2015 Federal Election Prediction

[Topaz]

One journalist thinks that Harper could call for a surprise spring election and not wait for 2015. Harper has called back Dimitri Soudas, to be exe. director of the party. IF, the Harper did call an election election in 2014, could it be he is worried of the out come from the senate scandal and what will come out if a court hearing is called for?? http://www2.macleans.ca/2013/12/07/dimitri-soudas-and-stephen-harpers-future/

[overthere]

One journalist thinks that Harper could call for a surprise spring election and not wait for 2015. Harper has called back Dimitri Soudas, to be exe. director of the party. IF, the Harper did call an election election in 2014, could it be he is worried of the out come from the senate scandal and what will come out if a court hearing is called for?? http://www2.macleans.ca/2013/12/07/dimitri-soudas-and-stephen-harpers-future/

The only reason I could see Harper calling an election early is if he thinks or knows the economy is headed downhill sharply.

He can campaign now on Canada having survived a recession in relatively good shape. If that changes, he's done like dinner.

He also knows that the Liberals have yet to raise big bucks off the allure of Trudeaus hairstyle- but they wili sooner or later.

My take on the Senate scandal is that many voters don't care. Nothing remotely approaches Adscam, the new gold standard in sleaze.

[cybercoma]

Harper's going to call an early election to kill Michael Chong's reform bill.

[g_bambino]

Doubt that he would break his own law and call an early election.

So many misconceptions in one short sentence...

[g_bambino]

Harper's going to call an early election to kill Michael Chong's reform bill.

You think? All that just to stop a bill? And, could what that bill proposes not then become an election issue?

My suspicion is that, if Harper wanted the bill dead, he'd ask for a prorogation.

[cybercoma]

You think? All that just to stop a bill? And, could what that bill proposes not then become an election issue?

My suspicion is that, if Harper wanted the bill dead, he'd ask for a prorogation.

To my understanding, proroguing parliament wouldn't kill it once it's in the Senate. This way they can pass the Reform Act, making it look like it's something they support, then kill it without the voters being aware that this is what they're doing. The vast majority of people don't look at what bills die when an election is called. Only analysts and pundits are interested in these details. Edited December 9, 2013 by cybercoma

[jacee]

Harper's going to call an early election to kill Michael Chong's reform bill.

He'll lose.

.

[jacee]

You think? All that just to stop a bill? And, could what that bill proposes not then become an election issue?

My suspicion is that, if Harper wanted the bill dead, he'd ask for a prorogation.

He won't get one.

.

[cybercoma]

He'll lose.

.

No he won't. The Left is still severely divided. If anything, he'll end up with a CPC minority, given the new constituencies.

[jacee]

No he won't. The Left is still severely divided. If anything, he'll end up with a CPC minority, given the new constituencies.

5 bucks?

.

[cybercoma]

It's too early to make predictions and you know that. Anything at this point is a mere guess, but if the election were held today that's how the cookie would crumble.

Edited December 9, 2013 by cybercoma

[Guest Derek L]

No he won't. The Left is still severely divided. If anything, he'll end up with a CPC minority, given the new constituencies.

They don’t come into effect until May 1st……which would put the election sometime in June…..I really fail to see an advantage, even if Chong’s bill (likely) passes it won’t come into effect until post-2015.………

With that said, I could fathom the election being moved up to Spring/early Summer of 2015.……

Edited December 9, 2013 by Derek L

[GostHacked]

Sooner or later, Trudeau will actually have to speak about matters of substance. The few times that he has spoken in QP, he reads from a script and is completely uninspiring. As for the polls, when Canadians finally get to actually listen to him, he'll have nowhere to go but down. The media have created an illusionary character in Trudeau. "He's in over his head" is not an attack.....it's a clear statement of fact, obvious to any non-partisan who pays attention. Marc Garneau had it right - but the Liberal Backroom Boys told him to cool it. Liberals will once again pay the price for trying to take the "easy" way back to power.

The best way to test them is to ask questions that make them uncomfortable to see how they handle it. If they can do stuff unscripted and without being a broken record, then I may listen.

Trudeau Jr. is not one I'd vote for.

And if you see what Obama has done to the USA, are we really sure that we want the same here? We have that enough with Harper. Hope and change? More like hope for change.

[jacee]

It's too early to make predictions and you know that. Anything at this point is a mere guess, but if the election were held today that's how the cookie would crumble.

We have a 'sea change' happening.

http://www.mapleleafweb.com/forums/topic/23190-the-reform-act-2013-mp-michael-chong/?p=934767

The Conservative Party is fractured and Canadian readers of Macleans are 75% in favour of Chong's democratic reform. Only 10% opposed, and they're likely paid Harper/Party hacks surfing the net for polls.

Harper won't win again. Canadians have lost their taste for PM control of democracy.

.

.

Edited December 9, 2013 by jacee

[PIK]

The bill needs major work. That bill as is ,is a complete joke. Harper will not call a early election, he does not need to. Trudeau's ship is coming to it end, now that he has said he will not fight for the north, is another nail in his coffin. People are realizing picking trudeau has nothing to do with the people or the country, it is just a quick fix to get back to power. I wonder if the party kept him from joining the others on the S.A trip. How embarressing that would be for the libs. And maybe if chretien had a tighter grip on his people, his gov would not be going down as one of the worst.

Edited December 9, 2013 by PIK

[Guest Derek L]

We have a 'sea change' happening.

http://www.mapleleafweb.com/forums/topic/23190-the-reform-act-2013-mp-michael-chong/?p=934767

The Conservative Party is fractured and Canadian readers of Macleans are 75% in favour of Chong's democratic reform. Only 10% opposed, and they're likely paid Harper/Party hacks surfing the net for polls.

Harper won't win again. Canadians have lost their taste for PM control of democracy.

.

.

You think it wise to judge the health of the CPC by an internal poll put on by Macleans?

[PIK]

But jacee the 10% know what is in the bill. You have to dig deeper then the headlines. But as you get older you will get wiser.

[waldo]

But jacee the 10% know what is in the bill. You have to dig deeper then the headlines. But as you get older you will get wiser.

what's your excuse?

[Keepitsimple]

Warren Kinsella is a diehard, unapologetic Liberal. Here's what he had to say about Michael Chong's bill......and yes, it's in The Sun. Kinsella is allowed to write his dissenting opinions in this Conservative paper.....

Whether Michael Chong and his editorial board cheerleader squad approve or not, the fact is this: Most Canadians make important political choices based upon who the leader is.

Not policy, and certainly not backbench nobodies.

The leader.

Some will argue the position of prime minister is not referred to in the Constitution, and that is true.

Some will say party leaders are not elected directly by the people, and that is also true.

But leadership, and leaders, are the things that mostly determine how they vote.

So, if Michael Chong doesn't have confidence in Stephen Harper, there is nothing stopping him from getting up in caucus next Wednesday - nothing - and asking for a leadership confidence vote.

He won't.

Like the Martinites, Chong wants to do indirectly what he apparently lacks the nerve to do directly.

That makes his bill eminently dislikeable.

And (sadly) it makes Michael Chong a little less likeable, too.

Link: http://www.sunnewsnetwork.ca/sunnews/straighttalk/archives/2013/12/20131208-085459.html

[Smallc]

Well that confirms my opinion of Kinsella. This bill allows for leaders to be held to account, and for constituencies to pick their own candidates...no more parachutes.

[Guest Derek L]

Well that confirms my opinion of Kinsella. This bill allows for leaders to be held to account, and for constituencies to pick their own candidates...no more parachutes.

Agreed, and I’m glad to see it has largely bipartisan support.

[cybercoma]

But jacee the 10% know what is in the bill. You have to dig deeper then the headlines. But as you get older you will get wiser.

The irony is that jacee is likely older than you.

[cybercoma]

Well that confirms my opinion of Kinsella. This bill allows for leaders to be held to account, and for constituencies to pick their own candidates...no more parachutes.

Kinsella seems to entirely ignore the reason this bill even exists. He's right that Michael Chong won't stand up in caucus tomorrow. What Kinsella fails to do is ask WHY Michael Chong won't do it.

[Smallc]

Kinsella seems to entirely ignore the reason this bill even exists. He's right that Michael Chong won't stand up in caucus tomorrow. What Kinsella fails to do is ask WHY Michael Chong won't do it.

Exactly...

[g_bambino]

To my understanding, proroguing parliament wouldn't kill it once it's in the Senate.

No, it'll die if it's still in the Senate; a proroation closes both houses of parliament. Bills also can go back and forth between the Senate and the House of Commons; I don't think it would be workable to have legislation from the previous session coming back to get mixed in with the new session's business in the Commons.