Keystone Pipeline & Presidential Election 2012

[August1991]

Will Canada determine the 2012 US presidential election?

A congressional deal to preserve a payroll tax cut for working Americans, approved by the US Senate Saturday, also contains a provision designed to force President Obama's hand on the controversial Keystone XL oil pipeline.

Republicans who pushed for the provision say the pipeline would be a slam-dunk win for a US economy that desperately needs jobs.

It now appears that when a bill lands on Mr. Obama's desk, with tax cuts that the president endorses as his own way to boost the economy, it will also include a call for him to decide within 60 days whether the Keystone pipeline for Canadian oil should be built.

Senate Republicans insisted the pipeline provision be included in the tax bill. The measure still needs a vote of approval in the Republican-controlled House of Representatives.

The pipeline, which would create jobs but angers environmentalists, has become a political flashpoint in recent months.

In November, Obama announced his intent to delay a decision until after the 2012 election, thus averting a difficult political dilemma.

Approving the plans of the Canadian firm TransCanada would have run afoul of environmentalists worried about threats to the massive Ogallala aquifer, which the pipeline would run past. Even Republicans in Nebraska have voiced opposition to the planned path of the project for that reason.

Alaska Dispatch

In Canada, we have had numerous federal elections where the US was a factor in determining the end result: 1962 Bomarc, 1988 FTA, etc.

I can't remember any US presidential election where Canada figured in any critical way to the outcome. (Draft-dodgers in the 1960s? Canadian health care more recently?) One has to go back to the 19th century: 1844 and the BC border, or the War of 1812 to see any serious mention of Canada in US politics.

-----

The Keystone Pipeline may change that since it could well figure in the upcoming presidential election. It involves energy security, jobs and the environment. The Republicans see it as a wedge issue that could possibly split the Democratic Party.

Edited December 20, 2011 by August1991

[punked]

You are behind. Congress through out the Senate plan after they agreed to it because the GOP congress has no leader and no direction. Back to the drawing board for that one.

[August1991]

You are behind. Congress through out the Senate plan after they agreed to it because the GOP congress has no leader and no direction. Back to the drawing board for that one.

Nothing has been thrown out. The Senate and House are working now on some kind of compromise to put to Obama for signing.

I reckon however that this is only an opening gambit. The Republicans can smell blood in this issue.

It's a long way to November however.

[punked]

Nothing has been thrown out. The Senate and House are working now on some kind of compromise to put to Obama for signing.

I reckon however that this is only an opening gambit. The Republicans can smell blood in this issue.

It's a long way to November however.

Nope the Dems only included it because they thought the GOP was negotiating in good faith now that is clear their word on this issue means nothing the Dems will strip it from the Bill. Sorry.

[Topaz]

What I've hear on US TV, was the Republicans are only pushing this not for the jobs but to make Obama look bad to Democrat voters, who are against the pipeline. If I were an American voter, I'd toss both, these parties out and hope for a third and wake up the politics in that country. Its too easy for the Republicans and Democrats.

[waldo]

Nothing has been thrown out. The Senate and House are working now on some kind of compromise to put to Obama for signing.

I reckon however that this is only an opening gambit. The Republicans can smell blood in this issue.

It's a long way to November however.

the GOP proves itself, once again, as being owned by BigOil... in order to grant Obama an extension to an expiring payroll tax cut provision, the GOP bundled the totally unrelated Keystone decision into the payroll tax cut extension bill... without the bill passing, individual Americans will face an additional tax hit of ~$1500, some unemployment benefits will run out and doctors' Medicare reimbursement rates will be slashed. The Keystone decision aspect of the bill would have required Obama to make a decision on Keystone within 60 days of the bill passing. The U.S. Senate has agreed to the makeup of this bill.

in an interesting twist, it appears now that the Democrats one-upped the GOP by limiting the extension period on the payroll tax cut to only 2 months... allowing Obama to continue to use this payroll cut extension as a hammer against the GOP... to force it to all come to a head again in 2 months. From this morning it looks like Republicans in the House are wavering and may vote the bill down themselves, citing they want a 1 year extension to the payroll tax cut bill... something that takes the tax cut aspect right out of the election cycle.

as for the Keystone component that had the GOP pushing a 60 day limit on Obama's decision, they also seem to be scrambling as they now realize it gives Obama an 'easy out' to outright kill Keystone... this past week the State Department came forward with a statement advising no arbitrary deadlines can be set on the Keystone decision... ""Should Congress impose an arbitrary deadline for the permit decision ... the Department would be unable to make a determination to issue a permit for this project".

Edited December 19, 2011 by waldo

[Shady]

This issue just goes to show you that Obama and the Dems don't give a crap about creating jobs. They'd rather have families continue to be unemployed that give the go ahead on a project that would create thousands of good paying construction and manufacturing jobs.

They're the true party of no. No to creating new jobs,

[sharkman]

I think what Obama cares most about is getting re-elected. I suspect that he will get revenue for his re-election bid from both sides of the pipeline issue. If he were to declare his intentions he'd lose that revenue stream and support for his election bid. So he plays both sides until after the election.

But this issue is more important to their economy and Obama is indeed sacrificing jobs and anything else that would get in his way of the white house. He still seems oblivious to the biggest impediment to his bid which is his performance in the first term.

[olp1fan]

Harpers talking tough again telling the Americans he'll seriously sell to China lol

hes so full of it.. hes trying to trick the public by being tough against the Americans but behind the scenes

he is begging them

[August1991]

Nope the Dems only included it because they thought the GOP was negotiating in good faith now that is clear their word on this issue means nothing the Dems will strip it from the Bill. Sorry.

This will come back. It's a wedge issue.

What I've hear on US TV, was the Republicans are only pushing this not for the jobs but to make Obama look bad to Democrat voters, who are against the pipeline.

Precisely. Topaz, you say it well.

----

First, I am surprised that Canada is involved in a US presidential election.

Second, I reckon that if the Keystone pipeline becomes an issue, we Canadians may be drawn further into the maelstrom.

When Americans ask our opinion, what will we say?

the GOP proves itself, once again, as being owned by BigOil...

Canada, and BigOil. Edited December 20, 2011 by August1991

[waldo]

as for the Keystone component that had the GOP pushing a 60 day limit on Obama's decision, they also seem to be scrambling as they now realize it gives Obama an 'easy out' to outright kill Keystone... this past week the State Department came forward with a statement advising no arbitrary deadlines can be set on the Keystone decision... "Should Congress impose an arbitrary deadline for the permit decision ... the Department would be unable to make a determination to issue a permit for this project".

U.S. Department of State - Keystone XL Pipeline (Taken Question - December 12, 2011 Briefing):

QUESTION: Do you have any comment on the proposed Congressional action requiring the State Department to make a determination on the Keystone pipeline within 60 days of enactment of the House version of the payroll tax cut bill?

ANSWER: It is the President’s prerogative to lead and manage the foreign policy of the United States, and in the case of the proposed Keystone XL pipeline project, our relations with Canada. This historical prerogative encompasses the President’s long-established authority to supervise the permitting process for transboundary pipelines.

The President has delegated his authority to supervise this permitting process, by executive order, to the Department of the State. This process for determining whether to issue permits for transborder pipelines has been in place for more than 40 years.

In determining whether a permit is in the national interest, this process requires consideration of a myriad of factors, including environmental and safety issues, energy security, economic impact, and foreign policy, as well as consultation with at least 8 federal agencies and inputs from the public and stakeholders - including Congress.

The State Department has led a rigorous, thorough, and transparent process that must run its course to obtain the necessary information to make an informed decision on behalf of the national interest. Should Congress impose an arbitrary deadline for the permit decision, its actions would not only compromise the process, it would prohibit the Department from acting consistently with National Environmental Policy Act requirements by not allowing sufficient time for the development of this information. In the absence of properly completing the process, the Department would be unable to make a determination to issue a permit for this project.

The State Department is currently in the process of obtaining additional information regarding alternate routes that avoid the Sand Hills in Nebraska. Based on preliminary consultations with the State of Nebraska and the permit applicant, the Department believes the review process could be completed in time for a decision to be made in first quarter 2013.

[Shady]

Canada, and BigOil.

And Big Jobs.

[waldo]

This issue just goes to show you that Obama and the Dems don't give a crap about creating jobs. They'd rather have families continue to be unemployed that give the go ahead on a project that would create thousands of good paying construction and manufacturing jobs.

They're the true party of no. No to creating new jobs,

And Big Jobs.

from a U.S. perspective - counter to the TransCanada commissioned "Perryman Group Study", per claims made by TransCanada Corporation and the American Petroleum Institute, an independent report from Cornell University's Global Labour Institute:

It is unfortunate that the numbers generated by TransCanada, the industry, and the Perryman study have been subject to so little scrutiny, because they clearly inflate the projections for the numbers of direct, indirect, and long-term induced jobs that KXL might expect to create. What is being offered by the proponents is advocacy to build support for KXL, rather than serious research aimed to inform public debate and responsible decision making. By repeating inflated numbers, the supporters of KXL approval are doing an injustice to the American public in that expectations are raised for jobs that simply cannot be met. These numbers—hundreds of thousands of jobs!—then get packaged as if KXL were a major jobs program capable of registering some kind of significant impact on unemployment levels and the overall economy. This is plainly untrue.

» The industry’s US jobs claims are linked to a $7 billion KXL project budget. However, the budget for KXL that will have a bearing on US jobs figures is dramatically lower—only around $3 to $4 billion. A lower project budget means fewer jobs.

» The project will create no more than 2,500-4,650 temporary direct construction jobs for two years, according to TransCanada’s own data supplied to the State Department.

» The company’s claim that KXL will create 20,000 direct construction and manufacturing jobs in the U.S is not substantiated.

» The industry’s claim that KXL will create 119,000 total jobs (direct, indirect, and induced) is based on a flawed and poorly documented study commissioned by TransCanada (The Perryman Group study). Perryman wrongly includes over $1 billion in spending and over 10,000 person-years of employment for a section of the Keystone project in Kansas and Oklahoma that is not part of KXL and has already been built.

»

KXL will not be a major source of US jobs, nor will it play any substantial role at all in putting Americans back to work

. Even if the Perryman figures were accurate, and all of the workers for the next phase of the project were hired immediately, the US seasonally adjusted unemployment rate would remain at 9.1%—exactly where it is now.

[mentalfloss]

So the unemployment rate won't change?

Wow.

The proof of the pudding is in the eating.

Edited December 20, 2011 by mentalfloss

[Guest Peeves]

Harpers talking tough again telling the Americans he'll seriously sell to China lol

hes so full of it.. hes trying to trick the public by being tough against the Americans but behind the scenes

he is begging them

Boy your scenario is quite a leap. Obviously there is a world market for our oil and while Harper may well be pressing to make a point, I don't think he's bluffing nor does he need to.

As for your claim that he's begging, that's quite ludicrous.He's shown he has balls and has stood his ground when called for.

[sharkman]

So the unemployment rate won't change?

Wow.

The proof of the pudding is in the eating.

There's no surprise that a disagreement in data exists. It always does in situations like this and it's quite likely that the truth is somewhere in the middle. What is important is that Obama secure a supply of oil for his economy that isn't tied to dictators and terrorists. That Obama put off the decision on Keystone is telling. He doesn't want the issue to hurt his re-election chances, so he's putting himself ahead of the economy. It's rather disgusting.

[Shady]

It's quite remarkable to listen to the environmentalist extremists of the forum argue against the pipeline on purely economic grounds. It's quite rich actually. This project uses zero tax money, and will create at minimum 2500 - 3000 good paying construction and manufacturing jobs. It will also provide billions in tax revenue to federal, state, and local governments.

Yet, these same geniuses, not long ago, were proponents of the pathetic Solyndra project, and still defend it to this very day. Which wasted $500 million dollars of tax money, and created ZERO jobs.

[waldo]

There's no surprise that a disagreement in data exists. It always does in situations like this and it's quite likely that the truth is somewhere in the middle.

somewhere in the middle? The independent Cornell University analysis I linked to states the industry funded study numbers can't be substantiated... that any jobs created are principally short-term (temporary)... that permanent jobs may only be in the area of 50 to 300 jobs. Again, according to the independent Cornell University analysis, KXL is not a significant jobs creator... and wouldn't have a significant impact on the U.S. economy. The suggestion of "Big Jobs" seems to be a shady one

That Obama put off the decision on Keystone is telling. He doesn't want the issue to hurt his re-election chances, so he's putting himself ahead of the economy. It's rather disgusting.

President Obama written statement: "

Because this permit decision could affect the health and safety of the American people as well as the environment, and because a number of concerns have been raised through a public process, we should take the time to ensure that all questions are properly addressed and all the potential impacts are properly understood

"

now... of all the public process revelations surrounding the initially proposed KXL route, perhaps one of the most polarizing concerns reflected upon the U.S. State Department's original environmental impact study associated with the initial proposed pipeline route... the environmental impact study that was undertaken by a company, Cardno Entrix; a company recommended by TransCanada itself. You know, TransCanada... the company seeking permission to build KXL. The same Cardno Entrix company that previously worked on several projects with TransCanada... the same Cardno Entrix company that also played a substantial role in organizing the public hearings on the original KXL route.

so... it would appear that TransCanada sponsored a study with benefits/job creation numbers that can't be substantiated. So... it would appear that TransCanada can be seen to have had some influence in the environmental impact analysis as well as some influence in the public hearing process. Is there a problem here?

[sharkman]

Waldo, numbers are easy to play with, so when an organization is even trying to be as objective as possible, their assumptions, biases and baseline data all affect the end result. To assume that one side got the numbers bang on and the other side is way off is a very trusting view and somewhat short sighted.

I suppose you are assuming that Obama's quote is the gospel truth as well? I always ask, who benefits when a politician makes a decision. It's quite easy to see that Obama helps himself greatly with this putting off of the issue until after the election. There is no way it needs to take that long and the decision would have an impact on his re-election. Of that there is no doubt. Plus he will be receiving donations for the election campaign. To make a decision before the election would shut off donations from those who oppose or those who support Keystone, depending on which way Obama would go. This thing is all about the election.

[Shady]

Waldo, numbers are easy to play with, so when an organization is even trying to be as objective as possible, their assumptions, biases and baseline data all affect the end result. To assume that one side got the numbers bang on and the other side is way off is a very trusting view and somewhat short sighted.

I suppose you are assuming that Obama's quote is the gospel truth as well? I always ask, who benefits when a politician makes a decision. It's quite easy to see that Obama helps himself greatly with this putting off of the issue until after the election. There is no way it needs to take that long and the decision would have an impact on his re-election. Of that there is no doubt. Plus he will be receiving donations for the election campaign. To make a decision before the election would shut off donations from those who oppose or those who support Keystone, depending on which way Obama would go. This thing is all about the election.

Exactly. We've already seen what Obama's economic pronouncements are worth. Absolutely nothing. Remember when he said pass my stimulus so that unemployment won't go above 8%? Or his job pronouncements regarding the permanent jobs that would be created by tax payer investment in Solyndra? Now he's fighting a project that involves no tax money, that will create thousands of jobs. He's a total economic disaster. Which is why this new book pretty much sums it up perfectly...

Amazon

[waldo]

Waldo, numbers are easy to play with, so when an organization is even trying to be as objective as possible, their assumptions, biases and baseline data all affect the end result. To assume that one side got the numbers bang on and the other side is way off is a very trusting view and somewhat short sighted.

all the numbers... played with... originate from an industry sponsored study... by the same industry company, TransCanada, seeking a permit to build KXL. An independent analysis of those industry fronted numbers state they can't be substantiated. The independent analysis also brings forward representative numbers based on like past pipeline initiatives. Somehow... in your short sightedness, it appears you quite like the 'suspect' industry fronted numbers, hey?

I suppose you are assuming that Obama's quote is the gospel truth as well? I always ask, who benefits when a politician makes a decision. It's quite easy to see that Obama helps himself greatly with this putting off of the issue until after the election. There is no way it needs to take that long and the decision would have an impact on his re-election. Of that there is no doubt. Plus he will be receiving donations for the election campaign. To make a decision before the election would shut off donations from those who oppose or those who support Keystone, depending on which way Obama would go. This thing is all about the election.

the quoted Obama statement is rather 'matter-of-fact', rather benign ... what's to dispute within that statement... other than the time to complete a new environmental impact analysis on (as I recall), 4 other possible alternate pipeline routes. Your statement might carry 'some' actual weight if you could show similar environmental impact studies being done in less than a years time frame.

[Shady]

It's amazing to see how hard these people will fight to stop job creation.

[waldo]

Remember when he said pass my stimulus so that unemployment won't go above 8%?

yeesh! This was an easy googly: Debunking the "Obama said unemployment wouldn't go over 8%" LIE

now, of course, you could simply giggle about the article source... or... you could put up a citation that actually presents Obama making that statement, hey?

Or his job pronouncements regarding the permanent jobs that would be created by tax payer investment in Solyndra?

another gimmee! In the same way you were schooled in the MLW Solyndra thread... Solyndra's request predated the Obama administration (i.e., the request associates with the Bush admin); under the Bush admin, career Energy Department officials narrowed the selection of candidate companies by including Solyndra within a group of 15 other candidate companies; prior to Obama assuming office, career Energy Department officials made the final decision to fund Solyndra.

Now he's fighting a project that involves no tax money, that will create thousands of jobs.

no - no matter how hard you bluster, again, KXL will have minimal job impact... will have no significant impact on the U.S. economy.

[Shady]

KXL will have minimal job impact... will have no significant impact on the U.S. economy.

A small business that hires 5 people tomorrow won't have a significant impact either. But things like this are cumulative, and have a multiplying effect. Again, why are you fighting so hard against job creation? Why do you discount 2500-3000 jobs during a bad recession? Solyndra wouldn't have had a significant impact on the economy either. But that didn't stop you from promoting the pissing away of $500 million tax dollars.

[waldo]

guys, guys... my newstracker just updated - seems U.S. House Republicans voted against the bill that was calling for an Obama decision on Keystone within 60 days... and yet Senate Republicans voted for the same bill. Now... uhhh... why does the GOP favour a protracted 2013 decision on Keystone?