What direction the Conservatives Should Take

[BC_chick]

Politics is a lot like the markets in that timing is just as important as how well you actually play the game. None of the good candidates ran for LPC after Martin because they knew it was the Liberals' turn to sit out (they just didn't anticipate how badly Iggy would blow it).

Right now any decent CPC member would be smart to let the Trudeau mania to run its course before embarrassing themselves. I'm pretty sure that's why Ambrose took the interim role Too saying she's not interested in leading permanently.

The CPC will put out a couple of fodder candidates but the next Harper isn't anywhere in sight yet. That's just my take.

Edited June 5, 2016 by BC_chick

[Derek 2.0]

They need more than a dozen but if you start by deducting a dozen you need even more.

You're the one assuming they would loose their seats in Quebec because O'Leary doesn't speak French......I don't think it would mater, and they could very well loose them by selecting what the media portrays as another Harper......like Jason Kenney.

Kenney is not Harper. He is more likeable, more agreeable, performs better in front of the cameras and has a history of being more willing to cooperate and talk with opponents. He's one of the few ministers who would regularly appear for interviews with the networks, probably because Harper trusted him to do well and not get suckered. I like Rempel, but I don't think she has the experience yet.

I've met Kenney at two conventions, I have nothing against the guy, but any that can be portrayed as inner circle Harper won't win in 2019, and could very likely loose seats.........

Rempel currently has more experience in Government then both Trudeau and even Harper when they won their party leadership......... with that said, experience maters little in retail politics......look at our current snow board instructor Prime Minister.......

With Rempel, her drawbacks are more internal politics found within the party...........she might be able to beat a Trudeau, I just don't know that she could win enough support to win the CPC leadership.

[Icebound]

Here is a list of spending by country. You'll note that while some countries spend more, nobody spends a great deal more (other than the US) and many spend less. We spend more than France, for example, though from all I've read France's health care system is miles better than ours.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_total_health_expenditure_per_capita

Could that be because they pay their doctors less, and yet they have way more of them per capita than do Canadians?

Places with ONLY 324 doctors per 100,000 are deemed "medical deserts" in France....

http://www.connexionfrance.com/statistics-reveal-truth-on-shortage-of-french-doctors-11594-news-article.html

...whereas Canada's national average is 224 .... https://www.cma.ca/Assets/assets-library/document/en/advocacy/12-Phys_per_pop.pdf

The POOREST area of France has more than 224.

And why would that be? Is it because France has a much more "liberally funded" education system, making it easier for students to get post-secondary education?

Investment in the future. Could we do that in Canada?.... Oh, wait.... it would mean INCREASED TAXES!!!

... and even that might not help because Doctors could still claim poor and threaten relocation by comparing themselves to that bastion of health care to the south.

Also, could it be that France does a much better job of regulating pharmaceuticals than we do in North America.....??

...

[Derek 2.0]

The other candidates in the race are making a big deal about it, let alone the media bringing it up.

Of course they are, O'Leary, a newcomer to the party, is blowing the other established candidates out of the water in polling..........that is one of the few avenues of attack against a Kevin O'Leary from within the CPC........the other, would be the media painting him as a Trump, which is further from the truth........as O'Leary has already noted, the only thing they really have in common is that both their shows were created by the same guy.

[Derek 2.0]

Politics is a lot like the markets in that timing is just as important as how well you actually play the game. None of the good candidates ran for LPC after Martin because they knew it was the Liberals' turn to sit out (they just didn't anticipate how badly Iggy would blow it).

Right now any decent CPC member would be smart to let the Trudeau mania to run its course before embarrassing themselves. I'm pretty sure that's why Ambrose took the interim role Too saying she's not interested in leading permanently.

The CPC will put out a couple of fodder candidates but the next Harper isn't anywhere in sight yet. That's just my take.

I agree to some degree, but remember, Harper needed two elections to form Government.......that could very well play out against Trudeau, in which the Tories would need to gain ground and put him into a minority Government first, then form government in a follow-up election.

Edited June 5, 2016 by Derek 2.0

[overthere]

I agree to some degree, but remember, Harper needed two elections to form Government.......that could very well play out against Trudeau, in which the Tories would need to gain ground and put him into a minority Government first, then form government in a follow-up election.

All of which is impossible, with the ranked ballots we will shortly see as law.

The Tories could run Ghandhi as leader and would still lose.

[overthere]

Could that be because they pay their doctors less, and yet they have way more of them per capita than do Canadians?

A big reason is that there is much less frivolous timewasting by patients in the French system. A visit to your GP in FRance requires a user payment of 15 or 20 Euros. The state covers the rest of the medical cost.. If you are truly and demonstrably poor, the user fee is covered by the state. The net result is that there is much better use of Physician resources, so the system can afford more..... physicians that attend to actual sickness. GPs do not have to be babysitters for hypochondriacs, nor are they amateur psychiatrists as they do for the needy and lonely that crowd Canadian waiting rooms to have a conversation with a sympathetic ear. Of course, in Canada, any suggestion whatsoever of 'user pay' schemes result in howls of outrage by the ironically named 'Friends Of Medicare' crowd, and immediate harsh penalties from the federal govt to the offending province. The problem in Canad is not a health management problem, it is-as always- political. We are overall very, very poor managers of our own economic welfare.

[Derek 2.0]

All of which is impossible, with the ranked ballots we will shortly see as law.

The Tories could run Ghandhi as leader and would still lose.

I'm not worried, and didn't get the sense at the Vancouver convention, that its something to worry about........it might simply be an ostrich with head in the sand, but from my understanding, absent a referendum, its doesn't have a hope in hell of getting through the Senate, being blocked by not only Tories, but also some of those "former Liberal senators"...............I think this is evident by the Liberals slowly walking back the committee composition, and making noises that FPTP and a referendum are now on the table............

But going back to O'Leary, an idea spit-balled by him for "voter engagement" at the convention is any official petition with something like over 50k signatures, would result in a national online referendum............that proposal, playing upon populism and voter engagement, would do far more to wet the craving for voting reform and put the Tories miles ahead of the other parties............

[Icebound]

Because Bill C-210 was so trivial and obvious, I had not been following it.

I did not realize that 79 Conservatives could not bring themselves to agree to a simple 2-word change to the National Anthem, which would make it gender-neutral without altering the music, the feeling, the meaning, or anything else.

By what logic? I would submit that is is, again, one of those directions that they don't want to take.

Anyway, glad to see Peter Kent voted in favor and a handful of others.

Edited June 5, 2016 by Icebound

[eyeball]

Harper moved the party to the center. That is how he gained a majority. Park the old boogeyman meme, it just doesn't work any more.

What boogeyman meme is that? I want hard right parties, the harder the better...so the sooner society will realize what doesn't work.

[Argus]

You're the one assuming they would loose their seats in Quebec because O'Leary doesn't speak French......I don't think it would mater.

Come on. They'll perceive it as a snub to them. Of course it will matter.

they could very well loose them by selecting what the media portrays as another Harper......like Jason Kenney.

The media will not be able to portray him as another Harper if he has some significantly different policies and his approach to ruling is different. Besides, my impression is the media kind of liked him.

Rempel currently has more experience in Government then both Trudeau and even Harper when they won their party leadership...

Trudeau had the Trudeau name, and a vast dislike of Harper going for him. Even that almost wasn't enough until the NDP self-destructed over bed sheets.

Harper had a lot of experience in various parts of politics, as an MP, as a backroom operator and a lobbyist. I don't think Rempel has any of that, and she's not as smooth in front of the cameras as Kenney.

[Argus]

Could that be because they pay their doctors less, and yet they have way more of them per capita than do Canadians?

Places with ONLY 324 doctors per 100,000 are deemed "medical deserts" in France....

http://www.connexionfrance.com/statistics-reveal-truth-on-shortage-of-french-doctors-11594-news-article.html

...whereas Canada's national average is 224 .... https://www.cma.ca/Assets/assets-library/document/en/advocacy/12-Phys_per_pop.pdf

The POOREST area of France has more than 224.

There could be a lot of reasons. The point is that we pay a lot, and not just to doctors, but don't get results as good as others. Someone ought to be finding out why and remedying the situation. But we haven't seen any interest in it by the present Liberal government or the previous Conservative government.

https://www.thestar.com/opinion/editorialopinion/2012/05/02/paying_doctors_and_wait_times_how_does_canada_compare.html

[Derek 2.0]

Come on. They'll perceive it as a snub to them. Of course it will matter.

No, it won't.......Southern Ontario and Metro Vancouver mater.

The media will not be able to portray him as another Harper if he has some significantly different policies and his approach to ruling is different. Besides, my impression is the media kind of liked him.

They will with ease, and Kenney isn't electable.

Harper had a lot of experience in various parts of politics, as an MP, as a backroom operator and a lobbyist. I don't think Rempel has any of that, and she's not as smooth in front of the cameras as Kenney.

Kenney doesn't have a hope in hell against Trudeau............

[Argus]

Kenney doesn't have a hope in hell against Trudeau............

Realistically, nobody has a hope in hell against Trudeau right now. Canadians are pretty tolerant of bad government. It has to go on for a while before they dump it. Witness the Ontario Liberals, or the Alberta Conservatives. Hell, witness Trudeau's father. Given his personable nature and looks, if the Liberals don't screw up so badly people can't ignore it he'll win again next time against almost anyone. Especially since the media loves him and the NDP are likely to be weak.

[Derek 2.0]

Realistically, nobody has a hope in hell against Trudeau right now. Canadians are pretty tolerant of bad government. It has to go on for a while before they dump it. Witness the Ontario Liberals, or the Alberta Conservatives. Hell, witness Trudeau's father. Given his personable nature and looks, if the Liberals don't screw up so badly people can't ignore it he'll win again next time against almost anyone. Especially since the media loves him and the NDP are likely to be weak.

I largely agree, and feel (absent a Trudeau implosion), anyone easily associated with the Harper inner circle is toast..........likewise, any outsiders that are unable to connect with Canadians without appearing robotic........to my mind, that leaves Kevin O'Leary......maybe Brad Wall.....some yet unknown outsider???/

Jason Kenney would be in tough to even win the CPC race, let alone winning against Trudeau.

[-1=e^ipi]

What proportional system? Our current system aside, regardless of how Canadians vote, for political parties, the objective is to receive the most votes possible.

No. The objective is to form government.

Let's take 2 scenarios:

1. Unified Conservative party gets 45% of the vote since it doesn't alienate Social Conservatives, doesn't form government.

2. Moderate Conservative party gets 40% of the vote, Christian Heritage party gets 15% of the vote. The Moderate Conservative party gets to form government despite getting less vote share due to alienating Social Conservatives.

I could construct any number of scenarios and you can replace the parties with whatever you want. But under a proportional system, it makes more sense for parties to split into multiple parties in order to maximize the vote share.

Like take the Democrats in the USA. Many Sanders supporters won't vote Clinton and many Clinton supporters won't vote Sanders. But if they had a proportional system then the Democratic party could split into 2 parties, and the Sanders supporters would vote for the Sanders' party while the Clinton supporters would vote for the Clinton party. No one would be alienated so you would get a larger vote share.

[overthere]

I'm not worried, and didn't get the sense at the Vancouver convention, that its something to worry about........it might simply be an ostrich with head in the sand, but from my understanding, absent a referendum, its doesn't have a hope in hell of getting through the Senate, being blocked by not only Tories, but also some of those "former Liberal senators"...............I think this is evident by the Liberals slowly walking back the committee composition, and making noises that FPTP and a referendum are now on the table............

But going back to O'Leary, an idea spit-balled by him for "voter engagement" at the convention is any official petition with something like over 50k signatures, would result in a national online referendum............that proposal, playing upon populism and voter engagement, would do far more to wet the craving for voting reform and put the Tories miles ahead of the other parties............

The Senate will not be any problem at all pretty soon. Trudeau has appointed a committee of Liberal sympathizers to approve a whole crew of "not Liberals" who will always vote Liberal. Between those and the'not Liberal Liberals' already there, he has an easy majority in the Senate. I used to think the Senate was a stumbling block, but it will not be. Trudeau had to sort that out, or he'd get nothing passed, not just his wet dream of ranked ballots.

But he was not expecting the fairly visceral and widespread reaction to the 'no referendum' movement. It must have been a terrible shock to realize that he could not simply rule by decree, even with a majority. Ever once in a blue moon, the sheep do indeed look up.

Of course, there is a Plan B, and the recompostion of the electoral reform party is part of it. I suspect they have struck a deal with the NDP to get support for ranked ballots. The NDP are in a death spiral, and they make out not too bad with a ranked ballots option. They are simply not going to get their preferred option of proportional representation, because the Liberals will certainly go to the next election with FPTP rather than even consider any form of proprep- it is bad news all around proprep for the Libs- very hard to get the majorities that are their natural destiny.

The NDP know they are leaderless, rudderless and now adrift after the last election and last convention. They also know that another elction with FPTP could be much worse for them. So, no proprep, no FPTP and that leaves them with.... ranked ballots. The question that has no public answer yet: what is Trudeau giving them for their committee and Commons support?

Why does that matter to the Liberals, who have a majority and can essentially do what they want with electoral reform, or more accurately can pass ranked ballots with or without any Commons support from other parties? Because Trudeau can then bypass a referendum, because he can claim that he has enough consensus, enough consultation, and the support of another major party.

[Derek 2.0]

No. The objective is to form government.

And how do they form Government? By winning the most ridings, from receiving the most votes in said riding.

I could construct any number of scenarios and you can replace the parties with whatever you want.

I'm sure you could, and it would be as topical to the conversation as the Tories views on Martians ........in other words, electoral reform/changing how we vote is unlikely going into the 2019 election.

[overthere]

What boogeyman meme is that? I want hard right parties, the harder the better...so the sooner society will realize what doesn't work.

Your repeated and incorrect assertion that Harper moved the party, the country to the right. That boogeyman, the same one that was beaten to death for years from the moment the Con Party was formed. He could not have won a majority by doing so. You'll have to come up with somebody new to hate irrationally.

Maybe put a tooth under your pillow, all your wishes will come true and you might get a (devalued) loonie too.

[-1=e^ipi]

The problem is O'Leary doesn't speak a word of French and has already said he sucks at learning a second language. That will not only cost them heavily in Quebec, which still has the most seats in Canada outside Ontario, but will hurt them as the media plays up the theme about how a unilingual PM will be divisive and be a bonus for separatism.

On the other hand, Trudeau declared in an interview before being elected that the problem with Canada is that Albertans are in government, Canada belongs to Quebec and that if Albertans continue to stay in power he would support separation of Quebec. And today due to all the hostile anti-Alberta policies federally, Alberta separatism has increased greatly.

Realistically, the best option is for O'Leary to run as deputy PM and partner with someone who can speak french. Maxime Bernier doesn't have the best English, maybe they could partner and Bernier does the French debates while O'Leary does the English debates.

[capricorn]

At this particular time, everyone is unelectable over Trudeau. He's got the millenials wrapped around his little finger and they're too much of airheads to take politics seriously. Women well, they're still swooning over him and busy copying Sophie's fashions to make rational political decisions. Maybe around 2023 he'll get defeated, unless he gets fed up with the job beforehand. Kenney, as likable as he is, looks too much like the dough boy and should get out of politics. He sure doesn't inspire me. My womanly instincts tell me that Maxime Bernier would give Trudeau a run for his money. He's easy on the eyes, got a bad boy image (his one time biker chick), lots of political experience, and he is a Quebecer.

[-1=e^ipi]

I'm sure you could, and it would be as topical to the conversation as the Tories views on Martians ........in other words, electoral reform/changing how we vote is unlikely going into the 2019 election.

You realize that the Trudeau government has declared that 2019 will not be a FPTP election, right?

[Derek 2.0]

The Senate will not be any problem at all pretty soon. Trudeau has appointed a committee of Liberal sympathizers to approve a whole crew of "not Liberals" who will always vote Liberal. Between those and the'not Liberal Liberals' already there, he has an easy majority in the Senate. I used to think the Senate was a stumbling block, but it will not be. Trudeau had to sort that out, or he'd get nothing passed, not just his wet dream of ranked ballots.

I understand that, but from what I've been made to understand, enough "former Liberal Senators" would side with the Tories to block wholesale changes carte blanche

Of course, there is a Plan B, and the recompostion of the electoral reform party is part of it. I suspect they have struck a deal with the NDP to get support for ranked ballots. The NDP are in a death spiral, and they make out not too bad with a ranked ballots option. They are simply not going to get their preferred option of proportional representation, because the Liberals will certainly go to the next election with FPTP rather than even consider any form of proprep- it is bad news all around proprep for the Libs- very hard to get the majorities that are their natural destiny.

That makes no sense, the NDP are reverting to old levels of support months after a federal election, with a lame duck leader..........I wouldn't expect them to be gaining or even holding ground on the current Government.

The NDP know they are leaderless, rudderless and now adrift after the last election and last convention. They also know that another elction with FPTP could be much worse for them. So, no proprep, no FPTP and that leaves them with.... ranked ballots. The question that has no public answer yet: what is Trudeau giving them for their committee and Commons support?

And that says it all........the NDP are leaderless/rudderless etc........until they're not...........

Trudeau has nothing to offer them, and they have nothing to gain.........ranked ballots could very well torpedo the NDP in favor of the Greens.

------------

This is why I hold little concern, at this point in time, over electoral reform........and think O'Leary's suggestion of online referendums for major hot button issues could supersede prior avenues of electoral reform by the Liberals/NDP/Green........at the end of the day, O'Leary seeks to address voter empowerment by selling voter engagement in the political process via the Amazon or Ebay method.........from the comfort of home and a click of a mouse.

[Derek 2.0]

You realize that the Trudeau government has declared that 2019 will not be a FPTP election, right?

You realize they just walked back their opposition to FPTP and a national referendum right? I don't expect Trudeau to ram through anything, anymore than I expect his budgets to balance themselves.

Lip service to electoral reform and voter engagement is easily paid by the Tories (going forward) through a national referendum...........and isn't something seen as a major hurdle in the direction of the party.

[-1=e^ipi]

You realize they just walked back their opposition to FPTP and a national referendum right? I don't expect Trudeau to ram through anything, anymore than I expect his budgets to balance themselves.

No, I do not. Please provide a link.