Federal Election Polls

[RNG]

You should read Don Martin's blog on the CTV news website. His take on the situation is that the electorate are so mad at the Cons and the Libs for just attacking each other and constantly bickering on an extremely partisan basis. And there goes Happy Jack with a smile on his face and nice sounding promises.

Anyway, he basically thinks this surge of NDP support isn't so much NDP support as it is giving the finger to both Harper and Iggy.

[Evening Star]

The Right is not going to fracture again. They've seen that that road leads to futility. They'll absorb any centrist Liberals and be the stronger for it.

I dunno, if the AB right could fracture, it could happen federally too, right?

Edited April 29, 2011 by Evening Star

[Dave_ON]

I also don't believe the mid-30's numbers, especially if you apply any reasonable portion of the "undecided" vote to the CPC.

I have to disagree, there's no way the CPC can win a majority, without taking the lions share of Quebec and Ontario. This is how the LPC ruled Canada for a decade and a half. The LPC's low 40% is far more efficient than the CPC's low 40%. You can't win a majority from the west, that's the reality of the situation.

Back in the 90's you could go to bed when the polls were closed in Ontario, the governemnt was decided regardless of how the rest of the country voted. This election it will be a nail biter until the very end, and BC will definitely have a large impact on both the NDP and CPC.

Edited April 29, 2011 by Dave_ON

[nittanylionstorm07]

The Right is not going to fracture again. They've seen that that road leads to futility. They'll absorb any centrist Liberals and be the stronger for it.

Eh, I disagree. Look at the US and Alberta. Alberta it's already happened, but in the US it's getting closer by the day. The far right is so reactionary and demanding that the centrists have no appetite for it.

[RNG]

I dunno, if the AB right could fracture, it could happen federally too, right?

Except that Mr. Stelmack was at best a Very Red Tory.

[nittanylionstorm07]

Ipsos Reid

Cons 38

NDP 33

Lib 18

BQ 7

Green 4

Wow!!

[nittanylionstorm07]

Ipsos Ontario

Cons 40

NDP 34

Lib 21

!

[ToadBrother]

Ipsos Ontario

Cons 40

NDP 34

Lib 21

!

Well that's interesting. That definitely puts the Tories in majority territory.

[nittanylionstorm07]

I think we might finally be seeing liberal/left-centre voters in Ontario abandon the Liberals to get Harper out.

[nittanylionstorm07]

Well that's interesting. That definitely puts the Tories in majority territory.

I disagree with that interpretation of Ontario.

Keep in mind that Ipsos had way high Conservative numbers before compared to other polls, too.

The distance between the NDP and Liberal numbers in Ontario is too much for the Liberals to compete sufficiently in this scenario.

[RNG]

I'm not being argumentative, or busting anyone's chops, but why is it certain polling firms seem to give results consistently showing an anomalous result compared to the others. I have often noticed this.

Other than Polaris, which is bought and paid for by the Liberal party, IMO.

[ToadBrother]

I disagree with that interpretation of Ontario.

Keep in mind that Ipsos had way high Conservative numbers before compared to other polls, too.

The distance between the NDP and Liberal numbers in Ontario is too much for the Liberals to compete sufficiently in this scenario.

I'm almost ready to give up on any kind of predictions. Honestly, I think things are so fluid that polling is just going to have everybody running around in circles. Ontario is a mystery and that means a lot of what happens depends on Ontario.

I think the pro-NDP camp may have to face the possibility of the NDP having peaked, and there are significant dangers to peaking two and a half days before the election.

[nittanylionstorm07]

I think the pro-NDP camp may have to face the possibility of the NDP having peaked, and there are significant dangers to peaking two and a half days before the election.

I think the anti-NDP camp is dreaming.

[ToadBrother]

I think the anti-NDP camp is dreaming.

I think a lot of people in both the NDP and Tory camps are dreaming. The Liberals are dreaming too, but all they're dreams are nightmares.

[Evening Star]

Well that's interesting. That definitely puts the Tories in majority territory.

Because of the ON numbers? Do you think that this means the Liberals and NDP are splitting the vote here and allowing for the CPC to make inroads in the GTA? The NDP's blue-collar ridings are fairly safe, I think. Maybe some of Northern Ontario might be in play...? I'd be surprised if the city core of Toronto sends any Conservatives to the House.

[ToadBrother]

Because of the ON numbers? Do you think that this means the Liberals and NDP are splitting the vote here and allowing for the CPC to make inroads in the GTA? The NDP's blue-collar ridings are fairly safe, I think. Maybe some of Northern Ontario might be in play...? I'd be surprised if the city core of Toronto sends any Conservatives to the House.

Ah, read that wrong, thought it was national numbers. Ignore last post, I've been looking at way too many polls lately.

I stand by my previous-previous statement. The Tories cannot form a majority, and will have to make some serious accommodations one way or the other to stave off defeat over the Throne Speech.

Edited April 29, 2011 by ToadBrother

[Guest Derek L]

I'm almost ready to give up on any kind of predictions. Honestly, I think things are so fluid that polling is just going to have everybody running around in circles. Ontario is a mystery and that means a lot of what happens depends on Ontario.

I think the pro-NDP camp may have to face the possibility of the NDP having peaked, and there are significant dangers to peaking two and a half days before the election.

I wonder if that ~15% undecided vote is starting to transform into support for a given party(ies)?

[ToadBrother]

I wonder if that ~15% undecided vote is starting to transform into support for a given party(ies)?

Probably not. Some of them may not even show up on election day.

[Vancouver King]

NEWS FLASH!

The Toronto Star is poised to endorse the NDP this election!

(source CBC, Evan Solomon)

Does the Liberal implosion have no basement?

[ToadBrother]

NEWS FLASH!

The Toronto Star is poised to endorse the NDP this election!

(source CBC, Evan Solomon)

Does the Liberal implosion have no basement?

I'm sure it's got to stop at the magma bubble a few kilometres underground.

[Mr.Canada]

I'm sure it's got to stop at the magma bubble a few kilometres underground.

I'm waiting to see how the public will react to parties banding together to vote down the throne speech and replace Stephen Harper with a multi party gov't. headed by Jack Layton. Then I want to see how long Layton will be PM.

[ToadBrother]

I'm waiting to see how the public will react to parties banding together to vote down the throne speech and replace Stephen Harper with a multi party gov't. headed by Jack Layton. Then I want to see how long Layton will be PM.

I think we should see what May 2nd shapes up like. But if Layton forms a coalition, it rather depends on what he does. And who knows, maybe Harper will bite the bullet and form a coalition himself. After all, tradition gives him first rights on trying to form a government.

[Mr.Canada]

I think we should see what May 2nd shapes up like. But if Layton forms a coalition, it rather depends on what he does. And who knows, maybe Harper will bite the bullet and form a coalition himself. After all, tradition gives him first rights on trying to form a government.

Nope, the Tories have too much to gain by letting these guys hang themselves. He'll get another minority he'll give his throne speech and it'll be voted down. Layton will then move to form gov't and become PM. Simple as that. I'm convinced of this being the way it will play out.

These parties cannot succeed in passing a non confidence motion then vote with the gov't right after the election and still hold any credibility.

[RNG]

Slightly off topic, but do any of you "senior members" (in posts, not years) know what the record number of posts in a single thread is? I bet this one has it.

[ToadBrother]

Nope, the Tories have too much to gain by letting these guys hang themselves. He'll get another minority he'll give his throne speech and it'll be voted down. Layton will then move to form gov't and become PM. Simple as that. I'm convinced of this being the way it will play out.

These parties cannot succeed in passing a non confidence motion then vote with the gov't right after the election and still hold any credibility.

You're way oversimplifying things. The Liberals could look at an alliance with the NDP as the kiss of death and decide just to prop up the Tories. That's my leading theory at the moment.