TheNewTeddy Posted October 31, 2012 Report Posted October 31, 2012 screaming out LIAR ... Calling people names no matter how true does nothing In other words "Stop catching my/our lies" Quote Feel free to contact me outside the forums. Add "TheNewTeddy" to Twitter, Facebook, or Hotmail to reach me!
punked Posted October 31, 2012 Report Posted October 31, 2012 In other words "Stop catching my/our lies" That is how I read it. Quote
Shady Posted October 31, 2012 Report Posted October 31, 2012 Punked's trotting out the same tired and old lines from the 2010 mid-term elections... News Week have the Dems with a 5 point advantage in the generic ballot. In Iowa and Ohio where early voting has started Dems are returning ballots 5 to 1 compared to Republicans. They will fight hard and lose some seats but for Republicans to set the bar so high they were dumb to do so. Early voting, blah blah blah. How'd that election turn out? Oh right, Republicans winning at a record level, never before seen in the history of the country. Quote
cybercoma Posted November 1, 2012 Report Posted November 1, 2012 Let's look at the predictions by pollsters that use state-by-state polls. These give a better indication of which candidates will win particular states and therefore get the electoral votes there. As of Oct. 31 FiveThirtyEight: O-300, R-238 Electoral-Vote: O-280, R-206, T-52 Votamatic: O-332, R-206 HuffPost Pollster: O-277, R-206, T-55 RCP: O-201, R-191, T-146 TPM: O-303, R-191, T-44 Princeton Election Consortium: O-303, R-235 I wonder why Shady only ever refers to RCP.... hmm. Quote
Shady Posted November 1, 2012 Report Posted November 1, 2012 Did you know that Romneys lead with independents is larger than Obamas lead with independents in '08? Yep. Quote
Sleipnir Posted November 1, 2012 Report Posted November 1, 2012 (edited) As of Oct. 31 FiveThirtyEight: O-300, R-238 Electoral-Vote: O-280, R-206, T-52 Votamatic: O-332, R-206 HuffPost Pollster: O-277, R-206, T-55 RCP: O-201, R-191, T-146 TPM: O-303, R-191, T-44 Princeton Election Consortium: O-303, R-235 I wonder why Shady only ever refers to RCP.... hmm. Did you know that Romneys lead with independents is larger than Obamas lead with independents in '08? Yep. I'm sorry but this is hilarious, like playing ping pong with without the ball. Edited November 1, 2012 by Sleipnir Quote "All you need in this life is ignorance and confidence; then success is sure." - Mark Twain
Mr.Canada Posted November 1, 2012 Report Posted November 1, 2012 Obama is just a caretaker President. The Country will look the same as it does today in 4 years if Obama gets in again. I think that Hilary Clinton will run in 2016 on the Dem ticket and win. Quote "You are scum for insinuating that isn't the case you snake." -William Ashley Canadian Immigration Reform Blog
Sleipnir Posted November 2, 2012 Report Posted November 2, 2012 http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/11/02/nov-1-the-simple-case-for-saying-obama-is-the-favorite/ A must read for anything trying to debate the merit of national polls versus state polls. Quote "All you need in this life is ignorance and confidence; then success is sure." - Mark Twain
Wayward Son Posted November 3, 2012 Report Posted November 3, 2012 I think that Hilary Clinton will run in 2016 on the Dem ticket and win. Clinton would be 69 in 2016 which would make her the second oldest person elected president (Reagan also 69 when elected, was a couple months older than Hilary would be). So I have my doubts, but certainly Hilary is far more driven than most. Quote
Shady Posted November 3, 2012 Report Posted November 3, 2012 (edited) Big news from the Washington Post. House Republicans may actually add to their majority on Election Dayhttp://www.washingto...on-day/?print=1 Which means, the turnout of the election is going to look similar to that of 2010. Which spells doom for Obama. Edited November 3, 2012 by Shady Quote
Shady Posted November 3, 2012 Report Posted November 3, 2012 I saw some pretty amazing stats tonight. As of today, in 2012, 547,000 Democrats have voted early in Ohio, compared to 470,000 Republicans. Sounds pretty good for Obama right? In 2008, at the same point in time, 712,000 Democrats had voted early in Ohio, compared to 372,000 Republicans. That's 165,000 less Democrats this time around, and 98,000 more Republicans. On election day of 2008, Obama actually lost Ohio by 78,000 votes to John McCain, but because of the early vote, still won the state by 262,000 votes. However, this time around, the decrease in Democrats early vote, and the increase in Republican early vote, is a swing of 263,000 votes. Totalling more than Obama's entire 2008 margin of victory. So in order to win Ohio, he actually needs to win the election day vote. Which he couldn't even do against McCain 4 years ago. Obama is toast! I know, I know, 80.9%! That math is fuzzy. My math is REAL. As in REAL votes. Quote
Smallc Posted November 3, 2012 Report Posted November 3, 2012 (edited) 81.4%, actually. Obama is projected to win Ohio, but doesn't actually need to.... Edited November 3, 2012 by Smallc Quote
cybercoma Posted November 3, 2012 Report Posted November 3, 2012 (edited) 81.4% and counting is based on state-by-state polling and electoral college votes. All of this stuff about advanced polling and turnout is secondary to that information. Edited November 3, 2012 by cybercoma Quote
Sleipnir Posted November 3, 2012 Report Posted November 3, 2012 (edited) Big news from the Washington Post. [/size] Which means, the turnout of the election is going to look similar to that of 2010. Which spells doom for Obama. So it'll basically be what it already has been - majority repub in the house, majority demo in the senate? How would that spell doom for Obama? Edited November 3, 2012 by Sleipnir Quote "All you need in this life is ignorance and confidence; then success is sure." - Mark Twain
cybercoma Posted November 3, 2012 Report Posted November 3, 2012 Because the Republicans right now are not governing in good faith. Their goal is not to work together and find amicable solutions, but to dig their heels in and "win." Winning is antithetical to democracy. Quote
Shady Posted November 3, 2012 Report Posted November 3, 2012 81.4%, actually. Obama is projected to win Ohio, but doesn't actually need to.... It's no surprise that a big Obama supporter has the Obama odds of winning at 80%. But that's not real votes. I'm talking about REAL votes. Your 80% number will mean as much on Wednesday after Obama loses as it does now. Quote
Shady Posted November 3, 2012 Report Posted November 3, 2012 81.4% and counting is based on state-by-state polling and electoral college votes. All of this stuff about advanced polling and turnout is secondary to that information. Nope, it's actual REAL data. Nate Silver picks and chooses what polls he uses, and which ones he doesn't. REAL votes mean REAL votes. Quote
cybercoma Posted November 3, 2012 Report Posted November 3, 2012 It's no surprise that a big Obama supporter has the Obama odds of winning at 80%. But that's not real votes. I'm talking about REAL votes. Your 80% number will mean as much on Wednesday after Obama loses as it does now. Nope, it's actual REAL data. Nate Silver picks and chooses what polls he uses, and which ones he doesn't. REAL votes mean REAL votes. So the stuff below is just Obama supporters and not based on "actual REAL data"? Princeton publishes invalid and unreliable research, eh? As of Oct. 31 FiveThirtyEight: O-300, R-238 Electoral-Vote: O-280, R-206, T-52 Votamatic: O-332, R-206 HuffPost Pollster: O-277, R-206, T-55 RCP: O-201, R-191, T-146 TPM: O-303, R-191, T-44 Princeton Election Consortium: O-303, R-235 Quote
cybercoma Posted November 3, 2012 Report Posted November 3, 2012 Shady, it doesn't seem you have any education whatsoever in statistics. Quote
Shady Posted November 3, 2012 Report Posted November 3, 2012 Let's see, Huffington Post, FiveThirtyEight, and Talking Points Memo are all leftwing blogs/sites. RCP and Electoral-Vote are legitimate. Never heard of Votamatic. Who runs that? Sounds pretty sketchy. Votamatic, seriously? That's what they call themselves? Quote
Shady Posted November 3, 2012 Report Posted November 3, 2012 I saw some pretty amazing stats tonight. As of today, in 2012, 547,000 Democrats have voted early in Ohio, compared to 470,000 Republicans. Sounds pretty good for Obama right? In 2008, at the same point in time, 712,000 Democrats had voted early in Ohio, compared to 372,000 Republicans. That's 165,000 less Democrats this time around, and 98,000 more Republicans. On election day of 2008, Obama actually lost Ohio by 78,000 votes to John McCain, but because of the early vote, still won the state by 262,000 votes. However, this time around, the decrease in Democrats early vote, and the increase in Republican early vote, is a swing of 263,000 votes. Totalling more than Obama's entire 2008 margin of victory. So in order to win Ohio, he actually needs to win the election day vote. Which he couldn't even do against McCain 4 years ago. Obama is toast! I know, I know, 80.9%! That math is fuzzy. My math is REAL. As in REAL votes. So, do you guys not think a swing of 260,000 votes is at all significant? You're seriously being that in the tank for Obama? Quote
cybercoma Posted November 3, 2012 Report Posted November 3, 2012 Let's see, Huffington Post, FiveThirtyEight, and Talking Points Memo are all leftwing blogs/sites. RCP and Electoral-Vote are legitimate. Never heard of Votamatic. Who runs that? Sounds pretty sketchy. Votamatic, seriously? That's what they call themselves? So your test of validity is that they "sound legitimate" and agree with your ideology? Regardless of how ridiculous that is, did you notice they are almost all in complete agreement? You disregard HuffPost because it's a "liberal blog," but you accept Electoral-Vote, which came to practically the same result. Seriously, this is sad. Quote
cybercoma Posted November 3, 2012 Report Posted November 3, 2012 So, do you guys not think a swing of 260,000 votes is at all significant? You're seriously being that in the tank for Obama? Well, there's a little more than 207,000,000 Americans that are eligible to vote, so...... Quote
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