ScottM Posted October 1, 2015 Report Share Posted October 1, 2015 Obviously, this is the most wide open election in some time -- probably the most competitive in Canadian history when looking at it as a three-cornered contest. As such, it seems to me that there are possibly very small margins between a party's campaign being considered an unqualified success or a complete disaster. After the 2011 campaign, it was obvious that the Liberals and the Bloc had met with disaster, and it seemed obvious that both would have a leadership change. I've been wondering lately what it would take to see that in each of the top three parties. Since I'm new here, I want to stress that this isn't intended to push debate in one direction or another. It's something I'm honestly curious about. Anyway, here are my guesses: Stephen Harper: As the sitting Prime Minister, my guess is that anything other than returning to government would be considered a failed campaign. Therefore, unless we see a fourth straight Tory government, I'm guessing he might very well resign. Thomas Mulcair: This one is a little harder to me. I definitely think the NDP has to finish third for him to go, but I'm not exactly sure how far back they'd have to finish. I don't think that third place with 100 seats would spell his end, but what if they get down to 70 or 80? Would they have to drop further than that? Justin Trudeau: Win, lose, or draw, I think Trudeau is probably the least likely of the three to resign after this election. The reason is pretty simple: even if the Liberals fall sharply from their current polling numbers, it's hard to imagine a scenario in which they don't drastically improve their seat totals. Therefore, it seems almost unfathomable that he doesn't get a second shot to lead the party even if they somehow fall into a somewhat distant third. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
August1991 Posted October 1, 2015 Report Share Posted October 1, 2015 (edited) Obviously, this is the most wide open election in some time -- probably the most competitive in Canadian history when looking at it as a three-cornered contest. I disagree with your opinion. The 1988 election was far more competitive, and the 1972 election more three-cornered. Nevertheless, ScottM, you raise a good question: what happens to the leaders in November? Rather than try to predict election results, this strikes me as a more interesting game. ===== IMHO, there are three parties that can form a government, and any three could form a majority/minority. That makes six possible outcomes. NDP/Liberal majority/minority, PM is Mulcair/Trudeau -with support of the other if minority in the first House vote. Harper gets most seats, majority: No problem. Harper gets most seats, but not majority: We have a mess. ---- And yet, the BQ may put a screwdriver in all this. Edited October 1, 2015 by August1991 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cybercoma Posted October 1, 2015 Report Share Posted October 1, 2015 If Mulcair loses Québec, he will be forced to resign as party leader, even if it's against his will. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PIK Posted October 1, 2015 Report Share Posted October 1, 2015 Do you think harper will stay on for a full term if given a majority? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cybercoma Posted October 1, 2015 Report Share Posted October 1, 2015 Me? I don't think so. He'll want to retire soon enough to give a new leader a chance to get established. He says he'll stay on 4 years with a majority, but I doubt it. He'll likely announce his resignation after two years and step down at the third year to give the new leader a year or so. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ScottM Posted October 1, 2015 Author Report Share Posted October 1, 2015 Me? I don't think so. He'll want to retire soon enough to give a new leader a chance to get established. He says he'll stay on 4 years with a majority, but I doubt it. He'll likely announce his resignation after two years and step down at the third year to give the new leader a year or so. I agree that he'd want to give his replacement about a year. I highly doubt he'd want to be seen as putting his successor in a John Turner/Kim Campbell type of position. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Keepitsimple Posted October 1, 2015 Report Share Posted October 1, 2015 Do you think harper will stay on for a full term if given a majority? I don't think he'll stay around for another election - he'd be 60. Assuming he gets a comfortable majority, it would be a question of timing - after two years or three? But really, the real factor might be how the world is working. I firmly believe that Harper would do what he felt was best for Canada - not for himself. Who knows what might unfold? That said, I think the "plan" is to turn things over to the next generation........ Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
angrypenguin Posted October 1, 2015 Report Share Posted October 1, 2015 Harper strikes me as a Chretien sort of guy. When did Chretien retire? Harper is only 56. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ScottM Posted October 1, 2015 Author Report Share Posted October 1, 2015 Harper strikes me as a Chretien sort of guy. When did Chretien retire? Harper is only 56. Chretien was just shy of 70. He was also dealing with the Sponsorship Scandal and the Gomery Commission was right around the corner. If those issues hadn't been present, who knows what he might have done. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
angrypenguin Posted October 1, 2015 Report Share Posted October 1, 2015 Chretien was just shy of 70. He was also dealing with the Sponsorship Scandal and the Gomery Commission was right around the corner. If those issues hadn't been present, who knows what he might have done. I knew that bugger was old, I forgot he was THAT old. As far as what would have happened? I still think since the formation of the PC party, Harper would have eventually been able to topple him, although it might have taken a few more years. *forming of the PC party was useful since it combined the "right" vote. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ScottM Posted October 1, 2015 Author Report Share Posted October 1, 2015 I knew that bugger was old, I forgot he was THAT old. As far as what would have happened? I still think since the formation of the PC party, Harper would have eventually been able to topple him, although it might have taken a few more years. *forming of the PC party was useful since it combined the "right" vote. And that had a lot to do with the timing of the 2000 election. Chretien was scared of a united right that might have toppled him. I think Chretien knew he had to go or risk an electoral disaster in 2004. Harper, on the other hand, whatever scandals he may have, and however many people may be screaming for his head, can still win. If we see another Conservative mandate, Harper doesn't go unless he wants to. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cribone Posted October 2, 2015 Report Share Posted October 2, 2015 harper wont stay very long if he gets minority but will stay long enough to allow the Con party time to get a new leader and allow that person to be PM before calling election. The other parties wont bring down the government in fear of ticking off the electorate by playing politics. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cribone Posted October 2, 2015 Report Share Posted October 2, 2015 If one of the other parties get a minority he'll go right away. This allows time for a new party leader to be picked and some breathing room for the governing party. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
capricorn Posted October 2, 2015 Report Share Posted October 2, 2015 If we see another Conservative mandate, Harper doesn't go unless he wants to. I've read he really enjoys holding the job of PM. Although, this time around I think he would resign shortly if he wins a minority government, in order to enable the party rebuild with a new leader. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpankyMcFarland Posted October 2, 2015 Report Share Posted October 2, 2015 harper wont stay very long if he gets minority but will stay long enough to allow the Con party time to get a new leader and allow that person to be PM before calling election. The other parties wont bring down the government in fear of ticking off the electorate by playing politics. But isn't that the game they are supposed to be playing? Without a majority, Harper can only stay PM by avoiding a vote in Parliament. What opponent would feel bad about getting rid of such a person? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
webc5 Posted October 2, 2015 Report Share Posted October 2, 2015 Anything short of a Conservative Majority and Harper is a goner. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ScottM Posted October 2, 2015 Author Report Share Posted October 2, 2015 If I may, I'd like to add another dimension to this discussion. Should any of the leaders go, who would be their likely replacements? Brad Wall strikes me as a logical choice for the Conservatives as the most popular premier in the country, but the timing of the upcoming Saskatchewan election might make that a tough scenario. Peter MacKay probably wouldn't be a bad option either, but with his recent retirement from politics, I kind of doubt he'd come back so soon. Maybe Joe Oliver, then? Olivia Chow comes to mind for the NDP with hopes of reminding the electorate of Jack Layton, but her third place finish in the Toronto mayoral election might hurt her chances. It might be a little soon for her to make the jump from provincial politics to federal, but I'd think Rachel Notley could be a strong candidate as well. Anyone who can turn Alberta orange is obviously a skilled politician. Ralph Goodale is the first name that I think of for the Liberals. He seems to be something of a Teflon Don. He dealt with a scandal and survived. His party was decimated in 2011 and he survived. The fact that he's about to turn 66 might hurt him though. Christy Clark is another thought I have. She defied expectaions in the provincial election a couple of years ago, so I can't help but wonder if she might be able to do the same think on a federal level. If the Liberals are looking for a leader, they'd probably be coming off of a brutal election, so that kind of thing couldn't hurt. She might also help them grow outside of the Vancouver area. Of course, that's all assuming that any of those people would even be interested in running for the leadership. I'm just thinking of who I might want to recruit were I in the position of the members of those parties. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
angrypenguin Posted October 2, 2015 Report Share Posted October 2, 2015 Anything short of a Conservative Majority and Harper is a goner. Harper's a smart cookie. I have faith that he'll find something to keep him in power. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bryan Posted October 2, 2015 Report Share Posted October 2, 2015 It will be interesting to see what happens in Papineau. The last poll for that riding that I saw had Trudeau running well behind. If he loses his own seat, it seems likely that he'll be the one who steps down first. But isn't that the game they are supposed to be playing? Without a majority, Harper can only stay PM by avoiding a vote in Parliament. What opponent would feel bad about getting rid of such a person? The other parties won't be able to afford to vote against the CPC for quite a while. Even with a thin minority, Harper would be safe for at least a year. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bonam Posted October 2, 2015 Report Share Posted October 2, 2015 Me? I don't think so. He'll want to retire soon enough to give a new leader a chance to get established. He says he'll stay on 4 years with a majority, but I doubt it. He'll likely announce his resignation after two years and step down at the third year to give the new leader a year or so. Why? Harper is still young and by all accounts he seems to enjoy governing, if not campaigning. If he wins a majority now (unlikely given the polls) he may well not only stay for the 4 years but lead the party into the 2019 election as well... he's still got a few more terms to go if he wants to set a record for the longest serving PM! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Machjo Posted October 2, 2015 Report Share Posted October 2, 2015 One scenario that would force them all to resign is if they were caught together in a threesome Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpankyMcFarland Posted October 2, 2015 Report Share Posted October 2, 2015 Harper's a smart cookie. I have faith that he'll find something to keep him in power. You have faith that a person supported by a minority of voters and MPs could hang onto power? Why bother having elections? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bryan Posted October 2, 2015 Report Share Posted October 2, 2015 You have faith that a person supported by a minority of voters and MPs could hang onto power? Why bother having elections? To see who has more support than the others. Everyone else so far has had even less support than him. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpankyMcFarland Posted October 2, 2015 Report Share Posted October 2, 2015 (edited) To see who has more support than the others. Everyone else so far has had even less support than him. Four left wing parties. One right wing party. The left wing vote is larger. Conservatives are a minority in this country as they are well aware. Their views are different from the majority. And if you can only survive by avoiding votes in Parliament, you are not really playing the game, are you? Edited October 2, 2015 by SpankyMcFarland Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpankyMcFarland Posted October 2, 2015 Report Share Posted October 2, 2015 Brad Wall strikes me as a logical choice for the Conservatives as the most popular premier in the country, but the timing of the upcoming Saskatchewan election might make that a tough scenario. Peter MacKay probably wouldn't be a bad option either, but with his recent retirement from politics, I kind of doubt he'd come back so soon. Maybe Joe Oliver, then? Olivia Chow comes to mind for the NDP with hopes of reminding the electorate of Jack Layton, but her third place finish in the Toronto mayoral election might hurt her chances. It might be a little soon for her to make the jump from provincial politics to federal, but I'd think Rachel Notley could be a strong candidate as well. Anyone who can turn Alberta orange is obviously a skilled politician. Ralph Goodale is the first name that I think of for the Liberals. He seems to be something of a Teflon Don. He dealt with a scandal and survived. His party was decimated in 2011 and he survived. The fact that he's about to turn 66 might hurt him though. Christy Clark is another thought I have. She defied expectaions in the provincial election a couple of years ago, so I can't help but wonder if she might be able to do the same think on a federal level. If the Liberals are looking for a leader, they'd probably be coming off of a brutal election, so that kind of thing couldn't hurt. She might also help them grow outside of the Vancouver area. Well, Mr. Oliver would have to check out of the nursing home first, Olivia Chow is a little charisma-challenged and Ralph Goodale? Maybe a rival for Paul Martin perhaps. We need more young people, not geezers. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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