ToadBrother Posted October 10, 2015 Report Posted October 10, 2015 How does internal polling work? I've never quite figured this out. Do you mean they conduct their own polls or....? They do their own polling. By all accounts internal polling is supposed to be much more accurate. Quote
angrypenguin Posted October 10, 2015 Report Posted October 10, 2015 They do their own polling. By all accounts internal polling is supposed to be much more accurate. Wow. Why though? Do you have any more details? Like n=? How often? That sort of stuff. It seems to me that it'd be duplicate effort since phone/IVR/online polls are already conducted. Seems like a waste of party funds. I just can't seem to figure out "why" they do such a thing Thanks! Quote My views are my own and not those of my employer.
Icebound Posted October 10, 2015 Report Posted October 10, 2015 (edited) Public polling was invented in an era when it might have meant something but it no longer does..... The majority of Canadians have call-display on their telephones, and they don't answer telemarketers and that includes pollsters... so how do you possibly get a proper "scientific representation"? The famous Gallup organization in the USA has given up and is not polling for the Presidential election because they recongnize now that polling is impossible. So the only "scientific" polls that can be done are if you have some captive audience that is more-or-less guaranteed to reply. Other than a list of your own supporters, that is going to be pretty hard to come by in the general public. ... Edited October 10, 2015 by Icebound Quote
ToadBrother Posted October 10, 2015 Report Posted October 10, 2015 Wow. Why though? Do you have any more details? Like n=? How often? That sort of stuff. It seems to me that it'd be duplicate effort since phone/IVR/online polls are already conducted. Seems like a waste of party funds. I just can't seem to figure out "why" they do such a thing Thanks! The parties have detailed databases of voters and their intentions, and this can target polling much more scientist. They can ask questions like "How many Tory voters in Riding X intend to view fit another party?" and since they can produce a list of Tory supporters with phone numbers they can answer these questions. Public pollsters cannot target votes in this way, and really the intent of the two kinds of polls is different. At this stage, internal polling is about the parties figuring out where they need to put resources, build targeted messages, and even some times to pull back because there's no chance of winning in that riding. Quote
waldo Posted October 10, 2015 Report Posted October 10, 2015 The majority of Canadians have call-display on their telephones, and they don't answer telemarketers and that includes pollsters... so how do you possibly get a proper "scientific representation"? that had been a prevailing understanding... as calling cell-phones was restricted within automated polling. When done properly, pollsters rely upon manual dialing to include a proportionate cell-phone base... it is more expensive; however, that cost has come down in terms of more efficient practices and methodology changes - suggested to cost ~25% more (cell phone versus landline). Quote
Bryan Posted October 10, 2015 Report Posted October 10, 2015 You don't get it. Liberals are far ahead, and any poll that disagrees with that means there's an error. People are just remembering previous election polling. Go back and look a the polls leading up to the past several elections. Look at the numbers attributed to the CPC compared to what they really got. CPC consistently got higher numbers than most of the polls will have you believe. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_in_the_Canadian_federal_election,_2011 I think things are even worse now though, in that the polls are all over the map. Any of the three main parties could be anywhere. This may be the last election where someone mentions "polling" without laughing. Quote
angrypenguin Posted October 10, 2015 Report Posted October 10, 2015 The parties have detailed databases of voters and their intentions, and this can target polling much more scientist. They can ask questions like "How many Tory voters in Riding X intend to view fit another party?" and since they can produce a list of Tory supporters with phone numbers they can answer these questions. Public pollsters cannot target votes in this way, and really the intent of the two kinds of polls is different. At this stage, internal polling is about the parties figuring out where they need to put resources, build targeted messages, and even some times to pull back because there's no chance of winning in that riding. Thanks (to you and Icebound). This is very interesting. It makes sense to me that they can product a list of supporters that support them, but are you perhaps implying they have access to voters who are not a supporter of their party? The second paragraph definitely makes sense to me wrt allocation of resources Quote My views are my own and not those of my employer.
angrypenguin Posted October 10, 2015 Report Posted October 10, 2015 PS what's the dealio with the online polls being all over the map? https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_in_the_Canadian_federal_election,_2015Angus vs Innovative? Quote My views are my own and not those of my employer.
ToadBrother Posted October 10, 2015 Report Posted October 10, 2015 Thanks (to you and Icebound). This is very interesting. It makes sense to me that they can product a list of supporters that support them, but are you perhaps implying they have access to voters who are not a supporter of their party? The second paragraph definitely makes sense to me wrt allocation of resources Yes, they gather data on voters who do not vote for their party. That's how the Tories' CIMS database was used to misdirect Liberal voters in 2011. It is also the reason I answer no question on voter intentions from political parties. Quote
angrypenguin Posted October 10, 2015 Report Posted October 10, 2015 Yes, they gather data on voters who do not vote for their party. That's how the Tories' CIMS database was used to misdirect Liberal voters in 2011. It is also the reason I answer no question on voter intentions from political parties. But how would they have access to information regarding voters who don't vote for their party, assuming that they know who they will be voting for? Quote My views are my own and not those of my employer.
waldo Posted October 10, 2015 Report Posted October 10, 2015 PS what's the dealio with the online polls being all over the map? https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_in_the_Canadian_federal_election,_2015Angus vs Innovative? you ask a lot of questions... expecting others to do research for you? Full details of those respective polls are provided including methodology deployed. Quote
angrypenguin Posted October 10, 2015 Report Posted October 10, 2015 you ask a lot of questions... expecting others to do research for you? Full details of those respective polls are provided including methodology deployed. Isn't that the point of an IBB? To learn from each other? Or are we committing to left leaning supporters crapping on right leaning supporters and vice versa? Quote My views are my own and not those of my employer.
ToadBrother Posted October 10, 2015 Report Posted October 10, 2015 But how would they have access to information regarding voters who don't vote for their party, assuming that they know who they will be voting for? They ask. I've received calls from the Conservatives, Tories, NDP and Greens asking how I intend to vote. They do this early on and then can use it to produce sample groups of potential supporters and potential voters for other parties. That is how they can produce much better riding level predictions. Quote
waldo Posted October 10, 2015 Report Posted October 10, 2015 Isn't that the point of an IBB? To learn from each other? Or are we committing to left leaning supporters crapping on right leaning supporters and vice versa? that's the point of an IBB? Who knew! It was an observation... I sure don't notice you doing much learnin' others - your presumed information flow works both ways! Quote
angrypenguin Posted October 10, 2015 Report Posted October 10, 2015 that's the point of an IBB? Who knew! It was an observation... I sure don't notice you doing much learnin' others - your presumed information flow works both ways! Instead of judging how I want to give/learn from a conversation, perhaps you can mind your own business. Quote My views are my own and not those of my employer.
waldo Posted October 10, 2015 Report Posted October 10, 2015 Instead of judging how I want to give/learn from a conversation, perhaps you can mind your own business. my apologies... carry on learnin' Quote
ToadBrother Posted October 10, 2015 Report Posted October 10, 2015 Oh, and they also track donors to other parties, feeding that into their databases. I've heard from a friend of mine who worked on the Tory camapaign in 2008 that CIMS can produce extremely sophisticated queries on voter intentions. I would assume the Liberals and NDP have the same capabilities. Such data analysis is supposedly even more sophisticated in US elections; the Democrats built an incredible database for the 2008 elections. Quote
Smallc Posted October 10, 2015 Report Posted October 10, 2015 I went door knocking with the Manitoba NDP for a work experience project once when I was younger. Each house we came to, he'd ask me their name and how they were going to vote before we got there. They knew how almost everyone was voting. Quote
angrypenguin Posted October 10, 2015 Report Posted October 10, 2015 Oh, and they also track donors to other parties, feeding that into their databases. How in the world?.....data mining gone wild Quote My views are my own and not those of my employer.
angrypenguin Posted October 10, 2015 Report Posted October 10, 2015 I went door knocking with the Manitoba NDP for a work experience project once when I was younger. Each house we came to, he'd ask me their name and how they were going to vote before we got there. They knew how almost everyone was voting. Wait, this is a confusing statement. Who is he?, and how did they know? And if they did, why go door to door? Quote My views are my own and not those of my employer.
ToadBrother Posted October 10, 2015 Report Posted October 10, 2015 How in the world?.....data mining gone wild Welcome to the 21st century election. Quote
Smallc Posted October 11, 2015 Report Posted October 11, 2015 Wait, this is a confusing statement. Who is he?, and how did they know? And if they did, why go door to door? He is the MLA. They were shoring up support with the voters who were leaning one way or another. Quote
angrypenguin Posted October 11, 2015 Report Posted October 11, 2015 He is the MLA. They were shoring up support with the voters who were leaning one way or another. Gotcha. Thanks. By the way, what's the point of the Conservatives holding rallys? The polls all basically say the Conservative supporters remain Conservative supporters... Quote My views are my own and not those of my employer.
ToadBrother Posted October 11, 2015 Report Posted October 11, 2015 (edited) Gotcha. Thanks. By the way, what's the point of the Conservatives holding rallys? The polls all basically say the Conservative supporters remain Conservative supporters... Mainly it's to get on the local evening news and whip supporters' spirits. Edited October 11, 2015 by ToadBrother Quote
Smallc Posted October 11, 2015 Report Posted October 11, 2015 By the way, what's the point of the Conservatives holding rallys? The polls all basically say the Conservative supporters remain Conservative supporters... But will they show up to vote? That's the point. Quote
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