CPC 2017: Bernier vs Alexander

[Smallc]

6 minutes ago, blueblood said:

That doesn't matter if there's hard evidence as Trudeau isn't in court.  

Often times perception is reality and as clearly shown in this day and age that's the case.  Trudeau better hope that he's insignificant enough for trump not to pay attention to him as it's perceived that Trudeau is openly supporting those who appear to be delegitimizing trumps presidency and that wouldn't fly in negotiations with that very person.

I don't see anyone else perceiving it that way.  

[blueblood]

1 minute ago, Derek 2.0 said:

Trudeau has peaked (granted a very high peak) by promising the Moon and won't be able to deliver on many of his promises....is he going to repromise to do all the stuff that that he didn't do? Trudeau, as I said, will have to campaign on his record and attempt maintain support..........if the economy is a dumpster fire in 2019, I doubt Trudeau will be gaining support.

If the liberals in Ontario can pull off election wins with their economy previously in a dumpster fire, Trudeau has a good shot at winning.

1 minute ago, Derek 2.0 said:

 

 

How so? I don't dispute O'Leary receives far more media coverage then Bernier, but how is he a better communicator? I'd be fine with Bernier debating an "ur--ummm---er" Trudeau in both French and English, defending his record and the economy........how will O'Leary sound against Trudeau in French?

We will have to see how olearys french lessons go.  The French debate is to hold ground.  O'Leary has a better chance of getting a kill shot in a debate, bernier tends to stumble.  trudeau will be able to handle bernier in a debate.

1 minute ago, Derek 2.0 said:

 

Apples to oranges........Try Romney versus Obama versus a Saunders. Three parties aside, the then US economy was "rebounding" and the Tories have nowhere near as many people insurgents within the party like the GOP has with the Tea Party........Don't get me wrong, I think O'Leary would have a very good shot and if he became the leader of the party I would support him, until then, on principle I support Max

The ndp typically has no chance of forming power and my analogy if Romney vs Obama stands.  The eastern economy is also rebounding at the moment.

berniers problem is the camera doesn't like him as much as O'Leary.  

[Derek 2.0]

Just now, blueblood said:

If the liberals in Ontario can pull off election wins with their economy previously in a dumpster fire, Trudeau has a good shot at winning.

Quote

 

Why is that? For instance, Trudeau's approval of the Kinder Morgan pipeline will very likely see traditional NDP and Tory seats plucked by Trudeau revert back to their traditional colors......are the Liberals going to keep the seats in the Western Provinces if the O&G market hasn't rebounded? With Southern Ontario posed to be bent over by the Trump administration, do you think voters there will vote for him again?

 

Unlike the Ontario PCs and NDP, I don't expect the Federal parties will select such bad leaders.......

 

6 minutes ago, blueblood said:

We will have to see how olearys french lessons go.  The French debate is to hold ground.  O'Leary has a better chance of getting a kill shot in a debate, bernier tends to stumble.  trudeau will be able to handle bernier in a debate.

Quote

 

That's pure speculation.........How will Trudeau "handle" any leader if our economy is in shambles? The French debate isn't to "hold ground", but to not cede the entire Province to the Liberals.......Harper won without Quebec, but that doesn't mean that should be the Tories strategy, nor to count on a strong NDP.

 

10 minutes ago, blueblood said:

The ndp typically has no chance of forming power and my analogy if Romney vs Obama stands.  

 

It doesn't stand, if Canada were suddenly a two party country, where do you think the NDP vote would go? Inversely, if Obama in 2012 lost ~15-20% of his vote share to an American NDP, do you think Obama still would have won?

 

13 minutes ago, blueblood said:

The eastern economy is also rebounding at the moment.

 

 

So?

 

14 minutes ago, blueblood said:

berniers problem is the camera doesn't like him as much as O'Leary.  

 

And that's exactly my point......how much money, and from what parts of the country, has O'Leary raised versus Bernier?

[blueblood]

18 minutes ago, Derek 2.0 said:

 

Why is that? For instance, Trudeau's approval of the Kinder Morgan pipeline will very likely see traditional NDP and Tory seats plucked by Trudeau revert back to their traditional colors......are the Liberals going to keep the seats in the Western Provinces if the O&G market hasn't rebounded? With Southern Ontario posed to be bent over by the Trump administration, do you think voters there will vote for him again?

The liberals didn't win much for extra seats in the prairies except for Winnipeg and edmnonton.  Those are toss ups even in the best of times.  Winnipeg doesn't need the oil and gas sector.  Voters in southern Ontario confuse me, they voted provincial liberals in the regular and vote a lot for federal liberals no matter what.

18 minutes ago, Derek 2.0 said:

 

Unlike the Ontario PCs and NDP, I don't expect the Federal parties will select such bad leaders.......

Ndp will get a leader, unfortunately will be boring as he/she won't have the jack Layton touch for some time.  Andrew scheer and bernier are competent but don't have the media chops.  Scheer and bernier will cannabilize each other.

18 minutes ago, Derek 2.0 said:

 

 

That's pure speculation.........How will Trudeau "handle" any leader if our economy is in shambles? The French debate isn't to "hold ground", but to not cede the entire Province to the Liberals.......Harper won without Quebec, but that doesn't mean that should be the Tories strategy, nor to count on a strong NDP.

The Tory leaders typically don't connect with Quebec voters and bernier will be no different.  Bernier isn't doing very much campaigning.  Going with an uncharismatic leader will be what Trudeau wants and bernier is just another policy wonk.

18 minutes ago, Derek 2.0 said:

 

 

It doesn't stand, if Canada were suddenly a two party country, where do you think the NDP vote would go? Inversely, if Obama in 2012 lost ~15-20% of his vote share to an American NDP, do you think Obama still would have won?

The ndp will be a non factor in this election as Trudeau is the best chance to stop the Tories.  The left learned that lesson in 2011.

18 minutes ago, Derek 2.0 said:

 

 

So?

 

 

And that's exactly my point......how much money, and from what parts of the country, has O'Leary raised versus Bernier?

How many twitter followers does bernier have vs O'Leary?  It's silly but O'Leary has spent the better part of a decade getting his name out there and Bernier is watching things pass by.

[overthere]

Quote

Trudeau's approval of the Kinder Morgan pipeline will very likely see traditional NDP and Tory seats plucked by Trudeau revert back to their traditional colors......

No, not really.  That pipeline won't be built, and Trudeau knows it.  It is why he approved it, he certainly does not support it in any way other than the pretence required to retain political capital.  All that is required to end the project is introduce more and more delay.   KM has what- 150+ conditions and every one is a potential  dealbreaker. He could not employ that strategy on Northern Gateway so his actions there had to be much more overt, thus revealing his hand.  He  is taking the delay delay delay tactic with Energy East, which has not unsurprisingly gone from active NEB public hearings to  'completely disappeared'.  KM won't happen.  The only one that might fly is Line 3, which is basically a maintenance project.

 If Trudeau does nothing to end or limit court challenges and bloodshed on the KM  right of way- both of which are planned and will happen-  Kinder Morgan will just end wioth a whimper sooner rather than later, as KM will simply  take their investment money to another country,  There are countless other oil exporters- all other oil exporters- that would welcome a few billion c/w jobs and tax revenue.  But Golly, Justin did his darndest now, didn't he?

[Smallc]

18 minutes ago, overthere said:

No, not really.  That pipeline won't be built, and Trudeau knows it.  It is why he approved it, he certainly does not support it in any way other than the pretence required to retain political capital. 

Ohh, harsh analysis.  Now how about some backing for those opinions?

[Charles Anthony]

Folks, 

How about avoiding thread drift? 

Thanks!

[The_Squid]

20 hours ago, Derek 2.0 said:

How will Trudeau "handle" any leader if our economy is in shambles?

Praying for the economy to tank is unpatriotic.  Why do you hate your own country?

It's pretty sad to be such a partisan that you would rather your country's economy tank than have a Liberal government.

Edited January 23, 2017 by The_Squid

[Derek 2.0]

3 hours ago, The_Squid said:

Praying for the economy to tank is unpatriotic.  Why do you hate your own country?

It's pretty sad to be such a partisan that you would rather your country's economy tank than have a Liberal government.

 

Where did I "pray" for the economy to tank? 

 

Big difference between believing that it will, in part due to the economic policies of this government and circumstances it has little to no control of, and hoping that it does.

 

23 hours ago, blueblood said:

The liberals didn't win much for extra seats in the prairies except for Winnipeg and edmnonton.

Sure, and those few seats combined with those in Metro Vancouver could very well be the difference in forming a Majority/Minority government or a change in government.

 

23 hours ago, blueblood said:

The Tory leaders typically don't connect with Quebec voters and bernier will be no different.  Bernier isn't doing very much campaigning.  Going with an uncharismatic leader will be what Trudeau wants and bernier is just another policy wonk.

Quote

 

And is why I suggested last Summer that O'Leary would be the most ideal leader.......with that said, poor economic performance and classic Liberal scandals could make a Bernier electable (see Harper)

 

On 1/22/2017 at 5:23 PM, blueblood said:

How many twitter followers does bernier have vs O'Leary?

 

A better question, how many of said Twitter followers will be voting in the leadership race? Bernier, based on donations, has support among Conservatives across Canada.....Where is O'Leary's support concentrated?

[blueblood]

16 minutes ago, Derek 2.0 said:

 

Where did I "pray" for the economy to tank? 

 

Big difference between believing that it will, in part due to the economic policies of this government and circumstances it has little to no control of, and hoping that it does.

 

Sure, and those few seats combined with those in Metro Vancouver could very well be the difference in forming a Majority/Minority government or a change in government.

 

 

And is why I suggested last Summer that O'Leary would be the most ideal leader.......with that said, poor economic performance and classic Liberal scandals could make a Bernier electable (see Harper)

 

 

A better question, how many of said Twitter followers will be voting in the leadership race? Bernier, based on donations, has support among Conservatives across Canada.....Where is O'Leary's support concentrated?

That support will erode as Tories will go with the trend is my friend. Bernier has no momentum and O'Leary has it.  The twitter followers are voters in the federal election and the long game is needed.  

Trudeaus scandals are minor in the eyes of the media and he is still the media darling.  It's an election of celebrity vs celebrity and bernier doesn't have the chops.  The boring Harper has been tried against other candidates and won't do this time.

donations won't matter when the tide rolls in and the donors back O'Leary.

[Derek 2.0]

52 minutes ago, blueblood said:

Bernier has no momentum and O'Leary has it.

 

Is that the case though? We're but ~three months away, and by no means does O'Leary have a lock on the leadership..........O'Leary has no policy proposals other then to "grow the economy and reduce unemployment".......Trump has more substance.

 

Like I said, I wouldn't discount O'Leary (and there is a very good chance his fame and media presence could be enough), but as I said, I don't intend to vote for him.......if he wins the leadership I won't take my ball and go home (I'd prefer O'Leary to many of the other also rans anyways), but on principle and policy I'm going with "Mad Max".

[blueblood]

18 minutes ago, Derek 2.0 said:

 

Is that the case though? We're but ~three months away, and by no means does O'Leary have a lock on the leadership..........O'Leary has no policy proposals other then to "grow the economy and reduce unemployment".......Trump has more substance.

Olearys policy is slashing regulations, slashing taxes and letting the market work to make us competitive with the USA.  O'Leary won't touch marihuana, immigration, and abortion.  Sounds like policy to me.

18 minutes ago, Derek 2.0 said:

 

Like I said, I wouldn't discount O'Leary (and there is a very good chance his fame and media presence could be enough), but as I said, I don't intend to vote for him.......if he wins the leadership I won't take my ball and go home (I'd prefer O'Leary to many of the other also rans anyways), but on principle and policy I'm going with "Mad Max".

Do you honestly think that mad max has the moxy to beat Trudeau.  Trudeau will be getting a lot of free passes and can work the camera which Tories except for O'Leary have a problem with.

[Derek 2.0]

1 hour ago, blueblood said:

Olearys policy is slashing regulations, slashing taxes and letting the market work to make us competitive with the USA.  O'Leary won't touch marihuana, immigration, and abortion.  Sounds like policy to me.

 

What regulations? Which taxes and to what level? How does one "let the market work?" That sounds an awful lot like Bernier's proposals, absent the meat and potatoes.....

1 hour ago, blueblood said:

Do you honestly think that mad max has the moxy to beat Trudeau.

 

That depends where the country is at in 2019........if the economy is doing better than expected and/or Trump has been a complete failure down South, fluffy populists like Trudeau and O'Leary (and Trump of course) that offer nothing more than slogans and  sales pitches could end up being the exact opposite as to what the voting public wants......inversely, a near Free Market Libertarian like Mad Max, absent the socially conservative and anti immigrant baggage, that has concrete policies to right the economy and cut the excess the Trudeau government has dumped on taxpayers, could be the answer.............

Like I said, if O'Leary wins the leadership, I'll support him.........but until he puts out something of worth, not huckster slogans and soundbites, I won't support him in his bid for the leadership.   

[blueblood]

On 2017-01-23 at 11:16 PM, Derek 2.0 said:

 

What regulations? Which taxes and to what level? How does one "let the market work?" That sounds an awful lot like Bernier's proposals, absent the meat and potatoes.....

 

That depends where the country is at in 2019........if the economy is doing better than expected and/or Trump has been a complete failure down South, fluffy populists like Trudeau and O'Leary (and Trump of course) that offer nothing more than slogans and  sales pitches could end up being the exact opposite as to what the voting public wants......inversely, a near Free Market Libertarian like Mad Max, absent the socially conservative and anti immigrant baggage, that has concrete policies to right the economy and cut the excess the Trudeau government has dumped on taxpayers, could be the answer.............

Like I said, if O'Leary wins the leadership, I'll support him.........but until he puts out something of worth, not huckster slogans and soundbites, I won't support him in his bid for the leadership.   

https://www.google.ca/amp/s/www.thestar.com/amp/news/canada/2017/01/24/oleary-leads-as-tories-gain-ground-on-liberals-new-poll-shows.html?client=safari

doesnt look good for bernier and looks good for me wonderful...

[Derek 2.0]

1 minute ago, blueblood said:

https://www.google.ca/amp/s/www.thestar.com/amp/news/canada/2017/01/24/oleary-leads-as-tories-gain-ground-on-liberals-new-poll-shows.html?client=safari

doesnt look good for bernier and looks good for me wonderful...

 

You consider a poll with a resulting Liberal Majority as "looking good" for O'Leary? 

[blueblood]

Just now, Derek 2.0 said:

 

You consider a poll with a resulting Liberal Majority as "looking good" for O'Leary? 

I'm looking at the Tory leadership race part of it.  O'Leary has a commanding lead among the party rank and file

[Derek 2.0]

Just now, blueblood said:

I'm looking at the Tory leadership race part of it.  O'Leary has a commanding lead among the party rank and file

 

From your link:

Quote

O’Leary, the celebrity businessman who entered the Tory leadership race last week after months of signalling a potential campaign, is the top choice to lead the party for 27 per cent of poll respondents. 

 

Quote

At the same time, 38 per cent of respondents still preferred “someone else” to any of the current Conservative leadership candidates, the poll found. That’s down from 53 per cent who wanted someone else when asked in December.

 

Quote

O’Leary also placed first in support from Conservative party members, with 31 per cent. That was more than double the support for Lisa Raitt — 14 per cent — who placed second among members that were polled.

 

In other words, of those polled, more people would rather "someone else" than O'Leary, and of actual party members (including myself) slightly more than 2/3rds support someone other than O'Leary.........and if the election were held today, Trudeau would return with a smaller majority.......I guess "commanding lead" is subjective.

[blueblood]

19 minutes ago, Derek 2.0 said:

 

From your link:

 

 

 

In other words, of those polled, more people would rather "someone else" than O'Leary, and of actual party members (including myself) slightly more than 2/3rds support someone other than O'Leary.........and if the election were held today, Trudeau would return with a smaller majority.......I guess "commanding lead" is subjective.

And a lot more than 2/3 oppose mad max, leitch, rarity, etc.

[Derek 2.0]

1 minute ago, blueblood said:

And a lot more than 2/3 oppose mad max, leitch, rarity, etc.

 

Sure, and I didn't say different, nor suggest anyone within the field has a "commanding lead" with less that a 3rd of the voting party members in their camp.........

[Argus]

On 1/22/2017 at 7:55 PM, Derek 2.0 said:

Why is that? 

Half the working population of Canada pays little or no income tax. They have no incentive to care that government spending is high, and every reason to fear an incoming conservative administration which will slash spending. We saw that very scenario in the last Ontario election. You had a putrid, miserably incompetent government which had shredded the province's economy triumph over the conservatives largely because people were afraid the conservatives would be mean - ie, would cut spending. These people didn't want spending cut, they wanted it increased. Notice that Trudeau shot ahead in the last election by promising to spend more money? When you have half the voters knowing that money is coming from someone else, and that they're likely to be the recipients of some of it, they're going to keep voting Liberal.

[Argus]

To be fair, anyone on the list would fail to Trudeau at this point in time. You need a few years for the economy to deteriorate and the deficit to grow to have any chance.

Edited January 26, 2017 by Argus

[Derek 2.0]

6 hours ago, Argus said:

To be fair, anyone on the list would fail to Trudeau at this point in time. You need a few years for the economy to deteriorate and the deficit to grow to have any chance.

 

The Globe's  JOHN IBBITSON  sums up my views on the leadership to a tee........What would Harper do? Of all those running, Ibbitson figures Harper would choose only three:

 

 

Quote

 

That leaves three that Mr. Harper might prefer. Beauce MP Maxime Bernier is one of them. The former foreign affairs minister has been raising impressive amounts of money, has half a dozen MPs backing him and is popular in the West as well as Quebec. Mr. Harper fired him from cabinet and later brought him back in a more junior role, because he thought Mr. Bernier lacked seriousness of purpose. This campaign is Mr. Bernier’s opportunity to refute that allegation.

 

Durham MP Erin O’Toole performed surprisingly well in the French-language debate, has an attractive résumé (the former veterans affairs minister was an Air Force captain who became a corporate lawyer) and is backed by 16 MPs. The biggest strike against him is that he isn’t well-known outside the party.

 

Former House speaker Andrew Scheer has the most support in caucus: The Regina MP is backed by 24 of his colleagues and is one of the strongest contenders. However, his socially conservative disposition would not sit well with Mr. Harper, who always worried about letting the party be captured by the “God, guns and gays” crowd.

 

 

 

I like all three, but as I've said in previous threads, in my opinion, O'Toole is too nice.........With Scheer, some might consider him too "young", but his age could be a benefit if we're to assume knocking off Trudeau will take two elections.......Hence my picks will/would be Bernier-Scheer-O'Toole 

[blueblood]

6 minutes ago, Derek 2.0 said:

 

The Globe's  JOHN IBBITSON  sums up my views on the leadership to a tee........What would Harper do? Of all those running, Ibbitson figures Harper would choose only three:

 

 

 

I like all three, but as I've said in previous threads, in my opinion, O'Toole is too nice.........With Scheer, some might consider him too "young", but his age could be a benefit if we're to assume knocking off Trudeau will take two elections.......Hence my picks will/would be Bernier-Scheer-O'Toole 

Maybe the three of them combined will have as much influence as O'Leary...

[Newfoundlander]

Personally I couldn't give two F***s who Harper would vote for. The man is gone and it's time for the party to move on. Whoever becomes leader is going to have to figure out their own winning coalition in order to succeed.

[Derek 2.0]

1 minute ago, blueblood said:

Maybe the three of them combined will have as much influence as O'Leary...

You're sure putting a whole bunch of weight on one flaky poll......said poll is is best summed up here

 

Quote

 

Let me remind you, this is a poll of Canadians. So, leaving aside the usual issues of uncertainty about polls, you might ask yourself (or the reporter and editors at the Star might have asked themselves): Do all Canadians get to vote?

 

Well, no — they don’t. Nevertheless (you might say), about a third of the respondents in Forum’s poll were Conservative supporters. So that’s better, right?

 

Not much, actually. It isn’t Conservative supporters — more than five and a half million of whom voted in the last election — who get to vote in this leadership race. It’s Conservative party members, and there are much fewer of them. When Stephen Harper won the Conservative leadership in 2004, about 90,000 people voted.

 

Rather improbably, the Forum poll claims to have sampled 111 actual party members (out of a total of just over 1,300 respondents). To get that many was either fabulous good luck or the result of some methodological witchery of which Forum is revealing nothing.