ToadBrother Posted October 6, 2015 Report Posted October 6, 2015 The national polling numbers just don't translate well into seat counts... that's why the poll tracker on the CBC website has such a huge range of potential seats for the parties... With a 2% change in support the CPC went from a minority to a strong majority in the last election because of how it broke out in the ridings. Don't translate well doesn't mean does not translate at all. They are a crude mechanism, but in general, the principle has long held true that if you get into the high 30s, you're in majority or near-majority territory, and if you get above 40%, a majority is almost guaranteed. Three way splits may muck with that a lot, so perhaps the NDP or Liberals would need to get past 40% to get a majority, whereas the Tories could get there maybe at 37% to 38%, but still, I think the rule is a useful guide. Quote
angrypenguin Posted October 7, 2015 Report Posted October 7, 2015 Don't translate well doesn't mean does not translate at all. They are a crude mechanism, but in general, the principle has long held true that if you get into the high 30s, you're in majority or near-majority territory, and if you get above 40%, a majority is almost guaranteed. Three way splits may muck with that a lot, so perhaps the NDP or Liberals would need to get past 40% to get a majority, whereas the Tories could get there maybe at 37% to 38%, but still, I think the rule is a useful guide. So I guess at this point we're definitely headed towards a minority, with a higher probability of it being a Conservative minority. Any disagreements? Unlike the morons in the comments sections of various online papers, I forecast there's no chance in hell it'll be a Conservative majority. Quote My views are my own and not those of my employer.
ToadBrother Posted October 7, 2015 Report Posted October 7, 2015 So I guess at this point we're definitely headed towards a minority, with a higher probability of it being a Conservative minority. Any disagreements? Unlike the morons in the comments sections of various online papers, I forecast there's no chance in hell it'll be a Conservative majority. Then the question becomes can a Tory minority survive? If we're talking about a 140 seat Tory minority, and presuming the Liberals and NDP together easily having enough seats to oust them, and positing that there is a pretty strong ABH sentiment among both opposition parties' supporters, how does a weak to moderate plurality ultimately help the Tories? Quote
Smeelious Posted October 7, 2015 Report Posted October 7, 2015 Well it doesn't...Except... With aid from the Liberals they could get TPP pushed through before being ousted. Quote
cybercoma Posted October 7, 2015 Author Report Posted October 7, 2015 Well it doesn't...Except... With aid from the Liberals they could get TPP pushed through before being ousted. They wouldn't need to. The Liberals will push it through with aid from the CPC. Quote
ToadBrother Posted October 7, 2015 Report Posted October 7, 2015 They wouldn't need to. The Liberals will push it through with aid from the CPC. In technical terms, other than any possible amendments to legislation, Parliamentary approval is not required for treaty ratification. Quote
cybercoma Posted October 7, 2015 Author Report Posted October 7, 2015 It's not, but didn't the Tories say they would seek it anyway? Quote
ToadBrother Posted October 7, 2015 Report Posted October 7, 2015 It's not, but didn't the Tories say they would seek it anyway? A poison pill for their rivals. It would be non binding and thus not a confidence motionm Quote
cybercoma Posted October 7, 2015 Author Report Posted October 7, 2015 The Liberals support it and have made that pretty clear. I'm not sure how it's a poison pill. If there was a vote on it, the Liberals and Conservatives would vote yes and the NDP, Greens, and Bloc would vote no. Quote
Vancouver King Posted October 8, 2015 Report Posted October 8, 2015 (edited) This is a revision from a week ago. CPC - 155 Liberal - 123 NDP - 59 Green - 1 This supposes NDP support in Quebec has stabilized. Wrong supposition - ipolitics is latest pollster to confirm NDP in Quebec is still shedding support. CPC is now primary beneficiary - speculation is their Quebec total to go from 5 to 25. As noted here weeks ago this newly found Quebec strength will move a strong minority position into majority territory. Here then is my latest (last?) revision: Cons - 172 Libs - 117 NDP - 47 Green - 1 Bloc - 1 It's all over, folks. Edited October 8, 2015 by Vancouver King Quote When the people have no tyrant, their public opinion becomes one. ...... Lord Lytton
ToadBrother Posted October 8, 2015 Report Posted October 8, 2015 Wrong supposition - ipolitics is latest pollster to confirm NDP in Quebec is still shedding support. CPC is now primary beneficiary - speculation is their Quebec total to go from 5 to 25. As noted here weeks ago this newly found Quebec strength will move a strong minority position into majority territory. Here then is my latest (last?) revision: Cons - 172 Libs - 115 NDP - 47 Green - 1 Bloc - 1 It's all over, folks. This is pure fantasy. Quote
cybercoma Posted October 8, 2015 Author Report Posted October 8, 2015 As it stand today anyway haha Quote
webc5 Posted October 8, 2015 Report Posted October 8, 2015 I can't see a world where the NDP drops below 50 seats. They will likely end up with 60-80 seats. Quote
dialamah Posted October 8, 2015 Report Posted October 8, 2015 I have to admit I feel bad for committed NDP voters. Quote
Smeelious Posted October 8, 2015 Report Posted October 8, 2015 I can't see a world where the NDP drops below 50 seats. They will likely end up with 60-80 seats. The way things are going, it's not too far from reality at this point. Quote
ReeferMadness Posted October 9, 2015 Report Posted October 9, 2015 I think a majority government is unlikely, though not out of the question. I think a weak minority (either for Conservatives or Liberals) is the most likely scenario. I'm picturing Harper choking out the words "Prime Minister Trudeau". Quote Unlimited economic growth has the marvelous quality of stilling discontent while preserving privilege, a fact that has not gone unnoticed among liberal economists. - Noam Chomsky It is difficult to get a man to understand something, when his salary depends on his not understanding it. - Upton Sinclair
nerve Posted October 9, 2015 Report Posted October 9, 2015 (edited) Reefer I don't understand how you can in anyway think a Conservative Minority is possible - it is totally unsound to think that the conservatives would ever pass a confidence vote, it is simply an impossibility. It is comparable to me being raped by supermodel chicks every time I walk in public - it just isn't going to happen. What the sane question now is - will it be a liberal minority (less likely NDP minority but still possible) or a liberal/ndp coalition majority... OR liberal/ndp minority. - also would they throw in may for the hell of it, if her seat is solid - one would think they would be selfish but I think most Canadians actually respect May for her knowledge of the environment for a position as a minister of environment - but maybe I am mistaken. Stop fooling yourself into thinking that a conservative minority government could actually happen it is more likely I would win the lotto than conservatives forming a minority government, stop kidding yourself. It is more likely they would form a majority government and that is the least likely of the possible scenarios. Just stop wasting peoples time talking about a conservative minority government, it won't function. Don't waste peoples energy on that it is a fantasy. You totally make yourself look like a shill even suggesting something like that. If you look at the planks there is common ground for the Liberals and NDP such as middle class unionized workers, - taxing the very well off, transit investment, reduction on small business taxes, youth employment, increasing funding of the CBC, environmental stewardship, helping middle class families, strengthening the pension system, improving the OAS system, poverty reduction, etc.. these things alone could keep them "on the same page" for quite some time. if how long the conservative party took to do anything, and they may even be more successful with implementing some of these issues. It is likely the Liberals are wiling to spend on infrastructure also which very well could support some planks of the NDP labour sector jobs plan for construction, industry etc.. that is focusing on industry as opposed to resource extraction as a mid term stimulus. I would not rule out resource extraction but it would likely be more deliberate and not focused on oil sands development. You know cause there are other large projects that could bring substantial gains to Canadians. Edited October 9, 2015 by nerve Quote
Smeelious Posted October 9, 2015 Report Posted October 9, 2015 (edited) Stop fooling yourself into thinking that a conservative minority government could actually happen it is more likely I would win the lotto than conservatives forming a minority government, stop kidding yourself. It is more likely they would form a majority government and that is the least likely of the possible scenarios. Just stop wasting peoples time talking about a conservative minority government, it won't function. Don't waste peoples energy on that it is a fantasy. You totally make yourself look like a shill even suggesting something like that. Well, coalition governments keep getting proposed in Canada but they don't materialize. What incentive would the NDP have for propping up the Liberals, other than nominal agreements on some issues. Also, TPP is a wedge issue between the Liberals and the NDP. What happens when the Liberals and the Conservatives vote for it, and the NDP against if the Conservatives have more seats? Would nixing the TPP be a requirement of NDP cooperation in a coalition? The conservatives won't prop up a liberal government. The NDP won't be able to form the government as things are now. To say that the Conservatives have no chance of forming government is just being obtuse. If they have the most seats, they will try. The liberals and the conservatives do have common ground (not as much as the liberals/NDP but still) The questions are: Will the conservatives be willing to give up enough to gain the liberal support they need?; Will the NDP demand too much of the Libersals to prop them up? Nobody will want an election too quickly. I'd guess if the conservatives do get the most seats, they will form the government for 6 months anyway Edited October 9, 2015 by Smeelious Quote
dialamah Posted October 9, 2015 Report Posted October 9, 2015 I'm picturing Harper choking out the words "Prime Minister Trudeau".Sweet! But didn't Harper say he'd quit if he lost by even one seat? Quote
Smeelious Posted October 9, 2015 Report Posted October 9, 2015 Sweet! But didn't Harper say he'd quit if he lost by even one seat? No, he said he wouldn't be PM in that case...Which is ...obvious...Mansbridge dropped the ball on that line of questioning. Quote
ToadBrother Posted October 9, 2015 Report Posted October 9, 2015 Well, coalition governments keep getting proposed in Canada but they don't materialize. What incentive would the NDP have for propping up the Liberals, other than nominal agreements on some issues. It wouldn't be nominal influence, and I would suspect electoral reform would be at the top of the agenda. Also, TPP is a wedge issue between the Liberals and the NDP. What happens when the Liberals and the Conservatives vote for it, and the NDP against if the Conservatives have more seats? Would nixing the TPP be a requirement of NDP cooperation in a coalition? The conservatives won't prop up a liberal government. The NDP won't be able to form the government as things are now. The NDP will take their principled stand, it's not a confidence issue, and Parliament will move on. To say that the Conservatives have no chance of forming government is just being obtuse. If they have the most seats, they will try. The liberals and the conservatives do have common ground (not as much as the liberals/NDP but still) The questions are: Will the conservatives be willing to give up enough to gain the liberal support they need?; Will the NDP demand too much of the Libersals to prop them up? Nobody will want an election too quickly. I'd guess if the conservatives do get the most seats, they will form the government for 6 months anyway The Liberals supported the Conservatives from 2009 to 2011 and it delivered them an electoral disaster. If the Conservatives don't win a majority, or a very high minority, they're done. It's that simple. Quote
Moonlight Graham Posted October 9, 2015 Report Posted October 9, 2015 (edited) The latest polls are showing a huge turn towards the Liberals at the expense of the NDP. There may be a modest "red crush" coming as people are looking to jump on any winner that will defeat Harper. As we get closer to the election, people are starting to think more strategically in their ridings, and that will mostly favour the Liberals, especially in Ontario. We saw it with the NDP last election, we saw it in Alberta. LPC: 129 CPC: 123 NDP: 84 BQ: 1 GRN: 1 According to the latest CBC poll tracker and seat projections, so far my seat predictions are looking pretty good. I was being pretty conservative on my predicted "orange crash"/red crush and the Liberal seat #'s, but we could see the Liberals gain even more seats at the expense of the NDP, especially in QC, than my prediction. Maybe something like Libs: 134, NDP 79 is even likely. Edited October 9, 2015 by Moonlight Graham Quote "All generalizations are false, including this one." - Mark Twain Partisanship is a disease of the intellect.
ToadBrother Posted October 9, 2015 Report Posted October 9, 2015 According to the latest CBC poll tracker and seat projections, so far my seat predictions are looking pretty good. I was being pretty conservative on my predicted "orange crash"/red crush and the Liberal seat #'s, but we could see the Liberals gain even more seats at the expense of the NDP, especially in QC, than my prediction. Maybe something like Libs: 134, NDP 79 is even likely. Still very close, but both 308 and the Signal seem to be consistently giving the Liberals a very slight edge, and as I observed yesterday, the assumption that has governed predictions in this election, that of high Tory vote efficiency, seems to be eroding as three way races diminish and it becomes a race between Tories and Liberals. The Tories counted on vote splits to deliver them a lot close races, and now it looks like that isn't going to happen in many cases. Quote
Smeelious Posted October 9, 2015 Report Posted October 9, 2015 It wouldn't be nominal influence, and I would suspect electoral reform would be at the top of the agenda. If the Conservatives win the most seats and the NDP props up the Liberals to form government...This would likely be true, and would most likely force an election the second the revised voting whatevers where in place. My concern with this is how long it would take. Would a minority government actually last long enough to put this through? I"m not sure what process would have to occur to change how the election works. I guess that's a research project for this afternoon. The NDP will take their principled stand, it's not a confidence issue, and Parliament will move on.It's not a confidence issue, but the government can say yea or nae. If the requirement of the NDP propping up the liberals is to nix the TPP we have an issue. Quote
ToadBrother Posted October 9, 2015 Report Posted October 9, 2015 (edited) If the Conservatives win the most seats and the NDP props up the Liberals to form government...This would likely be true, and would most likely force an election the second the revised voting whatevers where in place. My concern with this is how long it would take. Would a minority government actually last long enough to put this through? I"m not sure what process would have to occur to change how the election works. I guess that's a research project for this afternoon.The NDP will prop up the Liberals because both will probably broke by the 19th. The Tories have created the perfect conditions for a two to three year minority government.It's not a confidence issue, but the government can say yea or nae. If the requirement of the NDP propping up the liberals is to nix the TPP we have an issue.The NDP will vote no, and that will be it. Edited October 10, 2015 by ToadBrother Quote
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