Your Toronto Blue Jays

Boges · June 2, 2016

I don't think Barney has ever played anything but infield: SS and 2B- as a pro.

Carrerra is their only outfield backup now, and he is not the greatest fielder . Smoak has never played outfield, and EE has justa few games there. I think they are both too slow for the outfield anyway. But if either EE or Smoak gets injured, I could see Bautista moving in to play 1B again(or DH) and Barney in RF. It is hard to take Barneys bat out of the game when he is hitting at this pace.

You don't have to take it out until Tulo comes back. We'll see if he's still at this pace in a few weeks. Let Goins play whenever a lefty is pitching. Goins' good game Monday came a little too late because Barney has trumped him at every go.

I just can't see them benching Tulo. So it's a battle between Travis and Barney who plays second base. Shocking when you consider he was picked up off the scrap heap when Tulo go injured last September and only has a 4th string in fielding option on an expanded 40-man roster.

Edited June 2, 2016 by Boges

overthere · June 2, 2016

Barney is a better fielder than Travis. So is Goins(better than Travis). Travis has not yet lit it up yet at the plate- .259 is OK but he has had very few AB. The absence of Tulo has been kind of lucky for the Jays. They have not missed him in the field or at the plate, and it gives them a chance to assess Travis in particular. It is quite possible he ends up in Buffalo for a while. If he catches fire soon, see ya Goins. I don't see Barney going anywhwere soon- it will be Goins or Travis, and it depends on Travis.

Its a good kind of problem to have for the Jays.

And yes, that was a fine play that Travis made last night when the ball went past Smoak and -surprise- Travis was right there. Sanchez was also very good in that he did not stop running to 1B to catch the throw. Coaches love that shit: nobody gives up on the play. I like it too.

Boges · June 5, 2016

Another series win. Who'd have thought Stroman would be the weakest starter?

Estrada takes a No Hitter to the 8th but the bullpen (Osuna this time) almost coughed the game up.

JoDo thumb injury makes Gibby call up Domingez instead of having Goins play regularly at shortstop, Travis at second and Barney at 3rd for a second game. Damning indictment of GoGo.

Boges · June 8, 2016

Disappointing series loss in Detroit. Happ seems to be largely awesome but he'll put out the occasional awful effort. Last night's loss squandered an amazing start by Aaron Sanchez. The offence totally dropped the ball even though the bullpen ultimately let the game get away.

They woke up this afternoon comfortably beating Detroit 7-2 with another decent start by Dickey. Also the bullpen put in 3 shutout innings, which is nice.

Now they get several games against the surging Orioles. The test against New York and Boston was important and they went 9-3, well here's the next test.

Edited June 8, 2016 by Boges

overthere · June 9, 2016

Disappointing series loss in Detroit. Happ seems to be largely awesome but he'll put out the occasional awful effort. Last night's loss squandered an amazing start by Aaron Sanchez. The offence totally dropped the ball even though the bullpen ultimately let the game get away.

They woke up this afternoon comfortably beating Detroit 7-2 with another decent start by Dickey. Also the bullpen put in 3 shutout innings, which is nice.

Now they get several games against the surging Orioles. The test against New York and Boston was important and they went 9-3, well here's the next test.

The offence and Gibbons dropped the ball. Again. 11 LOB. We keep finding new ways to lose. The 11-0 loss was a throwaway, every team has those once in a while. The 3-2 loss was a warning. Contrast that with Ausmus, who faced a totally dominant for 8 innings, then won the game with apparent ease by manufacturing a few runs. By contrast, we have Bautista swinging for the fences with runners at 2 and 3 with nobody out-when a ground ball anywhere scores a run. We have Encarnacion putting in an utterly disinterested AB in nearly the same situation. The team lacks direction that wins close games. We have too many players who see themselves as heroes instead of parts of a team.

Everybody is content and cheerful when we hit 3 or 4 homers in a game. Its exciting, but as our one and only game strategy it won't win a championship.

overthere · June 9, 2016

why aren't we seeing Barney at leadoff?

Travis, Pillar, Saunders and now Bautista have played themselves out of that position so far. Why not Barney?

Edited June 9, 2016 by overthere

Boges · June 9, 2016

why aren't we seeing Barney at leadoff?

Travis, Pillar, Saunders and now Bautista have played themselves out of that position so far. Why not Barney?

Cuz they're winning with Bats there, and he gets on base all the time.

Travis actually hasn't been hitting all that well. Tulo may come back Sunday.

overthere · June 9, 2016

Yes, that is why Travis won't be leading off. he is not up for starting player, or leadoff for now. Who does that leave?

The stats for Bautista tell the tale, he does not get on base from leadoff. In the last 15 games, both his OBP and OPS are well under his season averages in both. The experiment is failed.

Barney has much higher BA and slightly better OBP than Bautista. It is baffling but predictable that Gibbons persists. He does not want to hurt a veterans feelings by telling him where and how he wants the player team to play. Barney has excellent defence at second or short and a hot hand at the plate. He should be starting every day and leading off. Any other team.......any other manager......

Boges · June 9, 2016

I'm happy with Barney's performance this year. But his sample size isn't that great as an everyday player yet. We know that you get better pitches to hit at the bottom of the order anyway.

I'm anxiously looking to see how Tulo performs coming back.

overthere · June 9, 2016

I'm happy with Barney's performance this year. But his sample size isn't that great as an everyday player yet. We know that you get better pitches to hit at the bottom of the order anyway.

I'm anxiously looking to see how Tulo performs coming back.

And leadoff guys are challenged by pitchers because they don't want runners on base for the heart of the order, for the big RBI guys(like Bautista). So why isn't Bautusta seeing a big bump in OBP and BA at leadoff, instead of a slump in both? The stats don't lie: the winning streak was in spite of Bats, not because of him.

Barney is the best bet at leadoff right now, it is getting toward the bizarre that Gibbons won't play him there. He has nothing to prove at defence, and his offence has been great. What is there to lose, given that nobody else has played worth crap there so far?

Regarding sample size: you had anointed Stroman as the Jays ace despite a tiny MLB record. Why not Barney, who is a proven excellent defender, and has earned a starting job off that alone? When Tulo comes back, why would Gibbons play anybody but Barney at second? Travis likely needs to go back to AAA for a while, and Goins is fine defender but nearly an automatic out at the plate.

Boges · June 13, 2016

Man! Taking 3 of 4 from Baltimore almost felt like a disappointing weekend. I'm actually shocked they held on today. The bats largely came alive but every starting pitcher scuffled against the potent Baltimore lineup. Edwin is on fire. The bullpen actually did fairly well. This Jason Grilli guy isn't doing so bad either.

Considering Bautista couldn't play the final 3 games of the series, due to injury, and they still put up impressive offense, this could be the best sign yet that the bats are finally starting to wake up.

Gotta make hay against the Phillies before going back to Baltimore. Hopefully Camden Yards isn't the bandbox Rogers Centre played like this past weekend.

Also, they're currently tied for the second wildcard spot. The tie on top of the AL East has the first wild card spot too. So they're definitely in this race going forward.

Edited June 13, 2016 by Boges

Boges · June 15, 2016

Yesterday Gibby said that Aaron Sanchez will definitely be moved to the bullpen this season.

If that's the case, who replaces him Chavez, Floyd or do they bring Hutch up eventually?

overthere · June 15, 2016

Nothing has changed. The Jays still have two serious problems to address before they can approach being a championship team. Bullpen and Gibbons.

Is Atkins still the GM? Shapiro involved at all? Haven't heard a peep from them for ages. The team is teetering still, and if the Jays miss the playoffs plus lose one or both of the heart of their lineup for no return- both men better be sure their current hiding place remains well hidden from Jays fans.

'

And this might well be the last shot for the Jays at winning anything, for a long time. On the 'major free agent screwup list' the Jays are running 50% as of today. Bautista is having a 'meh' season so far, so it is possible they can sign him though unlikely. Is his slightly weak season a sign that the eyars are catching up? Do they want an old geezer at huge money on a long term deal? Or is it just a blip? Encarnacion is having a fine year, so he has no reason at all to sign with anybody before free agency. That means the Jays will get very little in trade for either of them now, if they decide they cannot win it all this year. Two rental guys.

I expect this 'management' group knows they missed the boat on both these guys, they had to either sign or trade them pre season and now they are writing scripts to cover all eventualities.

Boges · June 15, 2016

Jays are teetering?

They currently have the second Wildcard spot, 2 behind the first and 3 behind the AL East lead. They played AL East teams for 16 games and went 12-4. That includes only Ls 2 games in 7 games against the teams ahead of them.

The offence has largely woken up.

Currently, and I highlight currently. EE is far more valuable than Bautista. No way a team gives Bats a 5 year deal after this season. I'd like to see them re-sign EE.

Edited June 15, 2016 by Boges

overthere · June 15, 2016

Jays are teetering?

They currently have the second Wildcard spot, 2 behind the first and 3 behind the AL East lead. They played AL East teams for 16 games and went 12-4. That includes only lose 2 games in 7 games against the teams ahead of them.

The offence has largely woken up.

Currently, and I highlight currently. EE is far more valuable than Bautista. No way a team gives him a 5 year deal after this season. I'd like to see them re-sign EE.

Yet, hanging on to a wild card spot is not what you clearly expected. They are teetering.

Yes, EE is valuable, but not so much to the Jays except for what he does or does not do right now. His value for the future is quickly approaching nothing. Obviously. Every game he is great in is another game closer to free agency, and one nothc lower on what you get for him as a rental for a contending team. Now explain why Encarnacion would sign with the Jays, unless they offer him absolutely monster money and big term? Yes, I get that the fans love him and that 'Management ' wants him to stay, but why would he sign now with the Jays except for stupid money?

And again, did you learn nothing from last year, for example, regarding the value of offence? Balanced teams are required to win championships. The Jays still have some big holes. Grilli doesn't fill them. For example, the bullpen has no lefties now. Loup is hopeless, Cecil was hopeless until he got hurt, Venditti is looking like a novelty item, Scott Diamond sayonara. And the rest....... meh. Sanchez will help the bullpen, and hurt the starters. Net zero, at best.

On another topic, do the Jays not have any catchers at all in their system that can hit better than Thole? He is at .107, an nearly automatic out and is often a double play candidate . Dickey has a career .175 average. he can hit off the bench, something that Thole is never asked to do because he is awful. He only catches once every five days and is not very good at that either. He is like having a starting pitcher that never wins or contributes to a win.

Boges · June 15, 2016

So the bullpen and the backup catcher. Those are the holes. Can't disagree. We'll see if Cecil can come on late like he did last year. And Grilli has been pretty good, so has Chavez lately. But the starters have levelled off a bit, but they're still winning because they've been scoring runs.

Other teams have holes. You think Baltimore and Boston have anything but mediocre starting pitching? At least the Jays starting line-up has largely been solid. Both teams have been built largely on what worked for Toronto last year.

Edited June 15, 2016 by Boges

overthere · June 15, 2016

No, the catcher problem is a minor hole compared to the bullpen and the way we play(Gibbons). (and perhaps the best move that AA made as GM was signing Russ Martin)

Grilli is not the saviour. His most memorable moment was in the 9th against the Orioles, when he came into the game with a 2 run lead. He walked two, plus one hit. It took a great catch by Carrera off a near grand slam to unclench everybodys sphincter slightly, then Grilli struck out Schoop who luckily swung at every pitch so we could squeak out a win..

The model is not the Orioles or BoSox. The model is the Royals and Giants. You know, winners. They all had good pitching and a balanced attack. Modern baseball offences have three key elements: power, speed and situational strategy. The Jays at present have only one of the three, sporadically. We won't ever have a lot of team speed, so it must be replaced somewhat by strategy, and there we are also far short . The Royals beat us easily last year, and one reason was they employed every weapon possible to generate runs. There are many examples of this, but one that sticks out was a play in the AL final by Lorenzo Cain. Runners first and second and he shows bunt. #3 hitter, power guy, showing bunt! Can you imagine Bautista, Mr Macho, even pretending to bunt? Donaldson comes in a step or two, just in case. Next pitch, they steal third. Next pitch after that, a sac fly scores a run. It was all planned and all executed. We just do not do that sort of thing very often, and when we do try our players fail to execute often.

Boges · June 15, 2016

I wouldn't say the Royals won easily. Game 1 was a somewhat comfortable victory. Game 2 was lost due to a David Price meltdown. Game 4 was a blowout. Game 6 was a classic.

The Royals came one inning from being eliminated by Houston. They're somewhat scuffling this year without Ben Zobrist.

The truth is that post season success is difficult to predict. Lots of random stuff happens. The Cardinals were far and away the best team in the MLB last year, lost to a Cubs team that had a potent lineup and great pitching, they lost to a Mets team with some of the best starting pitching we've seen. Then the Royals, beat them.

Do we predict that the Cubs are easily the favourite to win the WS this year? How about a Rangers team with Yu Darvish?

overthere · June 15, 2016

The Royals beat us handily. They also beat the Mets handily, playing the same all around game. Adequate starting pitching, strong bullpen, relentless and varied attack. They got stronger the further they went.

The team that wins will be again the team that can do all that is required, has a balance of offence and defence with few weaknesses.. In its present format and style, it will not be the Jays unless they make some changes. It is too bad, because they actually do have a shot at it.

You have to win three series. Getting there is not random, nor is it luck.

Boges · June 15, 2016

http://ftw.usatoday.com/2013/09/harvard-study-shows-mlb-playoffs-mostly-random

As we expected, the NBA seems to produce postseason champions most aligned with regular season performance. The long format of the seven-game series and reduced likelihood of upsets on account of the high number of possessions have resulted in the best regular season team winning eight of the nineteen possible championships….

What is remarkable is just how bad the MLB playoffs really are. Owing to the length of its 162 game season, one might think that regular season performance would actually be a fairly good indicator -– better, for example, than in the NFL where strength of schedule can have a huge impact – of the overall quality of a team. Given this fairly reasonable assumption, if you chose the eight best regular season teams, or even eight of the top ten because you require four from each league, and then just asked each team to draw straws to determine the World Series, the average winning team would be better determined than by the current system. Only three times has the best team from the regular season ended up winning the World Series.

Now the Royals were the best team in the AL, only by a game or two to the Jays, and the Jays laid up in the last week of the season, conceding two games against Baltimore and a game against Tampa.

Far and away the best team in the MLB last year was St. Louis and they didn't even make the NLCS.

You mentioned the Giants earlier. They won in 2014 but were 6 games behind the Dodgers in the NL West.

Seems you have to be a much different team to win in the MLB playoffs as opposed to during the regular season.

Are the Cubs a lock to win the World Series this year?

Edited June 15, 2016 by Boges

Boges · June 16, 2016

Marco Estrada's numbers are competitive with the likes of Clayton Kershaw and Jake Arietta. It's crazy that a guy in his 30's is pitching like this. He's worth the money he got. . . so far.

Goins and Travis both had great games last night. Barney is pushing everyone to compete for the starting spot when Tulo comes back. They can't bench Tulo. Will they keep 4 infielders?

Edited June 16, 2016 by Boges

overthere · June 16, 2016

100 games to go, more or less. Nobody is a lock to win or to lose, except for a few teams that clearly won't contend.

That was not my point. My point is that the Jays did not and could not win with their game last year. And they have not mended those holes this year, not yet anyway. Estrada has been worth every cent, and he was not hugely expensive in any case. That was a good dollar amount and term for the Jays. Pitching is stupid expensive, especially starters.

It is a bit crowded on the bench now, with only 7 in the bullpen. Cecil won;t be back until July perhaps, so they don't have to decide anything yet. They could go to 8 at that point, but who would they keep? Girodo is more likely to be sent down whenever Cecil gets back. Or perhaps the Jays will have made a deal for bullpen help by then. Sanchez will end up there, but not for quite a while.

The Jays have 6 on the bench, and two of them are not going anywhere: Thole and Carrera- their backup catcher and the only career outfielder. When Tulo comes back, they will send Burns down.

That still leaves a logjam at second. Narrowing ti down is hard to do from a fielding perspective: all three of Goins Travis and Barney are all reliable or better, all arer in the .984 to .989 range. Barney is the most versatile, playing 2B, ss or 3B. Goins might have a tiny edge for best arm. Travis might be the one with the worst range at 2B. But ... hard to pick a fielder. None of them has played much or any outfield, except Goins who has a few MLB games there.

So batting..... Barney has easily been the best by a wide margin this year. Travis was really good last year, and is showing definite signs of life now: but limited size sample both years. Goins hit well last year, but his career average is below Barneys, and this year he is .100 points behind him in BA.

The Jays will send Burns down when Tulo comes back, and don't have to decide on who plays 2B yet, or who stats on the roster yet- room for all right now. But if they acquire a reliever and need roster space, I think it will be Goins who goes to Buffalo. Or gets traded. His fielding cannot be faulted, but his hitting...... For example, I just don't see the Jays using him as a pinch hitter, but both Barney and Travis could be. You cannot get rid of somebody as hot at the plate as Barney, and Travis and his bat is a player for the future for the Jays.

It is not really a terrible problem to have, too many decent players!

Boges · June 16, 2016

Everyime you think Goins is done he puts in a performance like last night, granted most of the hitters did well last night. A positive for him is he's a lefty. I wish Goins could play outfield but then Carrera isn't shabby either.

Edited June 16, 2016 by Boges

overthere · June 16, 2016

Everyime you think Goins is done he puts in a performance like last night, granted most of the hitters did well last night. A positive for him is he's a lefty. I wish Goins could play outfield but then Carrera isn't shabby either.

Gibbons is a step ahead of you- Goins played LF a couple games ago and has played the OF before, not much but some. And you are right about the value of a lefty bat, which can be in short supply on the Jays.

I really don't think anybody wants Goins 'gone'. But in a head to head competition, he comes out a close third to Travis and Barney at this time. Its a shame , because he stepped into the fulltime 2B job last year and played really well.

And again, I think his roster spot is OK until and if the Jays go back to 8 in the bullpen- and nobody else gets injured.

Boges · June 16, 2016

Gibbons is a step ahead of you- Goins played LF a couple games ago and has played the OF before, not much but some. And you are right about the value of a lefty bat, which can be in short supply on the Jays.

I really don't think anybody wants Goins 'gone'. But in a head to head competition, he comes out a close third to Travis and Barney at this time. Its a shame , because he stepped into the fulltime 2B job last year and played really well.

And again, I think his roster spot is OK until and if the Jays go back to 8 in the bullpen- and nobody else gets injured.

Dan Shulman was on the Fan 590 and he speculated that putting Goins in there was mainly because the game was a laugher and Michael Saunders went out with an injury.