International Elections

[-TSS-]

Not a nice result but very expected and to a degree an understandable one.

[TheNewTeddy]

I decided to use the map to try to estimate what the election would have been like if Israel had FPTP.

Jerusalem

4 - Likud

4 - Torrah

West Bank

1 - Torrah

2 - Jewish

1 - Likud

Arab Areas

6 - Islamist

6 - Hadash

Strength Areas

3 - Torrah

2 - Labour (if they are lucky)

2 - Shas (if they are also lucky)

And an estimated

37 - Likud

37 - Lapid

Plus an estimated

15 - Likud

As the areas Lapid won were all close, but the areas Likud won were by larger margins.

Result:

57 - Likud

37 - Lapid

8 - Torrah

6 - Islamist

6 - Hadash

2 - Jewish

2 - Labour

2 - Shas

Estimated of course.

If only half the seats were FPTP, and the rest Paralell (as proposed by some)

-Parties with "Strength Areas" are hurt the most by this, sa those areas end up less and less concentrated.

-Parties in other areas only end up winning half the seats, as, the seats are halved.

-I should also do the likely realistic thing, and try to gerrymander a few of the arab seats away.

Jerusalem

2 - Likud

2 - Torrah

West Bank

1 - Likud

1 - Jewish

Arab Areas

3 - Hadash

An estimated

22 - Likud

22 - Lapid

And an estimated

7 - Likud

For the following results:

32 - Likud

22 - Lapid

3 - Hadash

2 - Torrah

1 - Jewish

Half the PR results:

16 - Likud

9 - Lapid

8 - Labour

6 - Shas

5 - Jewish

3 - Torrah

3 - Meretz

3 - Liberal

3 - Islamist

2 - Hadash

1 - Balad

1 - Kadima

Combined results:

48 - Likud

31 - Lapid

8 - Labour

6 - Shas

5 - Jewish

5 - Torrah

5 - Hadash

3 - Meretz

3 - Liberal

3 - Islamist

1 - Balad

1 - Kadima

The reality is, however, that this system would change how people vote, draw them to the larger parties. Not to mention such a change would likely also result in the upping of the vote threshold. My estimate for an actual election run on these results would be as follows:

55 - Likud

35 - Lapid

9 - Unified Arab

7 - Labour

6 - Shas

4 - Torrah

4 - Jewish

Which would actually be a bit less stable than the Knesset that was elected.

[TheNewTeddy]

Good news everyone!

The Islamists have lost a seat in the final counting, that seat will go to the Jewish party. Final results are thus as follows:

21 - Likud (In a Conservative alliance)

19 - Yesh Atid (AKA Lapid)

15 - Avoda (AKA Labour)

12 - Jewish (AKA Jewish Home)

11 - Shas (The Orthodox Party)

10 - Yisrael Beitanu (In a Conservative alliance)

7 - Torrah (United Torrah Judaism)

6 - Hatanuah (Livni's "Liberals")

6 - Meretz (Progressives)

4 - UAL/Taal (Islamist)

4 - Hadash (Jewish/Arab/Communist)

3 - Balad (Arab Nationalist)

2 - Kadima (Kadima)

I've included a picture explaining how Israeli's vote:

Edited January 24, 2013 by TheNewTeddy

[TheNewTeddy]

Labour now says it will join a coalition, but, only if it is drowned in other moderates. Their preference (and I presume this is without Leiberman's party) is for the following

Likud - 21

Lapid - 19

Labour - 15

Hatnuah - 6

Kadima - 2

This would give them 63 seats, a majority.

Meanwhile, over in Italy (yes, there are still other countries!)

Not much has changed. The average of the last 2 polls is as follows:

37.3% - Socialist

28.3% - Conservative

14.5% - Moderate

12.8% - Populist

4.4% - Radical

Things are pretty static. Then again, things were static for the longest time in Israel, but the end results did not exactly match the projections.

[Hudson Jones]

Labour now says it will join a coalition, but, only if it is drowned in other moderates. Their preference (and I presume this is without Leiberman's party) is for the following

Likud - 21

Lapid - 19

Labour - 15

Hatnuah - 6

Kadima - 2

This would give them 63 seats, a majority.

The issue here is that only 2 members of Likud have 'verbally' accepted some form of a Palestinian state. One of those is Bibi. Even his vision of a Palestinian state would be difficult to accept as it being an actual Palestinian state. He wants a 'de-militarilized' state, with no control over air, the borders, living in cantons.

Many Likud members were elected based on an extreme stance on the Palestinian state issue. This would be like expecting the Republican members to sign on and accept gay marriage.

So we will see how much the other parties can compromise their platform in order to partner up with Likud to create this so-called moderate coalition.

[-TSS-]

I'm amazed that the Israeli elections has inspired people to this many replies. Perhaps it is true that Israel is an important country.

As for the election itself, it was safe for Netanyahu to call an early election as it was clear from the start that there could not be any majority-coalition which wouldn't include himself as PM. His best campaign-organiser has been without any doubt Hamas. Without them he wouldn't enjoy such popularity.

[TheNewTeddy]

The issue here is that only 2 members of Likud have 'verbally' accepted some form of a Palestinian state. One of those is Bibi. Even his vision of a Palestinian state would be difficult to accept as it being an actual Palestinian state. He wants a 'de-militarilized' state, with no control over air, the borders, living in cantons.

Many Likud members were elected based on an extreme stance on the Palestinian state issue. This would be like expecting the Republican members to sign on and accept gay marriage.

So we will see how much the other parties can compromise their platform in order to partner up with Likud to create this so-called moderate coalition.

Kadima set out to build the barrier, which, would have made this:

https://maps.google.ca/maps/ms?authuser=0&vps=2&hl=en&ie=UTF8&oe=UTF8&msa=0&msid=214668381355121949879.0004d349473069069f564

the final border.

I have my suspicious that Bibi would be generally willing to accept this, but, with military control over Palestine; something that Kadima would have been willing to live without.

Bennet however, leader of Jewish Home, wants to keep the "powers of the palestinian state" to what they have now.

[TheNewTeddy]

In the Czech Republic, social democrat Milos Zeman has been elected as President.

map:

New elections for March have been added.

[TheNewTeddy]

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-21222341

It seems Berlusconi has praised Mussolini on Holocaust day.

Regardless, the latest polls are as follows:

35.77% Socialist

27.85% Conservative

14.32% Moderate

13.47% Populist

4.82% Radical

[TheNewTeddy]

Next elections are in the tiny countries of Lichtenstein and Monaco, which combined, have a population of 72,000 (split almost evenly between the two) and a combined net area of 162 square KM (almost all of it in Lichtenstein) Compare this to Vancouver with an area of 114, and Markham with an area of 212. Compare also to Milton Ontario with a population of 84,000 and Red Deer with a population of 90,000

In Monaco, the two main parties are Liberal and Conservative. The Liberals managed to win the 2003 election, and were re-elected in 2008.

In Lichtenstein the Liberals managed to win a slight majority in the last election, but sit in coalition with the Conservatives. The opposition Greens have a single seat.

Elections occur on Sunday.

Edited January 29, 2013 by TheNewTeddy

[TheNewTeddy]

3rd - http://en.wikipedia...._election,_2013 - Liechtenstein

10th - http://en.wikipedia...._election,_2013 - Monaco

17th - http://en.wikipedia...._election,_2013 - Cyprus

17th - http://en.wikipedia...._election,_2013 - Ecuador

18th - http://en.wikipedia...._election,_2013 - Armenia

25th - http://en.wikipedia....eneral_election ITALY

MARCH

4th - http://en.wikipedia...._election,_2013 - Kenya*

9th - Western Australia

11th - http://en.wikipedia....eferendum,_2013 - Falklands, referendum*

APRIL

7th - Montenegro

27th - Iceland

Countries in ALLCAPS will get focus by me, while those with an asterisk* after them will get a "minor focus" (similar to Romania or Lower Saxony)

Coming up (over the next month or two) I'm going to be doing some history on elections in various nations (IE most countries in Europe [non-soviet nations with over 1 million, plus, some soviet puppets that had democracies prior to occupation], plus Israel, Japan, and Australia)

A preview:

German election, 1912. Black = Moderate Conservative while Red = Socialist. The other Blue parties are various flavours of Conservative. Of interesting note is Brown. These are Anti-Semetic parties. One member elected in this parliament would go on to serve as the NAZI governor of Hesse, and, in fact, survive the war, and be "denazified" http://de.wikipedia....erdinand_Werner (google translate is your friend!)

Edited February 7, 2013 by TheNewTeddy

[jbg]

In Monaco, the two main parties are Liberal and Conservative. The Liberals managed to win the 2003 election, and were re-elected in 2008.

In Lichtenstein the Liberals managed to win a slight majority in the last election, but sit in coalition with the Conservatives. The opposition Greens have a single seat.

Elections occur on Sunday.

World safety and security hinge largely on these elections.

[TheNewTeddy]

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-21257765

Here's an interesting story about the upcoming election in Zimbabwe. Here are some quotes from it:

"Zimbabwe's Finance Minister Tendai Biti has said that the country only had $217 (£138) left in its public account last week after paying civil servants."

"Mr Biti told the BBC he made the revelation in order to emphasise that the government was unable to finance elections, not that it was insolvent."

[TheNewTeddy]

Monaco's election takes place on the 10th.

Also, a complete and utter shocker in Liechtenstein!

First of all, lets examine why:

Nobody gives a hoot about Liechtenstein.

Now the what:

The results were as follows:

10 - Conservatives

8 - Liberals

4 - "The Independents"

3 - Progressives

The Independents are a party of people without a whip. I've read the profiles of two of their new MPs and one is clearly a leftist while the other is clearly a rightist. The only thing they have in common is a distaste of how the government is handling Austerity. I expect the Conservatives will find Independents to work with, and rule that way.

Either way, considering the only interesting thing about Liechtenstein is that their crown prince's son will become the Jacobite pretender to the English throne, I don't expect to do any updates about this country for another 4 years at minimum.

[TheNewTeddy]

Italy Update:

34.70% Socialist

29.24% Conservative

15.35% Populist

13.13% Moderate

4.63% Radical

[TheNewTeddy]

Note that I will be following the election of the new Pope (Leader) of tiny Vatican City, located in Rome. The Holy See, as the country is sometimes called, is the world's smallest country in terms of size and population, but it's leader also leads the world's largest religious sect (Catholicism).

Elections will not be conducted using rules found elsewhere. There is an Electoral College consisting of 117 high-ranking church officials (Cardinals) who are under the age of 80. 2 of these Cardinals may turn 80 before the election is complete. A Candidate will require 78 votes (of 117) to be elected as the new Pontiff (Pope)

Election results are not officially announced, but speculation will be abound. I will try to weed though this information and come to you with the most accurate data I can find on who the candidates are (Papabile) and what if any news is available about voting as it is ongoing (usually little to none)

[TheNewTeddy]

After a few hours of research, I've determined these 12 cardinals to be the most likely to become the next Pope. Many of them are on media Papabile lists, but not all:

Canada:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Marc_Ouellet

Brazil:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Odilo_Scherer

Hungary:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/P%C3%A9ter_Erd%C5%91

Italy:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Angelo_Bagnasco

Argentina:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Leonardo_Sandri

Mexico:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Norberto_Rivera_Carrera

Venezuela:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jorge_Urosa

Hondouras:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/%C3%93scar_Andr%C3%A9s_Rodr%C3%ADguez_Maradiaga

Poland:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Zenon_Grocholewski

France:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Philippe_Barbarin

Ghana:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Peter_Turkson

Philipines:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Luis_Antonio_Tagle

[Guest]

No Yorkshiremen. How do they ever expect to get a decent Pope?

[TheNewTeddy]

After further research these are the 4 men I can not rule out for some various reason. Of course the Cardinal Electors may not consider any of my rule outs to be their rule outs, but I'm trying to think like they do.

http://en.wikipedia....ki/Marc_Ouellet

Marc Ouellet

Canada

Pros: Very good in English, that plus technology could spread the message.. "Not from the USA" "Understands the USA" -IE Canadian. From the "New World".

Cons: Could be seen as pandering to the things outlined above

-

-

-

http://en.wikipedia....éter_ErdÅ'

Peter Erdo

Hungary

Pros: Able administrator, Experienced as Cardinal, Known for speaking out but not being controversial

Cons: First name "Peter" could play into the "Prophesy of the Popes"

-

-

-

http://en.wikipedia...._Rivera_Carrera

Norberto Rivera

Mexico

Pros: Very telegenic/good with media. Very outspoken. Charismatic, from the "New World"

Cons: Perhaps too outspoken

-

-

-

http://en.wikipedia....s_Antonio_Tagle

Luis Tagle

Philipines

Pros: Telegenic/Good with media. Seems open to technology. From Asia, "Ethnic"

Cons: From Asia, "Ethic"

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

At this time I'd bet on Rivera, with Tagle in second, and Erdo in third.

edit

Seems than Ouellet's English

Is not as good as Tagle's English (SEE BELOW)

Can not find videos of the other two speaking English.

Edited February 13, 2013 by TheNewTeddy

[TheNewTeddy]

After seeing all of them in action, I'm placing my 'bet' with Cardinal Luis Tagle, from the Philippines, to be the next Pope.

My official projection for the Vatican election: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eu4ooS5H8sA Philippines' Luis Tagle to become next Pope. Long conclave, 10 bals?

Edited February 13, 2013 by TheNewTeddy

[cybercoma]

I believe Tagle is too new as a Cardinal (he was appointed by Benedict XVI) and the fact that he's Filipino may put off some of the Cardinals. It might be a bit much for a bunch of old white people to get their heads around an Asian Pope.

[TheNewTeddy]

Most Popes had been cardinals for 5 years prior to becoming Pope.

Also, I've been reading media reports from outside Canada, and they all agree without exception that Oulette is where the "smart money" is. All the Canadian news reports, however, suggest other names and only bring him up in passing.

I reserve the right to change my top pick prior to the start of the conclave. But my top 4 and top 12 are not going to change.

ITALY

The final legal polls were taken Feb 8th. The average of the final poll from each firm is as follows:

34.43% - Socialist

28.30% - Conservative

16.14% - Populist

14.44% - Moderate

3.95% - Radical

Note that the threshold is not 5% but 4%.

My final projection for Italy is as follows:

Presumptions:

Populists will gain a higher vote total than expected, pushing all other parties down.

Socialists will win the election and thus the 344 seats.

Radicals will make the threshold.

Monti's party will underperform

ITALY

344 - Socialist (House Majority)

123 - Conservative

86 - Populist

56 - Moderate (Join Socialist to create Senate Majority)

16 - Radical

Edited February 14, 2013 by TheNewTeddy

[cybercoma]

Interesting fact about the candidates that you named: Oulette appointed Tagle.

[TheNewTeddy]

Interesting fact about the candidates that you named: Oulette appointed Tagle.

Indeed. One of the things I looked very close at was what position they held. Oulette and Erdo hold positions that mean they have likely met every one of the voting cardinals already, and likely, more than once.

[TheNewTeddy]

Believe it or not we have some "poll averaging" for the Papal election. It is as follows:

18.97% Peter Turkson http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Peter_Turkson

17.28% Angelo Scola http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Angelo_Scola

10.42% Marc Ouellet http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Marc_Ouellet

7.15% Tarcisio Bertone http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tarcisio_Bertone

4.74% Leonardo Sandri http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Leonardo_Sandri

4.55% Francis Arinze http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Francis_Arinze

3.63% Oscar Rodriguez Maradiaga http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/%C3%93scar_Andr%C3%A9s_Rodr%C3%ADguez_Maradiaga

3.24% Gianfranco Ravasi http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gianfranco_Ravasi

3.21% Angelo Bagnasco http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Angelo_Bagnasco

3.08% Peter Erdo http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/P%C3%A9ter_Erd%C5%91

2.40% Odilo Pedro Scherer http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Odilo_Scherer

2.37% Christoph von Schonborn http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Christoph_Sch%C3%B6nborn

1.83% Jorge Mario Bergoglio http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jorge_Bergoglio

1.49% Claudio Hummes

1.46% Luis Antonio Tagle http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Luis_Antonio_Tagle

1.40% Timothy Dolan http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Timothy_M._Dolan

1.38% Anybody Else http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cardinal_electors_in_Papal_conclave,_2013

1.18% Antonio Canizares Llovera

1.17% Mauro Piacenza

1.13% Dionigi Tettamanzi

1.08% Archbishop Raymond Burke

1.06% Albert Malcolm Ranjith

1.00% Wilfred Napier

0.82% Camillo Ruini

0.73% George Pell

0.71% Robert Sarah

0.71% Piero Marini

0.67% Renato Martino

0.64% Francisco Javier Errazuriz Ossa

0.60% Norberto Rivera Carrera http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Norberto_Rivera_Carrera

This was determined using betting websites and averaging the odds for 13 different websites, for any candidate offered on the majority of those websites, who had odds above 1.5%. The total chances were then combined with one another to determine this list, which is the possibility, out of 100%, that somebody would win based on the odds offered.

It's as close as we are going to get, but given that money is involved, it's logically better than stabbing in the dark.

Cardinal electors are from....

28 - Italy

11 - United States

6 - Germany

5 - Spain

5 - India

5 - Brazil

4 - France

4 - Poland

3 - Canada

3 - Mexico

2 - Portugal

2 - Nigeria

2 - Argentina

12 - Elsewhere in Europe (1 per country)

9 - Elsewhere in Latin America (1 per country)

8 - Elsewhere in Sub-Saharan Africa (1 per country)

1 - Indonesia

1 - Philippines

1 - China

1 - Vietnam

1 - Australia

1 - Sri Lanka

1 - Egypt

44 - Countries that have had a previous pope (multiple: Italy, France, Germany; single: Poland, Netherlands, England)

76 - Countries that have not

Edited February 20, 2013 by TheNewTeddy