is largely a two party contest. There is no reason whatever to think they're going to pick up seats in the West. They've got all of Ontario and most of the east anyway. So where in hell can they possibly pick up all this support to get a majority government?

[August1991]

I'll start with Argus' comment (repeated by others):

As you pointed out, the Liberals are certainly going to lose a lot of seats in Quebec.

The BQ might get 4 or 5 more seats in Quebec but that's all. The Liberals will win between 10 and 15. Why? Because these are ridings where people think that what Chretien did was perfectly defendable and wish only that he had done more. (They view Harper and Layton as extremely naive and would never vote for either.)

Argus again:

The trick for the Tories would be to stay in power long enough, and be reasonable enough in power, to remove the taint the leftists have succesfully put on all conservatives as wild-eyed extremists.

The Tories (and Harper in particular) will never get a chance to be perceived as "not extreme". In Ontario at least, the next federal election will be, as in France during the last presidential election, a choice between the crook and the fascist.

If Harper becomes PM, he will always be portrayed with the hint of Hitler mustache. If he tries to be accommodating, they say he is hiding his agenda. The time of cross-over politicians (at least right to left) seems over.

TS:

I think the next election outcome will be a Liberal majority. I don't think this election will be in the very near future. The government won't fall over the sponsorship scandal.

This is the common view on the Left and I find it surprising. I can only suspect that it stems from the abject terror of Harper becoming PM.

On a separate thread, BD said much the same. (As did even I.)

If the Left is downplaying this scandal, the media has certainly decided that it is "explosive". And Kimmy rightly pointed out that Brault's testimony was somehow different. It was graphic and concrete. La Presse on Saturday ran an article suggesting that Brault is a closet separatist (implying that this motivated his testimony).

I guess we'll have to wait for polls in Ontario to see whether Martin got a "benefit of doubt" vote in the last election.

IMV, the Liberals will tank in English Canada if an admission of voting Liberal is clear evidence of cluelessness.

Predictions? I feel safe in predicting the BQ will not form the next government. God knows about the rest.

----

There is another angle to this scandal which is receiving attention in Quebec. If the Liberals are re-elected, Quebecers will be insulted. If Harper is elected, Quebecers wonder what what he would do for Quebec. (One columnist described Harper in Quebec as a Martian on Earth.)

[Bakunin]

The BQ might get 4 or 5 more seats in Quebec but that's all. The Liberals will win between 10 and 15. Why? Because these are ridings where people think that what Chretien did was perfectly defendable and wish only that he had done more. (They view Harper and Layton as extremely naive and would never vote for either.)

I agree, but i like to point out that the seats they will lose are strategic seats. Here are 3 important minister that will lose their county: Jean Lapierre, Lisa Frulla, Pierre Pettigrew. This mean that their will be almost no more quebec wing in the liberal party. Id also like to point out that those minister are in "liberal stronghold" wich became in danger after the sponsorship scandal... However there is no way the bloc can win in english speaking part of quebec id say the liberal will have like 20%-25% in quebec the next election and the bloc something like 55-60%

The Tories (and Harper in particular) will never get a chance to be perceived as "not extreme". In Ontario at least, the next federal election will be, as in France during the last presidential election, a choice between the crook and the fascist.

If Harper becomes PM, he will always be portrayed with the hint of Hitler mustache. If he tries to be accommodating, they say he is hiding his agenda. The time of cross-over politicians (at least right to left) seems over.

If the tories win it will be by default and thats never a good thing cause it mean there is no place for mistake. There is no doubt that the tories will have to be carefull with right policy if they don't want to have problem in quebec.

There is another angle to this scandal which is receiving attention in Quebec. If the Liberals are re-elected, Quebecers will be insulted. If Harper is elected, Quebecers wonder what what he would do for Quebec. (One columnist described Harper in Quebec as a Martian on Earth.)

This is an important point, i saw a poll that showed that 70% of the quebecers wanted election. If their are no election there is a big problem cause the federal government will have no credibility in quebec. However when the tories will get elected, expect the quebecers not to be happy about tories policy. There is no doubt this situation will prove that federalism isn't the best solution for the country. Specially if the tories have 0/75 seats in quebec.

[kimmy]

Dear Fleabag,

Funny thing, though, Canadians seem to vote for incumbent parties the closer they are to seats of power. Edmonton, for example, had big Liberal support in the last election (well, bigger than any other AB city). It is almost as though people say..."Things aren't so bad....please don't change it, we're just getting used to this devil..."

Of the 8 Edmonton ridings, the Liberals won only 2... Deputy PM McLellan by less than 800 votes, and longtime local favorite David Kilgour by less than 200 votes. In the 6 ridings contested by lesser Liberal candidates, the Conservative candidates won by large margins.

I'm not exactly sure how anybody could interpret those results as "big Liberal support". The two Liberal incumbents who held their seats did so in their usual cliffhanger style, but I'd interpret that as an endorsement of the candidate, not of the party. I can't imagine McLellan faring better at the polls next election than she did last time out. And as for Kilgour, I saw on the news tonight that he's considering crossing the floor (as he did earlier in his career over the GST.)

-kimmy

[The Terrible Sweal]

TS:

I think the next election outcome will be a Liberal majority. I don't think this election will be in the very near future. The government won't fall over the sponsorship scandal.

This is the common view on the Left and I find it surprising. I can only suspect that it stems from the abject terror of Harper becoming PM.

On a separate thread, BD said much the same. (As did even I.)

If the Left is downplaying this scandal, the media has certainly decided that it is "explosive".

The media would run with anything that they can parlay into viewer/readership.

I just can't see the fact that politicos were corrupt here changing the major voting imperatives at work in the country.

Today's big poll has two pieces of info: 9% drop for the Liberals (down to 25) on the question Who would you vote for today?

But 62% doon'tt want to vote until after the report comes out.

Why? Because they are keen to vote for the Torybastards? Hardly.

[Guest eureka]

I tend to agree with Sweal and Slavik, depending on just when an election is held. Time will be a huge factor and I suggest that Canadians, including Quebeckers, wukk see this in a better perspective for the not so great a deal as it is made out to be. It is petty compared to some in the past and far less important than the future of the country.

Political contribution process needs to be cleaned up - nothing more.

I think the Liberals will even pick up a couple of seats in Quebec even if a few "Sovereignists feel "insulted:" a funny term from a group that has lived a life of insulting the most civilized nation on earth.

[kimmy]

I tend to agree with Sweal and Slavik, depending on just when an election is held. Time will be a huge factor and I suggest that Canadians, including Quebeckers, wukk see this in a better perspective for the not so great a deal as it is made out to be. It is petty compared to some in the past and far less important than the future of the country.

...

I think the Liberals will even pick up a couple of seats in Quebec even if a few "Sovereignists feel "insulted:" a funny term from a group that has lived a life of insulting the most civilized nation on earth.

It's great that you guys can keep your senses of humour at a time like this. Never lose that.

Political contribution process needs to be cleaned up - nothing more.

you don't see the flagrant abuse of the contract awarding process as a rather major portion of this?

-kimmy

[I miss Reagan]

Kimmy you have much more faith in Canadian voters than I have. I think the latest poll results are because the initial shock and hype by the press. Slowly the Liberals will gain back the losses with the help of the media by demonizing the Conservatives.

[Michael Hardner]

Slowly the Liberals will gain back the losses with the help of the media by demonizing the Conservatives.

I disagree.

I think that Ontarians gave the Liberals one "LAST" chance last time, switching their votes at the last minute. I think Harper will be the next PM.

[I miss Reagan]

Slowly the Liberals will gain back the losses with the help of the media by demonizing the Conservatives.

I disagree.

I think that Ontarians gave the Liberals one "LAST" chance last time, switching their votes at the last minute. I think Harper will be the next PM.

Ya but you also have NDP voters who strategically vote to prevent the Conservatives from winning. It was just as obvious in the last election how corrupt the Liberals were then as it is now.

[Guest eureka]

No sense of humour required, Kimmy. I could make mincemeat of the "Conservatives" over this. Imagine what the whole Liberal Party can do - and of the Bloc.

I believe the Liberals will pick up a number of seats from the Bloc who, in my opinion, have shot their bolt.

The contract awarding has been going on for generations and it does need to be cleaned up. But, the Liberals can point to many of the past Conservative failings of the same kind.

They need to get on with some good policy initiatives and give this the small play that it really deserves. The public will not long remain angry over what is interms of what has gone on in the past and is a business as usual in many countries - including our closest neighbour where the amount that was actually diverted would make any self respecting senator feel cheap.

Let's drop the "holier=than-thou- and pur this into perspective Sir John A. must be laughing.

[kimmy]

I could make mincemeat of the "Conservatives" over this.

Then you should probably turn off your computer and call Mr. Martin ASAP. He desperately needs your help.

Imagine what the whole Liberal Party can do - and of the Bloc.

Imagine? We don't need to imagine. We saw last election what the Liberal Party can do, in its current incarnation. They turned what was assumed to be a majority government for Team Martin into a minority government and what appears to have been a near-defeat. And they've appeared directionless and ineffectual ever since, unable to manage public opinion or put up a facade of confidence on any issue, except briefly after the healthcare talks.

Imagine what the Liberal Party can do in their present circumstances? I'm sure their opponents are salivating just thinking about it.

I believe the Liberals will pick up a number of seats from the Bloc who, in my opinion, have shot their bolt.

I would agree that they have shot their last bolt; they've been handed a rocketlauncher, giftwrapped by Mr Chretien himself.

The contract awarding has been going on for generations and it does need to be cleaned up. But, the Liberals can point to many of the past Conservative failings of the same kind.

...

Let's drop the "holier=than-thou- and pur this into perspective Sir John A. must be laughing.

As people keep mentioning Mulroney did this or Sir John A did that, I keep finding myself reminded that both Mulroney and MacDonald were dumped unceremoniously from office.

-kimmy

[Guest eureka]

And now they have been given a focus and an oncentive to do something. The ineffectual part is media and political perception. They have not been so bad at all.

All this can be put into a proper perspective in a campaign.

[The Terrible Sweal]

As people keep mentioning Mulroney did this or Sir John A did that, I keep finding myself reminded that both Mulroney and MacDonald were dumped unceremoniously from office.

In Mulroney's case he slipped out and left a patsy to take the hit.

Will Martin be Chretien's patsy? We'll see, I guess.

[kimmy]

And now they have been given a focus and an oncentive to do something. The ineffectual part is media and political perception. They have not been so bad at all.

All this can be put into a proper perspective in a campaign.

You're saying the LPC just hasn't cared enough to fight their image problems since taking office?

You're saying they just didn't have the focus and incentive to do something in the last election?

...hmm.

My personal theory is that while you make the Liberal PR machine sound like the Mossad and the Third Army rolled into one, perhaps it's not invincible after all.

In Mulroney's case he slipped out and left a patsy to take the hit.

Will Martin be Chretien's patsy? We'll see, I guess.

We shall. You've mentioned a number of times that people have no reason to hold Martin personally responsible for the scandal, and I agree with that, but at the same time I don't think people held Kimmy Campbell personally responsible for the sins of the Mulroney government either.

-kimmy

{not campbell}