Federal Election Polls

[wyly]

Now if the NDP and the Liberals each have less seats than the Tories but decide to band together, THAT might cause some waves but a regular minority? Nobody will care!

polls have shown that canadians are ok with minority among 2nd and 3rd place finishers, it's just the conservatives that have issues with it...

[Harry]

It's looks like it's over for Harper and Jack Layton will win the most number of seats - latest poll to follow shortly.

[Harry]

Remember it's all about who has the momentum

Forum Poll

Cons - 34%, Down 2%

NDP - 31%

Libs - 22%

Edited April 27, 2011 by Harry

[nittanylionstorm07]

Forum Poll

Cons - 34%, Down 2%

NDP - 31%

Libs - 22%

It's not stopping!

Edited April 27, 2011 by nittanylionstorm07

[ToadBrother]

It's looks like it's over for Harper and Jack Layton will win the most number of seats - latest poll to follow shortly.

Is this the Angus Reid poll? That one still shows the NDP at 30% against 35% for the Tories.

[Harry]

Is this the Angus Reid poll? That one still shows the NDP at 30% against 35% for the Tories.

No, it's a brand new Forum poll showing the NDP within 3% of the Cons, and the margin of error is probably around 3%, so the NDP and the Cons may well be statistically tied for first place.

http://www.hilltimes.com/dailyupdate/view/grits_set_to_lose_longheld_bastions_in_montreal_and_toronto_to_ndp_dramatic_new_forum_research_survey_says_04-27-2011

Edited April 27, 2011 by Harry

[ToadBrother]

No, it's a brand new Forum poll

Well, don't be shy, old man! Let's have it!

[cybercoma]

NDP leads in Quebec, Conservatives comfortably way ahead in the rest of the country. Jack does have a very real chance of being leader of the opposition, but he's nowhere near the 100 seat level. Conservatives are still on the edge of a majority (MOE: 3.1), and exactly where Nanos had them five days ago. Dippers still have reason to be happy, Tories can stop worrying. Liberals? Yikes! I would not want to be in that war room right now.

I know I'm biased, B; however, the Conservatives are trending ever so slightly downward, while the NDP has taken a sharp turn upwards throughout the whole election. Your analysis is a bit skewed, I think.

[Harry]

Most Recent polling:

Date / Pollster / Cons / NDP / LIbs / Bloc

Apr 27 / Forum / 34% / 31% / 22% / NDP now within 3% of first place - what is margin of error here?

Apr 26 / Nanos / 37.8% / 27.8% / 22.9% / 5.8%

Apr 26 / Angus R / 35% / 30% / 22% / 5% NDP within 5% of 1st place

Apr 25 / EKOS / 33.9% / 27.9% / 24% / 6%

Apr 24 / EKOS / 33.7% / 28% / 23.7% / 6.2%

Apr 24 / Nanos / 39.2% / 23.6% / 25.6% /

Apr 21 / Envi / 39% / 25% / 22% /

Apr 20 / Ipsos / 43% / 24% / 21% / 6%

Apr 16 / Angus R / 36% / 25% / 25% /

[cybercoma]

What!?

[ToadBrother]

Most Recent polling:

Date / Pollster / Cons / NDP / LIbs / Bloc

Apr 27 / Forum / 34% / 31% / 22% / NDP now within 3% of first place - what is margin of error here?

Apr 26 / Nanos / 37.8% / 27.8% / 22.9% / 5.8%

Apr 26 / Angus R / 35% / 30% / 22% / 5% NDP within 5% of 1st place

Apr 25 / EKOS / 33.9% / 27.9% / 24% / 6%

Apr 24 / EKOS / 33.7% / 28% / 23.7% / 6.2%

Apr 24 / Nanos / 39.2% / 23.6% / 25.6% /

Apr 21 / Envi / 39% / 25% / 22% /

Apr 20 / Ipsos / 43% / 24% / 21% / 6%

Apr 16 / Angus R / 36% / 25% / 25% /

I still think the margin of error is where the Tories' benefit hides. But we have a few days left, and I'm sure the nightmare scenario for the Tories is that the NDP freight train finishes running over the Liberals and proceeds to cut into them. The rise in NDP support has now broken the supposed ceiling and if it continues like this until the end, it's at least conceivable that the NDP could come within pissing distance of a minority government.

At that point, I would expect that there is a good chance that Harper's position would become untenable, particularly as he could have conceivably avoided this election by giving the NDP some more candy in the budget.

[Dave_ON]

Layton would probably convince the GG to call another election since Harper promised not to form a coalition (paraphrasing).

Then Layton would win a majority government.

That would not happen, the GG is not beholden to any PM and if there was just a federal election less than six months ago, as precedence has shown, another party would be asked to govern. Look back at previous Canadian parliaments and you will see a few examples.

[nittanylionstorm07]

I still think the margin of error is where the Tories' benefit hides. But we have a few days left, and I'm sure the nightmare scenario for the Tories is that the NDP freight train finishes running over the Liberals and proceeds to cut into them. The rise in NDP support has now broken the supposed ceiling and if it continues like this until the end, it's at least conceivable that the NDP could come within pissing distance of a minority government.

At that point, I would expect that there is a good chance that Harper's position would become untenable, particularly as he could have conceivably avoided this election by giving the NDP some more candy in the budget.

I just have to laugh at this. It's a redux of the 1990 Ontario election with respect to arrogance. At onset, the CPC was arrogant and knew/thought that they would coast to a majority government. The LPC was arrogant that they were the only way they could stop Harper and the CPC (I can't stop thinking about the related low-brow attack that Iggy launched at Layton in the English debate).

Well look what happens when two parties are so arrogant and busy with fighting each other that they forget that the Canadian people are tired of it. Throw in the 20 years of Bloquiste separation talk and no action/change from them, and it's the perfect fuel for the Orange Wave!

Edited April 27, 2011 by nittanylionstorm07

[ToadBrother]

What!?

I told my wife last night that I felt like somehow at some point in the last fifteen days I was subtly shifted into an alternative reality, a sort of Bizarro Canada.

[Harry]

Maybe it is the sort of Canada that most Canadians have been wanting all the time.

[TimG]

particularly as he could have conceivably avoided this election by giving the NDP some more candy in the budget.

I don't agree. This scenario could played out now or a year from now. He would have only delayed the inevitable.

[Harry]

There is a rumour going around that a couple of pollsters are holding their results because there is a new leader. Remember this is only a rumour and may not be factual.

Edited April 27, 2011 by Harry

[ToadBrother]

I don't agree. This scenario could played out now or a year from now. He would have only delayed the inevitable.

Maybe, but that's the kind of lifespans you deal with in a minority. It seems that once again Harper overplayed his hand.

What's the old adage; "Hold your friends close, but your enemies closer."

Edited April 27, 2011 by ToadBrother

[cybercoma]

I told my wife last night that I felt like somehow at some point in the last fifteen days I was subtly shifted into an alternative reality, a sort of Bizarro Canada.

Thumbs up for the graphic novel reference.

I hope this election is as monumental as it's shaping up to be. Canada really needs a shift in politics. Things have been stagnant for the better part of the last 10 years.

The prairies need to get on board here. The NDP is their child. I'm wondering at what point, if any, they'll be all aboard.

[nittanylionstorm07]

There is a rumour going around that a couple of pollsters are holding their results because there is a new leader. Remember this is only a rumour and may not be factual.

Which ones? The only ones we haven't seen recently are Ipsos-Reid, which had a heavy Conservative lean before, Harris-Decima, and Leger.

I could see Leger being the case, and perhaps Harris-Decima. Not Ipsos.

[Wild Bill]

It's looks like it's over for Harper and Jack Layton will win the most number of seats - latest poll to follow shortly.

Why stop there, Harry? If things are as you say, then it is inevitable that the NDP will win 308 seats!

That's right, all of them! I'm just following your extrapolations here and that's how they would have to end up!

In fact, with a few seats we would have to have a recount, just so Jack could win them more than once, so as to reach your projected totals!

[nittanylionstorm07]

Why stop there, Harry? If things are as you say, then it is inevitable that the NDP will win 308 seats!

That's right, all of them! I'm just following your extrapolations here and that's how they would have to end up!

In fact, with a few seats we would have to have a recount, just so Jack could win them more than once, so as to reach your projected totals!

I know it's frightening for you Tories that the NDP could beat the Tories in seat counts, but you need to calm down. Go breathe into a paper bag.

[Harry]

I know it's frightening for you Tories that the NDP could beat the Tories in seat counts, but you need to calm down. Go breathe into a paper bag.

[Shady]

I know it's frightening for you Tories that the NDP could beat the Tories in seat counts, but you need to calm down. Go breathe into a paper bag.

It's not so much frightening as it is unrealistic. It's like saying the Leafs will win the Cup this year.

[nittanylionstorm07]

It's not so much frightening as it is unrealistic. It's like saying the Leafs will win the Cup this year.

Yeah, and the Conservatives spend all day milking blue cows.