Discuss results as they come in

[maplesyrup]

I wonder what percentage of the Green vote came from the Conservatives. Although they did not elect anyone they will now have a lot of money to fight the next election.

[DAC]

Are you saying that Canadians are WRONG?

Of course. Is there any Canadian who doesn't do that at least daily?

For a more serious reply, read John Stuart Mills essay "On liberty".

[maplesyrup]

As political scientist Richard Johnston said hopefully this puts the idea to rest the idea that BC is a Conservative bastion similiar to Alberta. So let's bury that one, once and for all.

[maplesyrup]

Let's see who the actual winners and losers are.

Here is a comparison of the results of the differences between Canada's 37th and 38th elections.

Popular vote

Party/2000/2004/Change

Libs: 40.8%, 36.7%, down 4.1%

Cons: 37.7%, 29.6%, down 8.1%

Bloc: 10.7%, 12.4%, up 1.7%

New Dem: 8.5%, 15.7%, up 7.2%

Oth: 2.3% (2000)

Grn: 4.3% (2004)

CHP: 0.3% (2004)

It appears at first glance that the left has increased its support, and in particular the New Democrats are the big winners in Canada's 38th election.

[playfullfellow]

No matter how look at it, the West has made it very clear that they are tired of the way the Liberals have run this country and butt kissed Ontario-East regions. The butt kissing did not help them in Quebec. Aside from Ontario, the Liberals got trounced. I think the Conservatives could have done a little better job in the Maritimes but the Liberals have bought that area years ago. Ontario could not have a new idea if it bit them in the butt, they continued to listen to the Liberal rhetoric about everyone else being rather scary.

Lest the NDP the Liberals considered the NDP a non-issue all election and heaped as much crap that way as they shoveled towards the Conservatives.

[maplesyrup]

Voters rejected Harper and Martin, the right wing parties.

Just look at the popular vote.

The Conservatives are way too right wing for Canadians.

Watch now for some aditional right of centre parties to emege such as PC Party & CHP & the Greens.

[August1991]

Michael Moore has based two films on his theory that the "powers that be" can frighten people and make them do what it wants.

That theory doesn't work in Quebec or the Prairies (and I doubt it works in the US) but it apparently works in Ontario.

Well, Harper was a new guy and the Liberal attack ads frightened enough people in Ontario.

The Conservatives are way too right wing for Canadians.

What do you mean, "right wing"?

[Digby]

Its hard to beleave The majority are ok with a party we all know are a bunch of crooks .

I can't beleave that many fellow atlantic Canadians voted for this most corrupt of all political parties .

The only way i can attempt to explain it is most are ok with cheating liers now days .

[Michael Hardner]

Its hard to beleave The majority are ok with a party we all know are a bunch of crooks .

I can't beleave that many fellow atlantic Canadians voted for this most corrupt of all political parties .

The only way i can attempt to explain it is most are ok with cheating liers now days .

They're more inept then corrupt. And they seem to appeal to certain voters' desire for stability.

I would advise the CPC to get more mainstream. Canada will elect them for lower taxes, but they have to cage up the social conservatives for good.

[August1991]

I would advise the CPC to get more mainstream.

I understand what you mean Michael but I think you're wrong.

The Tories can present themselves anyway they want but the Liberals will always paint them as dangerous (inexperienced/incompetent) and enough Ontario voters will apparently believe the Liberals.

It is the nature of attack ads to emphasize the perceived negative side of the opponent.

These kinds of ads don't work in Quebec anymore (the PQ was vilified everyway imaginable - people ignore that stuff now seeing it as just part of the game).

[Michael Hardner]

I understand what you mean Michael but I think you're wrong.

The Tories can present themselves anyway they want but the Liberals will always paint them as dangerous (inexperienced/incompetent) and enough Ontario voters will apparently believe the Liberals.

I disagree.

Harper could have done more to keep the social cons out, but he had to keep that element of his party happy. He could have made it CPC policy to leave the charter alone, and concentrated on the scandal and his economic vision.

It is the nature of attack ads to emphasize the perceived negative side of the opponent.

So, Harper has to bulletproof his party from that kind of attack. Or, I suppose he could give up.

These kinds of ads don't work in Quebec anymore (the PQ was vilified everyway imaginable - people ignore that stuff now seeing it as just part of the game).

Really ? Were the Liberals also villified by the Bloc ? Or villifried ?

[Hugo]

I would advise the CPC to get more mainstream.

By that you mean "veer more towards the far left than the current, left-of-center position." It's disappointing that there is no real choice for a right-wing party in Canada anymore. Despite the name, the Conservatives are anything but as Harper is trying his best to reign in all so-cons, reassuring voters that he'll protect abortion and won't legislate against gay marriage, and their fiscal policies are quite left-leaning - socialised medicine, government-run business, etc. and while the Cons may promise to lower taxes, Canadians would still remain one of the most heavily taxed peoples in the world.

It reminds me of the last Ontario election. The only question being asked of the electorate is, "how would you like your socialism?" There's nothing viable in Canada that is anything close to, say, the Republican Party. It's all left-of-centre.

I also think this will be a trying time for confederacy. Quebec has been very happy to support the Bloc this time around, and should Charest lose the next provincial election it'll be clear that Quebec is seriously pushing away from the rest of Canada.

I also anticipate that the Western Canadian separatist movement will gain strength after this election. Alberta basically foots the bill for the rest of Canada, and the rest of the country, in particular Ontario, has made it clear that they are happy to take Albertan money to pay for their social experiments but are not prepared to give the West any kind of political respect. If I was Albertan at this point I'd be hopping mad. Any comments from Albertans?

[August1991]

Look, these Liberal style attack ads have been used against the PQ since 1970. It's taken a long time but it doesn't work now. (It was vaguely pathetic to see PM PM yelling about separation and the end of Canada in this past election.)

The Liberal attack ads (soldiers jumping out of helicopters, guns shooting, women sitting on clinic floors or Mulroney/Harris destroyed the economy) are the same thing.

"If the Tories win, the sky is going to fall so don't vote Tory."

It 's hard to respond to such ads. The PQ used gentle persuasion endlessly applied. In the States, the opponent goes negative too.

[maplesyrup]

Isn't it about time for the Conservatives to take responsibility for their mistakes?

The attack ads didn't have much to do with it.

Conservatives mainly did it to themselves by the following:

1 - Ralph Klein's comments about medicare

2 - Social Conservatives in Conservative party making outrageous comments that are just so far beyond the pale, and Harper's response or non-response to them.

3 - Harper talking about winning a majority, and transition teams, and all those kind of comments. And you thought the Liberals were arrogant.

4 - Harper's love affair with George Bush.

Harper may have to go if the Conservatives are ever to win power.

[Michael Hardner]

Hugo:

By that you mean "veer more towards the far left than the current, left-of-center position." It's disappointing that there is no real choice for a right-wing party in Canada anymore. Despite the name, the Conservatives are anything but as Harper is trying his best to reign in all so-cons, reassuring voters that he'll protect abortion and won't legislate against gay marriage, and their fiscal policies are quite left-leaning - socialised medicine, government-run business, etc. and while the Cons may promise to lower taxes, Canadians would still remain one of the most heavily taxed peoples in the world.

I don't know about the most heavily-taxed part.

But I see your point about having a party with strong socially conservative views. Unfortunately, without a presence in Quebec, Harper can't afford to alienate large blocks of people if he ever wants a majority.

The CPC's economics, combined with Liberal ineptitude could give them a win, but they have to drop the social side of conservatism.

It reminds me of the last Ontario election. The only question being asked of the electorate is, "how would you like your socialism?" There's nothing viable in Canada that is anything close to, say, the Republican Party. It's all left-of-centre.

You're correct here. There probably are some fringe parties at end of the spectrum, though.

I also think this will be a trying time for confederacy. Quebec has been very happy to support the Bloc this time around, and should Charest lose the next provincial election it'll be clear that Quebec is seriously pushing away from the rest of Canada.

I also anticipate that the Western Canadian separatist movement will gain strength after this election. Alberta basically foots the bill for the rest of Canada, and the rest of the country, in particular Ontario, has made it clear that they are happy to take Albertan money to pay for their social experiments but are not prepared to give the West any kind of political respect. If I was Albertan at this point I'd be hopping mad. Any comments from Albertans?

I think Ontario pays out as well. The Toronto separatists have figures that say Toronto definitely pays out more than it receives.

[Michael Hardner]

Here's a link to Craig Read's website, by the way:

Craig Read - ex MapleLeafWebber

Craig claims that Toronto exports $20 B "to fund socialization and equalization programs which politicians use to buy votes."

Which is weird, considering that the payers (Toronto) supported the Liberals a lot more than some of the payees (oh, let's say... Saskatchewan) did.

[takeanumber]

Cons lost.

Fair and Square.

Cons went negative first.

Libs showed that they were better at going negative.

Cons started to cozy up to the Bloc.

Canadians didn't like it.

2/3 of Canadians looked at Harper and his brand of social conservatism and replied, "no".

Get over it.

(PS. Alberta doesn't speak for the entire West.)

[DAC]

Memories here seem very short. The PC party in recent years squeezed out the social conservatives, saying, we want your vote, but you have to shut up, and you can't run for office. Remember what happened? The social conservatives said, "We don't want to be part of a party which is intolerant of us". The result was the formation of Reform, and then the Alliance. The consequence was almost the disappearance of the PCs. Of course there were other factors, but that was the biggest of them all.

Now they've gotten back together as a party which tolerates social conservatives and social moderates, sharing a conservative economic and political outlook. In their first try, in an election called before they'd even had a convention to hammer out policy, they didn't make it to power. So the doomsayers cry, "Away with the social conservatives!" Skip the fact that when the election was called everybody was talking Liberal majority.

CBC commented that Harper and the new party were to be commended on how well they had done, with so little time to prepare for this election. Personally, I think the crocodile tears for the Conservatives losing because of they presence of social conservatives are coming from the left, in the hope of wiping them out again.

[takeanumber]

The vast majority of Canadians are not social conservative.

If women in Alberta want to wear the Burqa, they can.

But people in Urban BC, saskatchewan, manitoba, urban ontario, quebec, and most of Atlantic Canada, do not feel the need to be told how to live, and don't want their brand of morality legislated.

Unless social conservatives acknowledge that they too have compromise in this country, then they'll get nowhere, and will forever be wraping themselves in the wet blanket of victimization.

Personally, I think most social Conservatives get off on the whole victimization thing. I know a lot of Albertans do.

[August1991]

By no stretch of the imagination did Stephen Harper run a campaign based on social conservatism. He barely ran a campaign on fiscal conservatism.

Instead, the Liberals ran some extremely effective US-style attack ads in Ontario that demonized Harper. The result was that about 25 Ontario seats went Liberal instead of Tory and NDP.

Without that, we all would be writing very different things on this forum.

The Liberals have perfectly understood what they did. I don't know if it's possible for Liberals to be more cynical.

Why this tactic worked and why the Tories didn't respond are questions for another thread. But please don't draw grand socio-political conclusions from what amounted to a "good" campaign move.

[Stoker]

Unless social conservatives acknowledge that they too have compromise in this country, then they'll get nowhere, and will forever be wraping themselves in the wet blanket of victimization.

Personally, I think most social Conservatives get off on the whole victimization thing. I know a lot of Albertans do.

Who says we have to compromise? If things don't change in our favour to a certain extent (and in Quebec's) you could very well see the end of Confederation in under a generation.........

When's the next Quebec provincial election? And can people outside of Quebec donate to the PQ?

[Reverend Blair]

By no stretch of the imagination did Stephen Harper run a campaign based on social conservatism. He barely ran a campaign on fiscal conservatism.

No, he ran a negative campaign that was not based on issues. His entire platform was basically, "Those damned Liberals wasted money and maybe even stole from you."

Canadians aren't stupid. They already knew that. They also knew that the Conservatives would do the same thing with different beneficiaries or, more likely, the same greasy little buddies in different back rooms. Most voters were born at night, but it was at least eighteen years ago.

So Canadians went looking for issues and look what came out...the new Conservatives are just like the old Alliance. The voting went according to that. People were a lot madder at the Liberals and likely less afraid of Stephen than Doris Day (I think that's a mistake but...) and that showed up in the polls.

[takeanumber]

Harper went negative from day one.

The Libs were trying to go positive. That's why their campaign sucked the first two weeks.

Then they found their balls, played negative, responded, and recovered.

Saying that the liberals won only because they went negative, and infering that that is a bad thing, is you know, a lot like calling the kettle back.

As for the calls for seperation.

Now you're sounding like a BQ Biatch.

Seriously.

The majority of Canadians have spoken. They want a left leaning minority government.

They saw what harper had in store.

They said 'No!!!", plain and simple.

So, don't play this "if we can have things our way, we're taking our ball and leaving" game, because it's already getting thin.

[Stoker]

As for the calls for seperation.

Now you're sounding like a BQ Biatch.

Seriously.

The majority of Canadians have spoken. They want a left leaning minority government.

They saw what harper had in store.

They said 'No!!!", plain and simple.

So, don't play this "if we can have things our way, we're taking our ball and leaving" game, because it's already getting thin.

Since the "majority of Canadians" (aka Eastern Canada) have spoken, and obviously have no problem playing with our "Ball", well at the same time not letting us "play", tell me, why should the West and Quebec subject ourselves to this "game"?

Convince me and I'll drop the subject..........

[August1991]

The majority of Canadians have spoken. They want a left leaning minority government.

Paul Martin, left-leaning? What planet are you from?

They saw what harper had in store.

They saw what Herle showed Harper to be and some of them (not many) were afraid. (Many were NDP who switched to Liberal in the last few days.)

I have seen the Liberals do this many times in Quebec.

What was the famous Trudeau line in Quebec in 1980? "We will put our seats on the line and change Canada so you don't have to vote yes."

Bait and switch, or scare people.

I'm surprised both Rev and TalkNumb fall for this. At least call a spade a spade.