Stephen Harper, the Only Winner in Election 2011

[August1991]

Harper won. But who lost? Everyone else.

Let's start with English-Canada's MSM. They apologized for Ignatieff and tried to explain that it was a close race. In fact, Harper won by a comfortable majority. The English-Canadian MSM (based in Toronto) has lost credibility and is no longer in touch with the world that it is supposed to report.

French-Canada's MSM, based in Montreal. It should have investigated and reported on the NDP candidates in Quebec to inform voters that the candidates could not speak French, have never been to their ridings. It was the G&M (in Toronto) that first broke the story of Ruth-Ellen Brosseau being in Las Vegas. Quebec journalists, another loser.

The Bloc is an obvious loser. It went from 50 seats to 4. Duceppe was once considered a possible Quebec PM. Now people suggest that he would be a good mayor for Montreal. (Not.) How many Bloc MPs lost their pension because of this defeat?

The federal Liberals are another obvious loser. They are now third party, sitting at the far end of the House. Lowest seat total and popular vote since Confederation. Worse, the Liberals had one basic argument to attract voters and talent: they won elections and were Canada's natural governing party. As losers, the federal Liberals will attract no one who wants to get close to a winner. The federal Liberals have lost the critical groupie vote.

I had lunch after the election with a typical Montreal Liberal. She still couldn't believe that her MP was NDP. Will Trudeau Jnr/Leblanc Jnr resurrect the federal Liberals? Doubt it. True, there are many middle-road Liberal voters in Canada. I suspect however that another party will attract them.

Are the federal NDP losers? They won almost 60 seats in Quebec! Well, the NDP is a loser too. These Quebec MPs are a poisoned chalice. They will destroy the NDP reputation in Quebec and then many of them will separate from the NDP. I would first expect that some federal NDP MPs will choose to caucus in French separately. Then, Boulerice will lead a new NDP caucus. They'll likely separate on an obscure issue of provincial jurisdiction/language. Layton will regret the departure.

Underneath all, the division will arise because some Quebec NDP MPs will know that their status as MP derives from Layton and the NDP. Others will come to believe that they are MP because of their personal talents.

How about Quebec sovereigntists? Losers too. Jean-François Lisée (and Benz on this forum) have made the heroic argument that this federal election shows once again that Quebec is distinct from the ROC. Quebec votes NDP to defeat Harper, but English-Canada votes Harper. The problem with this argument is that a vote for the Bloc would have accomplished the same. So why did Quebec voters switch to the NDP? The sovereigntists have no ready answer. (My own feeling is that most Quebec voters want nothing to do with this federalist/sovereigntist debate and they switched to the NDP because they are tired of people like Jean-François Lisée and Benz.)

For sovereigntists though, the terrible loss is in their supposed threat: "If provoked, ordinary Quebecers will rise up and destroy Canada." Well, Quebec voters just elected a unilingual anglophone as their representative in a federal parliament. IOW, Quebec voters are no threat at all to a federal Canada because they vote foolishly, or don`t choose a separatist option. (Jean-François Lisée has many arguments to explain this NDP tsunmami but the ultimate conclusion is that Quebec voters are paper tigers. Canadian federalists can sleep peacefully.)

Or Pauline Marois and the PQ? Losers too. She and they fear François Legault and the ADQ effect. Quebec voters apparently are seeking an alternative to the old federalist/sovereigntist debate.

And finally, how about people in Quebec? Well, many voted for a party because they took a chance and trusted the leader. For the next four years, they will have amateurs defending them in a federal parliament. True, Quebec voters should have investigated better their federal candidates. The fact is however that most Quebec voters don't care about Canadian federal politics. (As an English-Canadian, do you care about US politics? Is Romney a better opponent than Trump in 2012? For better or worse, most Quebec voters treat Canadian federal politics at best like AW or BC2004 treat Canadian politics in general: An amusement.) Maybe Molly is right. In another thread, she said that voters get the candidates they choose. Well, Quebec voters got the federal MPs they want.

But worse for Quebec voters, Harper won his majority without need of seats in Quebec. And this shift to the West will only increase in the next House seat redistribution.

-----

I'm sorry if this rant/analysis seems to be about Quebec - and not Harper's win. Yet in 2011, Harper won seats everywhere in Canada except Quebec.

In federal elections, Quebecers tend to vote in unisson.

In 1958, Quebecers voted massively for Diefenbaker and the Conservatives. In 1972, they voted for Trudeau and the Liberals. In 1984, they voted massively for Mulroney and the Conservatives. In 1993, they voted massively for the Bloc and Bouchard. In 2011, the voted massively for Layton and the NDP.

There are exceptions. In 2000, the Bloc and the Liberals received an equal number of seats. And the Créditistes did very well in 1962 and Harper's Conservatives did fine in 2006.

Some commentators suggest that Canada has now moved to an ideological divide, and presumably Quebecers or other Canadians will split their vote in federal elections on ideological grounds. I somehow doubt it. Canada is not divided or united on ideology. Harper, for the moment, has defeated all of his regional/ideological opponents. He has faced down the media.

Maybe I'm wrong, maybe I'm old school, but I think a successful opposition to Harper will be regional not ideological.

Edited May 6, 2011 by August1991

[cybercoma]

I love how you completely write off the NDP before even giving them a chance. Biased much? Regardless their inexperience and lack of presence, these candidates won a democratic election. You seem to be suggesting that Quebeckers are too stupid to know who they have elected. Moreover, all of this criticism about McGill studnets is completely unfounded. Young and inexperienced, sure. However, we're talking about students from a university recognized around the world as one of the best. I'm sure these "kids" are pretty smart and must be somewhat motivated if they made the choice to run for Parliament, something most people couldn't imagine doing. Just let the NDP sort out its caucus and teach them the ropes. There will be plenty of time for criticism when question periods get underway and we see how they perform.

[Battletoads]

I'd agree with your opening statement.

The Liberals Lost

The Bloc Lost

The NDP has lost influence

and Canadians have lost

The only real winners out of this election is Harper and his socially regressive buddies.

[TimG]

and Canadians have lost...

The biggest conceit amoung all partisans is to assume they speak for "Canadians". Get over yourself. You speak only for people who happen to support your political views.

[Battletoads]

The biggest conceit amoung all partisans is to assume they speak for "Canadians". Get over yourself. You speak only for people who happen to support your political views.

I'm speaking from the point of view of the majority of Canadians who did not vote for Harper.

[Bonam]

I'm speaking from the point of view of the majority of Canadians who did not vote for Harper.

You say that as if it's somehow meaningful. No party has had the votes of a majority of (voting) Canadians for nearly 3 decades. And before that, almost another three decades to the next prior instance of a party winning more than 50% of the popular vote. Parties form governments, very often majority governments, with less than 50% of the votes. That's how our system works, and how it is designed to work, and it has given us a history of good government.

On an unrelated note, the arrogance of your statement is astounding. Do not presume to speak on behalf of all those who did note vote for Harper. You really think they all agree with you? There are several on this very board who did not vote for Harper but do not hold the opinion that "Canadians have lost".

Edited May 6, 2011 by Bonam

[kimmy]

Or Pauline Marois and the PQ? Losers too. She and they fear François Legault and the ADQ effect. Quebec voters apparently are seeking an alternative to the old federalist/sovereigntist debate.

This one I'm skeptical of.

Albertans know that the biggest factor in creating 4 decades of uninterrupted Progressive Conservative provincial governments was Trudeau and Chretien and NEP and Meech Lake.

Now the PQ has a Prime Minister with a majority government based entirely in English Canada, and no BQ in the House of Commons to steal their thunder as the real champions of le Quebecois. Now it's just the heroic PQ all alone standing up to the evil Anglo Conservatives. For Alberta politicians, this is the setup for a political windfall. It couldn't be any better. I'm sure Pauline Marois will be able to figure out how to make it work. Harper will be the PQ's Chretien.

-k

[RNG]

I'm speaking from the point of view of the majority of Canadians who did not vote for Harper.

Again I say, what about the 82% who didn't vote for Layton?

[Battletoads]

You say that as if it's somehow meaningful.

What the majority of voters want is meaningful. And the majority of voters did not want Harper.

No party has had the votes of a majority of (voting) Canadians for nearly 3 decades. And before that, almost another three decades to the next prior instance of a party winning more than 50% of the popular vote.

And no party during that time should have won a majority

Parties form governments, very often majority governments, with less than 50% of the votes. That's how our system works, and how it is designed to work.

Our system is designed to deal with two parties, its past time it was updated to reflect the modern reality.

On an unrelated note, the arrogance of your statement is astounding. Do not presume to speak on behalf of all those who did note vote for Harper. You really think they all agree with you? There are several on this very board who did not vote for Harper but do not hold the opinion that "Canadians have lost".

Funny, I never said I was speaking for anyone. I think you need to buff up your reading comprehension skills.

I'll post this a few time just so it can sink in.

I'm speaking from the point of view of the majority of Canadians who did not vote for Harper.

I'm speaking from the point of view of the majority of Canadians who did not vote for Harper.

I'm speaking from the point of view of the majority of Canadians who did not vote for Harper.

I'm speaking from the point of view of the majority of Canadians who did not vote for Harper.

[Bonam]

I'm speaking from the point of view of the majority of Canadians who did not vote for Harper.

I'm speaking from the point of view of the majority of Canadians who did not vote for Harper.

I'm speaking from the point of view of the majority of Canadians who did not vote for Harper.

I'm speaking from the point of view of the majority of Canadians who did not vote for Harper.

Repeating something over and over doesn't make it true. Most children learn this at an early age, but apparently not all. Let me state it for you clearly:

You speak only from your own point of view.

I only wrote it once so if you need to see it 4 times for it to sink in properly you'll have to go and reread it.

[Battletoads]

Again I say, what about the 82% who didn't vote for Layton?

Well for one your numbers are totally wrong. Layton got 30.6% of the vote, not the 18% your claiming...

And two, I would expect his party (and the other parties) would have a seat count inline with their voting percentages.

Edited May 6, 2011 by Battletoads

[Battletoads]

Repeating something over and over doesn't make it true. Most children learn this at an early age, but apparently not all. Let me state it for you clearly:

You speak only from your own point of view.

I only wrote it once so if you need to see it 4 times for it to sink in properly you'll have to go and reread it.

Please quote where I claim to be taking for more than myself.

The right wing nuts, like, you seem to have difficulty backing up their warped views.

[Bonam]

Please quote where I claim to be taking for more than myself.

Already done. Twice in fact.

The right wing nuts, like, you seem to have difficulty backing up their warped views.

Ah yes, expert debating skills on full display: when everything else (which wasn't much) fails, start name-calling. I'd reply in kind, but your chosen user name already does the job nicely.

[Battletoads]

Already done. Twice in fact.

Actually you've done nothing of the sort...

Ah yes, expert debating skills on full display: when everything else (which wasn't much) fails, start name-calling. I'd reply in kind, but your chosen user name already does the job nicely.

This is a debate? To debate 'to argue or discuss' one must have evidence, something you sorely lack.

But as a typical right winger you don't let reality get in your way.

[scribblet]

81.09% DID NOT vote for the Liberals

69.34% DID NOT vote for the NDP

94.96% DID NOT vote for the Bloc

97.09% DID NOT vote for the Greens.

Looks like the Conservatives DO win!

Of our 41 federal elections, only 6 (SIX) have provided a government with an outright majority.

And in the past 50 years, only ONE - Brian Mulroney's Tories in 1984 with 50.03%.

[WWWTT]

81.09% DID NOT vote for the Liberals

69.34% DID NOT vote for the NDP

94.96% DID NOT vote for the Bloc

97.09% DID NOT vote for the Greens.

Looks like the Conservatives DO win!

Of our 41 federal elections, only 6 (SIX) have provided a government with an outright majority.

And in the past 50 years, only ONE - Brian Mulroney's Tories in 1984 with 50.03%.

In your brilliant mathematical genius you forgot those who have not voted indy!

WWWTT

[WWWTT]

Wow a real long winded thread about 1991 opinion.

Not worth more than a few words responce

Good luck with this one 1991

WWWTT

[TimG]

I'm speaking from the point of view of the majority of Canadians who did not vote for Harper.

No you are not. You have no idea how many of those voters are perfectly happy with a Harper government even if they did not vote for him. The only people who can possible speak for are those who share your ideology and that is a minority of Canadians.

[Topaz]

May I also add, that some voters who DID vote for the Tories didn't vote necessarily Tory because they thought he was the right leader, they voted to STOP any further elections! They didn't support their platform and any other reason than that. We'll wait four years and see what happens then, if these same voters vote Tory.

[PIK]

I'm speaking from the point of view of the majority of Canadians who did not vote for Harper.

Not true,the 40% that did not vote, really voted for the status quo as in keeping harper as PM, so really harper got 80% of the vote.

[Tilter]

I'd agree with your opening statement.

The Liberals Lost

The Bloc Lost

The NDP has lost influence

and Canadians have lost

The only real winners out of this election is Harper and his socially regressive buddies.

And a majority that will be, at long last, be able to do something positive.

[Bryan]

We'll wait four years and see what happens then, if these same voters vote Tory.

Harper's been listening to that rhetoric for five straight elections now, and his support keeps increasing.

[Guest Derek L]

81.09% DID NOT vote for the Liberals

69.34% DID NOT vote for the NDP

94.96% DID NOT vote for the Bloc

97.09% DID NOT vote for the Greens.

Looks like the Conservatives DO win!

Of our 41 federal elections, only 6 (SIX) have provided a government with an outright majority.

And in the past 50 years, only ONE - Brian Mulroney's Tories in 1984 with 50.03%.

Another way to look at it: ~55% of Canadians west of the Ottawa river voted for the Tories/Harper

[Evening Star]

French-Canada's MSM, based in Montreal. It should have investigated and reported on the NDP candidates in Quebec to inform voters that the candidates could not speak French, have never been to their ridings. It was the G&M (in Toronto) that first broke the story of Ruth-Ellen Brosseau being in Las Vegas. Quebec journalists, another loser.

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/politics/ottawa-notebook/why-voters-elected-the-ndps-vegas-girl-anyway/article2010885/

And how many other NDP MPs fit this description?

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/opinions/editorials/in-the-commons-the-kids-are-alright/article2011610/

[cybercoma]

Again I say, what about the 82% who didn't vote for Layton?

The NDP only got 18% of the vote? I think you better check your numbers again.