Final Seat Predictions Contest

[nittanylionstorm07]

...a gold star.

Starting a new thread to try to get all of the newest projections in one place, and older projections based off of older polls will likely be inaccurate.

The only projections that will count will be final house of commons projections, though feel free to provide a province-territory breakdown.

Seat Projections due before BC polls close

With that said, here are mine:

Provinces/Territories

British Columbia CPC 14 NDP 18 LPC 3 GRN 1

Alberta CPC 26 NDP 2 LPC 0

Saskatchewan CPC 11 NDP 3 LPC 0

Manitoba CPC 7 NDP 7 LPC 0

Ontario CPC 57 NDP 22 LPC 27

Quebec CPC 3 NDP 60 LPC 1 BQ 11

New Brunswick CPC 4 NDP 5 LPC 1

Prince Edward Island CPC 0 NDP 2 LPC 2

Nova Scotia CPC 4 NDP 6 LPC 1

Newfoundland/Labrador CPC 1 NDP 4 LPC 2

Nunavut CPC 0 NDP 0 LPC 1

Northwest Territories CPC 0 NDP 1 LPC 0

Yukon CPC 0 NDP 0 LPC 1

TOTALS:

Conservative Party of Canada 127

New Democratic Party 130

Liberal Party of Canada 39

Bloc Quebecois 11

Green Party of Canada 1

Edited May 2, 2011 by nittanylionstorm07

[cybercoma]

I live in NB and I can tell you there isn't a chance in hell the NDP is getting more than 1 seat in NB and they aren't getting any seats in PEI.

[nittanylionstorm07]

I live in NB and I can tell you there isn't a chance in hell the NDP is getting more than 1 seat in NB and they aren't getting any seats in PEI.

Okay. Do you have projections to offer, or are you just trolling?

[cybercoma]

Okay. Do you have projections to offer, or are you just trolling?

I'm not trolling. I support the NDP too, but your numbers in the Atlantic provinces are way out of whack. This is the problem with the first-past-the-post system. It seems like they should pick up those seats, but it's not going to happen. They'll increase their support and still not win ridings. We need electoral reform desperately.

[nittanylionstorm07]

I'm not trolling. I support the NDP too, but your numbers in the Atlantic provinces are way out of whack. This is the problem with the first-past-the-post system. It seems like they should pick up those seats, but it's not going to happen. They'll increase their support and still not win ridings. We need electoral reform desperately.

This is based off of looking at various regional polling statistics and considering that there have been many reports of high turnout especially with youth. One problem is that all of the pollsters combine these into "Atlantic Canada" and I'd rather break it down by province, so I've had to do my best guess. The NDP is leading well in the Maritimes, and they will perform as such.

[guyser]

First....whats the prize ?

Maybe a "Get out of Jail card" signed by m Hardner?

"Brilliant one liners or why I am on the couch today" By mdII ?

Of copurse it is raining here today in the centre of the universe , always does on Election Day...or so it seems.

Edited May 2, 2011 by guyser

[Dave_ON]

This is based off of looking at various regional polling statistics and considering that there have been many reports of high turnout especially with youth. One problem is that all of the pollsters combine these into "Atlantic Canada" and I'd rather break it down by province, so I've had to do my best guess. The NDP is leading well in the Maritimes, and they will perform as such.

I'm from NB myself and I have to agree with cybercoma, the NDP just doesn't have the presence there to gain seats. Most are fairly set in their ways, and there is huge CPC support there. I can still remember when the PC's imploded in 93, Elsie Wayne formed half of the PC caucus. She was an extremely popular former Mayor and would have won regardless of what party she ran under. I think you'll find that a lot of support is coming from NS which is skewing the numbers slightly, NDP support is strongest in NS. NB also has a distinct cultural divide that doesn't exist anywhere else in Canada, with a language split of roughly 65/35 English to French. Many of the French ridings traditionally go LPC and the English go CPC. Moncton/Riverview/Dieppe is somewhat unique as there is a very close to equal French/English ratio.

As an aside don't mix up "The Maritimes" with the Atlantic provinces. Maritimes = NB, NS and PEI, the Atlantic provinces includes Newfoundland.

Edited May 2, 2011 by Dave_ON

[Molly]

0 Liberals in Saskatchewan isn't going to happen either. No matter how fine he has cut it from time-to-time, predicting Goodale to lose is a bad bet.

[Moonbox]

I'm going to go with:

158 seats for the CPC

75 seats for the NDP

50 seats for the LPC

25 seats for the bloc

Nittany your 130 seat projection for the NDP looks like pure fantasy. Even EKOS, the polling company with the most generous NDP numbers and least generous CPC numbers, is predicting at worst 133 seats for the Cons and 115 for the dips.

All of the other polling companies are predicting between 143-160 seats for the CPC, with a nasty vote split for the NDP and Liberals. If the results end up around the 150 mark for them, there's a good chance you might have Liberals and Bloc members who narrowly won vs CPC candidates cross the floor to keep Jacko irrelevant and make sure we don't have another election soon.

[cybercoma]

It's absolutely valid for you to assume that. I'm just saying this is the problem with our electoral system. While it seems they should pick up that many seats based on popular support, our elected representatives aren't really representative of voters' beliefs at all. You would think everyone in Alberta is conservative because they vote for the Conservative Party, but there are many thousands of people that don't vote Conservative and are not conservative in their beliefs. The polls do not translate into seats. There are significant differences between the actual members in the House of Commons and the political values of the electorate. I cannot stress enough how broken this makes our system.

In short, projecting seats on public opinion polls is nearly impossible, but you've done the best job you could with the information you have. Sorry to nitpick. I just want you to realize how limited the opinion polls are when trying to determine seats.

[Keepitsimple]

Conservatives 162

NDP 60

Liberals 56

Bloc 30

[Molly]

I don't believe that vote split, will be as bad as Conservatives insist, either. I'm reading the NDP surge as ABC.

[nittanylionstorm07]

First....whats the prize ?

Maybe a "Get out of Jail card" signed by m Hardner?

"Brilliant one liners or why I am on the couch today" By mdII ?

Of copurse it is raining here today in the centre of the universe , always does on Election Day...or so it seems.

A gold star!

I'm from NB myself and I have to agree with cybercoma, the NDP just doesn't have the presence there to gain seats. Most are fairly set in their ways, and there is huge CPC support there. I can still remember when the PC's imploded in 93, Elsie Wayne formed half of the PC caucus. She was an extremely popular former Mayor and would have won regardless of what party she ran under. I think you'll find that a lot of support is coming from NS which is skewing the numbers slightly, NDP support is strongest in NS. NB also has a distinct cultural divide that doesn't exist anywhere else in Canada, with a language split of roughly 65/35 English to French. Many of the French ridings traditionally go LPC and the English go CPC. Moncton/Riverview/Dieppe is somewhat unique as there is a very close to equal French/English ratio.

As an aside don't mix up "The Maritimes" with the Atlantic provinces. Maritimes = NB, NS and PEI, the Atlantic provinces includes Newfoundland.

I think there will be one or two surprises at least in New Brunswick, the rest could easily be balanced out by Nova Scotia and Newfoundland.

Fair enough on that last point.

0 Liberals in Saskatchewan isn't going to happen either. No matter how fine he has cut it from time-to-time, predicting Goodale to lose is a bad bet.

Sask/Manitoba is similar to the Atlantic issue where provinces are lumped together. There is too much momentum, though, in Sask/Man for the NDP.

I'm going to go with:

158 seats for the CPC

75 seats for the NDP

50 seats for the LPC

25 seats for the bloc

Nittany your 130 seat projection for the NDP looks like pure fantasy. Even EKOS, the polling company with the most generous NDP numbers and least generous CPC numbers, is predicting at worst 133 seats for the Cons and 115 for the dips.

All of the other polling companies are predicting between 143-160 seats for the CPC, with a nasty vote split for the NDP and Liberals. If the results end up around the 150 mark for them, there's a good chance you might have Liberals and Bloc members who narrowly won vs CPC candidates cross the floor to keep Jacko irrelevant and make sure we don't have another election soon.

Okay? I didn't start with 130. I started with each province and then added up the numbers. Basing it solely off polling is not good... you have to also include who is turning out to vote... and it's looking like a lot of youth vote.

It's absolutely valid for you to assume that. I'm just saying this is the problem with our electoral system. While it seems they should pick up that many seats based on popular support, our elected representatives aren't really representative of voters' beliefs at all. You would think everyone in Alberta is conservative because they vote for the Conservative Party, but there are many thousands of people that don't vote Conservative and are not conservative in their beliefs. The polls do not translate into seats. There are significant differences between the actual members in the House of Commons and the political values of the electorate. I cannot stress enough how broken this makes our system.

In short, projecting seats on public opinion polls is nearly impossible, but you've done the best job you could with the information you have. Sorry to nitpick. I just want you to realize how limited the opinion polls are when trying to determine seats.

The FPTP system is indeed broken, and you all need some sort of instant runoff system.

Appreciate the last paragraph. I think this is a new circumstance where the NDP will turn out higher than expected based off of the youth vote and traditional non-voters turning out.

[ToadBrother]

TOTALS:

Conservative Party of Canada 127

New Democratic Party 130

Liberal Party of Canada 39

Bloc Quebecois 11

Green Party of Canada 1

While the NDP will do well, they will not do nearly that well. I really can't see them cracking 100. But, we'll know, at least for the most part, by around 11pm Pacific.

[ToadBrother]

Conservatives 162

NDP 60

Liberals 56

Bloc 30

Is that your guess or your fantasy? Despite getting back up to around 37%, I think a betting man would not very likely accept the likelihood of a Tory majority.

[PIK]

Conservatives 158

NDP 45

Liberals 66

Bloc 39

[ToadBrother]

Conservatives 158

NDP 45

Liberals 66

Bloc 39

And by what fantasy do you concoct that result? Do you just make idiotic numbers up that make you feel better?

Edited May 2, 2011 by ToadBrother

[cybercoma]

My final seat projection.

NDP 307

CPC 0

LPC 0

BQ 0

GRN 1

I've decided Elizabeth May will get her seat.

[amorris1123]

I like the way you think my friend. GO NDP! I've already cast my vote, whether the NDP comes out of this as a minority government or the official opposition it will be a memorable day in canadian politics!

[cybercoma]

hear hear!

[Dave_ON]

And by what fantasy do you concoct that result? Do you just make idiotic numbers up that make you feel better?

Morning TB, my day doesn't feel started until I read one of your dose of reality posts

[August1991]

CPC 150

BQ 8

LPC 41

NDP 108

Ind 1

BC CPC 24, NDP 12

Alberta CPC 27, NDP 1

Saskatchewan CPC 13, NDP 1

Manitoba CPC 10, LPC 1, NDP 3

Ontario CPC 54, LPC 20, NDP 32

Quebec BQ 8, CPC 6, LPC 9, NDP 51, Ind 1

NB CPC 6, LPC 3, NDP 1

PEI CPC 2, LPC 2

NS CPC 4, LPC 3, NDP 4

Nfld CPC 3, LPC 2, NDP 2

Terr CPC 1, LPC 1, NDP 1

I might have underestimated the Bloc and overestimated the Liberals/NDP in Quebec. For the Tories, Max Bernier will at least keep his seat. I think Arthur will stay in Ottawa.

Goodale might keep his seat. I think the Liberals will be shut out of BC (but whadda I know about voters in Vancouver).

Picking seat totals in Ontario is like picking lottery numbers. The vote splits make it impossible but I reckon that the Liberals will keep a Toronto core.

NB and PEI seem the only places in Canada to have escaped the NDP surge.

Edited May 2, 2011 by August1991

[Hydraboss]

CPC 157

NDP 67

Lib 56

Bloc 27

Green 1

Still holding out that the death of Osama Bin Hiding may give a small bump to a couple of teeter-totter ridings.

[Molly]

Picking seat totals in Ontario is like picking lottery numbers. The vote splits make it impossible but I reckon that the Liberals will keep a Toronto core.

That's why I'm not even going to try on this one. Rural Ontario stays Tory blue, but beyond that, it's as good as guessing jellybeans in a jar.

In a few selected places, though: I do predict Goodale keeps his seat, AND that two more Sask seats will go NDP. I'm guessing Ms. May will become a parliamentarian, and no one will be more surprised by that than she.... and overall, the polls won't hold up for the NDP. I said it someplace else, but it looks like ABC to me, Vote numbers will be a lot higher than usual, Tory vote numbers will change almost not at all, but whoever is the best bet to beat them will get all of the increase and half the votes that the other parties would expect.

It will be ugly for the LPC, but nothing like as bad as everyone is predicting. The votes they keep will be focussed in winnable ridings. And it will be very uncomfortable for the Conservatives. Their seat count will fall tooooooooo.... 136.

[Moonbox]

And by what fantasy do you concoct that result? Do you just make idiotic numbers up that make you feel better?

A compilation of the polling companies are suggesting similar results. Are you freaking out because you don't like the results, or is your protest based on something?

http://www.electionalmanac.com/canada/