Quebec Election 2012 -Unpredictable

[August1991]

On my flight from Gdansk to Brussels, I was thinking about the Quebec election - in addition to thinking about Kaliningrad, the Eastern Townships, East Prussia, Slovakia, the Czech Republic and Trudeau's comment about Montreal's West Island becoming the Danzig of the New World.

In a democratic State, elections are a skewed random pick of a government for a few years. In other States, political/social changes can be different.

----

I figure that the election result is truly unpredictable now, although it may come surprisingly into focus during the campaign. This election is "up for grabs". [On aime la vie.]

I can see a Liberal majority/minority, PQ majority/minority or even, after taking LSD, a CAQ majority/minority. This election is a crap shoot.

Why? For most voters, there are many, many reasons to dislike Charest. But Marois is not popular either. Legault has a big ego, a mixed team and policy proposals that kind-of-make-sense but don't.

Critically, Quebec Solidaire will not form a government but it will (like the CAQ) play a crucial role in the election. The QS (and Option Nationale) will draw votes from the PQ. The CAQ will draw votes from the PLQ.

This is an election with unpopular main leaders and third parties which draw votes from the two main parties. In short, it's an election that's hard to predict.

Nevertheless, what is the Internet if I cannot make anonymous comments. Here are three:

1) Charest has set/framed this election as a referendum on the student fee raise. Charest will not say this openly - ever - but that is what he has done. This is wedge politics turned into art. If Charest succeeds, this election will enter the case history of political science.

For those opposed to the student fee rise, you can vote PQ/QS. For those in favour, you can vote PLQ/CAQ. Look at any vote map, polling history and draw conclusions. (Hint: If this election is a referendum, Charest has won the hinterland and split the urban, east Montreal vote.)

2) Why did the federal NDP beat the BQ in 2011? The answer to this question is central to this Quebec provincial election, and even to Quebec itself. At present, there are two opposing theories in Quebec: a) Quebec voters (generally Leftist) wanted to defeat right wing Harper or Quebec voters are tired of the federalist/sovereigntist debate and sought an alternative. This election is not a test of these theories but it will provide more fodder for debate.

3) At least since 1763, and as far as I can remember, Quebec political debates concerned largely nationalism. Maybe now Quebec political debate is about Left/Right. This election is part of a confusing transition. [Je m'en doute.]

Edited August 2, 2012 by August1991

[socialist]

On my flight from Gdansk to Brussels, I was thinking about the Quebec election - in addition to thinking about Kaliningrad, the Eastern Townships, East Prussia, Slovakia, the Czech Republic and Trudeau's comment about Montreal's West Island becoming the Danzig of the New World.

In a democratic State, elections are a skewed random pick of a government for a few years. In other States, political/social changes can be different.

----

I figure that the election result is truly unpredictable now, although it may come surprisingly into focus during the campaign. This election is "up for grabs". [On aime la vie.]

I can see a Liberal majority/minority, PQ majority/minority or even, after taking LSD, a CAQ majority/minority. This election is a crap shoot.

Why? For most voters, there are many, many reasons to dislike Charest. But Marois is not popular either. Legault has a big ego, a mixed team and policy proposals that kind-of-make-sense but don't.

Critically, Quebec Solidaire will not form a government but it will (like the CAQ) play a crucial role in the election. The QS (and Option Nationale) will draw votes from the PQ. The CAQ will draw votes from the PLQ.

This is an election with unpopular main leaders and third parties which draw votes from the two main parties. In short, it's an election that's hard to predict.

Nevertheless, what is the Internet if I cannot make anonymous comments. Here are three:

1) Charest has set/framed this election as a referendum on the student fee raise. Charest will not say this openly - ever - but that is what he has done. This is wedge politics turned into art. If Charest succeeds, this election will enter the case history of political science.

For those opposed to the student fee rise, you can vote PQ/QS. For those in favour, you can vote PLQ/CAQ. Look at any vote map, polling history and draw conclusions. (Hint: If this election is a referendum, Charest has won the hinterland and split the urban, east Montreal vote.)

2) Why did the federal NDP beat the BQ in 2011? The answer to this question is central to this Quebec provincial election, and even to Quebec itself. At present, there are two opposing theories in Quebec: a) Quebec voters (generally Leftist) wanted to defeat right wing Harper or Quebec voters are tired of the federalist/sovereigntist debate and sought an alternative. This election is not a test of these theories but it will provide more fodder for debate.

3) At least since 1763, and as far as I can remember, Quebec political debates concerned largely nationalism. Maybe now Quebec political debate is about Left/Right. This election is part of a confusing transition. [Je m'en doute.]

I know I will be donating to the PQ. They understand the plight of the striking students. They have my support. Charest wants high tuitions creating unequal classes.

[August1991]

Socialist, since you've copied my OP, I guess that I can no longer edit it to combine my 2nd/3rd points into one point. (Yet in effect, they're the same idea).

My 3rd point - the one I was thinking about on the flight from Oslo to Brussels?

3) We benefit from the 1700s Enlightenment, but I don't think we understand democratic politics. People are afraid and they seem to vote for the leader who will protect them.

Edited August 2, 2012 by August1991

[Newfoundlander]

It's amazing that a province of 8 million cannot get a decent leader to run it.

[TheNewTeddy]

If I was there I'd oppose the PQ. While I support lower tuition, the striking students have done more damage to that cause than any other group that I can remember in my lifetime. By supporting the students, they actually oppose lower tuition.

[punked]

If I was there I'd oppose the PQ. While I support lower tuition, the striking students have done more damage to that cause than any other group that I can remember in my lifetime. By supporting the students, they actually oppose lower tuition.

There is a third way centrist option running. If I was in Quebec I would opt for that.

[Newfoundlander]

There is a third way centrist option running. If I was in Quebec I would opt for that.

Which is?

[punked]

Which is?

The CAQ. There is also QS which could be a factor.

[Newfoundlander]

The CAQ. There is also QS which could be a factor.

So you would vote for a party which is often described as centre-right?

[punked]

So you would vote for a party which is often described as centre-right?

I wouldn't vote for a separatist party(My NDP morals make me as strong a federalist as there is in a Democracy) and I wouldn't vote for the Liberals.

[Newfoundlander]

I wouldn't vote for a separatist party(My NDP morals make me as strong a federalist as there is in a Democracy) and I wouldn't vote for the Liberals.

Ok

[punked]

Ok

Like I said sometimes the QS makes sense but they are on the wrong side of history when it comes to the Nation as a whole.

[Newfoundlander]

Like I said sometimes the QS makes sense but they are on the wrong side of history when it comes to the Nation as a whole.

All left wing parties are separatists it seems, with the exception of the Liberals of course.

[punked]

All left wing parties are separatists it seems, with the exception of the Liberals of course.

Well I mean the Liberals are lead by the Deputy Prime Minister of the old Conservative party. I don't think you can call them left wing, in fact they are about as right as you get in this great country.

[Newfoundlander]

Well I mean the Liberals are lead by the Deputy Prime Minister of the old Conservative party. I don't think you can call them left wing, in fact they are about as right as you get in this great country.

Really? He doesn't seem to have governed to conservatively, though I haven't followed that closely or anything.

[punked]

Really? He doesn't seem to have governed to conservatively, though I haven't followed that closely or anything.

To be fair to you, governing Conservatively in Quebec is on a different spectrum then say governing Conservatively in BC or even Manitoba so that is a fair statement I guess.

[Newfoundlander]

To be fair to you, governing Conservatively in Quebec is on a different spectrum then say governing Conservatively in BC or even Manitoba so that is a fair statement I guess.

Very true.

[Topaz]

I'm surprised the NDP haven't thought of a NDP in Quebec.

[Newfoundlander]

I'm surprised the NDP haven't thought of a NDP in Quebec.

Well they tried that, and they'd probably be to afraid they'd come to power.

[madmax]

I can see a Liberal majority/minority, PQ majority/minority or even, after taking LSD, a CAQ majority/minority. This election is a crap shoot.

ROTFLOL....

[August1991]

It's amazing that a province of 8 million cannot get a decent leader to run,even a uote]Ab=nd yet, according to ROC, the French Quebecres

For the rest of us, the Movies with a danced wic - the density of swelves.

[August1991]

It's amazing that a province of 8 million cannot get a decent leader to run,even a uote]Ab=nd yet, according to ROC, the French Quebecres

For the rest of us, the Movies with a danced wic - the density of swelves.

grRsYunsgef? WTF?

----

I've been far from Montreal for the past week or so, out of Quebec and away from the news/Internet.

By rights, Marois should own this election. Instead, looking at the first polls, the PQ seems to have hit a 35% (or so) plafond. (Huh?)

Polls? It seems obvious to me that there may be a "tipping point": when the Anglo/federalist Montreal voters decide that the PLQ is not the vehicle to defeat the PQ. If this tipping point arrives, then the PLQ will collapse and the CAQ will ride a wave.

So, I see three possible scenarios:

1) Three way split -either PLQ/PQ minority government

2) PLQ/PQ at 35-40% each, with CAQ at 20% -likely PQ majority

3) PLQ collapse, CAQ in power

The third possibility requires that Legault and the CAQ "team" avoid gaffes in the next three weeks. (If that happens, I'll pay for a free LSD hit for all.)

Charest designed this election to be a wedge election on tuition fees/le Plateau - despite never talking about this. Legault has possibly turned it into a wedge election between people who want to argue sovereignty/federalism and people who don't - while talking about corruption.

-----

Last point: If you want to know how the PQ feels about things in this election, look to Jean-François Lisée. He's not Cartesian; he's an emotive.

Edited August 11, 2012 by August1991

[PIK]

I know I will be donating to the PQ. They understand the plight of the striking students. They have my support. Charest wants high tuitions creating unequal classes.

They are using the students, because the students are to fucking stupid to know better. So you get you cheap tuition, but then have to leave quebec to get a job. What do you think the PQ'S stance on language that bombardier will have to do it's business in french, you think they and others will stick around? The PQ is suicide for quebec. Edited August 13, 2012 by PIK

[TheNewTeddy]

The students don't support lower tuition. They just want to have fun making a mess. If they supported lower tuition they'd be campaigning to keep it low, not banging pots and pans and wearing masks. Polls consistently show that lower tuition outpolls the student's actions by far.

[TheNewTeddy]

Quebec has a Vote Compass

http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/quebecvotes2012/features/votecompass.html

My results and thoughts (did it a few days ago, but waiting for someone else to bring it up) are as follows.

PLQ - 59%

CAQ - 55%

PQ - 55%

Grn - 47%

QS - 47%

ON - 46%

Rate the leaders

My top match was the guy I know nothing about (Green leader) probably because I don't know anything positive about any of the others.

position:

near the centre. I'm on the Canada side of the "Identiy" access, which is probably why I'm closer to the PLQ.

if I exclude importance:

PLQ - 59%

CAQ - 59%

Grn - 58%

PQ - 54%

QS - 51%

ON - 44%

Arts

I disagree with all 6 parties; I feel artists should get less funding - though - I would support funding quality artists.

Constitution

I support the idea of a "Quebec Constitution" cause why not. US states have them, why not Canadian provinces. This means I disagree with the PLQ and CAQ

Soverignty

I support an independent Quebec, this puts me in like with the ON, PQ, and QS.

Referendum

This is the single most important issue for me. I do NOT want a referendum in the next 5 years. This puts me in like with the PLQ and CAQ, as well as the Greens.

School boards

I don't understand what is the problem with them.

Language in the workplace

Speak whatever you want. At the local burger joint they speak hindi, and I'm not a racist, so I don't mind. Why should Quebeckers be any different? IE why should they be all racist about it?

French language

Protect my ass.

Anglophone education

Why the hell not?

Protesting more important than public order

Anyone who agrees with this needs to hang their head in shame.

Long gun registry

I agree with all 6 parties; hells yea!

First Nations control

I agree with ON and QS that they should have more control.

Immigration

I say more, the others do not.

Income Taxes

I agree with QS and ON. Much more (only cause much much much more was not an option)

Corporate Taxes

Seems I'm too right-wing even for the CAQ. I picked much less (only cause much much much less was not an option)

...Frankly, income taxes should be like 75% over a certain level, and corporate taxes should be 0%. This would encourage people to, you know, grow the economy, and not waste their money on the crap that rich people buy.