The NDP Hysteria Is A Farce

[Shady]

University of Toronto political science professor Nelson Wiseman said the NDP “tsunami” that has crashed into Quebec has not hit with the same force in other parts of Canada – important for determining the final outcome on May 2.

“We haven’t had a nuclear meltdown in the rest of the country and I’m not sure it’s going to come,” he said.

Wiseman said there tends to be a “tipping point” between 30-40 per cent in terms of how support translates into seat counts. He expects the Conservatives will make a massive advertising blitz in the final days of the campaign, but says the party sees the NDP’s Jack Layton as an ally of sorts because he is “eating the Liberals’ lunch.”

Ekos

The rise of support of the NDP just means a greater vote split, and an even better chance Conservatives can win in ridings they wouldn't necessarily have won before.

[bud]

it could also mean that the NDP will become the main opposition party to the minority harper government and then create a coalition to bring communism into canada.

time to become hysterical shady.

Edited April 27, 2011 by bud

[cybercoma]

Do you even know what communism is? Maybe you should look it up before making such a stupid comment.

[Harry]

Shady is correct as usual. There are some hysterical political leaders out there right now.

No 1 is Harper

No 2 is Ignatieff

No 3 is Duceppe

Edited April 27, 2011 by Harry

[nittanylionstorm07]

The rise of support of the NDP just means a greater vote split, and an even better chance Conservatives can win in ridings they wouldn't necessarily have won before.

I take it time left you back about a week and a half ago?

[nittanylionstorm07]

Shady is correct as usual. There are some hysterical political leaders out there right now.

No 1 is Harper

No 2 is Ignatieff

No 3 is Duceppe

I'd put Iggy a number 1. He is beyond hysterical at this point.

[cybercoma]

The Nile is a river in Egypt.

[Shady]

I take it time left you back about a week and a half ago?

Nope. I'm looking at Conservatives trending up in Ontario. That's where Harper's majority exists. Provincial polls are much more important than overall national ones. And the greater the vote splitting between the Liberals and NDP, the more seats Conservatives can win. Perhaps logic left you a while ago?

[Shwa]

The Nile is a river in Egypt.

You mean "de Nile?"

[Shady]

Ontario as of yesterday:

Conservatives at 47%

Liberals at 25%

NDP at 21%

That's the ballgame folks.

[cybercoma]

You mean "de Nile?"

No, I mean denial.

[nittanylionstorm07]

Nope. I'm looking at Conservatives trending up in Ontario. That's where Harper's majority exists. Provincial polls are much more important than overall national ones. And the greater the vote splitting between the Liberals and NDP, the more seats Conservatives can win. Perhaps logic left you a while ago?

First, the last few polls have shown a shallow decrease in support for the Tories in Ontario, look it up. Second, it is quite likely that those increased numbers from the 2008 election are located in already Tory-held places, solidifying their lead over Liberals in those ridings. The NDP are edging out the Liberals in ridings that matter now in the GTA... this is where the change in seats is occurring, the Tories may get only 1-2 seats from the Liberals from their increase.

Ontario as of yesterday:

Conservatives at 47%

Liberals at 25%

NDP at 21%

That's the ballgame folks.

You have a fundamental lack of understanding of how FPTP works.

[Shwa]

No, I mean denial.

[Shady]

First, the last few polls have shown a shallow decrease in support for the Tories in Ontario, look it up. Second, it is quite likely that those increased numbers from the 2008 election are located in already Tory-held places, solidifying their lead over Liberals in those ridings. The NDP are edging out the Liberals in ridings that matter now in the GTA... this is where the change in seats is occurring, the Tories may get only 1-2 seats from the Liberals from their increase.

You have a fundamental lack of understanding of how FPTP works.

Denial ain't just a river in Egypt. I'm sorry to have to burst your hysteria induced bubble. But at almost 50% support in Ontario, I believe the term is game, set, and match. No matter how many votes the NDP manage to gain from the anti-Canadian Quebec voting block.

[nittanylionstorm07]

Denial ain't just a river in Egypt.

Mirror, much?

I'm sorry to have to burst your hysteria induced bubble. But at almost 50% support in Ontario, I believe the term is game, set, and match. No matter how many votes the NDP manage to gain from the anti-Canadian Quebec voting block.

So, are you implying that the Tories are going to ride a wave into Toronto? ...and if so, may I ask what drugs you are taking?

[Shady]

So, are you implying that the Tories are going to ride a wave into Toronto? ...and if so, may I ask what drugs you are taking?

They don't need to ride a wave in Toronto. With the NDP and Liberals essentially splitting almost equally, the Conservatives and come up the middle and win seats they might not have won prior to the NDP increase in support.

[nittanylionstorm07]

They don't need to ride a wave in Toronto. With the NDP and Liberals essentially splitting almost equally, the Conservatives and come up the middle and win seats they might not have won prior to the NDP increase in support.

Please show me where this would occur, then:

http://www.blogto.com/upload/2008/10/20081014_canadaelectionres.jpg

http://www.blogto.com/upload/2008/10/20081014_sontelectionres.jpg

Those are the results from 2008. Show me where the Tories could possibly pick up seats, because from that, they have clearly maxed out their potential in Ontario.

Edited April 27, 2011 by nittanylionstorm07

[ToadBrother]

They don't need to ride a wave in Toronto. With the NDP and Liberals essentially splitting almost equally, the Conservatives and come up the middle and win seats they might not have won prior to the NDP increase in support.

Whatever happens, I think the notion that the Tories will have seat gains is out the door. BC is heavily in play and any theoretical gains in Ontario could be met with losses in BC. Besides, we haven't seen the end of this trend, but it's pretty clear from the Tory campaign's response that they're not treating this NDP surge as some big gift from the electoral gods to them, but rather as a potential threat.

[Shady]

Those are the results from 2008. Show me where the Tories could possibly pick up seats, because from that, they have clearly maxed out their potential in Ontario.

They haven't at all maxed out their potential in Ontario. In many of those ridings, if the Conservative vote stays somewhat similar, but the Liberal vote falls just a little, you're looking at Conservative pickups. Because in many of those Liberal ridings, the NDP vote might go up, but not nearly enough to win, just enough to clear the way for a Conservative candidate. It's just simple math.

[bud]

Do you even know what communism is? Maybe you should look it up before making such a stupid comment.

i'm being sarcastic.

[Tilter]

Wow--- a lot of Crow is being prepared for a lot of us on May 3d--- hope they put a lot of garlic be'cos I've heard that crow is hard to swallow :lol:

[cybercoma]

i'm being sarcastic.

My bad. My sarcasm detector broke when idiots here actually started making similar claims with straight faces.

[Scotty]

Funny thing is if the tories are worried they're sure not acting like it. In fact, said on the news today that they were pulling in and would just as soon sleepwalk quietly to the election with little additional coverage.

Now that says to me that the tories own internal polls have put them in a very good position, and if they could, they'd just as soon have the election today.

[Smallc]

Funny thing is if the tories are worried they're sure not acting like it.

What would you expect them to do? Many insiders say that they're close to panic.

Edited April 27, 2011 by Smallc

[Scotty]

What would you expect them to do? Many insiders say that they're close to panic.

I would expect Harper to be doing a full-court press with the media, to be far more earnest and desperate to get his message out. He doesn't seem to be doing that. Today's nanos poll puts the tories at 37.8 points, very, very close to the 40% said to be the area of majority territory. But with the NDP strength that number might be lower. According to Nanos the Tories are now at 47% in Ontario.

The NDPs big numbers are in large measure because of Quebec, but they might not translate into that many seats, and the Tories' support in Quebec has always been localized in a very conservative part of the province which is least likely to be attracted to Layton's socialism.

Another thought. As people begin to take seriously the possibilty of the NDP actually winning, or at least, winning enough to take power in a coalition, there are a lot of people out there who could get wary and decide they can't afford to vote Liberal, but will switch to the Tories to try to ensure they get a majority so as to block Layton from power.

Edited April 27, 2011 by Scotty