Aging Boomers Not a Problem

[Smallc]

This article is really interesting, as it echoes something that I've heard recently - namely that an aging population will not in fact put large strain on the healthcare system.

http://www.cbc.ca/news/health/story/2011/11/03/health-care-spending.html

[Michael Hardner]

This article is really interesting, as it echoes something that I've heard recently - namely that an aging population will not in fact put large strain on the healthcare system.

http://www.cbc.ca/news/health/story/2011/11/03/health-care-spending.html

The CIHI produced the report, and they're our best option for healthcare information.

Indeed countries that didn't experience a baby boom have had medical expenses rise at a similar rate, from what I've read. We're just ... spending more. I maintain that it would be better for the public to have visibility into what is costing more money and why. I suspect that new drugs, new technology and more use of services is at the core of it. The article sheds some light on that, but we need more information.

[wyly]

expenses will peak and die down (literally) as boomers croak...

and apparently a fair number of boomers are offing themselves rather than endure long illnesses, immobility or just loneliness...

[Topaz]

I like to see a graph of where the money is being spent. I'm sure the operating cost and labour will be the two leading expenses. You may be able to trim the operating costs, but you won't trim back labour cost until we don't need that many doctors or nurses. I also, believe that all the nurses do earn their pay and most of the doctors.

[Handsome Rob]

I'm interested to know what effect baby boomer retirement will have on lost tax revenue, and increased expenditures across the board from health care to OAS, etc.

Surely it's a much larger picture than this?

[Smallc]

I'm interested to know what effect baby boomer retirement will have on lost tax revenue

I don't know if that's going to happen. Many boomers plan to keep working long into their 70s.

[Handsome Rob]

I don't know if that's going to happen. Many boomers plan to keep working long into their 70s.

But surely by that age consumption slows down? You don't see soon-to-be retiree's lining up for Iphones or replacing the car every 4 years. Less consumption, less money circulation, retirement investments turn to security rather than increased gains, house sold for a condo...

Frivolous thoughts? Or not?

[wyly]

I like to see a graph of where the money is being spent. I'm sure the operating cost and labour will be the two leading expenses. You may be able to trim the operating costs, but you won't trim back labour cost until we don't need that many doctors or nurses. I also, believe that all the nurses do earn their pay and most of the doctors.

nurses, mds, technicians, administration, maintenance personnel, hospitals, drugs, equipment where are we going to cut?...if there is waste it's in inefficiency and that can always be fine tuned, and is...

I don't see problems so much in overspending but under spending...healthcare is expensive and always will be but what is more important than our health?...healthcare and education are the best value for dollar spent we have...

[wyly]

I don't know if that's going to happen. Many boomers plan to keep working long into their 70s.

I don't plan to quit, when you stop moving/working you start dying...I'll work till I can't move then I'll do myself in...

[Smallc]

I don't plan to quit, when you stop moving/working you start dying..

Pretty much. I work 4 10 - 12 hour days a week, and I plan to do that for a very very long time (though not necessarily where I live or what I'm doing.

[Handsome Rob]

nurses, mds, technicians, administration, maintenance personnel, hospitals, drugs, equipment where are we going to cut?...if there is waste it's in inefficiency and that can always be fine tuned, and is...

I don't see problems so much in overspending but under spending...healthcare is expensive and always will be but what is more important than our health?...healthcare and education are the best value for dollar spent we have...

I can tell you that provincially, we have 6 separate health authorities. 6 complete bureaucracies all set on the same task, complete with public sector wages & benefits, capital expenses and everything else.

If we managed to turf 5 of them, and that led to more radiologists, anaesthesiologists, etc, which the province seems unwilling to pay for, I'd jump for joy.

Every organization that has ever existed has inefficiencies.

[dre]

The CIHI produced the report, and they're our best option for healthcare information.

Indeed countries that didn't experience a baby boom have had medical expenses rise at a similar rate, from what I've read. We're just ... spending more. I maintain that it would be better for the public to have visibility into what is costing more money and why. I suspect that new drugs, new technology and more use of services is at the core of it. The article sheds some light on that, but we need more information.

Theres WAY more to it than that. The reason healthcare costs are rising in the west is the exact same reason why the costs of producing everything else is rising in the west as well. A big part of is simply inflation.

Look at the various "stuffs" involved in healthcare.

1. The parcel of land to build a hospital on costs about 5 times as much as it would have cost 25 years ago.

2. A sheet of plywood has increased from 5 dollars to 15 or 20.

3. A yard of concrete has increased from 50 dollars to about 150.

4. A litre of gas has increased from 20 cents to a 1.30.

5. The cost of hiring staff (not just doctors and nurses but all the rest of the staff as well).

We cant afford our own healthcare for the exact same reason we cant afford our own textiles.

We have gotten around this in other areas by offshoring production to markets where production is still cheap, but the healthcare industry has been the most successful in avoiding this kind of competition.

[wyly]

I can tell you that provincially, we have 6 separate health authorities. 6 complete bureaucracies all set on the same task, complete with public sector wages & benefits, capital expenses and everything else.

If we managed to turf 5 of them, and that led to more radiologists, anaesthesiologists, etc, which the province seems unwilling to pay for, I'd jump for joy.

Every organization that has ever existed has inefficiencies.

well sure but we need to look at them with a critical eye...how inefficient are they really? are we looking for perfection? because we'll never achieve that...

mrs wyly works in medical administration and is short staffed(she works 10hr days 5 days per,she's not home yet so today it's 11hrs), so things don't get done asap because of a shortage of administrative help, but public demand for lower taxes has restricted funds to fill positions, then come the complaints "why does it take so long"...it's a never ending cycle...

[wyly]

Theres WAY more to it than that. The reason healthcare costs are rising in the west is the exact same reason why the costs of producing everything else is rising in the west as well. A big part of is simply inflation.

Look at the various "stuffs" involved in healthcare.

1. The parcel of land to build a hospital on costs about 5 times as much as it would have cost 25 years ago.

2. A sheet of plywood has increased from 5 dollars to 15 or 20.

3. A yard of concrete has increased from 50 dollars to about 150.

4. A litre of gas has increased from 20 cents to a 1.30.

5. The cost of hiring staff (not just doctors and nurses but all the rest of the staff as well).

We cant afford our own healthcare for the exact same reason we cant afford our own textiles.

We have gotten around this in other areas by offshoring production to markets where production is still cheap, but the healthcare industry has been the most successful in avoiding this kind of competition.

oh! here we go again ...

[Michael Hardner]

Theres WAY more to it than that. The reason healthcare costs are rising in the west is the exact same reason why the costs of producing everything else is rising in the west as well. A big part of is simply inflation.

Look at the various "stuffs" involved in healthcare. ...

I believe the article said that costs rose, in real dollars i.e. after taking inflation into account.

Anyway, I don't think you're necessarily wrong - but the real question is "why don't we know this" ?

[Michael Hardner]

mrs wyly works in medical administration and is short staffed(she works 10hr days 5 days per,she's not home yet so today it's 11hrs), so things don't get done asap because of a shortage of administrative help, but public demand for lower taxes has restricted funds to fill positions, then come the complaints "why does it take so long"...it's a never ending cycle...

I'd be really curious as to what administrators do... what all of the administrators do.

The system seems so archaic - so paper-based and so heirarchical... it just seems poorly managed to me.

[wyly]

I'd be really curious as to what administrators do... what all of the administrators do.

The system seems so archaic - so paper-based and so heirarchical... it just seems poorly managed to me.

paper based? you don't get out much paper is just hardcopy to store away as backup, mrs wyly's desk is like something from wallstreeet with multiple monitors tracking everything...what do you think administrators do? spend a moment and think of all the people it takes to run a hospital, the number of different jobs involved and then the volume of administration needed to keep that running smoothly...american MDs have about 4 times higher administration overhead in comparison to canadian mds

like the military for every frontline soldier(md) there is a support staff of 4-10 people keeping him/her supplied, fed, informed, paid, healthcare, etc...

Edited November 4, 2011 by wyly

[jacee]

This article is really interesting, as it echoes something that I've heard recently - namely that an aging population will not in fact put large strain on the healthcare system.

http://www.cbc.ca/news/health/story/2011/11/03/health-care-spending.html

I think they're saying they haven't seen it much yet, but the population bulge actually came in 1965. With the third/fourth/fifth children of the baby boom era, so it will go on for years yet, maybe peaking after 2030 when 'the bulge' is 65.

Lots of time to prepare.

[Evening Star]

My understanding is that the Millennial cohort is actually larger than the baby boomer cohort...?

[Michael Hardner]

paper based? you don't get out much paper is just hardcopy to store away as backup, mrs wyly's desk is like something from wallstreeet with multiple monitors tracking everything...

I just know that they still fax things, I still fill out paper forms whenever I go anywhere etc.

what do you think administrators do? spend a moment and think of all the people it takes to run a hospital, the number of different jobs involved and then the volume of administration needed to keep that running smoothly...american MDs have about 4 times higher administration overhead in comparison to canadian mds

1. I don't know what administrators do. They may be doing useful work, but they may not be working efficiently. The size and complexity of an operation isn't an indicator of how well it's run, obviously.

2. Comparisons to the US are not relevant unless you're looking to implement that type of system here.

like the military for every frontline soldier(md) there is a support staff of 4-10 people keeping him/her supplied, fed, informed, paid, healthcare, etc...

And you're comparing to the military... why ? Is that some kind of benchmark for well run organizations ?

Look - the healthcare system is a special case, but it needs more openness for people to understand exactly what they do, where resources are going and so on. There is no source for information that is commonly used by a public. We largely rely on press releases which more often than not have an agenda associated with them. CIHI is an exception.

[Smallc]

I just know that they still fax things, I still fill out paper forms whenever I go anywhere etc.

It's often simpler than; printing, signing, scanning, e-mailing, printing, singing, scanning, emailing, etc.

[noahbody]

The common belief is that an aging population will fuel demands for health-care services. Yet population aging has been a "very modest cost driver overall," the authors said.

The only conclusion I can come to is that the authors aren't very bright. Boomers will put an enormous strain on the health care system. Wait until they reach the age where they need long-term care.

[Smallc]

The only conclusion I can come to is that the authors aren't very bright. Boomers will put an enormous strain on the health care system. Wait until they reach the age where they need long-term care.

But that doesn't seem to be borne out in the evidence. The same is true of overweight people, who were preciously thought to increase the strain on the system.

[Michael Hardner]

The only conclusion I can come to is that the authors aren't very bright. Boomers will put an enormous strain on the health care system. Wait until they reach the age where they need long-term care.

So... CIHI is in the business of constantly analyzing healthcare statistics. It's commonly stated that boomers will be a problem, but the point is that CIHI (and almost CIHI alone) has DATA, so I would trust them over the common wisdom on this topic.

[wyly]

I just know that they still fax things, I still fill out paper forms whenever I go anywhere etc.

of course you still fill out paper they're not going to give you access to the computer network...the paperwork you fill out still needs to be put into the system by someone...

1. I don't know what administrators do. They may be doing useful work, but they may not be working efficiently. The size and complexity of an operation isn't an indicator of how well it's run, obviously.

so you want to add another layer of clerical work(still more expense) to keep you informed of what every little cog in the machine is doing all day?...they do that themselves they don't need us micro managing them...

2. Comparisons to the US are not relevant unless you're looking to implement that type of system here.

it is relevant, it demonstrates how much waste there can be when not done properly...our administrative system is much more efficient...

And you're comparing to the military... why ? Is that some kind of benchmark for well run organizations ?

just an example of how many people that work behind those who get the attention...we focus on MDs and nurses but there are many more involved for those MDs and nurses to able to do their job...healthcare requires a massive complex organization to deliver the service, most people only see the tip of the iceberg, nurses and MDs...my last visit to the ER was 7hrs, 7hrs laying in ER watching/studying all the coming and goings of numerous people who are not nurse and MDs that make it all run smoothly...

Look - the healthcare system is a special case, but it needs more openness for people to understand exactly what they do, where resources are going and so on. There is no source for information that is commonly used by a public. We largely rely on press releases which more often than not have an agenda associated with them. CIHI is an exception.

do you really need to know how many rolls of toilet paper a hospital goes through in a day or how long it takes to change them or who keeps track of that?... knowing how much data some administration person inputs per day will mean what to you? how will you know if it's too little or a lot?...are the daily fires put out by the HR people going to understood by anyone, how are you going to attach an appropriate dollar figure to HR issues...really to people like you and me that type of data is meaningless, it serves no purpose only to add more expense by adding more administration costs to satisfy our casual curiosity... Edited November 4, 2011 by wyly