Warmest Year Ever - What Does That Actually Mean?

[Keepitsimple]

As the earth moves through it's latest warming cycle, we've recently been alerted to the fact that 2014 was the "warmest year ever" - after being warned for a couple of months that it would be the warmest ever. What perspective can we put on this claim? Here's a couple of tidbits:

1) "Warmest ever" means going back to 1880 - when meaningful temperature gathering gained a tentative foothold

2) It therefore excludes the Midievel Warming Period - a period lasting hundreds of years where vineyards were commonplace in England and Vikings settled in Greenland and Newfoundland - before abandoningthose posts due to the onset of the ensuing Global Cooling Period.

3) The use of "adjustments" and "homogenization" to temperature readings - which without fail have made the Earlier modern years cooler and the later years warmer - the justification for such being dubious at best. As a result, the Dust-bowl years of the 30's have been reduced from some of the hottest years to an afterthought.

4) And of course it's warming and of course the warmest years will be the most current. The Earth has been continually warming since we exited the last ice age - with long periods of warming and cooling - and shorter periods therein - but always warming in the bigger picture.

But how about some specifics about the claim?

1) The claim applies to land and sea global temperatures combined. It's actually the fourth warmest for land temperatures.

2) Here's the last 10 years of land temperature anomolies - the amount (celcius) by which the Global temperature exceeds the average for the 20th century (1901-2000). Notice how we're talking about miniscule ups and downs measured in hundreths of degrees celcius. Does that really warrant a cry from the rooftops?

2005,1.04

2006,0.90

2007,1.08

2008,0.85

2009,0.86

2010,1.06

2011,0.88

2012,0.89

2013,0.99

2014,1.00

3) Measuring the history of ocean temperatures is completely foolish. Prior to the introduction of modern technology in the 80's, temperatures were taken through buckets of water in the shipping lanes. And yet, we have the arrogance to include ocean temperatures going back to 1880.

Have a look here for the raw data - click on "anomolies and index data".

Link: https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/monitoring-references/faq/anomalies.php

[eyeball]

Warmest Year Ever - What Does That Actually Mean?

Not much, which I suspect is why it's called the Warmest Year Ever Recorded.

[facetiousness]

Notice the difference?

[/facetiousness]

[Shady]

It's like clockwork, they announce it every year, despite the data. Now NOAA's saying they're 38% sure it was the warmest. What does that even mean, 38% sure? I swear they're just making it up as they go along, just for the headlines.

[The_Squid]

I had no idea that we had an actual climatologist on the forum!! Very cool....

[eyeball]

It's a mystery to me why the IPCC isn't recruiting the talent we see here on a regular basis.

[bush_cheney2004]

I like it warmer...haven't used my snow blower in years. The squirrels like it too.

[-1=e^ipi]

It's like clockwork, they announce it every year, despite the data. Now NOAA's saying they're 38% sure it was the warmest. What does that even mean, 38% sure? I swear they're just making it up as they go along, just for the headlines.

It means that 2014 is in statistical tie with other years, so they don't know for sure if it is the warmest, 2nd warmest or 3rd warmest.

[On Guard for Thee]

I like it warmer...haven't used my snow blower in years. The squirrels like it too.

Speaking of squirrells...

[BubberMiley]

They're thinking their pants might stay around their waists now that Waldo has been eliminated.

[poochy]

It's like clockwork, they announce it every year, despite the data. Now NOAA's saying they're 38% sure it was the warmest. What does that even mean, 38% sure? I swear they're just making it up as they go along, just for the headlines.

Watch the blasphemy. You're upsetting the faithful.

Edited January 22, 2015 by poochy

[On Guard for Thee]

I had no idea that we had an actual climatologist on the forum!! Very cool....

Oh yeah, who needs NOAA and or NASA when we have our own "expert"

[-1=e^ipi]

Oh yeah, who needs NOAA and or NASA when we have our own "expert"

How about, use the evidence directly and don't use appeal to authority fallacies when deciding what is true with respect to the Earth's temperature record?

I have already explained why this claim is nonsense in the other thread.

http://www.mapleleafweb.com/forums/topic/21713-ipcc-exposed/page-6

http://theresilientearth.com/?q=content/2014-annus-horribilus-climate-alarmists

[eyeball]

So instead of using your evidence to blow this fallacy and the authorities away you're using it for no other purpose than to rub a few lefties noses in an error that could be responsible for billions and maybe even trillions of dollars of unnecessary taxation, mitigation, adaptation etc?

What am I missing here?