Federal Election Polls

[RNG]

Some official with a US polling company I watched on some TV news panel brought up a phenomenon, and had a name for it but I don't remember. When there is a lot of anger and discontent in the electorate, they will often give poll takers an answer suggesting change is coming, but the actual results come in much less in favor of change. He says for example if the Reps have been doing badly in the polls, when the soft Rep voters and independents who said they'd vote Dem actually get into the ballot booth, they sort of choke and vote same-old, same-old.

I wonder if some significant number of disgruntled Liberals will also do that?

[Evening Star]

I've been wondering that myself. What were the numbers like in the last week of the '88 campaign? Anyone know?

[punked]

I've been wondering that myself. What were the numbers like in the last week of the '88 campaign? Anyone know?

Tanked. We tanked the 88 campaign when the election was called. Our numbers peaked weeks before that one.

Edited May 1, 2011 by punked

[nittanylionstorm07]

I've been wondering that myself. What were the numbers like in the last week of the '88 campaign? Anyone know?

All I can find is that they predicted a Liberal government.

With that said, opinion polling has made tremendous strides since then.

[BubberMiley]

You're talking to a person who knows what he's talking about. Doer was a disaster for Manitoba.

Rather than stating meaningless generalities like he "destroyed the healthcare system", why don't you use actual data to prove your point?

Perhaps because the actual data doesn't back you up.

If you want to talk welfare, why not provide context like actual numbers in relation to population growth?

Why not talk about the unemployment rate?

Oh right, because that would all show Manitoba's growth is among the best in Canada.

[wyly]

I've been wondering that myself. What were the numbers like in the last week of the '88 campaign? Anyone know?

the dynamics are different here this not the traditional close Rep vs Dems...this closer to popular uprising it's spontaneous and the electorate is motivated...

[Evening Star]

I meant the '88 campaign in Canada, when there was also supposed to be a strong NDP surge at one point (that seems to have petered out by the end of the campaign, according to recent posts).

Edited May 1, 2011 by Evening Star

[wyly]

I meant the '88 campaign in Canada, when there was also supposed to be a strong NDP surge at one point (that seems to have petered out by the end of the campaign, according to recent posts).

this is nothing like 88 though, the surge didn't stop this time...

[Evening Star]

Yeah, that was the part I didn't know about, whether the surge had already petered out by the time of the polls in the last week of the campaign. (I was 9 at the time.)

[SuperFreak]

Some official with a US polling company I watched on some TV news panel brought up a phenomenon, and had a name for it but I don't remember. When there is a lot of anger and discontent in the electorate, they will often give poll takers an answer suggesting change is coming, but the actual results come in much less in favor of change. He says for example if the Reps have been doing badly in the polls, when the soft Rep voters and independents who said they'd vote Dem actually get into the ballot booth, they sort of choke and vote same-old, same-old.

I wonder if some significant number of disgruntled Liberals will also do that?

That is interesting.

A factor working against that in Canada is multiple parties. Whenever a party is close to majority, supporters of other parties will have some pressure to vote for party second in polls to stop them. It can be counterproductive in many instances as many ridings aren't 1vs2. There many conservative vs liberal at Toronto outskirts where NDP are completely out of it.

[Smallc]

Nanos:

C - 37.1

N - 31.6

L - 20.5

B - 5.7

G - 3.8

The Conservative Quebec numbers are back to where they were last election. If there is enough in the way of vote splitting in Ontario, they could get their majority.

http://www.ctv.ca/mini/election2011/polltracker/index.html

Edited May 2, 2011 by Smallc

[nittanylionstorm07]

Nanos:

C - 37.1

N - 31.6

L - 20.5

B - 5.7

G - 3.8

The Conservative Quebec numbers are back to where they were last election. If there is enough in the way of vote splitting in Ontario, they could get their majority.

http://www.ctv.ca/mini/election2011/polltracker/index.html

NDP is up across the board in latest numbers except BC where they dropped 7 pts. They are first in Atlantic, Quebec, and second everywhere else.

[lukin]

Nanos:

C - 37.1

N - 31.6

L - 20.5

B - 5.7

G - 3.8

The Conservative Quebec numbers are back to where they were last election. If there is enough in the way of vote splitting in Ontario, they could get their majority.

http://www.ctv.ca/mini/election2011/polltracker/index.html

I'm with you there smallc. Let's hope it's a CPC majority.

[Evening Star]

http://www.ekospolitics.com/index.php/2011/05/hold-on-to-your-hats-campaign-41-drawing-to-a-heart-stopping-conclusion-may-1-2011/

2.8% between CPC and NDP

[lukin]

http://www.ekospolitics.com/index.php/2011/05/hold-on-to-your-hats-campaign-41-drawing-to-a-heart-stopping-conclusion-may-1-2011/

2.8% between CPC and NDP

Ekos............. :lol:

[nittanylionstorm07]

http://www.ekospolitics.com/index.php/2011/05/hold-on-to-your-hats-campaign-41-drawing-to-a-heart-stopping-conclusion-may-1-2011/

2.8% between CPC and NDP

He has an evening release tonight that is going to be released any minute now... that looks like the previous release.

Ekos............. :lol:

Predictable.

[lukin]

He has an evening release tonight that is going to be released any minute now... that looks like the previous release.

Predictable.

How about layton's hidden agenda. is it predictable?

http://opinion.financialpost.com/2011/04/29/terence-corcoran-jack-layton%E2%80%99s-hidden-agenda/

[nittanylionstorm07]

How about layton's hidden agenda. is it predictable?

http://opinion.financialpost.com/2011/04/29/terence-corcoran-jack-layton%E2%80%99s-hidden-agenda/

Good lord. Don't you people ever get enough of yourselves?

[punked]

Not Lukin he is always wrong, so he is trying to keep the streak alive.

[Bryan]

Compas has some interesting background on why their numbers differ from the others.

They weighted their numbers based on how firm people were in their voting intentions, giving them a 1-7 scale. They not only asked who they preferred, but also how committed they were even voting at all. They were also asked if they could name the people running in their riding. So it's not a pure "who do you like" poll, it's a breakdown of those who are going to vote "for sure".

CPC support was simply the most committed. Most CPC favoring respondents were committed not only to how they will vote, but to actually voting at all.

Conversely, NDP support is really soft. Most of them were not even sure if they were going to vote at all, could not name their candidate, and admitted that even if they did vote, they were quite likely to change their choice. 79% of people who chose NDP said they are likely to change their mind. Only 39% of NDP supporters can even identify by name their local candidate.

http://www.compas.ca/data/110501-FedElectionPoll-EPCB.pdf

[punked]

Compas has some interesting background on why their numbers differ from the others.

They weighted their numbers based on how firm people were in their voting intentions, giving them a 1-7 scale. They not only asked who they preferred, but also how committed they were even voting at all. They were also asked if they could name the people running in their riding. So it's not a pure "who do you like" poll, it's a breakdown of those who are going to vote "for sure".

CPC support was simply the most committed. Most CPC favoring respondents were committed not only to how they will vote, but to actually voting at all.

Conversely, NDP support is really soft. Most of them were not even sure if they were going to vote at all, could not name their candidate, and admitted that even if they did vote, they were quite likely to change their choice. 79% of people who chose NDP said they are likely to change their mind. Only 39% of NDP supporters can even identify by name their local candidate.

http://www.compas.ca/data/110501-FedElectionPoll-EPCB.pdf

Ahhhh this makes sense now. These types of "likely voter" analysis have never worked in Canada.

[Smallc]

EKOS:

C - 33.9

N - 31.2

L - 21

B - 6.4

G - 5.9

http://www.ekospolitics.com/index.php/2011/05/our-final-words-and-a-few-more-numbers-may-1-2011/

[nittanylionstorm07]

Compas has some interesting background on why their numbers differ from the others.

They weighted their numbers based on how firm people were in their voting intentions, giving them a 1-7 scale. They not only asked who they preferred, but also how committed they were even voting at all. They were also asked if they could name the people running in their riding. So it's not a pure "who do you like" poll, it's a breakdown of those who are going to vote "for sure".

CPC support was simply the most committed. Most CPC favoring respondents were committed not only to how they will vote, but to actually voting at all.

Conversely, NDP support is really soft. Most of them were not even sure if they were going to vote at all, could not name their candidate, and admitted that even if they did vote, they were quite likely to change their choice. 79% of people who chose NDP said they are likely to change their mind. Only 39% of NDP supporters can even identify by name their local candidate.

http://www.compas.ca/data/110501-FedElectionPoll-EPCB.pdf

Considering there are always more conservative supporters who will rate a higher "certainty" number, this is extremely wonky logic. Hardcore base conservatives for the most part base their decision on fear and see things in more black/white than shades of gray or color. They are basically "7" for CPC and "0" for everyone else.

[Harry]

Bryan is always flailing about cherry-picking polls, like Compas which isn't even credible.

Nobody, and I'll repeat nobody, at this point knows what is going to happen tomorrow - there are only two sure things and that is Harper has lost any possibility for a majority, and the Liberals have tanked.

[Harry]

EKOS:

C - 33.9

N - 31.2

L - 21

B - 6.4

G - 5.9

http://www.ekospolitics.com/index.php/2011/05/our-final-words-and-a-few-more-numbers-may-1-2011/

So the NDP & the Cons are basically tied given the margin of error - how many credible pollsters are saying it's tied now?

My hunch is Mr Layton will be having a very good day tomorrow.

Edited May 2, 2011 by Harry