Shorting Bitcoin: A Neoclassical Bubble

[August1991]

This is tough to do although there are now future contracts on Bitcoin - but anyone who shorts will require nerves of steel and pockets/balls like George Soros shorting the UK pound. But the rewards!

1. Unlike shorting AIG, with Bitcoin, the Fed will not bail out anyone supposedly providing insurance against a fall in Bitcoin. 

2. Bitcoin? Make no mistake, this is a typical financial bubble. Since ordinary people discovered mathematics, numbers, prices - history has had several such bubbles.

3. The Berlin Wall fell in 1989. Deng Xsiao Ping took power in 1982. Ordinary Chinese are more slow to go crazy, unlike Albanians and Russians were. I suspect this bubble is driven by mainland wealthy Chinese who, for the first time, are discovering the market system.

4. IOW, Bitcoin reminds me of the Hongkong stock market on steroids.

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When this bubble collapses, it may have some effect on the Chinese economy and there may be an effect elsewhere through demand, but I doubt it. It depends how the Chinese authorities respond to the collapse. The psychological/political factor of confidence may be greater than any economic loss.

 

  

Edited December 13, 2017 by August1991

[Bonam]

I have about 2 bitcoins, which I've had for like 4 years. The price has run up high before (although of course previous highs were much lower) and come crashing down again, multiple times. I really don't foresee any major economic impact on large countries like China regardless of what bitcoin does. Blockchain technology (on which bitcoin is based) seems to be increasingly of interest to the financial industry and to governments and may make a big impact in the future, but bitcoin itself... I doubt it. 

[August1991]

13 minutes ago, Bonam said:

I have about 2 bitcoins, which I've had for like 4 years. The price has run up high before (although of course previous highs were much lower) and come crashing down again, multiple times. I really don't foresee any major economic impact on large countries like China regardless of what bitcoin does. Blockchain technology (on which bitcoin is based) seems to be increasingly of interest to the financial industry and to governments and may make a big impact in the future, but bitcoin itself... I doubt it. 

If I were you, I would sell your 2 bitcoins now - if you can, regardless of transaction cost into Cdn dollars.

Despite the instinct to time the market: Don't be greedy and wait to make more money.

As Woody Allen famously said, "Take the money and Run".

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Numbers, math, numbers, price, time: The first discovery of rich people in China, India is that you cannot "time the market".

God knows when this bubble will collapse.

 

[Bonam]

Yeah I've already sold some at varying price levels over the years. 

[?Impact]

It is very interesting that Bitcoin started as an alternative currency, but now is mainly viewed as an investment. 

[SpankyMcFarland]

It’s hard to make out what’s happening here. How long can a bubble last? There does seem to be a strong demand for cryptocurrencies out there. Whatever about bitcoin, blockchain might have a future in many fields including health care records. 

Edited December 13, 2017 by SpankyMcFarland

[Moonlight Graham]

I wouldn't short bitcoin, I wouldn't invest in it, I wouldn't touch it with a 10-ft pole..  It's too new, too speculative, too unpredictable.  It could be the future or it could come crashing down it's too hard to predict.  I would never gamble with my money like that.

You're better off finding something like Walmart at a good deal.

[August1991]

My first comment: Don't sell your house/borrow to buy bitcoin.

My second comment: When to sell? https://www.bloomberg.com/view/articles/2017-12-20/a-strategy-for-when-to-sell-bitcoin

 

 

[-TSS-]

A work-mate of mine wooed me to try bitcoin or not bitcoin but the virtual-currencies.

I'm on two minds about this. Either we are on the verge of a new era where virtual currencies will take over or we are witnessing a classic pyramid-scheme where people are attracted into a system in hope of big cash as the rates of the virtual currencies have shown insane growth-rates; something has become 10 times the original value in ridicously short time.

I think I'll try it with 100-200 euros at first.