Liberal deficit set at 18.4 billion

Smallc · February 23, 2016

Tell that to Greece or Argentina. Canada is not like the US or the EU. If it piles up too much debt it has to issue bonds in USD or other foreign currencies.

That isn't a given anymore - but we'd be decades from something like that (not to mention all of the other vehicles we could use before ever getting to such a point).

Shady · February 23, 2016

This is before 90% of Liberal spending measures - this is with Harpers current plan and only the things the Liberals have done so far. That's mostly the tax changes and the addition of 25,000 more refugees.

Lol. Yes, it's Harper's fault that Justin's deficits are already twice what they projected.

Shady · February 23, 2016

Whenever Justin gets criticized, Smallc runs to the rescue! Justifying, downplaying and excusing as much as possible. He's the PM stenographer.

Smallc · February 23, 2016

Lol. Yes, it's Harper's fault that Justin's deficits are already twice what they projected.

Ahhh, we're talking about the baseline deficit, before most Liberal spending measures. It appears Harper left a real mess (I can be just as ridiculous, if we're doing that).

Whenever Justin gets criticized, Smallc runs to the rescue! Justifying, downplaying and excusing as much as possible. He's the PM stenographer.

Only because the complaints are ridiculous.

The truth is, it's clear that any party would have to run a large deficit going forward. The difference is that the Liberals will have to run a larger deficit, as they promised to spend more in the campaign. Would Harper have run a smaller deficit than Trudeau? Yes. Would Harper have run a surplus? Not even a remote possibility at this point.

Smallc · February 23, 2016

I mean, the reality is, Harper ran a deficit that would be, today, in excess of $60B. I was fine with that because I understood that it was necessary given the conditions. I give Trudeau the same deference. The difference between you and I, is that I understand where both were coming from.

Spiderfish · February 23, 2016

People are largely happy with the Liberal government. This forum is definitely not representative of Canadians.

I suspect the honeymoon is coming to an end. Its quite revealing that this announcement was made exactly one month to the day before the Liberals release their first budget...the budget that sets the tone for their future mandate. There's little doubt that the intent of this announcement is to soften the impact of what's to come. As Shady said earlier...hold onto your wallets.

Smallc · February 23, 2016

I suspect the honeymoon is coming to an end.

I suspect that if that were true, and deficits lost elections, Harper would have lost the 2011 election. People voted Liberal knowing there would be a deficit. Now there will be a bigger one. Oh well. They promise to work towards balance. That means, for the next few years, it's mostly a dead issue. Beat at it though.

Smallc · February 23, 2016

So, the Liberals have created a $6B cushion:

http://www.ctvnews.ca/politics/kevin-page-liberals-need-to-explain-40b-adjustment-1.2788678

Given that, I expect a deficit of $25B.

Spiderfish · February 23, 2016

Would Harper have run a smaller deficit than Trudeau? Yes. Would Harper have run a surplus? Not even a remote possibility at this point.

You're really hung up on this. I'm wondering if it may be impacting your ability to look at this objectively.

Tell you what... I will admit that this situation is not entirely the fault of the Liberals; that the current state of the economy has an impact, do you concede that they bear at least partial responsibility for the fiscal pit we're currently sliding into?

TimG · February 23, 2016

They promise to work towards balance. That means, for the next few years, it's mostly a dead issue.

The Liberals will not balance the budget before they are booted out of office. The people running the party simply don't have the ability to tell the legions of rent seekers that there is no money for their pet issues. The longer they stay in power the worse it will be for Canada. Edited February 23, 2016 by TimG

Smallc · February 23, 2016

Tell you what... I will admit that this situation is not entirely the fault of the Liberals; that the current state of the economy has an impact, do you concede that they bear at least partial responsibility for the fiscal pit we're currently sliding into?

I don't blame them for the ~$10B of deficit (less their spending measures and their $6B cushion) that they're not responsible for. Anything about that is theirs to own. I want them to spend the money that they promised.

Smallc · February 23, 2016

The Liberals will not balance the budget before they are booted out of office.

That's a possibility - at this point a very remote a wishful one.

The people running the party simply don't have the ability to tell the legions of rent seekers that there is no money for their pet issues. The longer they stay in power the worse it will be for Canada.

And that's a bit of doom and gloom with no basis in reality.

The economic reality is here. The IMF and OECD are calling for stimulus. We have to deal with it.

TimG · February 23, 2016

That's a possibility - at this point a very remote a wishful one.

No - a very likely one given the personalities of the people running the show. By the time the next election comes around Trudeau will have racked up >$100 billion in deficits and will have no plan to get rid of them.

The economic reality is here. The IMF and OECD are calling for stimulus. We have to deal with it.

It is likely a permanent state of affairs and is not going to fixed by a couple years of deficits. Of course, that will be the excuse used to refuse to control spending.

BTW: when my predictions turn out to be correct will you agree that Trudeau has to go or will you simply invent some other rationalization?

Smallc · February 23, 2016

BTW: when my predictions turn out to be correct will you agree that Trudeau has to go or will you simply invent some other rationalization?

What should I do if they don't?

If Trudeau does a bad job, he has to go. I'm not wearing my blue hat, so I don't think he's doing a bad job. Neither do most other people.

Spiderfish · February 23, 2016

I suspect that if that were true, and deficits lost elections, Harper would have lost the 2011 election. People voted Liberal knowing there would be a deficit. Now there will be a bigger one. Oh well.

People did not give them carte blanche to go wild with the expense account and scratch all their itches in the first 120 days. They expected some restraint.

Theres a big difference between 5 billion and 25-30 + billion. Im not so sure this is what people voted for.

Smallc · February 23, 2016

People did not give them carte blanche to go wild with the expense account and scratch all their itches in the first 120 days. They expected some restraint.

Is that where you think the deficit came from? If it is, I can understand why you think you should be upset. The $18.4B deficit is largely ($10B) a result of the softening economy. The majority of the rest ($6B) is a contingency. We're dealing with an economy that will be worth more than $100B less next year than projected last year. That's reality, no matter who is in charge.

Theres a big difference between 5 billion and 25-30 + billion. Im not so sure this is what people voted for.

The promise was $10B. The deficit was going to be at least $12B with Harper's campaign promises, using Budget 2015 as a basis.

Spiderfish · February 23, 2016

The Liberals will not balance the budget before they are booted out of office.

That's a possibility - at this point a very remote a wishful one.

Has the worm turned that quickly?

If the government spends as they promised, without new measures in further years, the budget will in fact balance itself.

Smallc · February 23, 2016

There are a multitude of possibilities at this point. No one really knows exactly what the situation will be in 4 years.

Spiderfish · February 23, 2016

There are a multitude of possibilities at this point. No one really knows exactly what the situation will be in 4 years.

Uh huh. I have a feeling we are about to get a preview.

Smallc · February 23, 2016

Uh huh. I have a feeling we are about to get a preview.

I fully expect a large deficit. I have said as much multiple times. I expect it to mirror what happened in 2009, but with smaller numbers. I expect it to take approximately 5 - 6 years to get out of deficit. I expect the debt to GDP to start falling again next year. I expect these are all guesses on my part, just as everyone else is guessing.

Chuckie Tony · February 23, 2016

Tell that to Greece or Argentina. Canada is not like the US or the EU. If it piles up too much debt it has to issue bonds in USD or other foreign currencies. This makes the debt extremely painful and something that would eviscerate society. Canada was issuing USD bonds in the 90s. We must not go back to those days.

You can thank Harper for that. Trudeau didn't realize how big the mess is. More proof that the Conservatives are not prudent economic stewards.

eyeball · February 23, 2016

When will we start holding the Liberals accountable?

When Conservatives start leaving governments behind that can be held accountable?

Just wondering.

Edited February 23, 2016 by eyeball

waldo · February 23, 2016

When will we start holding the Liberals accountable?

at 31 per cent, Canada’s federal debt is the lowest among G7 countries... for example, a $27 billion deficit would be only 1.5 per cent of GDP.

Yes, Ottawa should run a bigger deficit

Trudeau can afford to spend far more as Canada's economy reels

The Conservatives’ deficit argument is … baffling

.

poochy · February 23, 2016

You can thank Harper for that. Trudeau didn't realize how big the mess is. More proof that the Conservatives are not prudent economic stewards.

They also don't control the price of oil, now you reply with the 'eggs in one basket' fallacy, we can see how far we go round the mulberry bush from there.

poochy · February 23, 2016

I don't much care about a deficit, the conservatives would have been in the same position had they won again, and yes they borrowed a pile of money during the recession, and we could pretend that they weren't forced to borrow more than they wanted, or risk an election, and we could pretend they spent all of it wisely, which they didn't. But this government, and im sure people here were parroting this, was supposed to be better than the conservatives, yet somehow they didn't see any of this coming, and we know that isn't true, but when trying to get elected all bets are off. Also, when you are spending money to impress your friends in the international bureaucracy, or promising pie in the sky inquiries that will accomplish nothing but cost lots, or any other number of boutique spending promises, (no doubt the CBC will get it's 150 million too), you also aren't spending it wisely. Maybe nicely, which is really what liberals are all about, but not wisely. But, it's 2016 right? When does bombardier get it's money i wonder, at least people work there.

So borrow 50 billion, borrow 100 billion, build real things, create actual jobs, not pretend, because we should be leaders in some such make believe industry things, or on some cause that we have no real influence over thing, or because it's the Canadian thing to do bs. But as many are fond of repeating, they are no different than the conservatives were, they will spend some of it on things we don't need, it will just be their choice of useless thing, at a time when a greater number of real people have lost their job and can't make their house payment we need spending on quality projects, and not fantasies.

But then again, and speaking of Bombardier, they could have allowed jet flights out of Toronto Island airport and Porter would have bought some planes and that would have created jobs in Toronto and Quebec, but, votes trump the economy, no doubt their spending policies will be as equally altruistic.

Edited February 23, 2016 by poochy