Federal Election Polls

[capricorn]

For the Liberals, there may be a tipping point where the NDP start looking like winners, and people, strangely enough, like winners.

Couple that with the repudiation of Ignatieff having the "right stuff" to be a leader and you have a second motivator.

[capricorn]

I think one of the best reasons to vote for the NDP is that we finally have a federalist party taking it to the BQ.

I think this phenomenon will be most reflected in the next federal election.

[August1991]

"An American physicist discovers a new principle of physics. Six months later a German engineer thinks up an application for it and wins a Nobel prize.

Three months later a Japanese businessman hires the engineer and builds a factory using his principle in a consumer product, which begins to sell like crazy.

Two months after that the Japanese company re-locates to China. Production and profits soar!

Six YEARS after that Canada is still debating whether it's a federal or a provincial matter!"

WB, too close to the truth to be funny.

Myself, I would welcome an NDP Opposition! I truly think it would be good for Canada. First off, killing off the Liberals would be a blessing. Their brand may be too scarred to recover anyway. We would then have more clear alternatives for governance.

I have always thought that regionalism not ideology drives federal politics and I'm not about to drop that idea. Once upon a time, the federal Liberals performed an important task of building bridges between Canadians. I don't think the NDP can do that.

They would have the opportunity of becoming like the Labour Party of Britain, much more down to earth and practical.

Michael Foot? James Callaghan? Down to earth and practical?

Did anyone watch power play today nobody was talking majority any more

On the contrary Harry, this makes a Conservative majority far more likely.

Harper started the campaign intending to split the anti-Harper vote and that's what's happening. The surge of the NDP in Quebec will signal to potential NDP voters outside of Quebec (and previously in the Liberal column) to vote NDP. There are going to be many riding-level vote splits in this election and overall, the Tories will win many three-way races.

We just pointed out that your claims don't seem to be based on anything the NDP has actually said or done in decades...

Uh, the NDP has never done anything federally except to induce minority governments to spend money.

What a federal NDP government would do remains to be seen.

Edited April 22, 2011 by August1991

[Harry]

That's kinda my take on what is coming down and not only in Quebec. Nothing succeeds liks success. Voters want to jump on the bandwaygon now to be part of this Canadian election happenin' event.

New polls may push even more Quebecers toward Layton camp

While new polls will confirm, contradict or mitigate the NDP’s sudden surge, there’s another thing Duceppe must be worried about: that the numbers that came out this week, as much as they might be overestimating NDP support, could end up influencing still more Quebecers to give Jack Layton a try.

http://www.montrealgazette.com/Jos%C3%A9e+Legault+polls+push+even+more+Quebecers+toward+Layton+camp/4658468/story.html

[August1991]

That's kinda my take on what is coming down and not only in Quebec. Nothing succeeds liks success. Voters want to jump on the bandwaygon now to be part of this Canadian election happenin' event.

"Bandwaygon"?

A vote for the NDP just splits riding results. Duceppe knows this. Liberals know this. And Harper knew this from the beginning.

Like it or not, a strong NDP result is synonym with a Harper majority.

[Harry]

When I am competing I just love people who count their chickens before they are hatched.

Edited April 22, 2011 by Harry

[August1991]

When I am competing I just love people who count their chickens before they are hatched.

An individual socialist with the Ayn Rand desire to compete. Sublime. Edited April 22, 2011 by August1991

[Harry]

Nanos Research - 3 days ending April 21

Tories lead by 12, Grits and NDP statistically tied

C - 37.8%, Down 1,2%

L - 26.1%, Down 0.6%

N - 23.7%, Up 1.6%

B - 7.4%, Down 0.1%

G - 3.5%, Up 0.1%

U - 17%, Up 1.6%

http://www.nanosresearch.com/election2011/20110421-BallotE.pdf

[Mr.Canada]

I think the NDP deserve their kick at the can, to be sure. For me, if the NDP can nail a bunch of Bloc ridings, I think this will be an incredible outcome, and one all Federalists, regardless of affiliation, should cheer. The Liberals and Tories haven't been able to do it, and I'm glad someone is at least making the Bloc worry seriously.

Any federalist party taking votes from the Bloc is good news for Canada indeed. It shows that Quebecers are tired of endless tirades by the BQ and their leader. It also shows that many Quebecers aren't really as sovereignist as the BQ had once thought but instead voted the Bloc for what it could do for Quebec,

I have a feeling that Thomas Mulclair has a lot to do with this shift in Quebec as he is as wildly popular Federally as he was Provincially when he ran for the Grits.

Now we just need the NDP support to hold and grow and not shrink back too much.

Edited April 22, 2011 by Mr.Canada

[Tilter]

The latest poll shows the Libs down, the NDPers almost even with the Libs & the CPC about where it was before the cresting of the NDP in Que.

BQ is in the toilet (in my mind the preferred habitat of traitors)

CPC majority in the offing.

[Mr.Canada]

The latest poll shows the Libs down, the NDPers almost even with the Libs & the CPC about where it was before the cresting of the NDP in Que.

BQ is in the toilet (in my mind the preferred habitat of traitors)

CPC majority in the offing.

Their will be not Tory majority only a minority. Then the Bloc coalition circus will begin after the election.

[nittanylionstorm07]

Any federalist party taking votes from the Bloc is good news for Canada indeed. It shows that Quebecers are tired of endless tirades by the BQ and their leader. It also shows that many Quebecers aren't really as sovereignist as the BQ had once thought but instead voted the Bloc for what it could do for Quebec,

I have a feeling that Thomas Mulclair has a lot to do with this shift in Quebec as he is as wildly popular Federally as he was Provincially when he ran for the Grits.

Now we just need the NDP support to hold and grow and not shrink back too much.

23rd Prime Minister of Canada- Jack Layton

24th Prime Minister of Canada- Thomas Mulclair

[Harry]

Putting things into perspective

The NDP numbers: some random thoughts

http://www.cusjc.ca/?p=1582

[punked]

Putting things into perspective

The NDP numbers: some random thoughts

http://www.cusjc.ca/?p=1582

I was just about to post that. I though what an interesting article by a former CBC TV Parliamentary bureau chief. Some real insight.

[ToadBrother]

I was just about to post that. I though what an interesting article by a former CBC TV Parliamentary bureau chief. Some real insight.

What I think we can best surmise at this time is the Tories will, at the very best, maintain their current seat count. I think it's safe to say a Tory majority is a dead issue now. There's just no way to pull it off. So we're back to what exactly Harper will do about it. No one can tell me he's just going to sit around for the Throne Speech to be defeated.

So we're left with two major possibilities:

1. Harper has a whole new budget, one with all sorts of goodies to get an Opposition party, probably the NDP, to vote for it, and thus essentially trying to continue the vote-by-vote governing that it's been doing since 2006. As I said at the outset of the election I honestly would not be surprised if a budget with Jack Layton's name on it was already prepared.

2. Harper and the Tories, tired of vote-by-vote governing and constantly have nails thrown at them in the House and in Committee, invite someone, probably the NDP (particularly if the surge holds) to form a coalition. The NDP gets some "feel good" ministries like, maybe Oda's Ministry of International Co-operation, but the Tories retain the keystone ministries of Finance, Foreign Affairs, Justice and Defense.

It's also possible that these scenarios could play out with the Liberals, but since the Liberals are far less likely to remain contented with simply being a junior partner in an official or unofficial coalition, I think Layton's the man. He'll put a price on co-operation, formal or otherwise, but the alternative is to see the Government defeated a few weeks into its mandate.

I think the proof that something is already in the cards is the way in which both Harper and Layton have been positioning themselves. Because they didn't pull an Iggy (I think that's what we should call it from now on) and make declarations at the beginning of a campaign which cannot be sustained even by the half-way mark, they both will have less political capital to burn if they shake hands and work together. Iggy literally has maneuvered himself into third place, regardless of whether he wins the second largest number of seats or not.

[Evening Star]

But we can probably expect that Ignatieff will be replaced after the election, likely by someone who hasn't sworn off a coalition himself or herself...

[punked]

"First they ignore you, then they laugh at you, then they fight you, then you win."

The Conservative woke up yesterday and figured out the NDP is going to hurt them West of Ontario pretty bad tying them everywhere but Alberta and even their they got a chance at 2 seats. So they go on the attack, the great news about this attack? It plays into the NDPs message in Quebec (We share ideas with the Bloc accept we think Quebec wants to be a part of this great nation)!

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_PYTd52pT28&feature=player_embedded

A really great NDP provincial leader once said

"This train is leaving the station and it isn't stopping to election night. Now is the time to hop on it because we are going to start rolling and it is hard to stop a train once it starts." Or something along those lines. I always think of that train speech when the NDP starts running a really really good campaign that puts their ideas forward in a way people understand.

Edited April 22, 2011 by punked

[ToadBrother]

But we can probably expect that Ignatieff will be replaced after the election, likely by someone who hasn't sworn off a coalition himself or herself...

Oh absolutely. Iggy is spent. He's been a pretty damned impotent Opposition leader in the House, all the best stuff done by his lieutenants. As a campaigner, he stumbled out of the starting gate and has never really caught up. You would have thought he would have shone at the Leadership debates, but Jack was the star and Harper held his own. And now this reversal on coalitions, reversing a commitment he so foolishly made at the beginning, just makes him look like an indecisive waffler desperately trying to catch up to the public mood and the realities of our current electoral cycle.

There will be a real irony if the Tories and NDP strike up a deal, a deal that the Liberals and the NDP could have hatched up if he hadn't been such a tremendous fool.

[blueblood]

"First they ignore you, then they laugh at you, then they fight you, then you win."

The Conservative woke up yesterday and figured out the NDP is going to hurt them West of Ontario pretty bad tying them everywhere but Alberta and even their they got a chance at 2 seats. So they go on the attack, the great news about this attack? It plays into the NDPs message in Quebec (We share ideas with the Bloc accept we think Quebec wants to be a part of this great nation)!

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_PYTd52pT28&feature=player_embedded

A really great NDP provincial leader once said

"This train is leaving the station and it isn't stopping to election night. Now is the time to hop on it because we are going to start rolling and it is hard to stop a train once it starts." Or something along those lines. I always think of that train speech when the NDP starts running a really really good campaign that puts their ideas forward in a way people understand.

The ndp will be considerably stronger this election, that is not up for debate. I think the tories will get their majority, and it will be by the skin of their teeth. Tory numbers have stayed in their trading range of 38-42 percent consistently throughout the campaign. The only party to really have trended upwards was the ndp. I'd be waiting for 2015 if I was an ndp supporter for a legit shot at govt. You guys are where the tories were in 2000. Official opposition on an upward trend. I don't know why ndpers would be so upset with a tory majority. The ndp would likely get official opposition, a big boost to their brand, 4 yrs to establish and grow credibility, and time to grow as a party.

[Evening Star]

I don't know why ndpers would be so upset with a tory majority.

Because some NDPers care about more than just their own party's political fortunes?

[blueblood]

Because some NDPers care about more than just their own party's political fortunes?

And why would harper want to lose a majority govt in 2015 due to some extreme ideology?

[Evening Star]

It all depends on what one considers extreme though... My family member, who has worked in community services and advocacy and who is a more hardcore NDP supporter than me, considers Harper's minority government to have been excessively right-wing, in terms of immigration/refugee policy, cancelling the Court Challenges Program, NGO funding decisions, scrapping the long-form census ... It's safe to assume that a majority CPC government would go further in many of these areas.

Look at Mulroney's or Trudeau's majority governments. They certainly made, or at least attempted to make, pretty major changes during these terms that were surely upsetting to the people who opposed them.

Edited April 22, 2011 by Evening Star

[blueblood]

It all depends on what one considers extreme though... My family member, who has worked in community services and advocacy and who is a more hardcore NDP supporter than me, considers Harper's minority government to have been excessively right-wing, in terms of immigration/refugee policy, cancelling the Court Challenges Program, NGO funding decisions, scrapping the long-form census ... It's safe to assume that a majority CPC government would go further in many of these areas.

Look at Mulroney's or Trudeau's majority governments. They certainly made, or at least attempted to make, pretty major changes during these terms that were surely upsetting to the people who opposed them.

Mulroney and trudeau ended up getting anhialated after attempting to make major changes. Let's look at alberta, same old boring pc party in charge for 40 yrs. Lesson of the day, don't rock the boat. Why would tory brass want to be in charge for 5 yrs, implement something drastic and then get thrown out, when they could be in charge for decades doing as little as possible? The hidden agenda isn't logical.

[nittanylionstorm07]

Mulroney and trudeau ended up getting anhialated after attempting to make major changes. Let's look at alberta, same old boring pc party in charge for 40 yrs. Lesson of the day, don't rock the boat. Why would tory brass want to be in charge for 5 yrs, implement something drastic and then get thrown out, when they could be in charge for decades doing as little as possible? The hidden agenda isn't logical.

Governing in Alberta is not the same as governing Federally.

First, the federal government does not hold the same positions as the Albertan government on many things.

Second, by convention, if a party is in charge consistently for 40 years, sometime before year 40, they will have already made all the changes to government they can/want to make, and therefore they would be able to sit on their thumbs with respect to changing anything until the populace gets frustrated of that aspect (see Wildrose Alliance).

[Evening Star]

I didn't say anything about a hidden agenda. I've read the CPC's published platform. I don't want it to be implemented.

Mulroney and trudeau ended up getting anhialated after attempting to make major changes. Let's look at alberta, same old boring pc party in charge for 40 yrs. Lesson of the day, don't rock the boat. Why would tory brass want to be in charge for 5 yrs, implement something drastic and then get thrown out, when they could be in charge for decades doing as little as possible? The hidden agenda isn't logical.