Will Layton form a coalition if NDP finish 2nd place?

[Moonlight Graham]

With the recent flip in voter support for the Liberals/NDP and this recent NDP surge in the polls showing a strong possibility that the NDP may finish with the 2nd most seats and that the CPC could very well get another minority, this is an important question to ask:

Would Layton attempt to form a coalition if NDP finishes 2nd place?

Surprisingly, i have personally heard nothing about this issue being asked to Layton by the media in the last week or so since the NDP surge. It was important for voter and the media to ask about Ignatieff's intentions of a coalition, and it is equally important that voters know Layton's intentions.

As of now, with Layton seemingly eager to be in any sort of power-sharing coalition deal in the past, I would suspect odds are high that he would try to form a coalition if the NDP finish with the 2nd-most seats and the CPC fails to win a majority. And even if Layton didn't do it at the outset, he could attempt a coalition within the next year or 2 (or 3?) before the next federal election.

[ToadBrother]

As of now, with Layton seemingly eager to be in any sort of power-sharing coalition deal in the past, I would suspect odds are high that he would try to form a coalition if the NDP finish with the 2nd-most seats and the CPC fails to win a majority. And even if Layton didn't do it at the outset, he could attempt a coalition within the next year or 2 (or 3?) before the next federal election.

Precedent sets the timeframe after an election for forming a coalition pretty low, probably no more than 6 to 9 months on most. If a government is defeated after that period, the Governor General will most likely call an election rather than ask someone else to form a government.

[Pliny]

If the NDP do come in second as your premise is then Layton won't be able to form one with the BQ or he will face vilification and Iggy will be so insensed he won't be talking to him.

[Moonbox]

If Jack finishes second and the Liberals support him then he'd have little to no chance of governing.

The CPC would fight tooth and nail against him, the Bloc would villify them and the Liberals would be ruining themselves by supporting them.

Jack needs a majority or close to it to have any chance.

[nittanylionstorm07]

If Jack finishes second and the Liberals support him then he'd have little to no chance of governing.

The CPC would fight tooth and nail against him, the Bloc would villify them and the Liberals would be ruining themselves by supporting them.

Jack needs a majority or close to it to have any chance.

This post makes less than zero sense.

Considering he would have a majority if that happened, how would he have "little to no chance" at governing?

...and how would the Liberals ruining themselves by supporting the NDP hurt the NDP? If anything, it helps the NDP.

[ToadBrother]

If Jack finishes second and the Liberals support him then he'd have little to no chance of governing.

The CPC would fight tooth and nail against him, the Bloc would villify them and the Liberals would be ruining themselves by supporting them.

Jack needs a majority or close to it to have any chance.

Could you give me the math behind this.

Let's say that the NDP win 100 seats. I doubt it will be that high, but if the trends continue and there isn't a last minute drop, it isn't in the realm of impossibility. Let's say the Liberals retain 60 or 65 seats. That may not be so whacky. If the Liberals did decide to join forces with the NDP (I also doubt this and I've given my reasoning elsewhere), that would push them over the magic 155 mark (remember, there has to be a speaker, and despite Milliken's tenure, normally the government supplies the Speaker). They wouldn't need the Bloc at all.

So much of what happens between May 3rd and the Throne Speech depends on the next few days, so while we can sit here and make up fantasy scenarios like mine, or pet our favorite partisan cat like some are doing, but nobody knows for sure. We see a definite pro-NDP trend that no one can deny, and the Tories and Liberals have clearly come around to the idea that the NDP are a serious danger. I don't think the NDP can carry it to a government, but nobody thought we'd be faced with this nail biter, so I think all the pundits, including those daffy seat projection guys or us, really bloody well knows.

[KeyStone]

If Jack finishes second and the Liberals support him then he'd have little to no chance of governing.

The CPC would fight tooth and nail against him, the Bloc would villify them and the Liberals would be ruining themselves by supporting them.

Jack needs a majority or close to it to have any chance.

I don't think there would be a coalition. They'll let the Cons form government, but they will be on a tight leash.

[Moonbox]

Let's say that the NDP win 100 seats. I doubt it will be that high, but if the trends continue and there isn't a last minute drop, it isn't in the realm of impossibility. Let's say the Liberals retain 60 or 65 seats. That may not be so whacky.

That's where your math pretty much ends there. If the NDP wins 100 seats it would be at the Liberal's and the Bloc's expense. Considering the Liberals ended with 77 seats with 26% support last year, and that they'll be splitting a vote with the NDP, the math doesn't even come close to 60 seats. They're looking at catastrophic losses and ending up with at best maybe 50 and possibly as low as 30. Best case projections right now are 100 seats for the NDP but history has shown us that the vote doesn't usually materialize.

The Conservatives would still be able to run the government and Harper would place nice with Quebec throwing them favors in order to get the Parliament votes needed to pass law. Duceppe could support Harper based on these favors saying he is doing things for Quebec and both parties would probably end up gaining support in Quebec.

If the Liberals did decide to join forces with the NDP (I also doubt this and I've given my reasoning elsewhere), that would push them over the magic 155 mark (remember, there has to be a speaker, and despite Milliken's tenure, normally the government supplies the Speaker). They wouldn't need the Bloc at all.

Regardless of the math I highly doubt that the Liberals would survive joining up with the NDP. It would further legitimize them and set up Layton as the natural alternative for Harper. I think it would be far more likely the Liberals support Harper than Layton, or that the party breaks up altogether like the PC's did split between them, before Ignatieff makes Layton PM.

We see a definite pro-NDP trend that no one can deny, and the Tories and Liberals have clearly come around to the idea that the NDP are a serious danger. I don't think the NDP can carry it to a government, but nobody thought we'd be faced with this nail biter, so I think all the pundits, including those daffy seat projection guys or us, really bloody well knows.

I think the rise of the NDP in the polls is more protest than anything. It's an anti-Harper vote and it's materialized because Ignatieff is every bit as ineffective as Dion was but probably even more unlikable. The Liberal Party appears to be self destructing and it's kind of sad to see to be honest.

[fellowtraveller]

Are you kidding?

If Layton finishes second to a Tory Minority he'll be camped on the Governor Generals lawn before sundown on May 2. He'll say, do or promise anything to anybody to be PM. Obviously.

His only other option is to enjoy months or years of the Dion Diet, which consists solely of turd sandwiches forcefed to him by Harper.

When has Layton ever not wanted to be relevant for the first time in NDP history? He'll do it if the Libs or Bloc finished second too. The Bloc would leap like trout to be part of anything that gets them a seat at The Big Table. The Liberals need badly to be in the news until they can replace Iggy, and that is better done from govt than the backbenches, so they'll do it too. Iggy may have promised not to be part of a coalition, but none of the potential interim leaders of the Libs said that...

The only outcomes now are: Tory majority or Iggy/Jack as PM. You pick 'em.

[ToadBrother]

Are you kidding?

If Layton finishes second to a Tory Minority he'll be camped on the Governor Generals lawn before sundown on May 2. He'll say, do or promise anything to anybody to be PM. Obviously.

As would anyone in his position with a minority government being returned. Do you think Harper, if he were in Jack's shoes, wouldn't be doing the same thing?

His only other option is to enjoy months or years of the Dion Diet, which consists solely of turd sandwiches forcefed to him by Harper.

When has Layton ever not wanted to be relevant for the first time in NDP history? He'll do it if the Libs or Bloc finished second too. The Bloc would leap like trout to be part of anything that gets them a seat at The Big Table. The Liberals need badly to be in the news until they can replace Iggy, and that is better done from govt than the backbenches, so they'll do it too. Iggy may have promised not to be part of a coalition, but none of the potential interim leaders of the Libs said that...

The only outcomes now are: Tory majority or Iggy/Jack as PM. You pick 'em.

Whatever happens, Iggy will not be PM.

Edited April 29, 2011 by ToadBrother

[Moonbox]

The Liberals need badly to be in the news until they can replace Iggy, and that is better done from govt than the backbenches, so they'll do it too. Iggy may have promised not to be part of a coalition, but none of the potential interim leaders of the Libs said that...

The only outcomes now are: Tory majority or Iggy/Jack as PM. You pick 'em.

Jack has taken his seats mostly from the Liberals and the Bloc. How likely do you think it is that they'll want to legitimize him? If they did support him it would only be long enough for him to embarrass himself with a budget which would fail and provide them with the ammunition they'd need to roast him.

Edited April 29, 2011 by Moonbox

[fellowtraveller]

As would anyone in his position with a minority government being returned. Do you think Harper, if he were in Jack's shoes, wouldn't be doing the same thing?

???? But Harper didn't . Neither did Dion or Ignatieff. try again. Times have changed.

Jack has taken his seats mostly from the Liberals and the Bloc. How likely do you think it is that they'll want to legitimize him? If they did support him it would only be long enough for him to embarrass himself with a budget which would fail and provide them with the ammunition they'd need to roast him

They don't care about legitimizing Layton, they care about survival and legitimizing themselves.

The alternative is to spend another 5 years eating nicely buttered and toasted shit sandwiches served gleefully by the Tories, and they have all had their fill of that. Why else would they trump up an election now? Can you imahgine after all a quick passage of the exact same budget? Because that is what Harper will table, and the Ooposition will have to pretend to bluster about and then pass. Won't happen.

No, it is either a coalition, sorry A Cooperative. or a Tory majority. Nothing else can stand.

Either way, we are all going to be poorer soon, actually and figuratively.

Despite what Layton thinks of himself, he is not Obama. Yes We Can!!! Eh, no you cannot.

Edited April 29, 2011 by fellowtraveller

[RNG]

???? But Harper didn't . Neither did Dion or Ignatieff. Despite what Layton thinks of himself, he is not Obama. Yes We Can!!! Eh, no you cannot.

It seems to me, and even most of the non-rabid Democrats that the consensus is that Obama can't either. But we all have hope that there will be change.

[Moonlight Graham]

I think my main point this thread is that Layton MUST be asked of his intentions about whether or not he will attempt to form a coalition government in such a situation. The media must pin this question on him before the election so us voters know what to expect (or hold him to account if he lies).

This is a HUGE question that has, at least to my knowledge, not been directly addressed by Layton. It may make all the difference in how i vote on Monday.

Edited April 30, 2011 by Moonlight Graham

[wyly]

I think all the pundits, including those daffy seat projection guys or us, really bloody well knows.

100% agree

[wyly]

I think my main point this thread is that Layton MUST be asked of his intentions about whether or not he will attempt to form a coalition government in such a situation. The media must pin this question on him before the election so us voters know what to expect (or hold him to account if he lies).

This is a HUGE question that has, at least to my knowledge, not been directly addressed by Layton. It may make all the difference in how i vote on Monday.

where is this rule written down?...it doesn't exist in any other democracy that I'm aware of...you can't know if there will be need for a coalition until after the event and every party goes into the election with the intention of governing alone...

[ToadBrother]

where is this rule written down?...it doesn't exist in any other democracy that I'm aware of...you can't know if there will be need for a coalition until after the event and every party goes into the election with the intention of governing alone...

There is no such rule. You can't possibly consider, let alone negotiate a coalition until the ballots are counted and you know where you and everyone else stands. The Tories and their supporters are desperately trying to make this an issue, but anyone who spends more than about three seconds thinking about it realizes just how moronic the claim is.

[Smallc]

The Tories and their supporters are desperately trying to make this an issue, but anyone who spends more than about three seconds thinking about it realizes just how moronic the claim is.

And that was one of my main reasons for changing my vote. I don't like Jack Layton, I don't agree with everything the NDP says, but I can't stand the Conservative mistruths or their hypocrisy.

[Mr.Canada]

Layton will change Canada forever when he becomes PM sometime later this year. Massive tax hikes to job creators. Massive gas tax increases. I guess only rich people can afford to drive cars. Massive gov't bureaucracies creating national daycare programs, national pharmacare programs and national housing strategies not to mention national transit commissions. These things aren't free my friends. the NDP are selling us a bill of goods that we simply cannot afford.

Where will Layton get the $70 BILLION + needed to fund his pet projects? Why from us silly, the middle class. The largest demographic of suckers our society has.

[Mr.Canada]

Layton will change Canada forever when he becomes PM sometime later this year. Massive tax hikes to job creators. Massive gas tax increases. I guess only rich people can afford to drive cars. Massive gov't bureaucracies creating national daycare programs, national pharmacare programs and national housing strategies not to mention national transit commissions. These things aren't free my friends. the NDP are selling us a bill of goods that we simply cannot afford.

Where will Layton get the $70 BILLION + needed to fund his pet projects? Why from us silly, the middle class. The largest demographic of suckers our society has.

Let's not forget that he'll weaken our military as well. Plus his party disapproves of Israel and takes Palestinians side over Jews at every opportunity. They don't view Hamas or Hezbollah as terrorist groups either. Maybe he'll make a trip to Palestine to meet the Hamas leader.

Edited April 30, 2011 by Mr.Canada

[ToadBrother]

Layton will change Canada forever when he becomes PM sometime later this year. Massive tax hikes to job creators. Massive gas tax increases. I guess only rich people can afford to drive cars....

Then you have nothing to worry about. Many times here you've bragged about your wealth.

[Mr.Canada]

Then you have nothing to worry about. Many times here you've bragged about your wealth.

I've never done that to the best of my knowledge plus we're not wealthy. I would say comfortable. If something breaks or needs repair we don't have to save to fix or replace it but we cannot go out and buy a jet either.

I believe it was smallc or guyser who keep going on about buying out some relative in a multi million dollar company or some such. Pretty sure you're thinking of smallc.

[Smallc]

I believe it was smallc or guyser who keep going on about buying out some relative in a multi million dollar company or some such. Pretty sure you're thinking of smallc.

Me, and I didn't pay a multi million dollar price. It's a family thing. The revenue is in the millions. The profit makes me comfortable for this area, and average for the country.

[Mr.Canada]

Me, and I didn't pay a multi million dollar price. It's a family thing. The revenue is in the millions. The profit makes me comfortable for this area, and average for the country.

Yeah, ok. I thought it was you who was throwing around the million dollar price tag quite a bit. Nothing wrong with that we need business to be successful in this country.

[Uncle 3 dogs]

I think my main point this thread is that Layton MUST be asked of his intentions about whether or not he will attempt to form a coalition government in such a situation. The media must pin this question on him before the election so us voters know what to expect (or hold him to account if he lies).

This is a HUGE question that has, at least to my knowledge, not been directly addressed by Layton. It may make all the difference in how i vote on Monday.

Why? Presumably if you vote NDP it's because you want to see their policies implemented, and a coalition is a perfectly reasonable way to accomplish that.