Your Toronto Blue Jays

[overthere]

Bautista is not playing for a contract. That is a future tense, he has already done all he needs to do to get big money, and the Jays are about to lose control of an asset without compensation. That is why there is tension. The jays know there are teams that will give him all or nearly all what he is asking.

Guys on the Jays that are 'playing for contracts' are those that had big years last year for the first time, and need to duplicate or better that to get a whopper on the next one. Goins Pillar Colabello and a couple of the pitchers come to mind .

[Boges]

Bautista is not playing for a contract. That is a future tense, he has already done all he needs to do to get big money, and the Jays are about to lose control of an asset without compensation. That is why there is tension. The jays know there are teams that will give him all or nearly all what he is asking.

Guys on the Jays that are 'playing for contracts' are those that had big years last year for the first time, and need to duplicate or better that to get a whopper on the next one. Goins Pillar Colabello and a couple of the pitchers come to mind .

Any trade for Bautista has to include players that help the Jays win now and not prospects or picks.

If he hits under 20 HRs, hits under .220, Goes for under 100 RBIs it'll be obvious he's on the steep decline already and there's no way he'll get a 5 or 6 year deal.

And he's an RFA so the Jays will get to offer a qualifying offer and receive compensatory pick. A team that's trading for him now have to believe that he's worth 6 years after this season.

Does anyone believe he is?

[overthere]

if if if. future tense. If if if he hits .320 , with 50 homers and wins the World Series MVP.....then we get absolutely nothing for him. In any risk vs reward analysis, that is a complete management failure.

RIGHT NOW they have an asset at the top of his value. No 'ifs' Waiting on acting has no purpose except gaining his services for another year, which is a benefit they already have.. We just witnessed a flurry of UFA trade activity where teams get draft picks at the trade deadline for excellent players like Eric Staal, who is not nearly as dominant in his business as Bautista is in his own.

Sign now or trade now are the only sane options.

When did Bautista become 36, and when did he ask for 6 years?

[Boges]

When did Bautista become 36, and when did he ask for 6 years?

That's the assumption on what it'll take to keep him. I think any prospective trade partner would want to know what it would take to keep Bautista after this season. Otherwise it's a long-term rental situation. Which may be a good way of seeing this season as having his salary come off the payroll isn't nothing.

I received a Bleacher Report notification last night that EE and the team have started negotiation. If a deal is made then we can pretty much forget any idea of Bats staying on for the 2017 season. This team can't afford both players.

[overthere]

That's the assumption on what it'll take to keep him. I think any prospective trade partner would want to know what it would take to keep Bautista after this season. Otherwise it's a long-term rental situation. Which may be a good way of seeing this season as having his salary come off the payroll isn't nothing.

I received a Bleacher Report notification last night that EE and the team have started negotiation. If a deal is made then we can pretty much forget any idea of Bats staying on for the 2017 season. This team can't afford both players.

Not sure what you mean about 6 years, since you yourself state that he is asking for 5 years and $150 million.

That is what I've been saying all along, that they likely cannot afford both beyond this year.

It boils down to this, assuming they are not signing one of them and lets assume it is Baustista: Is it better to just let Bats play out his contract this year and hope we win, knowing that we get next to nothing at the trade deadline, or nothign at all after the season OR trade him now for a decent return of players and /or prospects?

Same applies to EE.

The reason I say trade one of them is that I think the Jays still have a very good shot at winning without one of them, and I hate the idea of getting nothing at all in return for such a valuable asset.

[Boges]

A Peter Gammon article says Bautista is actually asking for 6.

As I said earlier, Bautista had 10/5 Rights. Unless the Dodgers are looking for Bautista, I don't see any rich team willing to take a player like him knowing they'll be in the same spot as Toronto.

If they trade him then fine, but don't assume a failure to trade him is the new ownership's fault. One last productive season is still worth something.

[Guest]

One last productive season is still worth something.

Exactly. Keeping $150M off the payroll after a shot at the series is still a positive. Though, I worried that the new management will feel obligated to overpay for a big bat and fan fav.

[overthere]

Nearly all free agents are overpaid. It is the nature of the beast, in all sports.

But what is 'overpaid' in pro sports?

Paying a lot for an unknown, or paying a lot for somebody at the very top of their game?

[Boges]

The amount isn't the issue as much it's the term he'd demand.

Edited March 4, 2016 by Boges

[overthere]

The amount isn't the issue as much it's the term he'd demand.

Agreed, the term is and will be the concern.

I can see Rogers paying him $25-$30m for 4 years, and I can see him taking that.

He puts bums in seats.

[Boges]

It's not helping EE's trade value that he still hasn't seen action this spring. First with a tooth problem and now with an abdominal strain. Meanwhile Joey Bats is raking in his first few spring appearances.

The problem is, you can't sign both. No successful team can have 5 players making $15 mil or more a season. So if EE gets signed then that's a no go to Bautista.

I'm a fan of Aaron Sanchez being a starter. He's put on 20 lbs of muscle in the off season. I can see him and the Stro Show being a great one-two combo for years to come.

[Boges]

The battle for 5th starter is actually a compelling one.

And pitcher named Gavin Floyd was brought in on the cheap because he had injury troubles and he's competing hard with Aaron Sanchez.

Through Sanchez appears to be the favourite.

It seems as if Hutch and Chavez are going to be after thoughts.

This type of depth at starting pitching is actually quite impressive. If Dickey OR Estrada fall off, there seems to be a capable replacement.

[overthere]

What depth is that?

Usually a quality rotation is defined by having a bevy of proven vets.

I don't see that here, yet.

Stroman has yet to play a season as a starter. Neither has Sanchez. Estrada has had one solid year. Hutchison may not be a major league player in any role. Chavez is a reclamation project. Happ has not had a stellar career. And Dickey has failed to dominate for much of his time in Toronto. Some of their guys are journeymen, at best.

I'd love to to optimistic and hope they are going to dazzle as a agroup, but the Jays need some question marks to step up large to succeed this year.

[Boges]

What depth is that?

Usually a quality rotation is defined by having a bevy of proven vets.

I don't see that here, yet.

Stroman has yet to play a season as a starter. Neither has Sanchez. Estrada has had one solid year. Hutchison may not be a major league player in any role. Chavez is a reclamation project. Happ has not had a stellar career. And Dickey has failed to dominate for much of his time in Toronto. Some of their guys are journeymen, at best.

I'd love to to optimistic and hope they are going to dazzle as a agroup, but the Jays need some question marks to step up large to succeed this year.

Or your continued pessimism.

Stroman has yet to put forward a stretch of undesirable results as a starter. He was the choice over David Price in the playoffs last year.

Dickey has put up 200 innings, or so, every year he's been in Toronto. He's a solid starter on the team. But I will concede, I'm waiting for him to fall of a bit or a lot.

Happ has been a good starter for the Jays, He would have been in the rotation last year had he not been traded for the team's current starting left fielder. His post trade deadline stats last year were as good as David Price last season with the Pirates.

Estrada causes me the most concern as he's not a power pitcher and last season seems like an outlier. But he was arguably the best pitcher in the playoffs last year.

Sanchez could be a star. He's added 20 pounds of muscle and he's looked like an ace this spring.

Chavez, who knows but he can spot start or play in the bullpen.

Ditto with Hutch.

Gavin Floyd might be the biggest surprise as he was picked up off the scrap heap. He is legit competing with Sanchez for the 5th spot.

Edited March 21, 2016 by Boges

[Guest]

Boges, may be a little over-optimistic about the pitching, but enthusiasm isn't unwarranted. I was worried about the rotation going into the spring, but the squad is looking promising. If the team is going to make a run, I think a deal will still have to be made for another big arm, but it is nice to see such a solid squad at this point.

[overthere]

Or your continued pessimism.

Stroman has yet to put forward a stretch of undesirable results as a starter. He was the choice over David Price in the playoffs last year.

Dickey has put up 200 innings, or so, every year he's been in Toronto. He's a solid starter on the team. But I will concede, I'm waiting for him to fall of a bit or a lot.

Happ has been a good starter for the Jays, He would have been in the rotation last year had he not been traded for the team's current starting left fielder. His post trade deadline stats last year were as good as David Price last season with the Pirates.

Estrada causes me the most concern as he's not a power pitcher and last season seems like an outlier. But he was arguably the best pitcher in the playoffs last year.

Sanchez could be a star. He's added 20 pounds of muscle and he's looked like an ace this spring.

Chavez, who knows but he can spot start or play in the bullpen.

Ditto with Hutch.

Gavin Floyd might be the biggest surprise as he was picked up off the scrap heap. He is legit competing with Sanchez for the 5th spot.

You criticize me for what you call pessimism, then repeat what I said about each pitcher.

Well, whatever.

I am not pessimistic. What I said is an accurate comment about the careers to date of each of those people. The Jays pitchers did OK last year, but no better than that and they lost in the playoffs because the Jays pitching floundered against the Royals, who came back and pounded us once too often. Winning teams most often have well rounded, complete games and obviously pitching is what let the Jays down a bit when their hitting was suppressed by: strong pitching.

Has the pitching improved significantly? I think the bullpen is better. Gibbons has more and better options and a solid group of late game pitchers in Osuna, Storen, Cecil and maybe Sanchez for some longer quality relief if he does not start.. Starters? Price was 9-1 last year, Buehrle was 15-8, HUtchison 13-5. None of those guys are starting this year. That is 37 wins to replace. Sroman will hopefully account for some of those, but it is some ground to be made up and I don't wear rose coloured glasses.

[Boges]

Starters? Price was 9-1 last year, Buehrle was 15-8, HUtchison 13-5. None of those guys are starting this year. That is 37 wins to replace. Sroman will hopefully account for some of those, but it is some ground to be made up and I don't wear rose coloured glasses.

Pitcher wins are a meaningless stat. Hutch had historically high run support. You're ignoring Estrada, his season last year was a huge surprise. I believe he had the lowest opposition batting average in the league or close to it.

Happ went 7-2 with a microscopic 1.02 WHIP once he got traded to a contender in the Pirates last season. He'll get even better run support with the Jays.

To me the biggest concern is Dickey, because he can't easily be demoted to bullpen should he start poorly.

The thing about the Jays is that they don't need terrific pitching because of their offence.

[Guest]

To me the biggest concern is Dickey, because he can't easily be demoted to bullpen should he start poorly.

The thing about the Jays is that they don't need terrific pitching because of their offence.

Good point about Dickey; he is useless if he can't, at least, keep them in games. The Jays O does allow for average pitching but only in the regular season. Really good pitching is a necessity if they plan on taking a shot at the World Series.

Edited March 21, 2016 by Guest

[overthere]

Pitcher wins are a meaningless stat. Hutch had historically high run support. You're ignoring Estrada, his season last year was a huge surprise. I believe he had the lowest opposition batting average in the league or close to it.

Happ went 7-2 with a microscopic 1.02 WHIP once he got traded to a contender in the Pirates last season. He'll get even better run support with the Jays.

To me the biggest concern is Dickey, because he can't easily be demoted to bullpen should he start poorly.

The thing about the Jays is that they don't need terrific pitching because of their offence.

Well no. Wins get you a pennant or a playoff spot. I'm not ignoring the 37 wins we need to replicate last years excellent result, I'm the one that pointed it out. Remember?

So can the new starting staff do that? Based on past results and assuming Estrada has another career year, and Dickey does not continue to slowly diminish, and that Stroman actually is an ace and can prove it, and that Happ has a great year, and the Unknown #5....... it is certainly not obvious to me..

The Jays did certainly have great offence , but was I the only one here that noticed it is not enough to win championships? In the end, it failed. More accurately, as most often , pitching is mandatory. And that is why I think we could easily give up a player like EE for example to get a starter. We don't need four cleanup hitters But that window may be closing fast already.

[Boges]

During the playoffs the dearth of bullpen help was obvious. That being said Brett Cecil got injured in Game 1 of the ALDS.

I contend the Game 2 collapse in the ALCS doesn't happen if Cecil was there.

Starting pitching was actually pretty good in the playoffs. There was one blowout in Game 4 of the ALCS with Dickey and some questionable outings from David Price. Estrada and Stroman had excellent post seasons.

[overthere]

Kansas City scored 38 runs in 6 games.

[Boges]

Kansas City scored 38 runs in 6 games.

14 of them in one game.

Game 3 was also high scoring for both teams in a win.

Estrada pitched 2 good games and Price was serviceable in 3 games.

Hard to look at this rotation and assume playoff failure based on last season.

Also keep in mind that the Royals went on to beat a team with 3 of the league's top young pitchers.

Edited March 22, 2016 by Boges

[Boges]

Interesting debate is surfacing about the Jays rotation.

Aaron Sanchez has been nothing but amazing this spring. An argument could be made that he's the second best pitcher on the team right now. But the Jays also brought in Gavin Floyd to compete for a start and he's been pretty good as well.

In a copycat league, where KC won the World Series with a largely mediocre starting rotation but an excellent bullpen, is Sanchez more valuable in the pen?

It'll be a tough pill for Sanchez to swallow if he came to spring with the best stuff he's ever had but still ends up being a middle reliever.

[overthere]

14 of them in one game.

Game 3 was also high scoring for both teams in a win.

Estrada pitched 2 good games and Price was serviceable in 3 games.

Hard to look at this rotation and assume playoff failure based on last season.

Also keep in mind that the Royals went on to beat a team with 3 of the league's top young pitchers.

Of course, I did not predict playoff failure. I pointed out a weakness of the team last year, a weakness that unquestionably contributed to their demise. And I questioned their actions in fixing that weakness. Their bullpen looks better. Their starters are still not known, since they have added a couple of journeymen and are counting heaviily on those plughorses and a couple of strong babies.

Last year the Jays started the year with a team packed with rookies and it didn't work, unless their .500 record at midseason was 'working'. The starters this year have a large element of hope and luck attached, since Buehrle and Price are gone

[Boges]

Of course, I did not predict playoff failure. I pointed out a weakness of the team last year, a weakness that unquestionably contributed to their demise. And I questioned their actions in fixing that weakness. Their bullpen looks better. Their starters are still not known, since they have added a couple of journeymen and are counting heaviily on those plughorses and a couple of strong babies.

Last year the Jays started the year with a team packed with rookies and it didn't work, unless their .500 record at midseason was 'working'. The starters this year have a large element of hope and luck attached, since Buehrle and Price are gone

Well their success post trade deadline can certainly be attributed to bringing in Price. But that could just mean they actually had a quality starter. You could argue that success would have happened without having to bring in one of the best starters in the league that later got a 7 year contract. Much of last year they were bringing in tomato cans as their 5th starter. Remember Daniel Norris, Scott Copeland, Matt Boyd and Felix Dubront?

Dickey got much better and Stroman essentially replaced Hutch in September.

So this year Price gets replaced by Happ and Buerle gets replaced by Sanchez. You'd think Happ is a downgrade even though he was as good as Price at the end of last season but Sanchez is a HUGE upgrade. Dickey, Stroman and Estrada are back from the team that was winning 70% of their games.

Estrada has been dealing with back trouble. It's possible that Floyd actually starts the season as the 5th starter.

Breaking news today is that Sanchez has been named a starter and Hutch was sent to Buffalo. So you have 6 starters up with the team and 2 in Buffalo ready to go (Chavez and Hutch). The starter depth is rather deep, MUCH deeper than last year's 50-50 Jays pre-trade deadline.

Edited March 28, 2016 by Boges