Bryan Posted April 11, 2011 Report Posted April 11, 2011 A Harper majority means… Global warming will be completely ignored The tooth fairy and the flying spaghetti monster will be ignored too. Quote
Evening Star Posted April 11, 2011 Report Posted April 11, 2011 The only way the Tories will be the government at the end of May is either to absolutely capitulate to the Opposition or to find a partner. Since Iggy is effectively playing the role of the interloping aggressor bent on seizing power, and the Tories couldn't dream of any kind of formal agreement with the Bloc after all the stink they kicked up, that only leaves the NDP. Frankly, if I was Harper, I'd do exactly what Cameron did in the UK, make it a formal coalition, let Layton be deputy PM, give the NDP some portfolios they'd like, like say, Human Resources, but keep the important ones, in particular Finance. You'd have to bend on a few things, maybe CPP or something like that, but if Harper were to wave that in front of Layton's nose, no one can tell me he wouldn't jump at it, and Harper would be saved from an inevitable defeat on the Throne Speech or budget. This is really intriguing... Afaict, the UK coalition has mostly worked because of Clegg's near-total capitulation. I don't really see Layton doing the same so I'm actually pretty curious how this would work out... Maybe something like the centrist, fiscally prudent NDP govts in MB/SK? Or something like the UK's wartime coalition where the Conservatives handled military/foreign policy and the socialists got to manage domestic social programmes...? Quote
ToadBrother Posted April 11, 2011 Report Posted April 11, 2011 This is really intriguing... Afaict, the UK coalition has mostly worked because of Clegg's near-total capitulation. I don't really see Layton doing the same so I'm actually pretty curious how this would work out... Maybe something like the centrist, fiscally prudent NDP govts in MB/SK? Or something like the UK's wartime coalition where the Conservatives handled military/foreign policy and the socialists got to manage domestic social programmes...? Clegg has folded on a lot of things (although the AV vote is still coming), but at the same time he's actually in government. Layton may have to abandon on lot of things as well, but the up is that the NDP gains influence at the cabinet table. Clegg's biggest problem is that the Tories got the Chancellor of the Exchequer job, and it would be likely that the Tories here would do the same thing. Sure Mr. Left of Centre, have all the cabinet ministers you want, but we control the money. Mind you, the Tory caucus in the UK isn't exactly a realm of peace and tranquility. The military cuts, for instance, has created a huge rift among the Tories. Quote
punked Posted April 11, 2011 Author Report Posted April 11, 2011 This is really intriguing... Afaict, the UK coalition has mostly worked because of Clegg's near-total capitulation. I don't really see Layton doing the same so I'm actually pretty curious how this would work out... Maybe something like the centrist, fiscally prudent NDP govts in MB/SK? Or something like the UK's wartime coalition where the Conservatives handled military/foreign policy and the socialists got to manage domestic social programmes...? I wish, if someone could promise me that I would be pretty happy. It wont happen. Quote
ToadBrother Posted April 11, 2011 Report Posted April 11, 2011 (edited) I wish, if someone could promise me that I would be pretty happy. It wont happen. If he can't get his majority on May 2nd, what choice does Harper have? If he cannot get a guarantee of support of some kind from at least one opposition party, he won't be Prime Minister by June. The most obvious partner, because they would be the most willing, would be the NDP. The Tories cannot politically strike a deal with the Bloc after proclaiming how toxic such a deal would be, and the Liberals are not going to want to help them, but replace them. Edited April 11, 2011 by ToadBrother Quote
punked Posted April 11, 2011 Author Report Posted April 11, 2011 If he can't get his majority on May 2nd, what choice does Harper have? If he cannot get a guarantee of support of some kind from at least one opposition party, he won't be Prime Minister by June. The most obvious partner, because they would be the most willing, would be the NDP. The Tories cannot politically strike a deal with the Bloc after proclaiming how toxic such a deal would be, and the Liberals are not going to want to help them, but replace them. From what I have seen the Liberals will cave and go into rebuilding mode and keep Harper there. They are much closer to the Cons then the NDP unless their hunger for power gets them but I bet the knives will come out May 3rd to prevent that. Quote
ToadBrother Posted April 11, 2011 Report Posted April 11, 2011 From what I have seen the Liberals will cave and go into rebuilding mode and keep Harper there. They are much closer to the Cons then the NDP unless their hunger for power gets them but I bet the knives will come out May 3rd to prevent that. If the Liberals manage to gain seats, I doubt very much rebuilding will be on their minds at all. Quote
punked Posted April 11, 2011 Author Report Posted April 11, 2011 If the Liberals manage to gain seats, I doubt very much rebuilding will be on their minds at all. They are going to have gain some dollars to be able to fight another election in 2 months because the NDP, Bloc, and Cons wont support when they break everyone of their red book promises. Quote
ToadBrother Posted April 11, 2011 Report Posted April 11, 2011 They are going to have gain some dollars to be able to fight another election in 2 months because the NDP, Bloc, and Cons wont support when they break everyone of their red book promises. I'm not sure why anyone thinks any of the promises anyone is making right now are going to come to fruition. Quote
punked Posted April 11, 2011 Author Report Posted April 11, 2011 I'm not sure why anyone thinks any of the promises anyone is making right now are going to come to fruition. That is the point though come budget time the NDP and Bloc are going to say "Where is the student passport you promised? Where is the National child care? Why are their fighter jets in here" ect. Then they will say "I'm not voting for this". At which point the Cons will say "where is the reduced deficit you promised from that corp tax". All parties will scream LIARS! And bam we are at an election 2 months later. The Liberals will have to keep their promises (which is impossible) or face and election. This isn't 1993 they aren't going to win so many seats that they can pretend not to hear the opposition asking about their red book. That is if they are even given a chance to govern. Quote
ToadBrother Posted April 11, 2011 Report Posted April 11, 2011 That is the point though come budget time the NDP and Bloc are going to say "Where is the student passport you promised? Where is the National child care? Why are their fighter jets in here" ect. Then they will say "I'm not voting for this". At which point the Cons will say "where is the reduced deficit you promised from that corp tax". All parties will scream LIARS! And bam we are at an election 2 months later. The Liberals will have to keep their promises (which is impossible) or face and election. This isn't 1993 they aren't going to win so many seats that they can pretend not to hear the opposition asking about their red book. That is if they are even given a chance to govern. That's not what's going to happen at all. What's going to happen is "We have these items and these items and these items, so put 'em your next budget and screw your own promises." Quote
punked Posted April 12, 2011 Author Report Posted April 12, 2011 That's not what's going to happen at all. What's going to happen is "We have these items and these items and these items, so put 'em your next budget and screw your own promises." Yeah good luck on that one. Quote
Smallc Posted April 12, 2011 Report Posted April 12, 2011 (edited) Yeah good luck on that one. It's far more plausible that what you think will happen. This election will probably result in one of two things - a Conservative majority (less likely after today, despite poll numbers that had turned around before today) or a coalition. Whether the coalition will be led by the Liberals or the Conservatives is anybody's guess. Edited April 12, 2011 by Smallc Quote
August1991 Posted April 12, 2011 Report Posted April 12, 2011 If he can't get his majority on May 2nd, what choice does Harper have? If he cannot get a guarantee of support of some kind from at least one opposition party, he won't be Prime Minister by June.He has three parties to choose from and all he needs is the support of one for critical votes. He has managed to do it for the past five years. As a minimum, I think Harper could always get the Bloc to go along.Harper's fear is that the Bloc/Libs/NDP form a single block and none accepts to play with him under any circumstances. That's possible (it happened after the last election). If the three parties gang up and defeat Harper on a confidence motion shortly after an election, then we could have a constitutional crisis. If Harper recommends dissolution (and another election) or a prorogue but the GG refuses and instead asks Ignatieff to form a government. Given current polls, any Ignatieff government would be highly unstable. Ignatieff would require the support of both the Bloc and the NDP for all critical votes. ---- I suspect that if Harper wins a minority government on May 2, parliament won't sit until the fall. It will be several months before the opposition parties have the ability to gang up and defeat the Tories. This is all very speculative though and such discussion makes a Conservative majority more likely. Quote
g_bambino Posted April 12, 2011 Report Posted April 12, 2011 If the three parties gang up and defeat Harper on a confidence motion shortly after an election, then we could have a constitutional crisis. If Harper recommends dissolution (and another election) or a prorogue but the GG refuses and instead asks Ignatieff to form a government. That's not a constitutional crisis. It's standard convention. Quote
Bryan Posted April 12, 2011 Report Posted April 12, 2011 That's not a constitutional crisis. It's standard convention. Standard? So it must happen all the time in Canada then, right? Quote
Smallc Posted April 12, 2011 Report Posted April 12, 2011 Standard? So it must happen all the time in Canada then, right? And Canada is, of course, the only parliamentary democracy on the planet, and definitely the only westminster parliamentary democracy on the planet. Quote
Battletoads Posted April 12, 2011 Report Posted April 12, 2011 Hello tinfoil hat ? What did he say that is crazy? Everything there is something right wingers want. Quote "You can lead a Conservative to knowledge, but you can't make him think."
TimG Posted April 12, 2011 Report Posted April 12, 2011 What did he say that is crazy? Everything there is something right wingers want.It is crazy because it presumes that Harper would piss away any opportunity for a second mandate by opening up divisive social issues. Harper has made his clear his 'right wing' agenda with a majority would be limited to any anti-crime bill and an end to the long gun registry. Quote
Evening Star Posted April 12, 2011 Report Posted April 12, 2011 Actually these don't seem wildly unlikely, if you substitute "slash funding for" for "defund": Major tax reductions for the richGlobal warming will be completely ignored Defund scientific research Defund the arts (goodbye CBC TV, CBC Radio, NFB, etc.) Quote
punked Posted April 12, 2011 Author Report Posted April 12, 2011 It isn't just me calling Iggy a Liar now on his Red book it is 70% of Canada. OTTAWA — Few people believe Liberal leader Michael Ignatieff will be able to follow through on his "Family Pack" platform promises, results of a new poll suggest. Findings of the poll, conducted by Ipsos Reid exclusively for Postmedia News and Global National, show just 30 per cent of Canadians agree he will be able to implement his plans. http://www.vancouversun.com/Minority+Canadians+believe+Ignatieff+deliver+Family+Pack+promises+poll/4597406/story.html Quote
Bryan Posted April 12, 2011 Report Posted April 12, 2011 And Canada is, of course, the only parliamentary democracy on the planet, and definitely the only westminster parliamentary democracy on the planet. Don't be obtuse. Other westminster parliamentary democracies are not Canada. Quote
Smallc Posted April 12, 2011 Report Posted April 12, 2011 Don't be obtuse. Other westminster parliamentary democracies are not Canada. How very observant. And? Canada's system is probably closer to that of the original Westminster than almost any other (besides the UK itself, of course). Quote
Bryan Posted April 12, 2011 Report Posted April 12, 2011 How very observant. And? Canada's system is probably closer to that of the original Westminster than almost any other (besides the UK itself, of course). "And", this is a Canadian Politics forum. Other countries can go ahead and do what they do, doesn't make it "standard" here. Quote
Recommended Posts
Join the conversation
You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.
Note: Your post will require moderator approval before it will be visible.