Is ISIS a Threat to the West? An Expanding Enigma.

[Keepitsimple]

An excerpt from a summation of CNN's video presentation - Blindsided: How ISIS shook the world

........................................................

Of course, one of the big questions has been: Is ISIS a threat to the West?

The group's leaders declare that it is. But their ambitions appear to be mostly centered on their Arab enemies, on building a caliphate in Iraq and Syria. They understand, of course, that to be Terror Group No. 1, they must battle the country that is the world's No. 1 power -- the United States. With that in mind, they seek such a confrontation and hope that the United States will come to the Middle East and fight them on their terms, on their terrain. Still, while they are opportunists, and they ask and hope that their followers act in America, their main focus is not to come here -- they want Americans to go there.

Yet no matter how one rates the level of the threat ISIS poses, the group has changed the nature of terror. The leaders of ISIS have recognized that above all, they are a messaging machine, which in turn becomes a recruitment machine.

This means that the key is not what happens on the ground, but on the airwaves and in the bits and bytes of the Internet. And ISIS does this better than anyone before them because while their gruesome videos would seem a repulsive turn-off -- and are to most -- they still work on the web. The shock and awe they produce makes them go viral, and thus are seen by tens of millions. That ensures that these videos attract those utterly alienated young men -- a few thousand among the world's 1.6 billion Muslims -- who seek revenge, glory and gore.

Unfortunately, as long as those young Muslim men, scattered across the globe, are attracted to ISIS and stream to its cause, the group presents the world with a danger that is impossible to fully assess but is one that grows by the month.

Link: http://www.cnn.com/2015/04/27/opinions/zakaria-isis-shakes-world/?iid=ob_videoleaf_organicfooter&iref=obnetwork

Edited May 14, 2015 by Keepitsimple

[Freddy]

The west is a threat to itself.

[Je suis Omar]

Droning on and on about these virtually nonexistent threats is obviously the greatest threat to the west.

It allows unthinking, conceited people to become better sheeple. When they should be dwelling on the fact that their governments are scaring the shit out of them for nothing.

But these rocket scientists miss that, forgetting that their same governments are responsible for the deaths of millions, for the destruction of hundreds of millions homes, lives and happiness.

They forget that their same governments are responsible for terrorism that has been going on for over a century.

Look at the big push to retaliate after 911. But these same sheeple can't seem to fathom that others might feel the same way.

The depths of the delusion is phantasmagorical.

Edited May 14, 2015 by Je suis Omar

[Black Dog]

Sheeple is the free space on the Kook Bingo card.

[dre]

Hopefully we will learn from this lesson. ISIL is the DIRECT result of our misguided policies, created by the ill-conceived and poorly executed invasion of Iraq.

This was an easily predictable outcome... At some point we need to smarten up, but unfortunately stupid is a pretty hard thing to fix.

[Big Guy]

To Keepitsimple - Thank you for referencing that documentary. I did watch it (postponed by a week) and found it very informative. The perception we have of what is happening in ISIS controlled areas is certainly different from the reality on the ground. I do understand that the German journalist was accompanied everywhere he went and was in danger of losing his head if he lost his way.

Video of ISIS parking enforcement cops and thriving markets shows another angle to this conflict. It seems pretty obvious that much of the local population (which is Sunni) is supporting this Sunni ISIS. I had suspected since the start that these videos of beheading and burning were an attempt to goad the West into an ISIS trap - to fight them there and on their terms. So far we have not fallen for it but I do not trust some of our leaders.

I notice that Rand Paul, a current candidate for President has stated that the Iraq is no better off than it was under Saddam. Jeb Bush even admits that he would not have gone into Iraq. Perhaps there is hope for us after all.

I do not think that ISIS or ISIL (which I believe will eventually become reality) is a military threat to the West. I believe that our involvement in that area has created chaos and turmoil and has dissolved the previous power structure. I also believe that eventually, those folks will redraw boundaries based on their differences in culture, religion and history - if allowed to do so.

What we think is best for them may not be what they think is best for them.

Let them decide.

[dre]

To Keepitsimple - Thank you for referencing that documentary. I did watch it (postponed by a week) and found it very informative. The perception we have of what is happening in ISIS controlled areas is certainly different from the reality on the ground. I do understand that the German journalist was accompanied everywhere he went and was in danger of losing his head if he lost his way.

Video of ISIS parking enforcement cops and thriving markets shows another angle to this conflict. It seems pretty obvious that much of the local population (which is Sunni) is supporting this Sunni ISIS. I had suspected since the start that these videos of beheading and burning were an attempt to goad the West into an ISIS trap - to fight them there and on their terms. So far we have not fallen for it but I do not trust some of our leaders.

I notice that Rand Paul, a current candidate for President has stated that the Iraq is no better off than it was under Saddam. Jeb Bush even admits that he would not have gone into Iraq. Perhaps there is hope for us after all.

I do not think that ISIS or ISIL (which I believe will eventually become reality) is a military threat to the West. I believe that our involvement in that area has created chaos and turmoil and has dissolved the previous power structure. I also believe that eventually, those folks will redraw boundaries based on their differences in culture, religion and history - if allowed to do so.

What we think is best for them may not be what they think is best for them.

Let them decide.

The best policy for us is probably containment, and the development of a more constructive relationship with Iran. We should also reverse course on any efforts to encourage or aid in the toppling of Assad, which would be an unmitigated disaster for all non-Sunni Syrians (Christians and Allawites in particular), and a massive victory for ISIL.

Luckily the terrority that ISIL has its sights set on is surrounded by bigger and tougher Muslim states that are at least a bit less crazy (Iran, Saudi Arabia, Turkey, etc)

We also need to give up on trying to maintain the arbitrary and nonsensical borders of Syria and Iraq, and let the Sunni have their own state.

[Moonlight Graham]

The Middle-East and Africa were screwed indefinitely the moment we started dividing up their territories based on completely arbitrary borders with no regard to culture, religion, language differences etc.

[Moonlight Graham]

ISIS is a threat now that we engaged them. Before that, it only had the potential to be a threat, and was a much bigger threat to regional powers in the ME than the West. The only thing ISIS threatens in the near-term in terms of Western security is control over oil.

ISIS did not target to kill Westerners until after we started bombing them. Obama authorized bombing ISIS in Iraq (because of "humanitarian atrocities") on Aug. 7, 2015 and bombs started falling Aug. 8th. On Aug. 12 ISIS emailed US journalist James Foley's parents threatening his life in retaliation for the US bombings. The first Western beheading by ISIS (Foley) occurred on Aug. 19th.

Canadian Parliament voted to authorize airstrikes against ISIS in Iraq on Oct. 7, 2014. On Oct. 20th two soldiers in Quebec were attacked by an ISIS supporter, and on Oct. 22 came the infamous attacks on Parliament Hill.

[Keepitsimple]

Was there ever a chance that Sadam would have been able to retain power if he was a "benevolent dictator" - with state-sponsored education and policies that fostered cultural unification? My money would have been on him being assassinated pretty quickly. What a mess. Going into Iraq in the manner that was done has proven to be a failure to put it mildly.......but the Arab awakening has at least given huge swaths of Middle East populations a glimpse of what freedom and democracy could look like. When the burning rubble and bodies are removed, we can only hope that the people will start down the path of their own model of democracy. Education and information are the building blocks. I'm mostly comfortable that we've learned from our mistakes - that we're now helping them clear the crap out of the way and leave them to their own nation-building. There's always hope.

[dre]

Was there ever a chance that Sadam would have been able to retain power if he was a "benevolent dictator" - with state-sponsored education and policies that fostered cultural unification? My money would have been on him being assassinated pretty quickly.

Yeah there was an excellent chance. He had already been doing it for almost 40 years... Mostly by using force and violence to marginalize the Iranian backed Shia groups that were put into power during "OPERATION: OOPS DIDNT THINK THAT THROUGH!!" (The Iraq invasion). Its a nearly impossible feat to government a country that has both large Shia, and large Sunni population, but the Baathists had it figured out pretty good.

And we havent learned any lesson. We are now sponsoring anti Assad groups in Syria and if he falls we will have the same power vacuum there that we created in Iraq.

that we're now helping them clear the crap out of the way and leave them to their own nation-building. There's always hope.

There is ZERO hope that our current policies will do anything besides foster the proliferation of groups like ISIL. We are doing NOTHING to address the underlying issues, and by preventing the natural partitioning of Iraq and Syria and trying to keep those arbitrary and misguided borders intact we will continue to enflame sectarian tensions, and continue grow Irans power and influence in the region.

It would be impossible to even dream up a more stupid course of action.

[Moonlight Graham]

And we havent learned any lesson. We are now sponsoring anti Assad groups in Syria and if he falls we will have the same power vacuum there that we created in Iraq.

Exactly. What we're doing in Syria has similarities to what the West did in Iraq and Libya. Sometimes a moderate dictator that's a nuisance but has stable control of a country is better than an fundamentalist/extremist Islamist regime taking power or major instability in that country caused by civil war.