Smallc Posted October 18, 2015 Report Share Posted October 18, 2015 I balance the poll projections (which are mostly top down mathematical models that have historically underestimated Conservative numbers) with electionprediction.org, which is bottom up analysis. Also, IIRC, polling on voting from advance polls show a Conservative lead at this point. I believe that was Ekos and so I give it very little credit. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ReeferMadness Posted October 18, 2015 Report Share Posted October 18, 2015 Do we really need 338 folks in Ottawa to adequately represent all Canadians? How about 170 or maybe 676? I think that's the wrong question at this point. We need MP's who are empowered, not ones who are simply captive to party platforms. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ReeferMadness Posted October 18, 2015 Report Share Posted October 18, 2015 I believe that was Ekos and so I give it very little credit. Nobody in polling land has seriously suggested that it is likely there is a Liberal majority. It's always a possibility but only an outside chance. There's also an outside chance of another Conservative majority. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
G Huxley Posted October 18, 2015 Report Share Posted October 18, 2015 (edited) I think I under-estimated on the Bloc. It looks like the Duceppe might be throwing a considerable wrench into the election and he may give it to the conservatives, I've changed my Bloc prediction to 6 seats. Mind you it is likely that Duceppe will be eating into NDP numbers which should help the liberals too. Edited October 18, 2015 by G Huxley Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Smallc Posted October 18, 2015 Report Share Posted October 18, 2015 Nobody in polling land has seriously suggested that it is likely there is a Liberal majority. It's always a possibility but only an outside chance. There's also an outside chance of another Conservative majority. A couple pollsters have been hinting at it over the week. I don't see it yet but I see them coming in at about 160. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vancouver King Posted October 18, 2015 Report Share Posted October 18, 2015 I would take my chances with a Liberal majority before I accepted a Conservative minority - but I don't think it will come to that. In order of likelihood, here's how I see tomorrow's results 1. Liberal minority 2. Conservative minority 3. Liberal majority 4. Conservative majority 5. NDP minority I don't see any potential for an NDP majority. 1. Liberal majority 2 Liberal minority ... there are no other real-world possibilities. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Smallc Posted October 18, 2015 Report Share Posted October 18, 2015 I see a conservative minority as a possibility but I would rate it as being 3rd after a liberal majority. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vancouver King Posted October 18, 2015 Report Share Posted October 18, 2015 Political junkies in this forum should be demanding of the electoral gods a minority outcome tomorrow, if only for their own mental health. Can you imagine the boredom of a majority compared to the potential intrigues of a Trudeau minority? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Exegesisme Posted October 18, 2015 Report Share Posted October 18, 2015 (edited) THE GLOBE'S ELECTION FORECAST changed their forecast now as following Con 120 (85-152) NDP 47 (35-90) Lib 145 (110-180) Green 2 Bloc 24(2-45), their averages much more approach my prediction, but their ranges are much larger than my prediction. Six Estes. of New Distribution of Seats After Election 2015 Con NDP Lib Green Bloc Seats 338 My EST(1) 114+-15 47+-10 153+-20 2+-1 22+-12 THE GLOBE'S ELECTION FORECAST​(2) 101 63 170 1 3 The Huffington Post Canada(3) ​120 76 133 1 8 CBC polls analyst(4) 122 73 137 1 5 Trading Statistics and Predictions(5) 113 65 151 2 7 election prediction(6) 119 86 120 2 5 6(?) Reference (1)http://www.mapleleafweb.com/forums/topic/18384-federal-election-polls/page-369 (2)http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/politics/globe-election-forecast-2015/article25377958/ (3)​http://www.huffingtonpost.ca/2015/10/18/election-2015-seat-projections-liberals-trudeau_n_8325024.html (4)http://www.cbc.ca/news2/interactives/poll-tracker/2015/index.html (5)https://predictionmarkets.ca/CA15.php (6)​http://www.electionprediction.org/2015_fed/index.php Edited October 18, 2015 by Exegesisme Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Exegesisme Posted October 18, 2015 Report Share Posted October 18, 2015 1. Liberal majority 2 Liberal minority ... there are no other real-world possibilities. 1 less likely, 2 more likely. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Exegesisme Posted October 19, 2015 Report Share Posted October 19, 2015 I see a conservative minority as a possibility but I would rate it as being 3rd after a liberal majority. Practically conservative government is going to be over soon. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Exegesisme Posted October 19, 2015 Report Share Posted October 19, 2015 I think I under-estimated on the Bloc. It looks like the Duceppe might be throwing a considerable wrench into the election and he may give it to the conservatives, I've changed my Bloc prediction to 6 seats. Mind you it is likely that Duceppe will be eating into NDP numbers which should help the liberals too. Your prediction of Bloc 6 seats is still too under-estimated, I believe possibly Bloc is going to give you a surprise. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
G Huxley Posted October 19, 2015 Report Share Posted October 19, 2015 Fair enough, they are pretty much polling head to head with the NDP and the Liberals. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cybercoma Posted October 19, 2015 Author Report Share Posted October 19, 2015 I just caught wind of a couple internal polls in my riding that confirm each other. Better pay attention to Fredericton tomorrow, folks. The numbers are going to surprise some people. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Exegesisme Posted October 19, 2015 Report Share Posted October 19, 2015 I just caught wind of a couple internal polls in my riding that confirm each other. Better pay attention to Fredericton tomorrow, folks. The numbers are going to surprise some people. Liberal and Bloc will become black horses. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
G Huxley Posted October 19, 2015 Report Share Posted October 19, 2015 Doesn't say much for Quebec. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ReeferMadness Posted October 19, 2015 Report Share Posted October 19, 2015 I just caught wind of a couple internal polls in my riding that confirm each other. Better pay attention to Fredericton tomorrow, folks. The numbers are going to surprise some people. That wonderful candidate Mary Lou Babineau is going to win? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cybercoma Posted October 19, 2015 Author Report Share Posted October 19, 2015 Liberal and Bloc will become black horses. The BQ doesn't run candidates in New Brunswick. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cybercoma Posted October 19, 2015 Author Report Share Posted October 19, 2015 That wonderful candidate Mary Lou Babineau is going to win? Can't say for sure, but people will probably be surprised by the outcome no matter what it is. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ReeferMadness Posted October 19, 2015 Report Share Posted October 19, 2015 (edited) electionprediction.org and votetogether both say it's a Liberal walk in the park. Obviously, you think there's an NDP resurgence? Or Conservative. 308 and election-atlas say Liberal as well. Edited October 19, 2015 by ReeferMadness Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cybercoma Posted October 19, 2015 Author Report Share Posted October 19, 2015 It will most likely go liberal, though not certainly, and the rest of the results may surprise people, if internal polling is to be believed. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Exegesisme Posted October 19, 2015 Report Share Posted October 19, 2015 Six Estes. of New Distribution of Seats After Election 2015 (Renew) Con NDP Lib Green Bloc Seats 338 My EST(1) 97+-15 42+-8 175+-20 2+-1 19+-10 THE GLOBE'S ELECTION FORECAST​(2) 122 65 149 1 1 The Huffington Post Canada(3) ​120 76 133 1 8 CBC polls analyst(4) 120 71 141 1 5 Trading Statistics and Predictions(5) 115 70 142 2 8 1(o) election prediction(6) 119 86 120 2 5 6(O) Reference (1) My own estimation (2) http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/politics/globe-election-forecast-2015/article25377958/ (3) http://www.huffingtonpost.ca/2015/10/18/election-2015-seat-projections-liberals-trudeau_n_8325024.html (4) http://www.cbc.ca/news2/interactives/poll-tracker/2015/index.html (5) https://predictionmarkets.ca/CA15.php (6) http://www.electionprediction.org/2015_fed/index.php Six Estes. of New Distribution of Seats After Election 2015 Con NDP Lib Green Bloc Seats 338 My EST(1) 114+-15 47+-10 153+-20 2+-1 22+-12 THE GLOBE'S ELECTION FORECAST​(2) 101 63 170 1 3 The Huffington Post Canada(3) ​120 76 133 1 8 CBC polls analyst(4) 122 73 137 1 5 Trading Statistics and Predictions(5) 113 65 151 2 7 election prediction(6) 119 86 120 2 5 6(?) Reference (1)http://www.mapleleafweb.com/forums/topic/18384-federal-election-polls/page-369 (2)http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/politics/globe-election-forecast-2015/article25377958/ (3)​http://www.huffingtonpost.ca/2015/10/18/election-2015-seat-projections-liberals-trudeau_n_8325024.html (4)http://www.cbc.ca/news2/interactives/poll-tracker/2015/index.html (5)https://predictionmarkets.ca/CA15.php (6)​http://www.electionprediction.org/2015_fed/index.php Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Smallc Posted October 19, 2015 Report Share Posted October 19, 2015 Mainstreet predicting a Liberal Majority on their twitter. EKOS, after releasing their last poll, says the logjam has broken, the Liberals are surging. The poll didn't quite catch it. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Exegesisme Posted October 19, 2015 Report Share Posted October 19, 2015 (edited) My prediction in words: 1, Liberal majority is first likely, Liberal minority is second likely. 2, Conservative will become the official opposition party. 3, NDP loses more than half of its seats. 4, Bloc will have a large gain. 5, Green still needs more efforts in future. Edited October 19, 2015 by Exegesisme Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cybercoma Posted October 19, 2015 Author Report Share Posted October 19, 2015 Mainstreet predicting a Liberal Majority on their twitter. EKOS, after releasing their last poll, says the logjam has broken, the Liberals are surging. The poll didn't quite catch it. Mainstreet predicting a Liberal Majority? I think these pollsters are going to be surprised tomorrow. The seat count is going to be much closer than the popular support makes it seem. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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