The NDP Hysteria Is A Farce

[ToadBrother]

Another thought. As people begin to take seriously the possibilty of the NDP actually winning, or at least, winning enough to take power in a coalition, there are a lot of people out there who could get wary and decide they can't afford to vote Liberal, but will switch to the Tories to try to ensure they get a majority so as to block Layton from power.

It's the only real hope the Tories have of forming a slim majority, but honestly, the Nanos poll is outdated and I think you'll find the next few days put the Tories square in the mid-30s, and only the most extreme kind of vote splitting could deliver them a slim majority, so I'd say a majority of any kind is out of the question, and the Tories will in fact have a hard time holding on to their current seat count. Not only that, but come May 3rd, they're going to have to face finding a way to keep an ambitious NDP from trying to give them the boot.

[TTM]

It's the only real hope the Tories have of forming a slim majority, but honestly, the Nanos poll is outdated and I think you'll find the next few days put the Tories square in the mid-30s, and only the most extreme kind of vote splitting could deliver them a slim majority, so I'd say a majority of any kind is out of the question, and the Tories will in fact have a hard time holding on to their current seat count. Not only that, but come May 3rd, they're going to have to face finding a way to keep an ambitious NDP from trying to give them the boot.

As it stands now I think that unless the Conservative vote collapses significantly in Ontario over the next couple of days, that they will likely pick up seats there due to vote splitting. But it looks like these gains will be offset by losses elsewhere.

It's amusing that a surging Liberal party would have little effect in the Conservative heartland (AL, SK), since the NDP are for the most part the second choice party here. But with a surging NDP there is a chance of prying a few (perhaps as many as 5 or 6) seats from the Tories in these provinces. I'm curious to see what happens on election day. I recently had a colleague who views himself as a staunch Conservative indicate that he was going to vote NDP this time around.

I wonder what the effect of the very large advanced poll turnout will have on the "Orange surge". It will be interesting to see the results from the advanced polls compared to those who vote on election night.

[ToadBrother]

I wonder what the effect of the very large advanced poll turnout will have on the "Orange surge". It will be interesting to see the results from the advanced polls compared to those who vote on election night.

I dunno. Part of me has this gut instinct that the advanced polls may favor the Tories, but I'm afraid we're going to have to sit on that one.

[Wild Bill]

Those are the results from 2008. Show me where the Tories could possibly pick up seats, because from that, they have clearly maxed out their potential in Ontario.

Try this link:

http://www.sfu.ca/~aheard/elections/2008-ONT.html

I won't spend the time for you but if you care to just click on "ONT" you'll get the actual vote numbers and percentages for every riding in Ontario for 2008. In just a few pages I spotted a number of ridings where it is perfectly obvious that if Jack is stealing much of the Liberal vote the Tories will likely win!

If you scroll through ALL the pages you can get your own total. As I said, I won't spend the time doing it for you. After all, you're the one who doesn't believe it so you should find out for yourself.

[Moonbox]

The other thing to consider is that the uneducated and non-tax paying NDP vote tends to not show up when the actual ballots are cast. It's a sexy thing to say that you're voting for Jack Layton but when you have to actually have a shower, get on the bus and make the trip over (possibly even wait in line), the support always seems to drop off. Curious.

[cybercoma]

The other thing to consider is that the uneducated and non-tax paying NDP vote tends to not show up when the actual ballots are cast. It's a sexy thing to say that you're voting for Jack Layton but when you have to actually have a shower, get on the bus and make the trip over (possibly even wait in line), the support always seems to drop off. Curious.

What an ignorant pile of crap. I thought this forum was moderated.

[Wild Bill]

What an ignorant pile of crap. I thought this forum was moderated.

Well, his model is rather derogatory but his point is valid. The NDp historically has not had the strongest voter turnout.

[TimG]

What an ignorant pile of crap. I thought this forum was moderated.

No worse than the crap posted about conservative supporters. I don't recall you getting exercised about that...

[Moonbox]

What an ignorant pile of crap. I thought this forum was moderated.

What's ignorant about it? The unemployed and uneducated, according to Harris Decima, is one of the groups they identify as being most likely to agree to the telephone polling. The response rate is less than 15% and they rarely get an educated person to answer. I don't think there's any question who the unemployed and uneducated say they'd vote for. They're also one of the least likely groups to make the effort to go vote. It's too much work I guess....

Students are another group who poll high for NDP but then don't show up. That's fact.

We have about 30 years of elections to support that.

So again I'll ask, aside from my mild mockery, what's ignorant about what I'm saying?

Did you, perhaps, take exception to my mild rhetoric and exaggeration? I apologize. I suppose I was getting annoyed with the rabid influx of delusional NDP supporters here lately, and their even more ridiculous anti-Harper rhetoric.

Get over it and don't be upset when NDP numbers turn out way lower than 100 seats.

Edited April 29, 2011 by Moonbox

[KeyStone]

They haven't at all maxed out their potential in Ontario. In many of those ridings, if the Conservative vote stays somewhat similar, but the Liberal vote falls just a little, you're looking at Conservative pickups. Because in many of those Liberal ridings, the NDP vote might go up, but not nearly enough to win, just enough to clear the way for a Conservative candidate. It's just simple math.

I think you're missing the point with over-generalization.

While in theory, the idea of the votes being split between Libs and NDP allows the Cons to win, if you look at the individual polls, you'll see that there really isn't much in the way of polls to gain. They aren't getting a single seat in Toronto, but will repeat in much of 905 and other Ontario. They'll get shut out in Hamilton, and have some success in Ottawa.

It doesn't matter if you win by 15 votes of 20,000. It's still just one seat.

But you're free to prove us all wrong by pointing out which Toronto seats the Cons are going to win.

They have a shot in Eglington Lawrence and York Centre.In 905, there are about 5 seats in play for the Cons to pick up.

That doesn't come close to making up for all the seats they are going to lose in Quebec, BC, and the Prairies.

[Scotty]

What an ignorant pile of crap. I thought this forum was moderated.

Moderated doesn't mean you get to stop people from speaking an opinion which offends you.

Not until Jack gets a majority of course, and then passes laws banning free speech where it offends people.

[ToadBrother]

Moderated doesn't mean you get to stop people from speaking an opinion which offends you.

Not until Jack gets a majority of course, and then passes laws banning free speech where it offends people.

It will fall right in line with Harper's attempts to pass laws banning Parliament from demanding what it wants from him.

[betsy]

I'm hoping that at the last moment, people will listen to common sense and better judgement will prevail. Jack is charismatic and personable. He is a very likeable person....and I do like him....but his ideology is not the right one for Canada. Charisma is not what we need.

People who'll vote for Jack Layton think only of all the social programs they'll get when he gets to govern. Layton will raise taxes. However, they fail to realise that investors will not come to Canada, and businesses will get affected, if not suffer greatly. Companies will be forced to downsize, or move elsewhere....which means more people will lose their jobs.

Jack will have to raise more taxes....to make up for the lost of taxes from those lost jobs!

Economists are saying NDP will be catastrophic for our economy!

Political analysts are saying this surge is a protest to the Liberals, Conservatives and Bloc.

I hope they don't take their protests all the way to the polling stations on Monday.....and hopefully they heed the saying: "Don't bite your nose to spite your face". Otherwise, 6 months or a year from now, no one will be laughing!

Edited April 30, 2011 by betsy

[Sandy MacNab]

Shady is correct as usual. There are some hysterical political leaders out there right now.

No 1 is Harper

No 2 is Ignatieff

No 3 is Duceppe

Yeah? Layton gets all giggely and rather foolish when he publically daydreams about being PM. It may not be hysteria but he certainly loses control of himself.

[Evening Star]

Economists are saying NDP will be catastrophic for our economy!

Cite? Investors don't seem to think so, especially:

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/globe-investor/global-investors-eye-ndps-surge-in-canada/article2001368/

In fact, the weakening of the Bloc seems good for investment. Even the G&M Economy Lab, while not terribly supportive of the NDP, sees little potential for harm:

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/report-on-business/economy/economy-lab/stephen-gordon/economic-impact-of-ndp-win-not-much/article2000370/

[betsy]

Cite? Investors don't seem to think so, especially:

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/globe-investor/global-investors-eye-ndps-surge-in-canada/article2001368/

In fact, the weakening of the Bloc seems good for investment. Even the G&M Economy Lab, while not terribly supportive of the NDP, sees little potential for harm:

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/report-on-business/economy/economy-lab/stephen-gordon/economic-impact-of-ndp-win-not-much/article2000370/

The reality check will start on the morning we wake up to an NDP-led government, finding it was not just a bad dream.

NDP surge leaves Bay Street leery

Tim Shufelt, Financial Post · Apr. 27, 2011 | Last Updated: Apr. 27, 2011 8:06 AM ET

Markets, apparently accustomed to an unsteady Parliament, have proven mostly indifferent to the campaign.

But if there's one turn of events that could pique the interest of corporate Canada, it's the prospect of an NDP government.

"It opens up a lot of uncertainty," said Ted Macklin, a fund manager at Torontobased Guardian Capital L.P. "If we end up with an NDP government, it could be a big reality check in Canada."

Amid the NDP's remarkable surge in popularity, that outcome is now at least being considered within the realm of possibilities.

Many stars would have to align for such an extraordinary scenario. But Stephen Harper's opponents have said little to indicate the 41st Parliament would be a harmonious affair.

"That uncertainty could cause at least a little bit of turmoil on the markets," said Doug Porter, deputy chief economist at BMO Capital Markets.

Add to that the NDP's rising fortunes, which could well translate into greater influence in Ottawa, amounting to a combination of instability and NDP clout that might not sit well with Canadian business, said Camilla Sutton, chief currency strategist at Scotia Capital.

While the dollar has yet to take notice of the shifting tides, concern is rising on Bay Street, where the memory of Bob Rae's provincial NDP rule remains fresh, Mr. Macklin said.

The NDP's platform has promised $70-billion in new spending, to be financed by a cap-and-trade system and a hike in the corporate tax rate to 19.5% from 16.5%.

"Canada is otherwise very well positioned right now from the point of view of taxation," Mr. Macklin said. If Mr. Layton's proposed revisions to the tax regime become more likely, markets would not respond favourably.

"Right now, I'd suggest the markets aren't taking it seriously, but if it becomes more of a possibility, we'll see a lot more analysis in that area," he said.

[email protected]

http://www.financialpost.com/news/features/surge+leaves+Street+leery/4680264/story.html

It's up to the undecided voters right now (and to the Liberal supporters who've yet to vote) where the country would go on Tuesday morning. You guys hold our future in your hands - good or bad.

Will you give the Conservatives - grudgingly and reluctantly - the majority to give the Party a chance to prove itself (keeping in mind that should you find Harper did not live up to his promise, there is always an election in 4 years to replace him with your own Party)....

or....

Will you throw the dice and hand the power to the NDP (whther it be a minority government or a coalition), even though everyone knows their costing is questionable - even your own Party says so!

Will you let us continue with our baby-steps to recoverey (at least we are recovering and did not suffer greatly as other nations)....or will you gamble and let the NDP dismantle what little recovery we've gotten to so far and take us to God-knows-where!

We're already one of the highest tax-paying people in the world. Do we really want more tax-hikes?

Edited April 30, 2011 by betsy

[TTM]

Will you give the Conservatives - grudgingly and reluctantly - the majority to give the Party a chance to prove itself

He's had 5 years to prove himself. A Harper Conservative government is a well known quantity. That is why they have hit a ceiling in the high thirties.

or....

Will you throw the dice and hand the power to the NDP (whther it be a minority government or a coalition), even though everyone knows their costing is questionable - even your own Party says so!

Every one of the parties platforms costing is questionable.

Will you let us continue with our baby-steps to recoverey (at least we are recovering and did not suffer greatly as other nations)....

Thanks as much to the Liberal/NDP proposed recovery package, existing banking rules, and a solid financial basis provided by the former Liberal government, as to anything the Conservatives did.

or will you gamble and let the NDP dismantle what little recovery we've gotten to so far and take us to God-knows-where!

Change is scary therefore we should never change. Is this the NDP hysteria refered to in this thread?

We're already one of the highest tax-paying people in the world. Do we really want more tax-hikes?

Thats a blatant lie, unless you include the developing and third world nations. We are nowhere near the highest tax-paying people in the developed world.

[nittanylionstorm07]

Change is scary therefore we should never change. Is this the NDP hysteria refered to in this thread?

This is the basis of all conservative thinking.

[wyly]

What would you expect them to do? Many insiders say that they're close to panic.

yup I heard the same from a journalist who spoke with some conservative insiders, they put on a brave confident show but they're very worried, without a majority it's going to be PM Jack...and ya the conservatives would prefer to have the election sooner than later because everyday the ndp keeps sucking in more liberal votes, were this campaign to go to May 7th we might be looking at a ndp majority...

[DrGreenthumb]

yup I heard the same from a journalist who spoke with some conservative insiders, they put on a brave confident show but they're very worried, without a majority it's going to be PM Jack...and ya the conservatives would prefer to have the election sooner than later because everyday the ndp keeps sucking in more liberal votes, were this campaign to go to May 7th we might be looking at a ndp majority...

An NDP majority? Sounds fantastic to me!

[Shady]

yup I heard the same from a journalist who spoke with some conservative insiders

Not after today's polls.

May 7th we might be looking at a ndp majority...

Yep, and the Leafs are gonna win the Cup this spring.

[CANADIEN]

yup I heard the same from a journalist who spoke with some conservative insiders, they put on a brave confident show but they're very worried, without a majority it's going to be PM Jack...and ya the conservatives would prefer to have the election sooner than later because everyday the ndp keeps sucking in more liberal votes, were this campaign to go to May 7th we might be looking at a ndp majority...

What I find the most interesting with all the hysteria about the NDP is that, in nthe event Harper does not have a majority on Monday, Layton will not be the next PM. What I expect would happen is Harper staying in power with Liberal or Bloc support, the next budget being a bit (but not substancially) different than the one submitted in March, both Harper and Ignatieff being gone in one year or two.

The NDP would likely need the support of both the Liberals and the Bloc. I don't see it happening. The NDP is the last part the Bloc would be likely to support right after the election, and Duceppe too will be on the way out.

[nittanylionstorm07]

Not after today's polls.

Yep, and the Leafs are gonna win the Cup this spring.

If you bury your head any further, you'll start drowning in the Indian Ocean.

[wyly]

What I find the most interesting with all the hysteria about the NDP is that, in nthe event Harper does not have a majority on Monday, Layton will not be the next PM. What I expect would happen is Harper staying in power with Liberal or Bloc support, the next budget being a bit (but not substancially) different than the one submitted in March, both Harper and Ignatieff being gone in one year or two.

The NDP would likely need the support of both the Liberals and the Bloc. I don't see it happening. The NDP is the last part the Bloc would be likely to support right after the election, and Duceppe too will be on the way out.

possible but the liberals have more in common with the ndp than the conservatives on policy...if iggy is on his way out why not stick it to the conservatives with a coalition (I would) he won't be around afterward so what does he care, he'll end up with a nice cabinet post in the coalition and he'll probably qualify for a mp pension...

[CANADIEN]

If you bury your head any further, you'll start drowning in the Indian Ocean.

The Conservatives will sure win some additional seats in Ontario, but not more than 10 or so. EVen with keeping their numbers elsewhere in the country, that would not be enough to give them a majority. Especially when they gotta lose some in BC and Quebec. Realistically, how many more seats are they gonna win in Alberta?