Stock market prices

bush_cheney2004 · October 11, 2015

or where Canada is on a map.

Easy to see from the American NOAA satellite imagery that Canada uses every day.

waldo · October 11, 2015

Yes....as demonstrated by this historical GDP graph:

do you see that same 'slave relationship' here... in this graph?

debt-to-gdp-620.png?w=500&h=399

Topaz · October 12, 2015

Again, this US person was saying because of China's problem they expect the stock market to crash by the end of the year, if this is true only god knows.

Argus · October 13, 2015

What about if one's portfolio contains mostly Canadian stocks?

You can expect certain sectors to suffer depending on who wins and what the numbers are. The worst outlook for the market would be an NDP win. You could expect a fairly steep and universal fall if that were to happen, especially among financial and resource stocks. If it's a Liberal win but supported by the NDP then the outlook will depend on what the NDP extracts in terms of promises from the Liberals for their help. The NDP want to hike business taxes, for example. And of course, the prospect of higher energy fees with some kind of cap and trade or carbon taxation would also hurt energy intensive industries, like the auto sector as well as the resource sector.

Argus · October 13, 2015

Again, this US person was saying because of China's problem they expect the stock market to crash by the end of the year, if this is true only god knows.

There are claims of a stock market crash every other day, and have been for decades.

Icebound · October 13, 2015

If the CPC doesn't win in the federal election and say the LPC wins, do you think the stock price for publicly traded corporations will go up or not?

I think if the LPCs win, then stock prices will fall. I'm trying to figure out if I hit sell and then wait for the stocks to adjust. I am significantly vested in the stock market....and i'm now back in the black post the Chinese market problem...

I don't know if it applies to Canada, but you should be aware that in the that past 100 years in the USA, the stock-market under DEMOCRATIC presidents has outperformed the market under Republican presidents.

http://blog.cmcmarkets.com.au/asset-class/companies/what-does-the-us-presidential-election-mean-for-markets/

...

bush_cheney2004 · October 13, 2015

I don't know if it applies to Canada...

Probably doesn't apply at all to Canada anymore than Tories being better vs. Labour in the U.K. Besides, it looks like Republican president Calvin Coolidge had the best record for stock market performance (1923 - 1929 "Roaring Twenties").

Here is a more general discussion of historical economic performance by party in Canada with the usual references to the United States:

http://worthwhile.typepad.com/worthwhile_canadian_initi/2011/02/why-is-canadian-gdp-growth-higher-under-liberal-governments.html

The more narrow question of party vote being influenced by popular economic sentiment probably has more direct evidence.

msj · October 14, 2015

Not that I place any value on this but here is the data for Canada and the TSX by PM:

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-10-13/for-canada-investors-liberals-have-been-better-bet-than-tories

ReeferMadness · October 14, 2015

Not that I place any value on this but here is the data for Canada and the TSX by PM:

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-10-13/for-canada-investors-liberals-have-been-better-bet-than-tories

lol!!

Bring back Joe Clark!!

Luckily for them, Conservatives don't believe in evidence based policy.

Edited October 14, 2015 by ReeferMadness

Wilber · October 14, 2015

The fact Conservative governments had to deal with worst years of the Great Depression and the 2008 financial meltdown, the two worst financial crisis' in our history, couldn't have anything to do with it?

Timing and luck, like the article's author said. A lot of people around here don't believe in evidence based policy.

dre · October 14, 2015

The fact Conservative governments had to deal with worst years of the Great Depression and the 2008 financial meltdown, the two worst financial crisis' in our history, couldn't have anything to do with it?

Timing and luck, like the article's author said. A lot of people around here don't believe in evidence based policy.

Its HOW they dealt with it. They just kicked the can down the road... the recession is still coming. If the liberals win this time, they will be the ones holding the bag. And it hits the fans the liberals will claim they INHERITED a huge housing bubble, record levels of household debt, and dangerous short-sighted montary policy, and they will be right. But nobody will care and they will still get blamed for the voters economic fortunes.

In a way the conservatives nailed their timing perfectly. Obviously they knew that unprecidented credit expansion, and a decade of near-zero interest rates what going to result in dangerously low savings rates, and foster the creation of asset bubbles and that at some point the house of cards would come crash down. If the polls hold true they will have kept the economy on live support just long enough to punt the structural problems to a future government.

msj · October 14, 2015

The fact Conservative governments had to deal with worst years of the Great Depression and the 2008 financial meltdown, the two worst financial crisis' in our history, couldn't have anything to do with it?

Timing and luck, like the article's author said. A lot of people around here don't believe in evidence based policy.

One can go look up the stock return table and find an excuse for why stocks went up or down for any time period.

This information is completely useless - especially in Canada where so much of our economy relies on commodity prices which are set by global supply and demand.

Wilber · October 15, 2015

Its HOW they dealt with it. They just kicked the can down the road... the recession is still coming. If the liberals win this time, they will be the ones holding the bag. And it hits the fans the liberals will claim they INHERITED a huge housing bubble, record levels of household debt, and dangerous short-sighted montary policy, and they will be right. But nobody will care and they will still get blamed for the voters economic fortunes.

In a way the conservatives nailed their timing perfectly. Obviously they knew that unprecidented credit expansion, and a decade of near-zero interest rates what going to result in dangerously low savings rates, and foster the creation of asset bubbles and that at some point the house of cards would come crash down. If the polls hold true they will have kept the economy on live support just long enough to punt the structural problems to a future government.

Low interest rates are the fault of the conservatives but Trudeau needs to take advantage of them to increase public spending an debt which is going to result in greater savings rates and expand the economy which will in turn result in lower housing costs. What nonsense.

Wilber · October 15, 2015

One can go look up the stock return table and find an excuse for why stocks went up or down for any time period.

This information is completely useless - especially in Canada where so much of our economy relies on commodity prices which are set by global supply and demand.

Most sensible thing you have said yet.

ToadBrother · October 15, 2015

Low interest rates are the fault of the conservatives but Trudeau needs to take advantage of them to increase public spending an debt which is going to result in greater savings rates and expand the economy which will in turn result in lower housing costs. What nonsense.

The Bank of Canada is run at arm's length from the Government. The Government appoints the Governor and the Board of Directors, but decisions like the overnight rate are made based on inflation targets, economic performance and prevailing international economic conditions.

It's not as if the Minister of Finance phones up the Governor and says "Hey, Stevey boy. Listen, we got this election coming up, so, y'know, could you maybe drop the prime rate a few basis points the next time you meet. Thanks Stevey, much appreciated!"

Wilber · October 15, 2015

The Bank of Canada is run at arm's length from the Government. The Government appoints the Governor and the Board of Directors, but decisions like the overnight rate are made based on inflation targets, economic performance and prevailing international economic conditions.

It's not as if the Minister of Finance phones up the Governor and says "Hey, Stevey boy. Listen, we got this election coming up, so, y'know, could you maybe drop the prime rate a few basis points the next time you meet. Thanks Stevey, much appreciated!"

I know that. What's your point? I've said before that the Bank reacts to what governments and the economy do, that is why their control over interest rates is limited.

msj · October 15, 2015

Low interest rates are the fault of the conservatives but Trudeau needs to take advantage of them to increase public spending an debt which is going to result in greater savings rates and expand the economy which will in turn result in lower housing costs. What nonsense.

No, the CPC have used rules such as allowing $0 down and 40 year mortgage amortizations (changed to 5% down and 35 years and now 5% and 30 years) to allow Canadians to binge on debt.

Flaherty had it right to tighten up from 0/40 which was a very dangerous policy.

The CPC should have continued to go further with 10% down payments since even in Canada many people are getting cash back mortgages meaning that they are still putting 0 down.

Governments have little control over interest rates.

They can control the lending rules though - especially when the Chartered Banks are run from the cabinet table.

Wilber · October 15, 2015

I agree that their mortgage policy was wrong but what has this to do with government borrowing money on the never never plan? People don't take out mortgages with the idea they will never pay them back. Only governments do that.

ToadBrother · October 15, 2015

I agree that their mortgage policy was wrong but what has this to do with government borrowing money on the never never plan? People don't take out mortgages with the idea they will never pay them back. Only governments do that.

And where is it that the Liberals say the money will never be paid back?

Wilber · October 15, 2015

And where is it that the Liberals say the money will never be paid back?

Where is that they say they will? All they have talked about is borrowing. Even if they eventually do balance a budget, that isn't paying off debt, it's just not increasing it. ,

ToadBrother · October 15, 2015

Where is that they say they will? All they have talked about is borrowing. Even if they eventually do balance a budget, that isn't paying off debt, it's just not increasing it. ,

They said three years of deficits and then a balanced budget.

I'm not all that confident in their platform, but at least I've bothered to look at what they're actually saying.

angrypenguin · October 15, 2015

They said three years of deficits and then a balanced budget.

I'm not all that confident in their platform, but at least I've bothered to look at what they're actually saying.

So explain the 4th year.

Smallc · October 15, 2015

So explain the 4th year.

A surplus?

blueblood · October 15, 2015

A surplus?

It will have to be because the tories new leader can hang that over trudeaus head. I.E the tories just balanced the budget and are campaigning on lower taxes consistently. The tories can say, we gave trudeau a balanced budget and he promised a balanced budget in 4 yrs. pretty good election issue in 4 yrs imo.