Federal Election Polls

[Bryan]

According to the Manitoba local I talk to often, Gary Doer's "fine job" was vastly overrated.

You're talking to a person who knows what he's talking about. Doer was a disaster for Manitoba. He took a healthcare system that was strong and virtually destroyed it. Everything his government has touched has turned to shit. Layer after layer has been added to the beaurocracy for no other reason than to do something for the sake of doing it. Welfare roles have more than doubled, family services is a mess, he ran Manitoba Hydro into the ground, and began racking up billions in off the books liabilities long before the recession--all while we had balanced budget legislation. They call our finance minister here a "weapon of math destruction".

[Hydraboss]

Gap between Tories, NDP narrows to 6 points in 11th-hour polling

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/politics/gap-between-tories-ndp-narrows-to-6-points-in-11th-hour-polling/article2005684/

Uhm, considering the NDP were apparently running a 5% gap behind the CPC, how does a 6 point spread equate to "narrowing"?

If the gap widens to 20% today, and then late tonight it shrinks to 15%, will you be claiming that the NDP "narrowed" the gap again Maplesyrup?

[Smallc]

Uhm, considering the NDP were apparently running a 5% gap behind the CPC, how does a 6 point spread equate to "narrowing"?

Different polls, and according to Nik Nanos, the Saturday polling numbers show that the NDP numbers are hugely up. The 3 day rolling poll doesn't allow them to reflect that.

[punked]

To paraphrase George W. Bush's statement about Kerry's position on the Iraq war, he was for forced sterilization until he was against it.

Much like the Conservatives and Liberals who actually passed and preformed it in provinces eh? Wow the Conservative party and the Liberal party forced sterilizers eh? Might want to look at BC and Alberta where this actually happened not to a man who prevented it form happening in his province.

[punked]

WE GOT A TIE!!!!!!!!

Forum Research Poll: (3,789 sample size)

Con: 35%

NDP: 33%

Lib: 19%

Atlantic:

NDP: 30%

Con: 31%

LIb: 26%

Quebec:

NDP: 49%

BQ: 21%

Con: 16%

Lib: 13%

Ontario:

Con: 36%

NDP: 31%

Lib: 25%

Saskitoba:

Con: 45%

NDP: 33%

Lib: 15%

BC:

Con: 39%

NDP: 37%

Lib: 15%

http://hilltimes.com/dailyupdate/view/ndp_tories_in_virtual_dead_heat_either_party_could_form_minority_government_says_forum_research_poll_05-01-2011

Edited May 1, 2011 by punked

[Hydraboss]

Anyone actually have a poll result to post or are we just going to discuss what a scumbag Douglas was?

My boss landed in Toronto yesterday and emailed me a picture from the Toronto Sun. This is weird - pundits call on seats tomorrow:

Lorrie Goldstein CPC 145 Lib 40 NDP 95 Bloc 28

Mark Bonokoski CPC 156 Lib 59 NDP 66 Bloc 25 Oth 2

Monte Solberg CPC 149 Lib 65 NDP 56 Bloc 38

Warren Kinsella CPC 130 Lib 55 NDP 93 Bloc 29 Green 1

Threehundred CPC 144 Lib 65 NDP 59 Bloc 40

Kinsella really shocks me. Can you say throwing in the towel?

[Hydraboss]

WE GOT A TIE!!!!!!!!

You got nothing.

http://hilltimes.com/dailyupdate/view/ndp_tories_in_virtual_dead_heat_ei...

Link broken, but thanks for at least trying.

[punked]

Kinsella really shocks me. Can you say throwing in the towel?

Kinsella is for Kinsella before he is for the Liberal party and he is for Jean before all else. He was pro merger one of the strongest voices for it and the Liberals hung him out to dry for it. Right now he wants to see them take a beating if they can't win so he can bang some more on the "I told you so, you should always listen to Warren" drum. It just is who he is. Plus his prediction seems like it is right to me.

[punked]

You got nothing.

Link broken, but thanks for at least trying.

Link fixed. I know a tie scared you but it was a poll of 4000 people.

http://hilltimes.com/dailyupdate/view/ndp_tories_in_virtual_dead_heat_either_party_could_form_minority_government_says_forum_research_poll_05-01-2011

[Hydraboss]

I don't disagree that Kinsella is probably not that far off (except for the NDP seat count is too high). It just seems shocking that he would put the Libs at 55. Usually the super-neo-partisan-freaks would rather overstate their party's chances and then make up some crap to explain why it never came to be.

[charter.rights]

CTV News/Globe/Nanos Tracking - Tories 37.0, NDP 30.6, Grits 22.7, BQ 5.5, GP 3.2 (April 28-30)

The Conservative advantage over the NDP in the three day rolling average has diminished from eight to six points. Please note that we have seen a tightening of the race looking at the one day Saturday numbers but will need to wait to see what the results are for Sunday.

Conservative support nationally is 37.0% followed by the NDP at 30.6%, the Liberals at 22.7%, the BQ at 5.5% and the Greens at 3.2%.

The campaign is now featuring a possible tightening of the races in Atlantic Canada, Ontario and British Columbia.

Factoring the margin of error for the regional sub-sample, a three way statistical tie exists in Atlantic Canada with the Liberals at 34.4%, the Conservatives at 32.9%, and the NDP at 29.1%. Support for the Greens is at 3.6% in Atlantic Canada.

The NDP still enjoy a comfortable lead in Quebec with 37.4% support followed by the BQ at 23.9%, the Liberals at 18.1%, the Conservatives at 16.7% and the Greens at 1.3%.

In Ontario, the Tories are at 36.2%, followed by the Liberals at 31.1%, the NDP at 27.4%, and the Green Party at 4.4%.

The Conservatives have a substantial lead in the Prairies with 60.5% support followed by the NDP at 25.0%, the Liberals at 12.9% and the Green Party at 1.7%.

In BC the Tories have 41.2% followed by the NDP at 34.9%, the Grits at 17.9% and the Greens at 5.7%

A look at the Nanos Leadership Index, which is a one day snapshot of the perceptions of the leaders indicates that Saturday, Jack Layton's scores significantly improved and surpassed Stephen Harper's. Layton scored 97 points (up 17 points) on the one day index compared to 88 for Stephen Harper and 39 points for Michael Ignatieff. Yesterday Layton had an advantage over Harper outside of the margin of error of the research on trust and vision for Canada while Harper maintained an advantage on competence.

Party platform remains the top vote driver at 47.3% of Canadians while the importance of party leader is trending up to 26.5%.

Healthcare is the top issue at 31.2% with about a seven point advantage over jobs/the economy which stands at 24.6%.

The detailed tables and methodology are posted on our website where you can also register to receive automatic polling updates.

Edited May 1, 2011 by charter.rights

[Harry]

Craig Oliver of CTV just predicted a NDP minority government but I'm wondering if it may end up being a majority for Layton.

[Shady]

Craig Oliver of CTV just predicted a NDP minority government but I'm wondering if it may end up being a majority for Layton.

Quite possibly. Good observation maplesyrup.

[Hydraboss]

Layton will not be elected to power. Period.

Your little propaganda routine is beyond stupid.

[BubberMiley]

According to the Manitoba local I talk to often, Gary Doer's "fine job" was vastly overrated.

What are you referring to?

Oh, you don't know what you're talking about but feel you must comment anyway.

That's okay. It's not like anyone takes you seriously.

[punked]

Layton will not be elected to power. Period.

Your little propaganda routine is beyond stupid.

Newest poll shows it is a tie.

[Shady]

Newest poll shows it is a tie.

Complete nonsense. The amount of hyperbole and spinning by NDP supporters in this forum is mindboggling. Now a 8% point deficit is tantamount to a tie. I've heard it all now.

[Hydraboss]

Punked, the newest poll shows it's a statistical tie on federal percentage. Take a closer look at regionals.

[punked]

Complete nonsense. The amount of hyperbole and spinning by NDP supporters in this forum is mindboggling. Now a 8% point deficit is tantamount to a tie. I've heard it all now.

Again the forum poll out TODAY of 4000 VOTERS shows a statistical tie with the NDP being the ones who are gaining. Go read the poll it is posted on the last page.

[Shady]

Punked, the newest poll shows it's a statistical tie on federal percentage. Take a closer look at regionals.

Exactly. The Quebec NDP approval skews the entire federal percentage. But the NDP spin doctors in this forum refuse to acknowledge it. Purposely.

[Shady]

Again the forum poll out TODAY of 4000 VOTERS shows a statistical tie with the NDP being the ones who are gaining. Go read the poll it is posted on the last page.

The poll of polls averaging today, and yesterday still shows the NDP down by 7+. Keep spinning though guys. Monday night's gonna be a long night for you after Quebec is done voting. I'd start thinking of excuses now. Remember what you said about the American mid-terms? There's still egg on your face over that one too.

[punked]

The poll of polls averaging today, and yesterday still shows the NDP down by 7+. Keep spinning though guys. Monday night's gonna be a long night for you after Quebec is done voting. I'd start thinking of excuses now. Remember what you said about the American mid-terms? There's still egg on your face over that one too.

I'm not spinning I am just pointing out this is a close race. However we will see how close tomorrow eh?

[Smallc]

Punked, the newest poll shows it's a statistical tie on federal percentage. Take a closer look at regionals.

Yes, take a look at those regionals. They're very good for the NDP.

[BubberMiley]

The results are skewed by NDP support in Quebec but not at all by Tory support in Alberta.

I will concede that the CPC support may have grown in Alberta, and they might really, really win those seats this time.

[punked]

Punked, the newest poll shows it's a statistical tie on federal percentage. Take a closer look at regionals.

I did it looks like the NDP can take seats from the Cons in Quebec, Ontario, Manitoba, NS, BC, Sask. Seems like a close race to me.